Academic Research and Scientific Method

• Academic research is peer-reviewed, meaning other experts offer comments and a vote on its publication.
• Its published in respected academic journals.
• Academic research aims to improve understanding and answer questions, ideally without pushing an agenda.

Typical Structure of Academic Research

• Abstract
• Introduction
• Literature Review
• Theory/Hypotheses
• Results
• Implications/Conclusion

Stokes (2015)

• It covers the political impacts of wind turbine building in Ontario, Canada.
• Easy to follow with a conventional research structure.
• Results and significance are clearly stated.
• Has an interesting subject, findings, and methods.

Science

• Saint Paul- "Test everything; keep what is good."
• Science involves method, culture, and a continuous pursuit of knowledge.

Myths About Science

• Science doesn't prove things or lead to verifiable truth.
• Science isn't limited to experimental manipulation.
• Science and scientists aren't always value-neutral.
• Politics can be examined scientifically.

The Scientific Method

• It’s the process by which scientists understand the world.
• The scientific method relies on a provisional understanding and involves five steps.
• Question
• Theory/Model
• Hypotheses/Implications
• Observe/Test Hypothesis
• Evaluation/Results

Step 1: The Question

• This step seeks to explain why something happens.
• Example: rustling and squeaking noises from around a dryer.

Step 2: Theory

• A theory is a consistent set of statements explaining observed phenomena.
• Example: rustling and squeaking noises indicate mice in the bathroom.

Step 3: Hypothesis

• Predicts what will happen if a certain action is taken.
• Hypotheses have to be falsifiable.
• Example: If more rat poison is added, there will be an increase in dead mice.

Step 4: The Test

• Critical tests help distinguish between competing explanations of phenomena.
• Assesses the relationship between variables.
• Example: Rat poison is put down to see if dead mice or a bad smell appear.

Step 5: Results

• Determine the impact of an action.
• Example: No dead mice or bad smells are observed, but the noises continue.
• In this case, the hypothesis is proven false.
• Alternative: the mice are in the walls or dryer vent and an implication is to contact the landlord.

Argument

• A set of logically connected statements are often based on a premise and lead to a conclusion.
• A valid argument accepts the premise and the solution.
• An invalid argument accepts the premise but not the solution.

Argument Structures and Conditions

• Deductive Structure: bottom-up. Detective work, taking clues and building a picture.
• Inductive Structure: top-down. Teaching history, explaining parts from known events.
• Necessary Condition: x must happen for y to occur. Owning food to eliminate hunger.
• Sufficient Condition: x happening will cause y. Eating food eliminates hunger.

The Comparative Method

• A systemic search for the causes of political phenomena using two main methods.
• Method of Agreement: cases are alike in a variable of interest. (Example: AZ, NC, WI are swing states).
• Method of Disagreement: cases are different in a variable of interest. (Example: VA, NC, SC elect diff. numbers of statewide offices).

Politics

• Politics potentially concerns anything related to the state (country).
• Politics includes votes and debates on bills, peace talks, and armed conflict.
• Elections and UN meetings are also examples of politics.

Politics as Conflict Resolution

• Politics does not have to involve violent conflict.
• Getting a bill passed or negotiating stadium placement are examples.
• Crick: Politics is the solution to the problem of order, not inherently conflictual.
• Heywood: Politics attempts to reconcile rival interests. Is politics a solution or a process?

Politics as Conflict

• Conflict can be a constructive force.
• Tense negotiations leading to a good outcome exemplify this.
• Mouffe: Freedom requires allowing conflict and allocating arenas for it, like legislatures or peaceful protests

Politics as Exercise of Power

• Lasswell: politics determines who gets what, when, and how.
• Power involves influencing a political agenda and framing an issue.
• This definition can be limited or expansive.

Politics as a Social and Public Activity

• Heywood: Politics is a dialogue.
• Example: Parties negotiating a bill's contents.
• This definition questions what activities are political.

Politics as Dependent on Context and Interpretation

• What is political varies based on perception.
• Owning a gun and abortion are viewed differently by different people.
• Perception and intent play a role in defining political action.

Responses to Political Change

• Exit: accept change and adapt behavior.
• Voice: take action to change the environment back by complaining.
• Loyalty: accept change and make no changes

Rational Choice Theory

• People make rational choices based on presented options.
• It raises the question of why people in similar situations reach different conclusions.
• Often comes down to cost/benefit analysis.
• The perceived benefit can vary from person to person.

Why Do People/Groups Make Irrational Decisions?

-Rationality is subjective (eating at Pizza Hut). -Individual rationality doesn't equate group rationality (Crab-Barrel effect). -Imperfect information (misjudging ice thickness).

Game Theory

• A tool for analyzing strategic situations.
• Strategic Situation: one actor's choices depend on others.
• Game: ability to achieve goals depends on other actors.
• Payoffs: how players value possible outcomes.

Types of Games

• Extensive Form Game: players make choices sequentially. (Ex. trade deal negotiations).
• Strategic Form Game: players make choices simultaneously. (Ex. voting for a candidate).

