Podcast
Questions and Answers
What is the target for global CO2 emissions as per the IEA for the year 2030?
What is the target for global CO2 emissions as per the IEA for the year 2030?
- 30 Gt
- 15 Gt
- 20 Gt
- 24 Gt (correct)
The Net Zero Emission by 2050 scenario aims for global energy sector to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2040.
The Net Zero Emission by 2050 scenario aims for global energy sector to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2040.
False (B)
By what year does the IEA project that emissions need to fall to net zero?
By what year does the IEA project that emissions need to fall to net zero?
2050
The scenario that includes all climate commitments made by governments worldwide is known as the ______.
The scenario that includes all climate commitments made by governments worldwide is known as the ______.
Match the energy scenarios with their respective temperature outcomes:
Match the energy scenarios with their respective temperature outcomes:
What is the projected total energy supply in the NZE scenario for the year 2030?
What is the projected total energy supply in the NZE scenario for the year 2030?
The STEPS scenario meets the climate objectives set by the IEA.
The STEPS scenario meets the climate objectives set by the IEA.
What is the anticipated price of oil per barrel in the STEPS scenario?
What is the anticipated price of oil per barrel in the STEPS scenario?
Emissions must drop by more than ______% per year starting from 2022.
Emissions must drop by more than ______% per year starting from 2022.
What is the total energy supply projected in the APS scenario for the year 2030?
What is the total energy supply projected in the APS scenario for the year 2030?
Which region contributes to 60% of the world's oil supply?
Which region contributes to 60% of the world's oil supply?
The top 20 oil fields contribute a total of more than 50% to global oil production.
The top 20 oil fields contribute a total of more than 50% to global oil production.
Name the oil field that contributes the largest percentage to global oil production.
Name the oil field that contributes the largest percentage to global oil production.
About 60% of the world's oil supplies remain dependent on output from _____ big, old super-giant and giant oil fields.
About 60% of the world's oil supplies remain dependent on output from _____ big, old super-giant and giant oil fields.
What is the projected price of oil per barrel in 2050 according to the IEA Net Zero Scenario?
What is the projected price of oil per barrel in 2050 according to the IEA Net Zero Scenario?
Match the following oil fields with their contribution to global oil production:
Match the following oil fields with their contribution to global oil production:
Coal production in the US is expected to decrease by 91% by 2050.
Coal production in the US is expected to decrease by 91% by 2050.
Which of these oil fields contributes the least to global oil production?
Which of these oil fields contributes the least to global oil production?
Africa is a significant contributor to the world's oil supply.
Africa is a significant contributor to the world's oil supply.
What percentage of fossil fuel use remains in 2050 according to the projections?
What percentage of fossil fuel use remains in 2050 according to the projections?
What is the total number of oil fields worldwide?
What is the total number of oil fields worldwide?
In 2050, the price range for coal global excluding the US is projected to be between $____ and $____ per tonne.
In 2050, the price range for coal global excluding the US is projected to be between $____ and $____ per tonne.
Global upstream oil and gas investments are _____ below 2014 in real terms.
Global upstream oil and gas investments are _____ below 2014 in real terms.
Match the energy sources to their projected percentage change from 2022 to 2050:
Match the energy sources to their projected percentage change from 2022 to 2050:
Which oil field's output has declined sharply since 2012?
Which oil field's output has declined sharply since 2012?
Which of the following energy sources is projected to change by 1066% from 2022 to 2050?
Which of the following energy sources is projected to change by 1066% from 2022 to 2050?
The energy transition and COVID led to increases in oil exploration and production capital expenditure (E&P CAPEX).
The energy transition and COVID led to increases in oil exploration and production capital expenditure (E&P CAPEX).
Natural gas in the US is expected to decrease by 77% by 2050.
Natural gas in the US is expected to decrease by 77% by 2050.
According to the projections, which energy source experiences a -100% change in traditional use of biomass by 2050?
According to the projections, which energy source experiences a -100% change in traditional use of biomass by 2050?
What percentage of global oil demand is represented by '1,170'?
What percentage of global oil demand is represented by '1,170'?
The _____ oil field is known for contributing 78% to global oil production.
