Article Asteroid 2024 YR4 Impact Analysis
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Questions and Answers

A ______ in Chile detected a faint point of light.

telescope

The detected light didn't correspond to any known ______, comets, or asteroids.

stars

The object was officially designated ______.

2024 YR4

There is a small chance the ______ might hit Earth in 2032.

<p>asteroid</p> Signup and view all the answers

The probability of impact has fluctuated in recent days, but as of Thursday, NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies estimated a ______ chance of an impact with Earth in 2032.

<p>1.9</p> Signup and view all the answers

ESA estimated the probability of impact at ______ percent.

<p>1.8</p> Signup and view all the answers

The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 to 300 ______ wide.

<p>feet</p> Signup and view all the answers

The ______ that broke apart over Chelyabinsk, Russia, in 2013 was about 20 meters wide.

<p>meteor</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a 2019 poll, 68 percent of Americans thought it was very important for the space program to monitor ______, comets, or other objects from space.

<p>asteroids</p> Signup and view all the answers

About a quarter of those polled placed importance on returning astronauts to the Moon or sending people to ______.

<p>Mars</p> Signup and view all the answers

The cost of monitoring and deflecting asteroids is modest compared to the expensive undertakings of human missions to the ______ and Mars.

<p>Moon</p> Signup and view all the answers

Whatever happens in 2032, we're not at risk of ______.

<p>extinction</p> Signup and view all the answers

Most Americans think we should have a ______ program to address various space threats.

<p>space</p> Signup and view all the answers

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is rated at Level ______ on the scale.

<p>3</p> Signup and view all the answers

The asteroid Apophis reached a Level ______ rating in 2004.

<p>4</p> Signup and view all the answers

An asteroid the size of 2024 YR4 could cause blast damage up to ______ miles from the impact location.

<p>30</p> Signup and view all the answers

The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) was established in response to the ______ event.

<p>Chelyabinsk</p> Signup and view all the answers

Officials activate the IAWN when an asteroid over ______ meters has a greater than 1 percent chance of striking Earth.

<p>10</p> Signup and view all the answers

Determining the asteroid's exact size will require deep space ______ observations.

<p>radar</p> Signup and view all the answers

Asteroid 2024 YR4 follows an elliptical path around the ______.

<p>Sun</p> Signup and view all the answers

Currently, the object is moving away from Earth in almost a straight ______.

<p>line</p> Signup and view all the answers

The group known as SMPAG coordinates planning among representatives from space ______.

<p>agencies</p> Signup and view all the answers

NASA's DART mission demonstrated the ability to alter an asteroid's ______.

<p>orbit</p> Signup and view all the answers

Using a nuclear warhead could potentially break an asteroid into ______ pieces.

<p>smaller</p> Signup and view all the answers

The risk corridor for 2024 YR4 extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean to northern ______.

<p>South America</p> Signup and view all the answers

An impending impact could devastate an area the size of a large ______.

<p>city</p> Signup and view all the answers

If the asteroid remains a risk, it may be observable again in ______.

<p>2028</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

2024 YR4

An asteroid detected by telescopes, projected to pass close to Earth in 2028 and 2032.

ASTRONOMERS

Scientists who study astronomical objects and phenomena.

ATLAS

Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System, a NASA project for tracking potential asteroid collisions.

Impact Probability

The likelihood of an asteroid colliding with Earth, expressed as a percentage.

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1.9% Chance

Estimated likelihood of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on December 22, 2032.

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Torino Scale

A scale used to measure the risk of asteroid impacts.

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The Tunguska Event

A 1908 explosion caused by an asteroid, devastating Siberian forest.

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Cone of Uncertainty

A visual representation of an asteroid's potential impact area as its trajectory is refined.

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Asteroid Monitoring

The process of detecting and tracking asteroids that could impact Earth.

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Public Opinion on Space Program

In 2019, 68% of Americans supported monitoring space objects for safety.

