emerging in africa

• The study note topic is "Emerging Africa in the framework of the sustainable development goals"
• A.A. 2024-2025
• Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza
• PROF. JEAN-LÉONARD TOUADI

Why Africa Today

• Africa changed rapidly over the past 15 to 20 years
• Growth performances and the international perception of the continent experienced surprising shifts
• There was a turnaround of economic performances in the mid-1990s
• A number of sub-Saharan countries achieved record growth rates for much of the next decade
• Economic recovery improved the continent's perception in international media
• "Africa rising" and "emerging Africa" became common, stimulating interest in the region
• What was once a neglected continent in the 1990s became a focus for advanced and emerging economies after 2000
• Six of the world's ten fastest-growing economies were in Africa
• For eight of the past ten years, Africa has outpaced East Asia in growth, including Japan
• There is a fast-growing middle class
• Around 60 million Africans earn $3,000 per year
• 100 million are expected to reach middle-income status by 2015, similar to India's situation
• Foreign investment increased tenfold in the past decade
• Increased Chinese involvement has improved infrastructure and boosted manufacturing
• Non-Western countries like Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, and India are following suit

Emerging Africa (R. Mudida)

• In 2000, the World Bank questioned if Africa could claim the 21st century, due to two decades of economic stagnation from 1980-2000
• African citizens were poorer in 2000 than two decades prior
• Since the turn of the century, Africa has been emerging economically, politically, socially, and technologically
• A larger proportion of Africa's 1.2 billion people are in the middle class compared to a decade ago
• Poverty rates have almost halved compared to 1990
• Health and education outcomes have improved significantly over the past two decades
• Governance is better now than in the first four decades after independence
• Authoritarian regimes collapsed in the 1990s and were replaced by more democratic ones

Emerging Africa (Robert Mudida)

• These new realities have contributed to an "Africa rising" narrative, embraced by citizens and governments

• Emerging Africa strives to assert itself on the global stage and adapt to globalization

• African states are seeking a stronger voice in international trade, environmental policy, and the International Criminal Court

• They are increasingly seeking non-traditional development partners like China, Russia, and Brazil, while maintaining relations with traditional partners

• Despite encouraging signs, an emerging Africa still faces globalization challenges

• African states address challenges like international terrorism and global pandemics, which are part of a complex global reality

• Opportunities are often accompanied by massive obstacles

• Debates persist about the true depth of African democratization

• Some suggest African democratization is more about form than substance

• Diverse African states and regions have distinct realities

• Poverty is more pronounced in Central Africa than in the rest of Africa.

• Inequality is more evident in Southern Africa

• In 2019, South Africa was the most unequal country in the world

• There is no such concept as “one Africa."

• There are 55 different African states, each with very distinct realities

• A prevalent theme over the past decade is "African solutions to African problems"

• Contextualizing African solutions to local realities is important

• Many challenges reflect broader, interdependent global realities

• Linkages exist between challenges in Africa and the rest of the world

• The ability of African states to create sub-regional specific solutions is vital

• These solutions should reflect increasing African and global interdependence

• Insights from worldwide comparative public policy are helpful when analyzing African opportunities

The Six Megatrends

• Africa's people will be young

• By 2050, the continent’s population will double to 2.5 billion

• 60% of Africa's population will be under 25.

• Youthful demographics can catalyze economy, especially in manufacturing, energy and digital technology

• Africa, with a young population and combined GDP of $2.96 trillion in 2022, may become the largest market for consumer goods and services

• May serve as a primary talent source for digital natives and skilled labor

• Bright futures depend on educational institutions supported by investment facilitating schooling and skills training

• Africa's cities will be crowded

• Urban areas in Africa will attract an additional 1 billion residents by 2050

• Experts predict the number of "megacities" will increase from three which are Cairo, Kinshasa, and Lagos to 14

• The growth of African cities will add vibrancy to the economy and culture of the region

• This attracts significant foreign investment

• The continent will be vulnerable to climate change

• Africa contributes less than 4% to global greenhouse gas emissions

• 35 of the 50 countries most at risk from climate change effects are in Africa

• Expect a temperature increase that will occur 1.5 times faster than the global average

• This leads to total deglaciation of Africa's mountainous areas by 2050, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather (droughts, storms, floods, excessive heat and cold).