The _____ oil field is known for contributing 78% to global oil production.
By 2050, the percentage change of bioenergy usage is projected to be ______%.
By 2050, the percentage change of bioenergy usage is projected to be ______%.
Match the oil field players with their respective countries:
Match the oil field players with their respective countries:
What is the projected price of oil in the year 2050?
What is the projected price of oil in the year 2050?
What will be the percentage of abated fossil fuels by 2050?
What will be the percentage of abated fossil fuels by 2050?
In the Announced Pledges Scenario, fossil fuel demand is expected to increase by 2050.
In the Announced Pledges Scenario, fossil fuel demand is expected to increase by 2050.
What percentage of energy sources will be clean energy (renewables and nuclear) by 2050?
What percentage of energy sources will be clean energy (renewables and nuclear) by 2050?
The demand for coal is expected to drop by more than ____ by 2050.
The demand for coal is expected to drop by more than ____ by 2050.
Match the energy sources with their projected change by 2050:
Match the energy sources with their projected change by 2050:
Which energy source is expected to see the greatest increase by 2050?
Which energy source is expected to see the greatest increase by 2050?
In 2050, more than a third of fossil fuels will be classified as abated or for non-energy use.
In 2050, more than a third of fossil fuels will be classified as abated or for non-energy use.
What will happen to total energy demand in the Announced Pledges Scenario?
What will happen to total energy demand in the Announced Pledges Scenario?
Renewables are expected to increase by ____% from the current levels by 2050.
Renewables are expected to increase by ____% from the current levels by 2050.
What contributes to the flattening of total energy demand in the Announced Pledges Scenario?
What contributes to the flattening of total energy demand in the Announced Pledges Scenario?
Electric vehicles and heat pumps are less efficient than fossil fuel-based alternatives.
Electric vehicles and heat pumps are less efficient than fossil fuel-based alternatives.
Which scenario predicts that electricity will become the global 'star' of energy sources?
Which scenario predicts that electricity will become the global 'star' of energy sources?
What is the projected share of fossil fuels in the energy mix by 2050?
What is the projected share of fossil fuels in the energy mix by 2050?
The share of solar PV capacity is expected to remain constant by 2050.
The share of solar PV capacity is expected to remain constant by 2050.
The share of fossil fuels in the Announced Pledges Scenario is reduced compared to ____.
The share of fossil fuels in the Announced Pledges Scenario is reduced compared to ____.
What year is targeted for achieving Carbon Neutrality in the European Green Deal?
What year is targeted for achieving Carbon Neutrality in the European Green Deal?
Match the following energy sources with their expected prices in 2050:
Match the following energy sources with their expected prices in 2050:
In the NZE 2050 Scenario, the primary energy is expected to decline at a rate of __% per year to 2030.
In the NZE 2050 Scenario, the primary energy is expected to decline at a rate of __% per year to 2030.
By how much is global electricity demand expected to change between 2021 and 2050 in the NZE scenario?
By how much is global electricity demand expected to change between 2021 and 2050 in the NZE scenario?
The Inflation Reduction Act in the USA is expected to decrease carbon emissions by less than 50%.
The Inflation Reduction Act in the USA is expected to decrease carbon emissions by less than 50%.
What is the target year set by California to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles?
What is the target year set by California to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles?
The USA aims for a target of __% carbon-free electricity by 2035 nationwide.
The USA aims for a target of __% carbon-free electricity by 2035 nationwide.
Which fossil fuel is projected to see a significant exit according to the USA's energy transition?
Which fossil fuel is projected to see a significant exit according to the USA's energy transition?
Renewables sectors are expected to provide zero emissions credits at a national level.
Renewables sectors are expected to provide zero emissions credits at a national level.
Match the following years with their respective targets in energy transition goals:
Match the following years with their respective targets in energy transition goals:
What is the expected increase in wind capacity by 2050?
What is the expected increase in wind capacity by 2050?
The global final energy in 2022 was __ EJ.
The global final energy in 2022 was __ EJ.
Which scenario reflects the Net Zero Emission objectives?
Which scenario reflects the Net Zero Emission objectives?
