Lecture 10 - Adulthood - Risk Taking.pdf

Lecture 10 - Adulthood - Risk Taking Defining Risk Outcome variability Example Pay to enter a prize draw you could win a large reward but also very little meaning that the possible outcomes are very variable Probability of a negative outcome People avoid losses to a greater extent than they are atta...

Lecture 10 - Adulthood - Risk Taking Defining Risk Outcome variability Example Pay to enter a prize draw you could win a large reward but also very little meaning that the possible outcomes are very variable Probability of a negative outcome People avoid losses to a greater extent than they are attached to gains A high probability of a negative outcome is very unappealing Risk taking propensity Risk perception leads to risk-taking propensity people’s risk perceptions influence their likelihood of engaging in that activity. The perceived risk of an activity is typically measured by self-report, rather than the types of outcomes that people think might occur Decisions older adults face Medical care and treatment Social environment Whether to accept assistance Finance Insurance Savings Retirement Self-report Risky Dilemmas Choice Dilemma Scale * Mr B, who has developed a severe heart ailment, has the choice of changing many of his strongest life habits or undergoing a delicate medical operation which may succeed or prove fatal. * * What is the minimum probability of success (from 1/10 to 10/10) necessary for you to recommend the medical operation? * Using such measures, older adults are typically more risk averse than younger adults * Kogan & Wallach (1964) * a way to measure risk propensity is by measuring risk tolerance How tolerant a person is of the risks they perceive for an activity Someone who is highly tolerant of risks may engage in a risky activity to receive the rewards, despite acknowledging high risk involvement This self-report scale was designed to measure a person’s risk tolerance Reports of risk taking Attitudes towards risky driving practices * * * Sometimes I take risks when driving, just for the sake of the risks * It is a thrill to outwit other drivers * I am easily provoked or angered when driving * Adults over 50 agreed less with such statements than 17-29 year olds Real world applicability - Individuals who reported high on this measure also report more previous crashes * Turner & McClure, Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot (2003) * Risk taking propensity ~ * The Domain Specific Risk Taking scale (DOSPERT) ~ Financial: Invest 5% of your annual income in a speculative stock * * * * * Health: Sunbath without sunscreen * Ethical: Have an affair with a married man/woman Recreational: Bungee jump off a tall bridge * * Social: Admit that your tastes are different from those of a friend * Other studies have measured people’s self-reported risk taking propensity - likelihood in engaging in activities The DOSPERT distinguishes risk taking propensity from risk perceptions from expected benefits and measures these in five life domains * Weber et al., J Behav Decis Mak (2002) * Rolison et al., J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci (2014) * * Age related trends in risk taking propensity differ across domains In this study, in the ethical and health domains, risk taking propensity reduced linearly with age, Recreational risk taking reduced more steeply in younger age Financial risk reduced more sharply with older age Social risk taking increased slightly from younger to middle age, before reducing sharply in later life A meta-analysis found that across studies, self-reported risk taking propensity or willing to take risks reduces with age in general and in a variety of domains The findings are less clear in the social domain, where a lot of studies do not show an overall age-related trend König *J Behav Decis Mak (*2021) ^Negative age trend in risk-taking in various domains across countries ^Age trends steeper in some domains than others This meta-analysis looked at age trends in self-reported risk taking propensity across many countries. These studies were longitudinal - same participants tested on multiple occasion over a period of time Liu *J J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci (*2023) Causes of age trends What explains the general negative age trend in self-reported risk taking propensity? Risk sensitivity theory Greater risk taking in young adulthood to gain access to resources and mating partners Older adults have accumulated substantial resources and are thus no longer in a state that requires taking risks Growth vs maintenance Young adults focus on growth goals; older adults focus on maintenance and loss prevention Financial risk taking rewarded in younger age, and is encouraged, but in later life finances may be needed in the short term which makes risky investments disadvantageous Recreational risk taking can be important for securing social status in younger age but can be dangerous in older age among physically vulnerable. In social domains, taking a risk could threaten peer relations and in older age could threaten much needed social contacts Decisions from experience Problems with self-report Honesty and insight Do people behave the same in real life with real consequences? An alternative: decisions from experience Computer-based tasks that simulate real life decision making Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) ^Older adults take fewer risks than younger adults Age differs particularly at the beginning of the task prior to learning ^Computational Models Older adults initially less likely to pump balloon and less certain than younger adults Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) ^This task was designed to measure how people learn to avoid options that offer high win amounts, but low net gain in the long-run. Options that offer a high win amount are attractive, but also occasionally punished with a very high loss ^Impaired executive processes in older age can cause risk taking mistakes when task demands are high. These risk taking mistakes result from faulty learning rather than risk taking propensity The BIAS task Choose between ‘stocks’ and ‘bonds’ People initially choose the ‘stocks’ but shift to the safe ‘bond’ with experience Older adults continue to choose ‘stocks’ suggesting impairment in use of probabilistic feedback in older age Explicit Information When told the actual payoffs, age differences disappear Older adults make risk taking mistakes in uncertain situations when learning demands are high Decisions: Descriptive vs experience Ambiguity vs unambiguity Ambiguous Decision from experience - incomplete info Unambiguous Decision from description - complete info Summary Self-report studies Indicate greater cautiousness with advancing age Decisions from experience Older adults take fewer risks when risk taking is encouraged through the learning process (BART), and more risks when risk taking is discouraged (IGT) Decisions from description vs. experience Explicit information reduces task demands (imposed by learning) and is associated with smaller age differences #PS406