Descriptive Epidemiology Report - Group 6 PDF

EPIDEMIOLOGY College of Arts and Sciences Descriptive Epidemiology According to Person, Place, and Time GABUAT, Micko GUZMAN, Angelica PANTALEON, Yuri Rhosnan TABUTOL, Kate Winslet Group 6 TABLE...

EPIDEMIOLOGY College of Arts and Sciences Descriptive Epidemiology According to Person, Place, and Time GABUAT, Micko GUZMAN, Angelica PANTALEON, Yuri Rhosnan TABUTOL, Kate Winslet Group 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS Person, Place and Time Person Population Pyramid Place Time Trends Evaluation Public Health Surveillance Causal Insights College of Arts and Sciences OBJECTIVES Describe the extent of a public health problem according to person, place, and time. Communicate a public health problem with the use of tables and graphs. Identify who is at greatest risk for selected health-related states or events. Use surveillance methods to monitor whether unusual health-related states or events exist and to evaluate public health intervention programs. Understand how descriptive epidemiology can provide clues as to the causes of disease. College of Arts and Sciences PERSON Descriptive data on person answers to WHO question. Descriptors often include: 1. Age 2. Sex 3. Race/ethnicity 4. Marital and family status 5. Occupation 6.Education PLACE Descriptive data by place addresses WHERE question. These data often involve comparisons between or among geographic regions, in groups before and after migration, and between twins raised in different settings. TIME Epidemiologic investigations range from hours to weeks, years to decades. Short-term disease incubation periods of a few hours can be as important to the epidemiologist as long-term latency periods for chronic diseases spanning decades. Another term used occasionally to describe time factors in epidemiology is temporal, which means time or refers to time-related elements or issues. EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences Describing the Findings By person, place, and time Between 1347 and 1351 over 30 percent of the population of Western Europe (some 25 million people) died of a highly contagious disease known as the Black Death, or Plague as it is properly known. In 1348 alone, Venice lost 100,000 people, and at least 1,200 died daily in Vienna. Worldwide the number of deaths was over 60 million. EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences Transition from Data to Information to Message Data Numerical information from selected variables; observations or measurements of a phenomenon of interest Information Data with enough context provided to allow people to analyze and determine meaning Message Information with the addition of interpretation. Answers questions such as, “What does this mean to me?” “Why should I care?” “What am I supposed to do about it?” Data-Information-Message Applied To Public Health Data 1,000 cases of measles in a community Information The rate of measles is 25 per 1,000. This is a 50% increase from last year. There were 500 fatalities, nation-wide. Message Vaccinate all infants for measles before their first birthdays. Every child could be vaccinated for less money than it costs to care for complications of a few sick children. Communicating Health Data and Identifying Who Is at Greatest Risk Tables and graphs summarize and describe data in a way that can be easily interpreted. Some examples follow. EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences Rates age-adjusted to the 2000 U.S. standard population. Data from National Cancer Institute, DCCPS, Surveillance Research Program, Surveillance Systems Branch. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. SEER*Stat Database: mortality: all COD, aggregated with state, total U.S. (1969–2016). Released December 2018. www.seer.cancer.gov. Underlying mortality data provided by NCHS, www.cdc.gov/nchs Number of Males and Females in the United States, 2000, Across the Age Span Death Rates for Motor Vehicle–Related Injuries In The United States According to Age in 1960 and 2005 Fatal Occupational Injury Rates by State, 2002 POPULATION PYRAMIDS 1. Stationary pyramid A population pyramid typical of countries with low fertility and low mortality, very similar to a constrictive pyramid. 2. Expansive pyramid A population pyramid that is very wide at the base, indicating high birth and death rates. 3. Constrictive pyramid A population pyramid that comes in at the bottom. The population is generally older on average, as the country has long life expectancy and a low death rate, but also a low birth rate. This pyramid is becoming more common, especially when immigrants are factored out, and is a typical pattern for a very developed country with a high level of education, easy access to and incentive to use birth control, good health care, and few negative environmental factors. EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences  Population Pyramid, United States FIGURE 5-6 Population Pyramid for the Population of the United States, 2020 DEPENDENCY RATIO Population < 15 and 65+ divided by the population 15–64 Multiply by 100 to express as % Interpretation – There are ___ dependents for every 100 people of working age. DEPENDENCY RATIO IN UNITED STATES 2000 – 51% There are 51 dependents for every 100 people of working age 2025 – 61% There are 61 dependents for every 100 people of working age 2050 – 67% There are 67 dependents for every 100 people of working age EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences TIME TRENDS What are Time Trends? In epidemiology, time trends refer to changes in the frequency of health-related events over time. These trends can reflect outbreaks, seasonal variations, long-term shifts, or emerging health issues. Time trends help track the progression of diseases, evaluate health interventions, and predict future health challenges. Types of Time Trends Secular Trends: Long-term changes in health events (e.g., the decline in cardiovascular disease). Seasonal Trends: Regular fluctuations based on the time of year (e.g., flu season). Short-term Trends (Epidemics): Sudden increases in disease frequency (e.g., COVID-19 surges). EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences SECULAR TREND EXAMPLE SEASONAL TREND EXAMPLE SHORT-TERM TREND EXAMPLE PUBLIC HEALTH IMPLICATIONS OF TIME TRENDS 1. Monitor Disease Control Programs Time trends help assess the effectiveness of health interventions, such as vaccination campaigns or disease screening programs. 