What is the expected lifetime of wind energy sources?
What is the expected lifetime of wind energy sources?
Nuclear energy has a CO2 emission cost of $0/MWh.
Nuclear energy has a CO2 emission cost of $0/MWh.
What is the capacity factor range for geothermal energy?
What is the capacity factor range for geothermal energy?
The capital expenditure (CAPEX) range for combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) is $______ M$/MW.
The capital expenditure (CAPEX) range for combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) is $______ M$/MW.
Match the following energy types with their corresponding fuel costs ($/MWh):
Match the following energy types with their corresponding fuel costs ($/MWh):
Which energy source has the highest capital expenditure (CAPEX) range?
Which energy source has the highest capital expenditure (CAPEX) range?
All solar energy types have a fuel cost of $0/MWh.
All solar energy types have a fuel cost of $0/MWh.
What is the CO2 emission cost ($/MWh) for hydro power?
What is the CO2 emission cost ($/MWh) for hydro power?
The operation and maintenance (O&M) cost for offshore wind energy is between $______ and $______ per MWh.
The operation and maintenance (O&M) cost for offshore wind energy is between $______ and $______ per MWh.
What is the fuel cost range for biopower?
What is the fuel cost range for biopower?
Solar energy systems use significant amounts of fuel during their operation.
Solar energy systems use significant amounts of fuel during their operation.
What is the capacity factor for concentrated solar power (CSP)?
What is the capacity factor for concentrated solar power (CSP)?
The capacity factor for natural gas (OCGT) is expected to be between ______ and ______.
The capacity factor for natural gas (OCGT) is expected to be between ______ and ______.
Which energy source listed has the longest expected lifetime?
Which energy source listed has the longest expected lifetime?
Match the following energy sources with their CAPEX ranges.
Match the following energy sources with their CAPEX ranges.
The CO2 emissions for geothermal energy are typically high.
The CO2 emissions for geothermal energy are typically high.
Flashcards
IEA Net Zero Scenario
IEA Net Zero Scenario
The IEA's scenario where global energy systems reach net zero emissions by 2050.
Total Energy Supply
Total Energy Supply
The overall amount of energy produced and consumed in a particular period.
Energy Supply (EJ)
Energy Supply (EJ)
The total energy supply measured in exajoules (EJ), a unit of energy equivalent to 10^18 joules.
Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels
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Renewables
Renewables
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Oil Price in 2050
Oil Price in 2050
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Solar Energy Growth
Solar Energy Growth
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Fossil Fuel Decline
Fossil Fuel Decline
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Nuclear Energy Role
Nuclear Energy Role
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Natural Gas Trend
Natural Gas Trend
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Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
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Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)
Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)
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Net Zero Emission by 2050 (NZE)
Net Zero Emission by 2050 (NZE)
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Global GDP growth
Global GDP growth
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Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
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Net-zero emissions
Net-zero emissions
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IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO)
IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO)
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Energy Efficiency
Energy Efficiency
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CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions
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Super-giant Oil Field
Super-giant Oil Field
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Giant Oil Field
Giant Oil Field
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Oil Supply Structure
Oil Supply Structure
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OECD
OECD
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EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery)
EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery)
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Top 20 Oil Fields
Top 20 Oil Fields
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Ghawar Oil Field
Ghawar Oil Field
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Cantarell Oil Field
Cantarell Oil Field
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Safaniyah Oil Field
Safaniyah Oil Field
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Rumaila Oil Field
Rumaila Oil Field
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Greater Burngan Oil Field
Greater Burngan Oil Field
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Samotlor Oil Field
Samotlor Oil Field
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Oil Production Decline
Oil Production Decline
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E&P CAPEX (Exploration & Production Capital Expenditure)
E&P CAPEX (Exploration & Production Capital Expenditure)
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Global Upstream Oil & Gas Investment
Global Upstream Oil & Gas Investment
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Fossil Fuel Share in 2050
Fossil Fuel Share in 2050
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Solar PV Capacity Growth by 2050
Solar PV Capacity Growth by 2050
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Wind Power Growth by 2050
Wind Power Growth by 2050
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Carbon Neutrality Target
Carbon Neutrality Target
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Primary Energy Decline in NZE
Primary Energy Decline in NZE
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Electricity in the Energy Chain (2050)
Electricity in the Energy Chain (2050)
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Radical Redesign of Economies
Radical Redesign of Economies
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Coal Exit
