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What is the target for global CO2 emissions as per the IEA for the year 2030?

  • 30 Gt
  • 15 Gt
  • 20 Gt
  • 24 Gt (correct)

    • The Net Zero Emission by 2050 scenario aims for global energy sector to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2040.

    False

    By what year does the IEA project that emissions need to fall to net zero?

    2050

    The scenario that includes all climate commitments made by governments worldwide is known as the ______.

    <p>Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the energy scenarios with their respective temperature outcomes:

    <p>Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) = +3/+2.5°C by 2100 Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) = +2/+1.7°C by 2100 Net Zero Emission by 2050 (NZE) = +1.5/+1.4°C by 2100</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the projected total energy supply in the NZE scenario for the year 2030?

    <p>632 EJ</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The STEPS scenario meets the climate objectives set by the IEA.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the anticipated price of oil per barrel in the STEPS scenario?

    <p>$83</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Emissions must drop by more than ______% per year starting from 2022.

    <p>5</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the total energy supply projected in the APS scenario for the year 2030?

    <p>541 EJ</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which region contributes to 60% of the world's oil supply?

    <p>OECD North America</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The top 20 oil fields contribute a total of more than 50% to global oil production.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Name the oil field that contributes the largest percentage to global oil production.

    <p>Ghawar</p> Signup and view all the answers

    About 60% of the world's oil supplies remain dependent on output from _____ big, old super-giant and giant oil fields.

    <p>300</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the projected price of oil per barrel in 2050 according to the IEA Net Zero Scenario?

    <p>$25/barrel</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the following oil fields with their contribution to global oil production:

    <p>Ghawar = 17% Cantarell = 6% Samotlor = 2% Safaniyah = 1%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Coal production in the US is expected to decrease by 91% by 2050.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of these oil fields contributes the least to global oil production?

    <p>Safaniyah</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Africa is a significant contributor to the world's oil supply.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What percentage of fossil fuel use remains in 2050 according to the projections?

    <p>18%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the total number of oil fields worldwide?

    <p>70,000</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In 2050, the price range for coal global excluding the US is projected to be between $____ and $____ per tonne.

    <p>43, 49</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Global upstream oil and gas investments are _____ below 2014 in real terms.

    <p>47%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the energy sources to their projected percentage change from 2022 to 2050:

    <p>Solar = 1867% Wind = 950% Hydro = 88% Coal = -91%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which oil field's output has declined sharply since 2012?

    <p>All of the above</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following energy sources is projected to change by 1066% from 2022 to 2050?

    <p>Other Renewables</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The energy transition and COVID led to increases in oil exploration and production capital expenditure (E&P CAPEX).

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Natural gas in the US is expected to decrease by 77% by 2050.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    According to the projections, which energy source experiences a -100% change in traditional use of biomass by 2050?

    <p>Traditional use of biomass</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What percentage of global oil demand is represented by '1,170'?

    <p>approximately 12%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The _____ oil field is known for contributing 78% to global oil production.

    <p>Samotlor</p> Signup and view all the answers

    By 2050, the percentage change of bioenergy usage is projected to be ______%.

    <p>139</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the oil field players with their respective countries:

    <p>Chevron = USA Gazprom = Russia Sinopec = China Eni = Italy</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the projected price of oil in the year 2050?

    <p>$60/barrel</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What will be the percentage of abated fossil fuels by 2050?

    <p>73%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the Announced Pledges Scenario, fossil fuel demand is expected to increase by 2050.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What percentage of energy sources will be clean energy (renewables and nuclear) by 2050?

    <p>63%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The demand for coal is expected to drop by more than ____ by 2050.

    <p>70%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the energy sources with their projected change by 2050:

    <p>Coal = -73% Oil = -45% Natural Gas = -42% Nuclear = 103%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which energy source is expected to see the greatest increase by 2050?

    <p>Nuclear</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In 2050, more than a third of fossil fuels will be classified as abated or for non-energy use.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What will happen to total energy demand in the Announced Pledges Scenario?

    <p>It will flatten.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Renewables are expected to increase by ____% from the current levels by 2050.

    <p>409%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What contributes to the flattening of total energy demand in the Announced Pledges Scenario?