Points Within Extensive Form Games

• Choice Node: point where a player takes an action.
• Initial Node: starting point/choice.
• Branches: action outcome possibilities.
• Game Tree: entire specification of a game and its outcomes.

Other Extensive Form Game Concepts

• Subgame Perfect Equilibrium (SPE): actors make best choices at every choice node.
• Found through backward induction.
• Backward Induction: determining the optimal course by working backward from the desired outcome.

The Modern State

• States: control territory through coercion and legitimate force; monopoly on violence (195 internationally recognized)
• Nations: people sharing common identity, not requiring statehood.
• Nation-State: A state where one nation is dominant in every sense.

Sort-of States:

• Stateless Nations: unified people without a country (Kurds).
• Diasporic Nations: scattered group with much in common (Roma).
• Failed States: cannot control inhabitants (Somalia).
• Ethnostate: dominated by one ethnicity (Japan.)

State Failure

• More common and increasing due to fragility, discord, war, etc.
• Somalia: perpetual conflict since 1991, clan overthrow, UN mission failure.
• Syria: notable failed state, became unstable during the Arab Spring because of the civil war.

Current Events in Syria

• Assad fled the country, rebel groups took control of the entire territory.
• Ahmed al-Sharaa assumed power and focused on new government institutions.

Review of State

• They control territory through coercion and a monopoly on violence
• Often form after periods of intense turmoil

Now For More Game Theory

• Strategy: Choices made by a player when there's a choice to be made.
• Payoff Matrix: Shows strategies and payoffs to players in a game.
• Preference and Ordinal Payoffs: How players rank outcomes
• Cardinal Payoffs: How much a player prefers each of their ranked outcomes

What Are The Best Moves In Game Theory?

• Nash Equilibrium: Strategies where no player wants to alter their plan
• Best Replies: The "best" choices a player can make for yield highest payoff
• Dominant Strategy: When a player has the best reply to all strategies of others

The State Of Nature

• Situations with no state/government authority.
• Before states people face: violence, no communal services, and unhappiness

What Would A State of Nature Look Like?

• "Nasty, brutish, and short"(Hobbes).
• No rights.
• Relatively chill (Rosseau),
• Primitive communism (Marx),
• People taught not to harm another (Locke),

Thomas Hobbes: The Leviathan

• Written during the English Civil War.
• Revolves around the meaning of things causing the conflict.
• State of nature is a state of conflict.
• Humans rarely in state of nature, its states in relation to each other.
• Created 19 "laws of nature".
• Leviathan chosen to lead the society.

How Do We Leave the State of Nature?

• First sign- healed, broken bones.
• Social Contract- Implicit agreement by people to create and empower a state.
• Citizens now bound by a code to citizens and to their state.
• Civil rights are created and protected by the state.

Contrarian View of the State

• Social contract entered into, states give security, citizens give obedience.

Predatory View of the State

• States can threaten security and exploit citizens.

Important Terms: Government

• The set of people on behalf of a state at a given time

Important Terms: Regime

• A set of rules, norms, and institutions that determine the organization of the government and major decisions

More Terms: Concept

• Mental category that captures the meaning of things

More Terms: Measure

• Quantification of a concept that you're interested in

More Terms: Operationalization

• Turning abstract concepts into concrete/observable measures

Dominant Views of Democracy

• Both from Robert Dahl
• Substantive View: Classifies regimes by regards to their outcomes
• Procedural View: Classifies regards to their institutions and procedures

Background

• Democracy is globally well regarded
• The value of democracy is reflected in Nation's names

Ancient Greece

• 500 voting age males rotate lawmaking power as a direct democracy
• Plato- Political participation should be based on expertise, otherwise we get oligarchy and mob rule Aristotle- Good and bad forms of all governance exist. Democracy is the most risky

In-Between

• After Greece, democracy was looked down upon
• Machiavelli- Dictatorship is necessary if legal structures are a barrier to safety (temporarily at least)
• French Revolution- Efforts resulted in lots of beheading and scared autocrats in Europe.

Current State of Democracy

• Mainly representative or republican
• Elect representatives
• Universal suffrage should be for those of voting age

Current Opposition to Democracy

• Average people don't know how government works so systems still persist
• Hyperpluralism has so many interests in government making it hard to get anything done

Review

• Dahl - Outcomes based, institutions and procedure based
• 2 Dimensions - Contestation and inclusion

Types of Measures

• Continuous obs - Can take any value in a given range (Height)
• Dichotomous obs - Only one of two values (Tall or Short)
• Ordinal obs - Ordered along some dimension (ordering heights)
• Interval obs - Placed on a scale to determine how the value related to others

Assessing Measures

• Validity - It measures what it is supposed to measure
• Reliability - Produces the same value for the same situation repeatedly
• Replicability - Someone else can use the measure and get the same result

The Big 3 Measures of Democracy

• Measuring the democracy is a big deal for pro-democracy groups
• 3 Big Measures: Freedom House, D.D., Polity IV