Coal Exit
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Oil Usage Slowdown
Oil Usage Slowdown
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Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Impact
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Impact
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IRA and Carbon Emissions Reduction
IRA and Carbon Emissions Reduction
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Renewable Portfolio Standards
Renewable Portfolio Standards
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Nuclear Zero Emission Credits
Nuclear Zero Emission Credits
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California's ICE Vehicle Phase-Out
California's ICE Vehicle Phase-Out
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Electric Vehicle Adoption in the US
Electric Vehicle Adoption in the US
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CCGT
CCGT
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CAPEX
CAPEX
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O&M Costs
O&M Costs
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Fuel Costs
Fuel Costs
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Cost Volatility
Cost Volatility
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Flexibility
Flexibility
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Resource Intermittency
Resource Intermittency
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Capacity Factor
Capacity Factor
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CO2
CO2
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Lifetime
Lifetime
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Full cost
Full cost
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Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power
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Hydro Power
Hydro Power
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Solar Power (PV)
Solar Power (PV)
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Solar Power (CSP)
Solar Power (CSP)
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Wind Power
Wind Power
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Geothermal Power
Geothermal Power
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Biopower
Biopower
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Energy Supply
Energy Supply
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Fossil Fuel Share
Fossil Fuel Share
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Electricity Share
Electricity Share
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Electric Vehicles (EVs)
Electric Vehicles (EVs)
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Heat Pumps
Heat Pumps
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Net Zero Emissions Scenario
Net Zero Emissions Scenario
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Carbon-based Molecules
Carbon-based Molecules
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Electricity-based Economy
Electricity-based Economy
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Coal Demand
Coal Demand
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Oil Demand
Oil Demand
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Natural Gas Demand
Natural Gas Demand
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Clean Energy Sources
Clean Energy Sources
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Energy Demand
Energy Demand
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Energy Efficiency Advantages
Energy Efficiency Advantages
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Cumulative Decrease
Cumulative Decrease
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Traditional Use of Biomass
Traditional Use of Biomass
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CO2 Advanced Econ
CO2 Advanced Econ
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CO2 BRZ, CH, IND
CO2 BRZ, CH, IND
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Energy Source Change
Energy Source Change
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Prices 2050 in USD 2022
Prices 2050 in USD 2022
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Natural Gas excl.US
Natural Gas excl.US
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Natural Gas US
Natural Gas US
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Coal global excl.US
Coal global excl.US
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Coal US
Coal US
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Share of clean energy sources
Share of clean energy sources
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Coal, Oil & Gas demand cumulatively decreasing
Coal, Oil & Gas demand cumulatively decreasing
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Triple to 63% by 2050
Triple to 63% by 2050
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Total energy demand flattens
Total energy demand flattens
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Inherent efficiency advantages
Inherent efficiency advantages
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Electric vehicles and heat pumps
Electric vehicles and heat pumps
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Fossil fuel-based alternatives
Fossil fuel-based alternatives
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Electricity becomes the global star
Electricity becomes the global star
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How bright will it shine?
How bright will it shine?
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Study Notes
Oil Industry Facing Decline?
- The presentation focuses on the future of the oil industry in the face of climate change.
- The agenda outlines key topics, such as life cycle of an oil field, reserves, supply and demand, pricing mechanisms and the oil players' response to the energy transition.
- The presentation examines the life cycle of a conventional oil field, from exploration through delineation, development, plateau, enhanced recovery, and abandonment.
- Illustrative data for the life cycle of an oil field shows declining production over time. Different phases like exploration, delineation and development require different amount of investment, while a build-up phase marks the plateau of production, followed by enhanced recovery and decline.
- The presentation differentiates between the life cycle of conventional oil fields from the life cycle of oil shale formations, presenting the declining production profile of a shale oil field over time.
