2024 US Presidential Election Debate

Study Notes

The presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Thursday night in Atlanta could be a turning point in the campaign.
Both candidates have spent time and money portraying each other in a negative light: Trump as an unhinged felon and Biden as a frail and not mentally sharp incumbent.
The debate will be hosted by CNN, with no studio audience, and simulcasted by major broadcast networks and cable channels.

The contest between Biden and Trump has been a flat line in the polls for a year, with Trump holding a narrow advantage in national polls and a slightly larger advantage in battleground states.
Democrats are increasingly nervous because Biden never trailed Trump in Washington Post-ABC News national polls in 2020.
Recently, there has been some movement in Biden's direction since Trump's conviction of 34 felony charges in the New York trial.

An aggregation of national polls in June shows Biden leading Trump by two-tenths of a percentage point in a two-way race.
With third-party candidates included, the current poll average shows the two tied, compared with a Trump lead of six-tenths of a percentage point in May.
FiveThirtyEight shows Biden leading Trump by two-tenths of a percentage point, 40.7% to 40.5%, as of Friday.
RealClearPolitics shows Trump leading by half a percentage point.

Trump has had a narrow advantage in more of the battleground states than Biden this year.
The states include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

A recent Fox News poll showed Biden up two percentage points, 50% to 48%, after being a point behind Trump in May and trailing by five points in March.
A new NPR/PBS/Marist poll showed Biden and Trump tied at 49% each.
The New York Times looked at the election through the prism of gender and found that Biden's lead among women is smaller than Trump's among men.
The Wall Street Journal focused on older voters and said they could be Biden's "secret weapon" against Trump this fall.

Some voters who have been undecided or looking at a third-party candidate are now looking at Biden more favorably or are more worried about Trump.
The conviction of Trump was a moment that told voters it was time to wake up and start paying more attention.
The Biden campaign has gone all in with its attack on Trump as unhinged, worse than he was as president and more dangerous if reelected.