Freedom House

• Not technically a measure, imitates on by measuring associated concepts
• Two Dimensions - Political and Civil Rights

Democracy-Dictatorship

• Countries must meet these 4 requirements:

1. The chief executive elected
2. The legislature elected
3. More than one party competes in elections
4. A transition of power under the current electoral rules has happened

Polity IV

• More reliable and valid
• Scale of Negative 10 to Positive 10
• 5 Determinations: Competitiveness, Openness Exec recruitment, Constraints on the executive, Revolution and competition

Current Events : Rwanda vs DRC

• The Rwanda/DRC started with the 90s genocide
• Rwanda started helping their expats due to confllicts

Economic Determinants

• Pzeworski- Polish and American Political Scientist
• Democracy endures only if it is self enforcing

Modernization Theory

• All societies pass through the same historical stages of economic development
• Changing from a traditional to mature economy requires change from dictatorship to democracy

Economic Sectors

• Traditional sector agriculture
• Modern sector manufacturing and services
• 3 Parts: Primary- agriculture, Secondary- manufacturing, Tertiary-

How Much Money Talking About?

• Sovereign Debt are the debt owed by government
• GDP and Gross Domestic Product are the value of all goods and services that are produced in a country

Dictatorship Prospects

• What if your country was considering to switch would you support a rich person?
• Democracy is safer bet than gambling for position

Commitment Problems

• When a actor makes a promise they may have an incentive to break
• Three main ways to counter this are contracts, repeated interaction, and power distributing institutions

Political Resource Curse

• Countries heavily reliant on natural resources are unlikely to democratize.
• Prone to corruption, poor governance, and civil war

Resource Curse Explanations

• Demand side (Resource $ reduces the need
• Supply Side (Resource $ enable dictators )

Foreign Aid

• This can include Money, Food, or Technology
• Could be from government or intergovernmental organizations
• Pessimists = hurts odds and optimists = helps odds

Conditions for Foreign Aid to Improve Democratization

1. Recipient country is independent
2. Aid donors want to promote Democratic reform in recipient country
3. Can credibly threaten to withhold aid if demands aren't met Still and elite can found ways around this

Inequality

• Usually seen as a threat to autocracy in democracy
• Democracy gives people a sense of economic safety, democracy has credibility and stability

Cultural Determinants

• Culture is something inherited and fixed since primordial times.
• People decide what where we are, could convert faith's or with different groups

Measuring Culture

• Surveys access culture and democratic values
• Social Desirability, people tend to overreport "good" behavior

Historical Views

• Very Christian Centric, seen that would be better for Democracy

Cultural Modernization Theory

• Socioeconomic development doesn't directly cause Democratization, but gives cultural changes
• Civic culture gives attitudes that will promote Democracy

Bowling Alone

• Written by Robert Putnam who argued that in-person social interaction in the US has eliminated a lot of our capital
• Contributing factors are Work, life, suburbanization, electronic media, generational effects

Western Culture

• Heavily democracy favoring, promoting individual liberties and more regular practices

Cultural Proximity

• From Ingles Heart
• Countries and 2 Dimension

Most Secular/Survival

• Most Secular/Self Expression (Protestant Europe)
• Most Traditional/Survival (African- Islamic (MENA countries))

Major Bird Flu

• Major bird Flu outbreak happening in the US H5N1
• Can be in Birds/Livestock and Humans
• Only 1 Death recorded since Last Week and Most People are asymptomatic

History of Democratization and Independence

• Currently in 3rd way of Democratization
• Kicked off in portugal that made counter Democratic

Types of Democratization

• Complete information of Players
• Each Player knows or what

Key Hurdle Of Collective Action

• People have little to continue the profession

Types of Transition

• Bottoms Up
• Overthrow a regime in Revolution

Revolutionary Cascase

• Participation - US/EU/Syria
• Top Down - Introduce Politics

Policy Transformation- Transition Didn't, Chains

• At least Several hundred

Previous Waves of Democratization

• More industrial lives between WWII
• Had waves of anti-democratization

Revolutionary

• Mass resulted the eventual Germany

Background

• USSR maintain
• The build-Up of signatori

What did this mean for Germany

• Germany's sorted crossing from Hungary
• Honnecker actually told soldier to fill on the protestors
• Minor reforms were implemented

Idea

• Revolutionary threshold
• Was thought it have a higher revolutionary threshold
• Lead to the Iron Curtain FAlling

Case two Poland

• Ruling community rigg mostly
• Soon alter real democracy was implemented

Moral Story Democractic transition

• Democratization tends to flow
• repression could work
• Varieties of Dictatorships
• German federal election

What do dictators need to?

• Still have to keep people have in their countries
• Dilemma- Repressing environment creates

Selectorate Theory

• Selectorate- select a leader
• Win-support

Power kept within a line

• Relatives for a long term for dictator
• Current- Saudi Arabela

Military Dictators

• Juntas-Saviors-Senstive