Podcast
Questions and Answers
What is one of the main reasons why predicting climate change is difficult?
What is one of the main reasons why predicting climate change is difficult?
Which factor does the IPCC NOT consider when forming its emissions scenarios?
Which factor does the IPCC NOT consider when forming its emissions scenarios?
By what year does the IPCC predict the point of passing a 2°C average global temperature increase will occur in three of its scenarios?
By what year does the IPCC predict the point of passing a 2°C average global temperature increase will occur in three of its scenarios?
In predicting emissions, what does the IPCC indicate about the highest emissions scenario?
In predicting emissions, what does the IPCC indicate about the highest emissions scenario?
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What does the emission of 1 trillion tonnes of carbon approximately correlate with?
What does the emission of 1 trillion tonnes of carbon approximately correlate with?
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What is the projected temperature rise associated with the most extreme emissions scenario by 2100?
What is the projected temperature rise associated with the most extreme emissions scenario by 2100?
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Which of the following describes the status of CO2 emissions from various regions as of 2023?
Which of the following describes the status of CO2 emissions from various regions as of 2023?
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What is the projected temperature increase by the end of the century with a 0.5 probability, based on the less dramatic scenarios?
What is the projected temperature increase by the end of the century with a 0.5 probability, based on the less dramatic scenarios?
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What is the expected temperature rise by mid-century if annual emissions cuts of 5% are implemented?
What is the expected temperature rise by mid-century if annual emissions cuts of 5% are implemented?
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What level of sea rise is predicted by the end of the century under all four emissions scenarios?
What level of sea rise is predicted by the end of the century under all four emissions scenarios?
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What is a consequence of a 2^o^C rise in temperature?
What is a consequence of a 2^o^C rise in temperature?
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If fossil fuel emissions are completely halted, what is the expected change in CO2 levels by 2100?
If fossil fuel emissions are completely halted, what is the expected change in CO2 levels by 2100?
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What could be a long-term effect of the ongoing disruptions caused by climate change?
What could be a long-term effect of the ongoing disruptions caused by climate change?
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Which of the following is a positive feedback that could occur with higher CO2 levels?
Which of the following is a positive feedback that could occur with higher CO2 levels?
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What is the consequence of a 1^o^C rise in temperature regarding extreme events?
What is the consequence of a 1^o^C rise in temperature regarding extreme events?
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What is the primary recommendation for slowing and reversing climate change?
What is the primary recommendation for slowing and reversing climate change?
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What significant environmental change is predicted to occur if the terrestrial environment transforms from being a carbon absorber to a carbon emitter?
What significant environmental change is predicted to occur if the terrestrial environment transforms from being a carbon absorber to a carbon emitter?
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According to predictions, what potential change may directly affect the Amazon rainforest?
According to predictions, what potential change may directly affect the Amazon rainforest?
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What is a potential consequence of increasing car efficiency, as mentioned in the context of CO₂ emissions?
What is a potential consequence of increasing car efficiency, as mentioned in the context of CO₂ emissions?
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What is the total CO₂ emission for gasoline manufacture according to the data provided?
What is the total CO₂ emission for gasoline manufacture according to the data provided?
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How does deforestation influence precipitation in the Amazon region?
How does deforestation influence precipitation in the Amazon region?
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What is one way to potentially mitigate CO₂ emissions as mentioned?
What is one way to potentially mitigate CO₂ emissions as mentioned?
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Which aspect of the Amazon rainforest's future does Mark Lynas emphasize?
Which aspect of the Amazon rainforest's future does Mark Lynas emphasize?
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What is a reported effect of ethanol production from corn on CO₂ emissions?
What is a reported effect of ethanol production from corn on CO₂ emissions?
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What paradox suggests that an increase in energy efficiency may lead to an overall increase in consumption?
What paradox suggests that an increase in energy efficiency may lead to an overall increase in consumption?
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Which of the following is NOT mentioned as a route to reduce emissions?
Which of the following is NOT mentioned as a route to reduce emissions?
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What is the primary reason biofuels cannot be considered truly carbon neutral?
What is the primary reason biofuels cannot be considered truly carbon neutral?
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What is a notable environmental impact of hydroelectric energy mentioned in the content?
What is a notable environmental impact of hydroelectric energy mentioned in the content?
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Which biofuel crop is noted for providing substantial CO2 reduction when used?
Which biofuel crop is noted for providing substantial CO2 reduction when used?
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How do net CO2 emissions from biofuel compare to those from oil when all factors are considered?
How do net CO2 emissions from biofuel compare to those from oil when all factors are considered?
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Which alternative energy source is considered cleaner than coal?
Which alternative energy source is considered cleaner than coal?
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What is one of the main challenges posed by the production of biofuels?
What is one of the main challenges posed by the production of biofuels?
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What is a significant environmental concern associated with using crops for biofuels?
What is a significant environmental concern associated with using crops for biofuels?
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How much of the total liquid fuel consumed in the US was provided by corn grain used for biofuels in 2019?
How much of the total liquid fuel consumed in the US was provided by corn grain used for biofuels in 2019?
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What is the primary substance used in hydraulic fracturing to extract gas?
What is the primary substance used in hydraulic fracturing to extract gas?
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What percentage of gas extraction in the US is attributed to fracking technology?
