IFB295 Week 3 Lecture Notes (PDF)

L3: Project Cost, Velocity, Release planning, and Sprint planning meeting IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Presenter: Mark Walpole CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF...

L3: Project Cost, Velocity, Release planning, and Sprint planning meeting IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Presenter: Mark Walpole CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF TRADITIONAL OWNERS QUT acknowledges the Turrbal and Yugara, as the First Nations owners of the lands where QUT now stands. We pay respect to their Elders, lores, customs and creation spirits. We recognise that these lands have always been places of teaching, research and learning. ​ QUT acknowledges the important role Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people play within the QUT community.​ CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Week 3: Topics • Project Cost - Estimates for calendar effort • Team Velocity • Project Cost - Turn estimates into dollar values • Internet banking example • Release planning • Internet banking example • Sprint planning • During sprint - Progress checkpoint • Preparation for week 4 CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Estimates for Calendar Effort • Team velocity • if known • Top-down guesstimate • Bottom-up mapping CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Top-Down Guesstimate • Agree on a team structure. • E.g. 4 developers, 2 testers, a business analyst, and a project manager • Look at the application as a whole considering all estimates • How long will it take the team to build system? • Multiply team size by duration gives person months or days CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Bottom-Up Mapping • Pick a typical story that is 1 story point in size • Discuss everything that needs to be done to implement the story • essentially a group design discussion • consider normal working practices • Repeat for a few stories of each size group • some consistency should emerge • Generate a conversion factor • conversion factor = development time ÷ story points CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Bottom-Up Mapping • Apply conversion factor to all stories • total time = story points × conversion factor • Get total development effort for project • Factor in other team members’ contributions • use team structure from top-down estimate • Add overhead activities • e.g., deployment, deployment preparation, ... CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Compare the Estimates of Effort • Compare Top-Down to Bottom-Up estimates are they similar? if not, why not? • If there are significant differences • discuss assumptions • understand why they are different • re-estimate • Check if there are systemic biases • Check if non-development activities were accounted for • e.g., testing, project management, ... CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Week 3: Topics • Project Cost - Estimates for calendar effort • Team Velocity • Project Cost - Turn estimates into dollar values • Internet banking example • Release planning • Internet banking example • Sprint planning • During sprint - Progress checkpoint • Preparation for week 4 CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Team Velocity • Team counts number of story points completed at end of each sprint • Probably will complete about the same number in the next sprint • assuming no changes in the team • assuming similar technology • Use velocity to convert story points to calendar effort • requires consistent sprint length CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Initial Velocity • Guesstimate initial velocity to be ⅓ to ½ of the available time • e.g., 6 team members, working on a 2 weeks (10 day) sprint = 60 days • using initial velocity at ⅓ results in 20 ideal days per sprint • How many Story Points in an “ideal” day? • would be handy if 1 story point = 1 “ideal” day (i.e., team day) • For subsequent Sprints use the actual sprint velocity calculated from prior sprints for forward planning CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Week 3: Topics • Project Cost - Estimates for calendar effort • Team Velocity • Project Cost - Turn estimates into dollar values • Internet banking example • Release planning • Internet banking example • Sprint planning • During sprint - Progress checkpoint • Preparation for week 4 CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Turn Estimates into Dollar Values • Calendar effort provides effort in person months • Can be used to estimate dollar cost • Use average internal costs for resources CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Internet Banking Example • Team Structure • 4 Developers • 1 UI designer • 1 Tester • 1 Business analyst • 1 Project manager • 0.5 Support from architecture • Assume $1000 / person / day • Daily cost: $8500 CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Internet Banking Example • Development costs • If calendar effort estimating indicated • 1 story point = 1 day • Total story point estimate • 154 points • Total development time • 154 team days • Estimated Development Cost: 154 × $8500 = $1,309,000 CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Internet Banking