Module 2 IPAT m.m.pdf

Stig Irving Olsen, Associate Professor Quantitative Sustainability: Conceptual frameworks DTU 1 Learning outcomes of video Describe the conceptual causal relationship of environmental impacts Describe the importance of technology development in relation to...

Stig Irving Olsen, Associate Professor Quantitative Sustainability: Conceptual frameworks DTU 1 Learning outcomes of video Describe the conceptual causal relationship of environmental impacts Describe the importance of technology development in relation to other actions toward a more sustainable future DTU 2  The sustainability challenge GDP I Ehrlich P, Holdren J (1971) Impact of population I = P ⋅ A ⋅ T = Pop ⋅ ⋅ growth. Science 171, pp. 1212–1217. Commoner B (1972) The environmental cost of person GDP economic growth. In Ridker RG (ed.) Population, Resources and the Environment, pp. 339- 63. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC. Graedel and Allenby (1995) Industrial ecology. Prentice Hall, New Jersey. I is the environmental impact Pop is the global population GDP person is the Affluence, the material standard of living I is the Technology factor – environmental impact per created value GDP DTU  The global population is increasing GDP I I = Pop ⋅ ⋅ person GDP DTU  The affluence is increasing GDP I I = Pop ⋅ ⋅ person GDP https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/past-and-projected-global-economic-output-1 DTU  The environmental impacts should be reduced GDP I I = Pop ⋅ ⋅ person GDP Richardson et al., Sci. Adv. 9, eadh2458 (2023) DTU How much should the technology factor be reduced? Σ EI Pop A T 200 % 200 % 200 % 200 % = x x 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % now in 50 years now in 50 years now in 50 years now in 50 years P. A = the total human demand/consumption will grow by at least a factor of 4-5 in 50 years Σ EI = the total human impact on the environment will grow accordingly, if the technology factor remains unchanged I T( ) should be reduced by a factor 4 to 20 to achieve environmental sustainability GDP DTU Need to address the consumption/demand Rebound effect Increasing human demands DTU Take aways The global environmental impact is driven by human consumption and demands We can achieve some reduction of the impact by technology development, which should be a factor 4-20 more efficient But we also need to address the human consumption by it self DTU 9