- Yearly declines presented in the presentation vary from field to field, and are significantly higher during the early years of production.
- Data on proved oil reserves reveals that the distribution across regions has shifted over time. The Middle East consistently holds the largest share, although other regions have also experienced changes.
- The current level of global oil discoveries is significantly lower than in the past.
- OPEC holds the largest share of global conventional oil reserves in 2020.
- Oil reserves levels, production levels, refining margins and currency exchange rates (forex) are considered key metrics for an oil & gas company.
- Oil demand by sector and scenario projection indicates that oil demand could drop to ~80% in the NZE by 2050. Different sectors like road transport, petrochemicals, buildings and other industries will exhibit different reduction rates in oil demand.
- Global oil demand by sector and annual average change by region shows fluctuating demand trends.
- Post-Covid, oil demand growth has lost momentum due to government spending in clean energy and global central bank policies.
Reserves Definitions
- Proven reserves are recoverable from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. These reserves have a 90% confidence level.
- Probable reserves have a 50% probability of being recoverable.
- Possible reserves are recoverable with a 10% confidence or P10.
Oil Price Formation Mechanism
- OPEC adjusting volumes, and swing suppliers.
- OECD commercial stocks and geopolitical factors.
- Non-OPEC players.
- Financial markets' fluctuations (market speculation).
Oil Players Facing Energy Transition
- Key players in the oil industry, including National Oil Companies (NOCs) and International Oil Companies (IOCs), are playing significant roles by facing the energy transition.
- NOCs focus on long-standing, government-owned, cradle-to-grave operations.
- IOCs tend to be listed companies with robust financial power.
The Oil Supply Structure (i)
- Most of the world's oil supplies are dependent on a small portion (approximately 300) of super-giant and giant oil fields. This proportion accounts for about 60% of global oil supply, out of a total 70,000 oil fields.
- Distribution of giant and super-giant oilfields by region shows significant concentration in specific regions.
The Oil Supply Structure (ii and iii)
- The top 20 oil fields contribute considerably to global oil production, with some fields being predominant.
- Top 5 oilfields for 2012 exhibit a sharp decline since then. Data are expressed in thousands of millions of barrels.
Climate Change Mechanisms and Impacts
- Increased radiation leads to higher evaporation and excess heat, which, in turn, drives radiative forcing.
- Fossil fuel use leads to CO2 emissions, pollution, and increased heat, worsening radiative forcing.
- These factors contribute to elevated global temperatures and climate change.
Quiz on Climate Change
- Industry-related CO2 emissions are approximately 3.5 billion tonnes per year.
- The Paris Agreement aims to limit CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere to below 450 ppm.
- The Paris Agreement's goal of 1.5°C calls for global carbon neutrality by 2050.
The Challenge of Decarbonizing the Energy Industry
- The challenge of decarbonizing the energy industry is substantial.
The Energy Value Chain
- The presentation demonstrates the energy chain from primary energy sources (oil, gas, coal, etc.) to final forms of energy and used energy (electricity, heat, transport).
- Various loss factors during conversion, transportation or usage are presented.
- Electricity is shown to have a high carbon footprint compared to other forms of energy usage.
Three Energy Scenarios
- Three energy scenarios (STEPS, APS, NZE) are presented, mirroring IPCC climate scenarios and representing various degrees of decarbonization.
- These scenarios address decarbonization, energy value chain, and the radical redesign of global and regional economies with a focus on electricity, energy consumption and production.
- Global electricity demand will rise significantly by 2050.
Carbon Sources and Sinks
- The budget imbalance exists between estimated sources and sinks of carbon dioxide.
- Reducing the excess carbon dioxide emissions and supporting carbon sinks are both essential to climate action.
The Players in the Oil Game (IOCs/NOCs)
- International companies (IOCs) and national petroleum companies (NOCs) differ in their operational models, financial and legal status and roles.
Global Upstream Oil & Gas Investments
- Global upstream investments in oil & gas currently lie close to 47% below 2014 level in real terms.
- The major cuts were a result of the energy transition and Covid.
Other Points
- The presentation has information about several energy sectors and their challenges in the context of climate change, including policies, markets, and investments.
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