• These changes will have a catastrophic impact on biodiversity and animal habitats, especially since Africa houses 25% of the world's biodiversity

• Climate-related challenges could drive Africa to become a center of innovation, leading the development of solutions for a $320 billion industrial sector in Africa

• Renewable energy (solar, wind, and geothermal), carbon sequestration, new approaches to sustainable land use

• Africa will quickly move into digital technology

• Africa's digital tech sector, with software, cloud, and internet services, has experienced growth since 2010.

• Currently, its five-year growth rate is at 47%

• Internet penetration has grown tenfold in the past 12 years

• The internet economy will reach $712 billion by 2050

• There are more than 600 active digital and technological hubs across the continent, making advances in fostering innovations, with participation of home-grown and global companies

• The largest clusters of digital activity are in Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa (with Ghana, Morocco, and Tunisia close behind).

• With appropriate investments in infrastructure, upskilling, and education, Africa’s working-age population could position it as a leader in digital services.

• The region will be more open to intracontinental cooperation

• The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent food crisis have demonstrated to African decision-makers in the public and private sectors that the continent needs to become more self-sufficient.

• Initiatives have begun to move Africa in this direction

• In 2018, 44 of the 55 African countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA)

• AfCFTA is establishing the world's largest trade bloc in terms of population and land area, covering 1.3 billion people signed by 54 member states and is

• Overcoming complex hurdles like logistics, visas, and existing barriers to trade via The pact could produce substantial positive economic value

• The African Union's adoption in 2015 was a sign of support for intracontinental cooperation of Agenda 2063, it is a blueprint for future projects, and is being used for projects such as high-speed rail systems

• Africa will be a more active source of innovation and entrepreneurship

• About 22% of working-age Africans start small businesses, compared to 18% in Latin America and 13% in Asia

• The continent has a history of breakthrough innovation in recent years, including mobile payment and digital healthcare platforms

• The continent's entrepreneurial culture is promising from the standpoint of gender parity

• Women from Africa are twice as likely to start an enterprise as women in other geographies

• Rise of innovation is supported by the continent's digital hubs, but is not limited to them

• Entrepreneurship in Africa is beginning to fuel transformative change in sectors, including, energy, health services, pharmaceuticals, sustainable agriculture and land use

• The agricultural sector could grow to as much as $320 billion per year in annual revenues by 2030, helping to solve the challenges of food shortages related to climate change

Political Changes

• In the 1990s, popular street protests and pressures brought concerted efforts at reforming the institutions in Africa’s politics and governance

• Reforms included sovereign national conferences (francophone and lusophone African countries), widespread constitutional reforms, single-party/military rule ending

• Political elections became multipartied

• Independent Electoral Commissions were created; The reforms were designed to open up the political space

• A transformation was attempted to create a level playing field for all political actors, make government more representative and accountable, allow for greater popular participation in national governance

• This was intended to enrich autonomous public space for articulation of popular aspirations

• The monopoly on media ownership exercised by the state was broken during the 1990s through licensing by governments of private newspapers, radio stations (mostly FM stations), television stations, digital satellite broadcasters and private internet service providers; Inroads were also made by digital satellite broadcasters and private internet service providers

• Apart from representing a radical departure from the situation that prevailed previously, the re-shaping marked promotion of political pluralism, governmental accountability, and popular participation

• The continent saw growth in civil associations across various life spheres

• Civil associations are viewed as a symbol for civil societies and for underwriting the African democratic transition

• (settler) colonialism/institutionalised racial discrimination in Southern Africa was a political challenge to African nationalism

• Beginning with Zimbabwe’s1(980) independence and South Africa's (1994) elections, the end of colonial rule and apartheid created developments also unleashed new processes and alliances

• If there was a perception that the unfinished business of national liberation prevented African countries from giving full attention to the challenges of overcoming their underdevelopment and dependence, the end of colonial rule and apartheid was interpreted as marking the end of an important phase in the history of the continent

• Subregional cooperation and integration in Africa gained momentum in the 1990s as it was seen as both and important exercise and it was a building bloc to pan-African economic unity

• Efforts were put into strengthening continental level governance: outlawing unlawful seizure of power, enabling the African Commission on Human and Peoples' Rights, exclusion of all governments that were installed other than by lawful means

• Efforts were then intensified to promote pan-African conflict resolution mechanisms/peacekeeping instruments

• OAU (Organisation of African Unity) became a new African Union (AU) with: a pan-African parliament, judicial system, and a reinvigorated commission

• Political shifts changed how states relate. Attaining independence came with a strict policy of non-interference the inherited inviolability boundaries and a strong principle of. These were challenged crises hit the Great Lakes region

• Massive government violations made them unable to enjoy principles, and they are no longer entitled to noninterference in the affairs of their countries

• the 1990s reform focused on Authoritarian Impact review, establishing what happened, who was responsible and what correctives would achieve national reconciliation.