Example • Consider overhead tasks • Designing overall site look & feel • 3 weeks × pair of UI designers = $30,000 • Load testing • 2 weeks × 2 testers = $20,000 • Final system testing • 2 weeks × 2 testers = $20,000 • Security specialist • 4 weeks × 1 consultant = $20,000 • Total overhead costs: $90,000 CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Internet Banking Example • Consider other costs • Documentation: $15,000 • production of material for call centre operators • Training: $0 (nil) • no development team training • Communication: $100,000 • marketing material for customers • demo application & mailouts • Travel and Accommodation: $0 (nil) • development team is co-located CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Internet Banking Example • Hardware: $400,000 • production environment • disaster recovery environment • performance testing environment • staging • Operational costs: $150,000 • hardware support • 1 infrastructure team member CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Internet Banking Example • • • • • Development Development Overheads Documentation Communication Hardware $1,309,000 $ 90,000 $ 15,000 $ 100,000 $ 400,000 • Total for Develop & Deploy: $1,914,000 • Operational Cost • Total to end of first year: $ 150, 000 $2,064,000 CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Internet Banking Example • Banded estimates • Assuming 20% sensitivity • $2,064,000 × 1.2 = $2,476,800 • $2,064,000 × 0.8 = $1,651,200 • Round to nearest $100K • Minimum cost: $1.7M • Likely (Average of max and min) cost: $2.1M • Maximum cost: $2.5M CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Internet Banking Example • Revisit the cost-benefit analysis • If the estimated cost is less than expected everything is ok • Is the project too costly • May need to trim scope. Keep the largest benefits. • If too costly and no longer viable? • Stop it now before starting major development work. This is considered a successful project planning phase. CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Internet Banking Example Costs $M • Cost Benefit Analysis Minimum Likely Maximum Maximum $2.5M Likely $2.1M $1.6M −$0.9M −$0.5M $2.0M −$0.5M −$0.1M $2.5M $0.0M $0.4M Minimum −$0.1M $0.3M $0.8M • Is this project viable? • What should a project manager do? • What should a project sponsor do? CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Benefits $M $1.7M Internet Banking Example Costs $M • Cost Benefit Analysis Maximum $1.9M Likely $1.6M Minimum $1.3M • Is this project viable? • What should a project manager do? • What should a project sponsor do? CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Benefits $M Minimum $1.6M −$0.3M Likely $2.0M $0.1M Maximum $2.5M $0.6M $0.0M $0.3M $0.4M $0.7M $0.9M $1.2M Week 3: Topics • Project Cost - Estimates for calendar effort • Team Velocity • Project Cost - Turn estimates into dollar values • Internet banking example • Release planning • Internet banking example • Sprint planning • During sprint - Progress checkpoint • Preparation for week 4 CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Release Planning • Assemble stories into logical groups for releases and subsequently decomposition of the first release into sprints. • Shared understanding by the project team of the initial release plan and features that deliver the best or highest value to the business. • Business value is generally measured/quantified through performance, growth, and profitability. So the scale needs to be appropriately stated. • Release Planning ≠ Prioritisation CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Release Planning • Collect stories into coherent groups of functionality • Identify the smallest set of stories that delivers immediate business value • initial release • subsequent releases are small increment that delivers additional business value • A minimum viable product (MVP) is a version with just enough features to be usable • Deployment overhead will influence the size and frequency of releases • Internal release – not deployed into the operational environment • Release candidates – planned release into the operational environment CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Release Planning • Roles • Product Owner decides on priorities • Scrum team decides what needs to be done to achieve it and the effort • Release planning template available on Blackboard CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Release Planning Issues • Stakeholder key dates • What happens if the release plan doesn’t correspond to stakeholders’ important dates? • e.g. Olympic Games website by Sept. 2016 • Balancing business value vs. technical risks • External dependencies • risks of delay? • Resource requirements • fully identified? • availability? CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Release Plan - Internet Banking Example • Imagine the stories for the example Internet Banking system • Organize them into coherent releases • First few releases will be almost exclusively “Must Have” stories • a few complementary low priority stories may be added to satisfy user expectations • “Won’t Have” stories are out of scope CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Release Plan - Internet Banking Example • Internal