What percentage of gas extraction in the US is attributed to fracking technology?
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What effect did the 2005 Energy Policy Act have on gas companies?
What effect did the 2005 Energy Policy Act have on gas companies?
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Which biofuel option may be more successful than current methods using crops?
Which biofuel option may be more successful than current methods using crops?
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What was the contribution of natural gas to electricity generation compared to coal in 2010?
What was the contribution of natural gas to electricity generation compared to coal in 2010?
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What is one consequence of converting wildland to biofuel production?
What is one consequence of converting wildland to biofuel production?
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Which greenhouse gas is primarily responsible for trapping heat more effectively than CO2?
Which greenhouse gas is primarily responsible for trapping heat more effectively than CO2?
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What percentage of increased temperature over the past 20 years is attributed to methane?
What percentage of increased temperature over the past 20 years is attributed to methane?
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What was the main focus of the REDD program introduced by the United Nations in 2005?
What was the main focus of the REDD program introduced by the United Nations in 2005?
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How many tropical and subtropical countries had REDD+ initiatives by 2022?
How many tropical and subtropical countries had REDD+ initiatives by 2022?
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What contributes significantly to CO2 emissions besides fossil fuels?
What contributes significantly to CO2 emissions besides fossil fuels?
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How many growing trees are estimated to be needed to recapture the carbon released from two people making a round trip flight between Los Angeles and Chicago?
How many growing trees are estimated to be needed to recapture the carbon released from two people making a round trip flight between Los Angeles and Chicago?
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What does the REDD+ initiative add to the original REDD program?
What does the REDD+ initiative add to the original REDD program?
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What is a major challenge in evaluating the effectiveness of deforestation reduction initiatives like REDD+?
What is a major challenge in evaluating the effectiveness of deforestation reduction initiatives like REDD+?
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Study Notes
Predictions of Future Climate
- Predicting future climate is difficult due to many factors with both value (measuring) and structural (interaction) uncertainty
- Uncertainty exists in how climate will change due to increasing CO2 and how much more CO2 will be released
- IPCC considered four different climate scenarios (Figure 1)
- Current emissions are lower than the most extreme scenario, but higher than others
- Emissions have recently decreased in the USA and Europe, but are increasing in India and elsewhere
- 2023 saw the highest emissions to date (Figure 2)
Climate Change Scenarios
- Scenarios model CO2 emissions over the century (Figure 1)
- The high emissions scenario is now considered unlikely
- Lowest emission scenario includes carbon capture techniques
- Figure 1 shows probability predictions of temperature increases by the end of the century
Total CO2 and Temperature
- Total CO2 released by humans correlates with maximum future temperature
- IPCC estimates 1 trillion tonnes of released carbon has a 1 in 3 chance of 2°C average global temperature increase
- Three of four scenarios (Figure 1) predict passing this 2°C threshold around 2050
- Most extreme scenario has 50% probability of 4.5°C rise or more by 2100
- Other scenarios predict rises of at least 3°C, 2.5°C, and 1.8°C by 2100 (Figure 1)
Consequences of Climate Change
One Degree
- 1°C rise is similar to the last interglacial period, with sea levels 6-11m higher
- 2024 global average temperature was already 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels
- 350 ppm CO2 levels by 2100, absorbed by oceans, with temperatures returning to pre-industrial levels, is theoretically possible with immediate fossil fuel cessation
Two Degrees
- 2°C rise has already caused extreme events (e.g., heat waves)
- Global rainfall redistribution will lead to droughts in some areas and floods in others (Fig. 3)
- Sea level rise projected at ~0.3m further by the end of the century
- Additional impacts from disruptions in populations
Three Degrees
- 3°C or greater warming is considered very problematic and potentially disastrous
- Feedbacks (e.g., permafrost melt) could further exacerbate temperature increases
- Described scenarios suggest catastrophic changes (e.g., Amazon rainforest becoming desertified)
Limiting CO2 Build-up
- Conservation measures could reduce CO2 (e.g., public transport use, car efficiency)
- Table 1 shows CO2 emissions from gasoline and ethanol
- Overall, switching to renewable energy sources (solar, wind, nuclear, etc.) is crucial
Biofuels
- Renewable energy sources like biofuels, while aiming for carbon neutrality, may still have significant implications such as land use changes and CO2 emissions
- Crops such as corn and sugarcane are common biofuels
- Table 1 shows that biofuel emissions are only slightly better than fossil fuel emissions
Alternative Routes
- Carbon capture during energy generation
- Using cleaner energy sources (solar, wind, etc.)
- Increasing forest cover
- Carbon capture techniques
Cap and Trade
- Cap and trade programs are similar to programs for other gases, like SO2, with major consumers buying and selling emission credits in order to stay beneath their emissions cap.
Forests and Deforestation
- Deforestation plays a large role in CO2 emissions (contributes to a significant amount, around 10% in 2022)
- Planting trees is an important part of mitigating environmental impact, but may not be enough to negate impacts entirely.
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Description
Test your knowledge on the predictions for future climate scenarios based on CO2 emissions. This quiz covers various factors affecting climate uncertainty, emissions trends, and the implications for global temperatures by the century's end. Understand the complexities in predicting climate changes with the IPCC's assessments.
