Climate Change Predictions Quiz

A 1°C rise in global temperature is comparable to temperatures of the last interglacial period, associated with significantly higher sea levels (6-11 meters higher than current levels).

A 2°C increase in global temperature presents problems due to worsened extreme weather events (heat waves, storms, hurricanes), altered rainfall patterns (droughts and floods), and significant, long-term sea level rise.

Consequences of climate change include: altered precipitation patterns, sea-level rise, disruptions to populations, and potential positive feedback loops (which are hard to predict).

Even if emissions stop, a rise in sea level greater than 1.5 meters is expected over the next 2,000 years.

These are positive feedback mechanisms from climate change, potentially impacting climate, but are difficult to predict and include long-term consequences.

A 3°C or greater increase in global average temperature, considered disastrous due to potential severe consequences like rainforest desertification (e.g., Amazon).

The Amazon rainforest transforming into a desert landscape, due to factors including warming, altered precipitation patterns, deforestation.

Processes where a change in temperature triggers a change in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, amplifying the initial warming.

The carbon dioxide released during the production of different sources of fuel, such as gasoline from oil, or ethanol from corn. Note, ethanol from corn has the effect of cancelling out some of its carbon emissions when the corn is grown, but it carries a larger carbon cost at the production stage and comparable emissions when burnt as compared to gasoline.

Strategies to decrease CO2 emissions, such as increasing public transportation or improving fuel efficiency in cars.

Thawing of permanently frozen ground in the Arctic regions, releasing stored carbon into the atmosphere.

A positive feedback loop occurs when a change in one component causes a further change in the same direction. Negative loops have the opposite effect.

Predicting future climate is hard due to both uncertainty in measured factors and varied ways factors interact.

Different possible paths for future CO2 emissions, based on assumptions about social, technological, and population factors.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considered four different scenarios for future CO2 emissions.

A very high CO2 emissions projection, in the past considered possible, but now deemed extremely unlikely.

A carbon emissions decreasing scenario with negative emissions, resulting from carbon capture.

Predictions of a 50% chance that a temperature will reach a given level by the end of the century.

The probability of a 1°C temperature increase at the end of the century, given the emission scenario.

The total amount of CO2 released by humans correlates with the maximum temperature that will be reached in the future.

The threshold for 0.5 probability of a 2°C average global temperature increase is 1 trillion tonnes of released CO2.

A prediction of a 4.5°C or more temperature increase is a possibility under the most extreme emission scenarios.

Increased efficiency in resource use can lead to increased consumption, negating initial savings.

Sources of energy that release less carbon dioxide (CO2) than fossil fuels, including solar, wind, hydro, nuclear, and natural gas.

Plants used as fuel sources, instead of for food.

The theoretical idea that the carbon released when burning a biofuel crop is recaptured when the crop is regrown the following year.

In practice, biofuels are not carbon-neutral due to energy used in growing, harvesting, and refining, leading to only a modest reduction in CO2 emissions or even slightly higher in some cases

A type of biofuel derived from sugarcane, resulting in a significant reduction in CO2 emissions compared to other crops due to easier refining process

Current biofuel production methods using crops and land conversion lead to significant CO2 emissions that outweigh any potential CO2 savings, making the overall impact detrimental to the environment.

Converting natural habitats or agricultural lands into biofuel production areas.

The release of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, during the production and utilization of biofuels, usually outweighing the carbon absorbed during plant growth.

Biofuels produced from corn crops in the US, which consumes a significant portion of corn production and land but does not substantially reduce emissions in the long term.

Conversion of tropical forests, particularly those on peatlands, to palm oil plantations in Indonesia releases substantial amounts of CO2 over a long period due to peat decomposition.

Hydraulic fracturing, a process of injecting water and chemicals deep underground to extract natural gas.

Exemptions from environmental regulations (Clean Air and Clean Water Acts) for gas companies in the early 2010s in the US, leading to increased gas exploration and extraction.

Natural gas has increased its role as a source of electricity generation in the US, becoming a leading contender in the past decade, displacing contributions from coal.

About half those from coal.

Increased steadily over the past 20 years.

120 times more effective than CO2, molecule for molecule.

Potentially a significant source of increased atmospheric methane, possibly half of the increase.

A significant source of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (over 10% in 2022).

A UN initiative to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.

Modified REDD program, adding conservation as a means of preventing additional carbon release.

Their impact on reducing deforestation is still under debate due to difficulties in knowing what would have happened without them.

Roughly 0.5 tonnes of carbon per couple flying round-trip between Los Angeles and Chicago, equivalent to burning a large tree.

The process of planting trees to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.