Release One • Feasibility Demonstration (30 points) • Must Haves from View Accounts, Transfers and BPay • without implementing reliability • Internal Release Two • Security Base (20 points) • most Must Haves from Security • Release Candidate One (MVP) • Reliability (18 points) • ensure transactions are reliable, plus remaining Security story CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Release Plan - Internet Banking Example • Internal Release Three • Increased Flexibility (20 points) • Should Haves: view transactions in range, schedule for future date, correct mistake, login with account number • Internal Release Four • Remember for Me (30 points) • Should Haves: maintain external account list, maintain BPay list, bill from existing billers • Internal Release Five • Scheduling (18 points) • Could Haves, without SMS confirmation and duplicate transaction warnings CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Release Plan - Internet Banking Example • Release Candidate Two • Extra Security and Assurance (18 points) • confirmation of PIN change by SMS and warnings about duplicate transactions • Story point estimation: 154 points • Cost estimation calculated a team velocity averaging one story point per day • Team is following fixed two week sprints • So, team velocity is 10 story points CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Release Plan - Internet Banking Example Initial Story Development July 2 – 27 Internal Release 1 Feasibility Demo July 30 – Sept. 7 Internal Release 2 Security Base Sept. 10 – Oct. 5 19 JUL CRICOS No.00213J Development HW Setup July IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems August September October Release Plan - Internet Banking Example Release Candidate 1 Reliability Oct. 8 – Nov. 2 3 iterations, but with Christmas holidays Internal Release 3 Increased Flexibility Nov. 5 – 30 Internal Release 4 Remember for Me Dec. 3 – Jan. 25 15 OCT CRICOS No.00213J Full HW set up including DR October IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems 5 NOV Trial deployment & backout November 17 DEC December Release 1 Live January Release Plan - Internet Banking Example CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Week 3: Topics • Project Cost - Estimates for calendar effort • Team Velocity • Project Cost - Turn estimates into dollar values • Internet banking example • Release planning • Internet banking example • Sprint planning • During sprint - Progress checkpoint CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Sprint Planning • GOAL: Identify stories to be completed in a sprint and subsequently decompose them into implementation tasks. • Shared understanding by the project team of the work to be done during the sprint. • Sprint Planning template available on Blackboard. CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Sprint Planning Part 1 • Meeting with product owner at start of sprint • <= 2 hours for a 2 week sprint • Product owner selects stories from product backlog as identified in the release plan • sets sprint goal • prioritises stories from highest to lowest • revisit release plan • do they have new priorities? • How many story points completed in last sprint? • velocity for next sprint • product owner decides what to do about stories not completed CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Sprint Planning Part 2 • Planning meeting for team at start of sprint • <= 2 hours for a 2 week sprint • Break stories into tasks • estimating size of each task • becomes sprint backlog CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Task Break Down • Read out story • Brainstorm tasks required to implement story • keep them short half a day or less is good • write each task on an index card • All stories have a “Verify story is complete” task • Review list of tasks • Does the list seem complete? • Compare lists of tasks between stories • Was something forgotten? CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems Week 3: Topics • Project Cost - Estimates for calendar effort • Team Velocity • Project Cost - Turn estimates into dollar values • Internet banking example • Release planning • Internet banking example • Sprint planning • During sprint - Progress checkpoint CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems During Sprint • • • • Highest priority story is the one under development Developers work on 1 task at a time Stories are completed throughout the sprint not all at the end The “next task” is any task from the unfinished story with the highest priority taking into account dependencies between tasks • When you complete a task mark the card as completed • If you discover a new task create a card for it highlight the card review these in sprint retrospective CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems During Sprint - Progress Checkpoint • Review progress halfway through the sprint are you going to finish all the stories? • If not, quickly redo sprint plan; • which stories will likely be dropped? confirm priorities with product owner • review task estimates. Was there consistency in estimation? • Key principles: Communication & Courage • keep the customer informed and on-side CRICOS No.00213J IFB295 – IT Project Management Faculty of Science, School of Information Systems