Asteroid 2024 YR4 Impact Risk Analysis

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Questions and Answers

What was the initial probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 would impact Earth in 2032?

  • 1.3 percent (correct)
  • 0.8 percent
  • 2.7 percent
  • 1.6 percent

What is the name of the system used to observe asteroids near Earth?

  • JPL
  • Sentry
  • ESA
  • ATLAS (correct)

Which organization made the initial estimation of a 1.3 percent impact risk for asteroid 2024 YR4?

  • ESA
  • JPL
  • University of Hawaii
  • NASA (correct)

How does the Torino scale categorize the potential danger of an asteroid impact?

<p>From 1 to 10, with 1 indicating the lowest threat and 10 indicating the highest threat. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the approximate size of asteroid 2024 YR4?

<p>100 meters (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In what year did Apophis, another asteroid, have a brief period of estimated risk for impact?

<p>2004 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a major difference between the impact potential of asteroid 2024 YR4 compared to Apophis?

<p>YR4 is smaller than Apophis, which means it poses less of a threat. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the current status of the estimated impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4?

<p>It is still increasing, raising concerns about a potential impact. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the estimated size of YR4?

<p>About the same size as the Tunguska event object (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the projected impact date of YR4?

<p>December 22, 2032 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the Torino scale ranking for YR4 currently?

<p>1 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the name of the space mission that successfully altered the orbit of an asteroid by crashing into it?

<p>Double Asteroid Redirection Test (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary reason for the urgency in observing YR4 before April?

<p>To determine if it poses an impact risk (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the estimated impact zone of YR4?

<p>A swath extending from the Pacific Ocean through northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, sub-Saharan Africa, the Arabian Sea and parts of South Asia (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT a potential mitigation strategy for YR4?

<p>Atmospheric reentry (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of the year 2028 in relation to YR4?

<p>It is the year when the asteroid will once again be visible to telescopes (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the estimated time frame for designing and building a mission to deflect YR4?

<p>3-5 years (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary concern if YR4's threat does not dissipate as expected?

<p>The possibility of widespread destruction (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following telescopes are mentioned as potential instruments to observe YR4?

<p>James Webb Space Telescope (B), Keck Observatory (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the main takeaway from the passage regarding the global response to potentially threatening asteroids?

<p>It is essential to collaborate and share resources among scientists and agencies (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of these is a key reason for the urgency to create an asteroid deflection mission?

<p>The asteroid is on a collision course with Earth, but the impact is years away (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of historical observations of YR4?

<p>They can help confirm or dismiss the risk of impact (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of these is NOT mentioned as an organization involved in the response to YR4?

<p>European Space Agency (ESA) (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the likely reason why the author mentions the Tunguska event?

<p>To illustrate the potential destructive power of an asteroid impact (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

2024 YR4

An asteroid spotted near Earth in December 2023, estimated between 40-100 meters.

Impact risk

The probability of an asteroid colliding with Earth, measured in percentages.

Torino scale

A scale ranking the threat level of asteroids to Earth from 1 to 10.

Sentry

NASA's service that monitors potential asteroid impacts worldwide.

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Apophis

An asteroid previously estimated to have a 2.7% chance of impacting Earth in 2029.

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Planetary defense

Strategies used to detect and mitigate potential asteroid threats to Earth.

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Near-Earth Object (NEO)

An asteroid or comet that comes within 1.3 astronomical units of Earth.

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Probability of missing

The certainty that an asteroid will not collide with Earth, often expressed as a percentage.

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YR4

A stony asteroid projected to impact Earth on December 22, 2032.

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10-megaton bomb impact

Impact of YR4 likened to a large explosive, causing widespread destruction.

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Tunguska event

A 1908 explosion in Siberia from a meteoroid that flattened forests.

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Chelyabinsk meteor

A 2013 meteor that exploded over Russia, injuring hundreds.

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Impact probability

The likelihood of an asteroid hitting Earth.

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Deflection mission

A potential strategy to redirect an asteroid's path.

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NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test

A mission that successfully changed an asteroid's orbit by impact.

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Evacuation measures

Plans to remove people from the impact zone if predictions show risk.

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Observation timeframe

Limited period to monitor YR4 before it becomes invisible.

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Impact corridor

Geographical area where YR4 could potentially strike Earth.

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Planetary scientists

Researchers studying planets and objects in space, like YR4.

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Astronomical surveys

Long-term studies conducted to track celestial objects, including asteroids.

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Mitigation strategy

Plans devised to reduce potential damage from an impact.

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International collaborations

Efforts between global agencies to monitor and protect against asteroid impacts.

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Study Notes

Asteroid 2024 YR4 and Impact Risk

  • Asteroid 2024 YR4, approximately 40-100 meters in size, was discovered near Earth on December 27, 2024.
  • Its closest approach to Earth was two days prior, at 800,000 kilometers (roughly twice the distance to the moon).
  • Its proximity and size, while not uncommon, warranted further observation due to potential future impact risk.

Increased Impact Risk Assessment

  • NASA's Sentry system significantly upgraded the risk of YR4 impacting Earth.
  • The risk was assessed at 1.3%, later increasing to 1.6%, increasing the Torino scale risk to level 3.
  • This is the highest impact risk for an asteroid since Apophis in 2004.

Probability of Impact and Mitigation

  • The probability of an impact is still low (99% chance of missing).
  • Refining the asteroid's orbit and trajectory is crucial for accurate risk assessment.
  • The chance of impact may rise based on new observations and calculations.
  • If a collision occurs, regional devastation is predicted, similar to a 10-megaton bomb.

Possible Impact Nature

  • YR4 is likely a stony asteroid, not metal-rich, indicating upper atmospheric explosion like the Tunguska event (1908) or the Chelyabinsk event (2013).
  • A potential impact corridor stretches from the Pacific Ocean through parts of South America, Africa and Asia.

Observation Challenges and Mitigation Strategies

  • Finding historical observations of YR4 is vital to determine its trajectory and its future path.
  • The next visible opportunity to study YR4 is in 2028.
  • Potential mitigation strategies include deflection missions (e.g., Double Asteroid Redirection Test) or evacuation measures within impact areas.
  • Time is of the essence; deflection strategy requires years of planning and building.

Global Effort and Optimism

  • International collaboration of space agencies is crucial in addressing such potential threats.
  • Improvements in asteroid detection technology have enabled more accurate tracking and risk assessment
  • Decades of global efforts are focused on identifying and assessing asteroid threats.
  • Optimism arises from the proactive global response to YR4.

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