    <p>Improved efficiency</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Electric vehicles and heat pumps are less efficient than fossil fuel-based alternatives.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which scenario predicts that electricity will become the global 'star' of energy sources?

    <p>Net Zero Emissions Scenario</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the projected share of fossil fuels in the energy mix by 2050?

    <p>18%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The share of solar PV capacity is expected to remain constant by 2050.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The share of fossil fuels in the Announced Pledges Scenario is reduced compared to ____.

    <p>STEPS</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What year is targeted for achieving Carbon Neutrality in the European Green Deal?

    <p>2050</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the following energy sources with their expected prices in 2050:

    <p>Oil = $60/barrel Natural Gas excl. US = $5.4-6.3/MBtu Coal global excl. US = $53-62/tonne Coal US = $26/tonne</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the NZE 2050 Scenario, the primary energy is expected to decline at a rate of __% per year to 2030.

    <p>1.2</p> Signup and view all the answers

    By how much is global electricity demand expected to change between 2021 and 2050 in the NZE scenario?

    <p>Almost tripling</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The Inflation Reduction Act in the USA is expected to decrease carbon emissions by less than 50%.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the target year set by California to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles?

    <p>2035</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The USA aims for a target of __% carbon-free electricity by 2035 nationwide.

    <p>100</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which fossil fuel is projected to see a significant exit according to the USA's energy transition?

    <p>Coal</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Renewables sectors are expected to provide zero emissions credits at a national level.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the following years with their respective targets in energy transition goals:

    <p>2030 = 50% of new car registrations projected to be electric 2035 = Phase out ICE vehicles in California 2050 = Carbon Neutrality target for the EU</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the expected increase in wind capacity by 2050?

    <p>11-fold</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The global final energy in 2022 was __ EJ.

    <p>439</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which scenario reflects the Net Zero Emission objectives?

    <p>NZE 2050 Scenario</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the expected lifetime of wind energy sources?

    <p>25 years</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Nuclear energy has a CO2 emission cost of $0/MWh.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the capacity factor range for geothermal energy?

    <p>80 - 85%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The capital expenditure (CAPEX) range for combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) is $______ M$/MW.

    <p>0.5 - 1</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the following energy types with their corresponding fuel costs ($/MWh):

    <p>Nuclear = $9 - $30 Solar PV = $0 Wind = $0 Natural Gas (CCGT) = $46</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which energy source has the highest capital expenditure (CAPEX) range?

    <p>Nuclear</p> Signup and view all the answers

    All solar energy types have a fuel cost of $0/MWh.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the CO2 emission cost ($/MWh) for hydro power?

    <p>0</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The operation and maintenance (O&M) cost for offshore wind energy is between $______ and $______ per MWh.

    <p>10, 20</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the fuel cost range for biopower?

    <p>$14 - $43</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Solar energy systems use significant amounts of fuel during their operation.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the capacity factor for concentrated solar power (CSP)?

    <p>34%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The capacity factor for natural gas (OCGT) is expected to be between ______ and ______.

    <p>0%, 15%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which energy source listed has the longest expected lifetime?

    <p>Hydro Power</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the following energy sources with their CAPEX ranges.

    <p>Wind Onshore = $1.2 - $1.7 M$/MW Natural Gas CCGT = $0.5 - $1 M$/MW Solar PV = $0.7 - $1 M$/MW Biopower = $1.2 - $4.9 M$/MW</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The CO2 emissions for geothermal energy are typically high.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Study Notes

    Oil Industry Facing Decline?