• South Africa developed the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC); then, The Gatchacha experiment sought to address Rwanda’s horrific tribal genocide.

The Context of POlitical Changes

• Economic crisis and maladjustment, informal expansion, decreasing policy independence marks the context in which politics reforms

• World collapse symbolised: East/West Berlin War/USSR

• The long Cold War politicised nations and hindered domestic politics.

• end of war shifts geo-political factors

• State weakening by global actors, economic downturns, social stratification, and power shift

• ndeological wars marked that period

• violence to solve issues

• rise of groups

• The recent diaspora from Africa and the constitution is recent. Many choose to stay back.

• Significant new shifts in African politics and governance have emerged are that key players embraced a multi-party system for conflict resolution.

• Shifts are weakened by widening economic disparity.

• To address the shift, it's important citizenship is available to all.

Military coups in Africa are on the rise again

• Neoliberal programs in Africa called for a reduction in authoritarian governance & military power, for greater political pluralism and compliance with the rule of law. Coups were thus thought rarer post this

• Yet, analysis shows about 200 coups/attempts have taken place since independence- with more coming more recently.

• Military coups are again a growing trend in African politics since 1990, decreasing to lows.

• Since that prior time and to now, approximately 8 additional putsches have succeeded, which involve Burkino Faso and Mali, two takovers, Guinea taking 1 in 2021 and the others (Niger and Gabon taking one each)

Africa’s democracy: one step forward, two steps back

• Research indicate that over-rating progress on democracy. African countries with democracy are showing setbacks.
• There are still setbacks in free trade
• As such, countries are advised to monitor the rise of economic and social factors

Coups Don’t Come out of the Blue

• Acute crises conditions & high self enforcement lead to bad impacts. Lack of economic and political power contributes

• The Armed forces has historically intervened in politics

• Coups breed coups. Military takeovers inspire other countries to support Russia by plotting factors.

• Above all, African countries must take seriously their societies understanding of each moment today, it impacts the continent experiences multiple & simultaneous changes.

• Changes vary in scope and affect levels of society/ruptures. Ruling elites capitalized on the colonial revolution to make family fortunes from privatizing the state for the next generation/conflicts

• Arrival on the public seen are those born 1990s and now, and grew up facing unprecedented political power and economic crisis. It is vital to focus those groups.

From good governance to neo sovereignism

• Good governance relies on economics, markets/strong state
• Around 2010, and by defeat of second-generation citizen power
• Africa is often with diasporas, often those who are poorly integrated elsewhere who then embrace great power.

Economic Changes

• Emerging Africa looks at how 17 different emerging Sub-Saharan nations are pushing past stagnation to build strong economic growth through good governance and decreased conflict.

• Work by Radelet is a pioneer to examine post-1990 African state's economics and list nations leading to new forms of economics, trade policy such as: Batswana, South Africa, Lesotho, Namibia, Rwanda, Tansania, etc

• Emergence has taken root due to better economics policies to grow wealth and end poverty by focusing on 5 fundamental changes: More free governance, economic trade, less debt, higher tech.

• Post 2020, the World economic growth is in Africa (3-4% or less) is stabilized.

• Africa faces the need to increase: diversification of economies, good governing, education/health. Harness power among women.

Emerging Economies: Definition

• Africa's miraculous growth is increasing, but must be based on the best global economics which emphasize growth over region. (Asian, European etc) Emerging economies by the World Bank are based on; quantitative factor, governance/rights emphasis socioeconomic/ literacy, high growth potential,
• These economies outpace devloped economies and emphasize the rule of law.

What countries deserve to be emerging economies?

• Countries with "high economic, rapid urbanization" in Africa, countries have long-term goals
• As such, categorize by: economic rate, GDP, high FDI, Trade success

New Scramble for Africa

• Following 2000, and a high-growth period, economic competition increase trade on the continent

• US tensions are higher with China, and China seeks growing resources/hegonomy in Africa. The weakness in Africa post colonial influences the great power on the region that: Appropriates.

The new external interference marks the continent as a place for European, the US/China, India, etc to compete. The migration flows from Africa to Europe mark a great need for development to grow population.

Important lessons to maintain economic freedom/good governance Economic is more dependent of its neighbors due to high economic growth.

In any case this marks 4: African Oil, Africa will continue to show success and political power depends on the great powers