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NASA's Focus

NASA's commitment to monitor threats from space rather than expensive human missions.

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Human Missions

Missions sending astronauts to the Moon or Mars, deemed less urgent by some.

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Cost of Space Programs

Monitoring asteroids is cheaper than manned lunar or Martian missions.

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Asteroid 2024 YR4

An asteroid currently rated at Level 3 for impact risk, meriting close observation.

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IAWN

International Asteroid Warning Network, monitors asteroids larger than 10 meters for potential Earth impact.

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Level 3 rating

Indicates significant attention needed for Asteroid 2024 YR4 due to potential danger.

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Apophis

An asteroid that reached Level 4 in 2004 but was later determined not to be an impact threat in 2029.

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Chelyabinsk event

A 2013 meteor explosion in Russia that emphasized the need for asteroid monitoring.

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Monte Carlo simulation

A mathematical modeling technique used to predict asteroid paths based on random sampling.

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Orbital path

The trajectory followed by an asteroid around the Sun, can be elliptical.

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Deflection mission

A planned intervention to alter the trajectory of a threatening asteroid.

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DART mission

NASA's 2022 experiment that successfully altered an asteroid's orbit.

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Risk corridor

Geographic area that could be affected by an asteroid impact, extends from oceans to continents.

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Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG)

An international board that coordinates on asteroid risk management among space agencies.

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Close approach

The distance at which an asteroid comes near Earth, prompting intensive monitoring.

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Evacuation plans

Prepared strategies for relocating people if an asteroid impact is imminent.

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X-ray radiation

High-energy radiation that can potentially alter an asteroid's trajectory through a nuclear explosion.

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Study Notes

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Potential Impact in 2032

  • Astronomers detected a new asteroid, 2024 YR4, in December 2024. It's orbit will bring it close to Earth in 2028 and 2032.

  • Initial estimations placed the probability of impact in 2032 at 1.9% (NASA) and 1.8% (ESA). This is roughly a 1 in 53 chance.

  • The probability fluctuates, and is likely to drop to zero as more observations are made.

  • The asteroid is estimated to be 130-300 feet wide, large enough to cause localized devastation.

  • The Torino scale for asteroid impact risk measures 2024 YR4 at Level 3. This means close attention is warranted from astronomers, the public, and government officials.

Orbit and Trajectory

  • 2024 YR4's elliptical orbit brings it inside Earth's orbit close to the sun, then into the outer asteroid belt.

  • Currently moving away from Earth in a near straight line, which makes determining its orbit more challenging.

  • More observations are needed for precise trajectory predictions.

  • The risk corridor extends from the eastern Pacific to South Asia, impacting various locations.

  • Deep space radar observations or a spacecraft mission will be needed to determine its exact size more accurately.

Impact Risk and Response

  • The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) is activated when an asteroid larger than 10 meters has over 1% probability to strike in 20 years.

  • Officials activated IAWN regarding 2024 YR4 because its potential impact chance aligns with the level of alert.

  • Asteroid deflection missions are possible, as shown by NASA's DART test in 2022.

  • The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) will re-evaluate the risk and possible responses within a few months.

  • NASA's DART test successfully impacted and slightly altered an asteroid's orbit. This means it is possible to push an asteroid out of collision course.

  • Deflection missions are more effective when conducted far ahead of a collision.

  • A nuclear option is discussed as a way to steer or break the asteroid but further research is needed for this method.

  • Evacuation plans could also be put in place to help regions in possible impact zones.

Mitigation and Importance

  • A 2019 poll revealed strong public support for asteroid monitoring efforts.

  • Asteroid monitoring is a relatively cost-effective investment for potential planet protection compared to space missions.

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Description

Explore the potential impact of asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024. With an estimated impact probability of 1.9% in 2032, this quiz covers its size, orbit, and the necessary attention it requires based on the Torino scale. Test your knowledge on asteroids and their tracking methods!

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