    • The presentation focuses on the future of the oil industry in the face of climate change.
    • The agenda outlines key topics, such as life cycle of an oil field, reserves, supply and demand, pricing mechanisms and the oil players' response to the energy transition.
    • The presentation examines the life cycle of a conventional oil field, from exploration through delineation, development, plateau, enhanced recovery, and abandonment.
    • Illustrative data for the life cycle of an oil field shows declining production over time. Different phases like exploration, delineation and development require different amount of investment, while a build-up phase marks the plateau of production, followed by enhanced recovery and decline.
    • The presentation differentiates between the life cycle of conventional oil fields from the life cycle of oil shale formations, presenting the declining production profile of a shale oil field over time.
    • Yearly declines presented in the presentation vary from field to field, and are significantly higher during the early years of production.
    • Data on proved oil reserves reveals that the distribution across regions has shifted over time. The Middle East consistently holds the largest share, although other regions have also experienced changes.
    • The current level of global oil discoveries is significantly lower than in the past.
    • OPEC holds the largest share of global conventional oil reserves in 2020.
    • Oil reserves levels, production levels, refining margins and currency exchange rates (forex) are considered key metrics for an oil & gas company.
    • Oil demand by sector and scenario projection indicates that oil demand could drop to ~80% in the NZE by 2050. Different sectors like road transport, petrochemicals, buildings and other industries will exhibit different reduction rates in oil demand.
    • Global oil demand by sector and annual average change by region shows fluctuating demand trends.
    • Post-Covid, oil demand growth has lost momentum due to government spending in clean energy and global central bank policies.

    Reserves Definitions

    • Proven reserves are recoverable from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. These reserves have a 90% confidence level.
    • Probable reserves have a 50% probability of being recoverable.
    • Possible reserves are recoverable with a 10% confidence or P10.

    Oil Price Formation Mechanism

    • OPEC adjusting volumes, and swing suppliers.
    • OECD commercial stocks and geopolitical factors.
    • Non-OPEC players.
    • Financial markets' fluctuations (market speculation).

    Oil Players Facing Energy Transition

    • Key players in the oil industry, including National Oil Companies (NOCs) and International Oil Companies (IOCs), are playing significant roles by facing the energy transition.
    • NOCs focus on long-standing, government-owned, cradle-to-grave operations.
    • IOCs tend to be listed companies with robust financial power.

    The Oil Supply Structure (i)

    • Most of the world's oil supplies are dependent on a small portion (approximately 300) of super-giant and giant oil fields. This proportion accounts for about 60% of global oil supply, out of a total 70,000 oil fields.
    • Distribution of giant and super-giant oilfields by region shows significant concentration in specific regions.

    The Oil Supply Structure (ii and iii)

    • The top 20 oil fields contribute considerably to global oil production, with some fields being predominant.
    • Top 5 oilfields for 2012 exhibit a sharp decline since then. Data are expressed in thousands of millions of barrels.

    Climate Change Mechanisms and Impacts

    • Increased radiation leads to higher evaporation and excess heat, which, in turn, drives radiative forcing.
    • Fossil fuel use leads to CO2 emissions, pollution, and increased heat, worsening radiative forcing.
    • These factors contribute to elevated global temperatures and climate change.

    Quiz on Climate Change

    • Industry-related CO2 emissions are approximately 3.5 billion tonnes per year.
    • The Paris Agreement aims to limit CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere to below 450 ppm.
    • The Paris Agreement's goal of 1.5°C calls for global carbon neutrality by 2050.

    The Challenge of Decarbonizing the Energy Industry

    • The challenge of decarbonizing the energy industry is substantial.

    The Energy Value Chain

    • The presentation demonstrates the energy chain from primary energy sources (oil, gas, coal, etc.) to final forms of energy and used energy (electricity, heat, transport).
    • Various loss factors during conversion, transportation or usage are presented.
    • Electricity is shown to have a high carbon footprint compared to other forms of energy usage.

    Three Energy Scenarios

    • Three energy scenarios (STEPS, APS, NZE) are presented, mirroring IPCC climate scenarios and representing various degrees of decarbonization.
    • These scenarios address decarbonization, energy value chain, and the radical redesign of global and regional economies with a focus on electricity, energy consumption and production.
    • Global electricity demand will rise significantly by 2050.

    Carbon Sources and Sinks

    • The budget imbalance exists between estimated sources and sinks of carbon dioxide.
    • Reducing the excess carbon dioxide emissions and supporting carbon sinks are both essential to climate action.

    The Players in the Oil Game (IOCs/NOCs)

    • International companies (IOCs) and national petroleum companies (NOCs) differ in their operational models, financial and legal status and roles.

    Global Upstream Oil & Gas Investments

    • Global upstream investments in oil & gas currently lie close to 47% below 2014 level in real terms.
    • The major cuts were a result of the energy transition and Covid.

    Other Points

    • The presentation has information about several energy sectors and their challenges in the context of climate change, including policies, markets, and investments.

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