2. Identify Emerging Health Issues Observing time trends allows public health officials to spot new health risks (e.g., new infectious diseases) before they become widespread. 3. Resource Allocation Time trends guide the allocation of resources for disease prevention and health promotion based on observed patterns. EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences EVALUATION What is Evaluation? Evaluation in descriptive epidemiology refers to the assessment of health data quality, the effectiveness of surveillance systems, and the impact of health interventions. Evaluation is used to ensure health data is accurate, reliable, and useful for guiding public health decisions and interventions. EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences KEY COMPONENTS OF EVALUATION 1. Data Quality Assessment: Evaluating if the data is accurate and complete. Example: Checking if all cases of a disease are reported. 2. Surveillance System Effectiveness: Ensuring the system detects and tracks health events accurately. Example: Evaluating if a flu surveillance system can detect a sudden outbreak early. 3. Impact Evaluation: Measuring the success of health programs or interventions. Example: Assessing if a vaccination campaign reduces disease incidence. EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences Evaluating a Disease Surveillance System Example: National Cancer Registry Evaluation Evaluating the effectiveness of a national cancer registry helps ensure complete and accurate reporting of cancer cases across regions. Possible Questions for Evaluation: 1. Are all cancer cases reported? 2. Is data collection timely and accurate? EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences PUBLIC HEALTH SURVEILLANCE Implicit in descriptive epidemiology is the notion of public health surveillance. What is public health surveillance? The systematic ongoing collection, analysis, interpretation, and dissemination of health data. WHY SURVEILLANCE DATA? Monitor To identify sudden changes in occurrence To follow long-term trends and patterns To identify changes in risk factors As a result, we identify whether: Does a health problem exist? Is the problem getting worse? EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences PUBLIC HEALTH SURVEILLANCE Implicit in descriptive epidemiology is the notion of public health surveillance. What is public health surveillance? The systematic ongoing collection, analysis, interpretation, and dissemination of health data. WHY SURVEILLANCE DATA? Monitor To identify sudden changes in occurrence To follow long-term trends and patterns To identify changes in risk factors As a result, we identify whether: Does a health problem exist? Is the problem getting worse? EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences Some Explanations for Observed Changes in the Frequency and Pattern of Cases in a Surveillance System, Which Are Not Due to Changes in Risk Exposures Inconsistent interpretation and application of the case definition Change in the case definition Change in surveillance system/policy of reporting Improved diagnosis (e.g., new laboratory test, increased physician awareness, a new physician in town) Change in diagnostic criteria Change in reporting requirements Change in the population Change in the level and emphasis on active case detection Random events Increased public awareness EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences Surveillance for Evaluation Health programs may be aimed at: Increasing vaccination levels Reducing smoking Increasing fruit and vegetable consumption Increasing physical activity Decreasing obesity Increasing screening Vaccine-Preventable Disease State public health officials monitor vaccine preventable–disease rates. May signal that the vaccination program is not reaching specific at-risk populations Monitoring rates by racial/ethnic groups, for example, may show that the increasing rate only exists among a given minority group. Do barriers exist related to culture, language, and access to care? The vaccination program should then be altered to address these barriers EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences What Determines the Value of a Surveillance Program? Whether appropriate actions have been taken to date as a result of information from the surveillance system Whether the information has been used to make decisions and take action Whether monitored prevalence of the outcome variable relates to the level and distribution of services available Whether the information may be used in the future EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences What Determines the Value of a Surveillance Program? Whether appropriate actions have been taken to date as a result of information from the surveillance system Whether the information has been used to make decisions and take action Whether monitored prevalence of the outcome variable relates to the level and distribution of services available Whether the information may be used in the future EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences Causal Insights from Descriptive Epidemiology Plotting health-related states or events over time can give the epidemiologist insights into probable determinants of disease. If a disease occurs only in the summer, then that is when the epidemiologist searches for causal factors. Thoughts on Climate Change Health Impact Greenhouse gases EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences Causal Insights from Descriptive Epidemiology Studies involving geographic comparisons of disease frequency between groups, states, countries, migration studies, and twin studies have further yielded important insights into the respective roles genetic and environmental forces have on disease. EPIDEMIOLOGY LECTURE College of Arts and Sciences Cancer Incidence in the United States and Utah, 2014–2016 THANK YOU FOR LISTENING!!!