Bài thuyết trình zemi.docx

Trang 1 Good afternoon everyone. My name is BUI THI TAM. and I\'m here today to present my research on :THE ROLE OF FDI IN ASEAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION. Trang 2 This is the outline Trang3 The next we need to know What of FDI? Why it important? An investment made by a...

Trang 1 Good afternoon everyone. My name is BUI THI TAM. and I\'m here today to present my research on :THE ROLE OF FDI IN ASEAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION. Trang 2 This is the outline Trang3 The next we need to know What of FDI? Why it important? An investment made by a company or entity based in one country into a company or entity based in another country. A foreign direct investment is a controlling ownership in a business enterprise in one country by an entity based in another country. FDI involves an investment from one country into a business or entity located in a different country, with the goal of establishing a controlling ownership or significant influence over the foreign enterprise. This investment can take various forms, such as acquiring shares, establishing a new business, or participating in joint ventures. Trang 4 FDI is an important channel for the transfer of technology between countries, promotes international trade through access to foreign markets, and can be an important vehicle for economic development.(OECD iLibrary) The diagram shows how foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth are connected, highlighting the various ways FDI can boost a country\'s economic development: Direct Contributions: Filling the Savings-Investment Gap: FDI adds to domestic savings, offering extra capital for investments that can energize economic activity. Relaxing Foreign Exchange Constraints: FDI can help ease the pressure on a country\'s foreign exchange reserves, making it easier to import essential goods and services. Contribution to Export and Market Access: FDI often provides access to international markets and distribution networks, increasing exports and helping integrate into global value chains. Firm-Specific Intangibles: Foreign firms bring valuable knowledge, technology, marketing know-how, and managerial skills, boosting the productivity and competitiveness of local industries. Indirect Contributions (Externalities): Productivity Spillovers: Local firms can learn from the advanced technologies and practices of foreign firms, leading to better efficiency and innovation. Competitive Effect: The presence of foreign firms can push local firms to become more efficient and innovative to remain competitive. Demonstration Effect: Foreign firms can act as role models for local firms, showing them successful business practices and strategies. Linkage Effect: FDI can create connections between foreign and local firms, encouraging the growth of local supplier industries and fostering broader economic development. Labor Turnover Effect: The movement of skilled labor between foreign and local firms can promote knowledge transfer and skill development within the economy. Export Spillovers: FDI can introduce new products and production techniques, enhancing the quality and competitiveness of local exports. Overall Impact: The combined effect of these direct and indirect contributions is a positive impact on economic growth. FDI boosts productivity, competitiveness, exports, and employment, leading to higher incomes and better living standards. However, the extent of these benefits can vary depending on the specific context, including the host country\'s ability to absorb these benefits, regulatory environment, and supportive policies. Trang 5 FDI flows to developing Asia remained flat at \$662 billion This region remained the largest recipient of FDI, accounting for half of global inflows. In East Asia, FDI decreased by 3 per cent to \$324 billion in 2022.\ While East Asia saw a slight decrease, China experienced a record \$189 billion in FDI, primarily in manufacturing and high-tech industries..\ Flows to South-East Asia increased by 5.5 per cent to \$224 billion -- also the highest level ever recorded. In South Asia, FDI flows rose by 9 per cent to \$57 billion. Southeast Asia, and particularly ASEAN, was a standout performer in 2022, attracting a historic \$224 billion in FDI. This impressive growth was driven by strong investment in manufacturing, as well as burgeoning interest in sectors like energy transition, the digital economy, and wholesale and retail trade. Trang6 The graph illustrates the trends in ASEAN\'s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows and its share in global FDI inflows from 2012 to 2022. - **FDI inflows:** ASEAN experienced fluctuations in FDI inflows, with a notable decline from 2013 to 2016, followed by a steady increase until 2020. There was a significant surge in 2021, reaching a peak of over \$200 billion. However, inflows slightly decreased in 2022. - **Share in world inflows:** ASEAN\'s share in global FDI inflows generally increased over the period, with some minor fluctuations. It reached its highest point in 2022, accounting for nearly 17.3% of global FDI inflows. - Southeast Asia (as a bloc) is projected to become the world\'s fourth-largest economy by 2040, after the United States, China and India, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 4 per cent between 2022 and 2040.[^4^](https://www.dfat.gov.au/countries-economies-and-regions/southeast-asia/invested-australias-southeast-asia-economic-strategy-2040/chapter-1-why-southeast-asia) - A large and growing population will lead to greater spending on lifestyle, education and housing, while there will be increasing demand for health and aged care services. - By 2040, projections suggest that -- based on the after-tax income of households -- the potential consumer market in Southeast Asia will be 10 times larger than Australia\'s.) Trang 7\ \"Now, let\'s delve into the specifics within ASEAN. As you can see from this chart\ Looking at this chart, it\'s clear that ASEAN is becoming a hot spot for foreign investment! Singapore led the region with a substantial \$141.2 billion in FDI inflows, followed by Indonesia at \$22 billion and Vietnam at \$17.9 It\'s interesting to see how other countries like Indonesia and Vietnam are also growing, even if they\'re not at Singapore\'s level yet. While most countries experienced growth, it\'s worth noting the slight declines in Malaysia and Thailand compared to 2021.\" This could be because of things happening in those countries or maybe competition from other places. But overall, ASEAN seems to be doing well, especially compared to the rest of the world where FDI is going down. It\'s also cool to see that countries are investing in each other within ASEAN. Trang 9 Emerging economies with strong purchasing power, developed infrastructure, and a skilled, affordable labor force are attracting international investors. These countries are expanding their global trade participation and implementing policies to encourage foreign direct investment. In this context, the research delves into the intricate relationship between FDI and economic development in ASEAN. It seeks to unravel the factors that influence FDI growth, the mechanisms through which investment inflows translate into GDP growth, and the overall impact of FDI on the economic landscape of the region. By scrutinizing these multifaceted dimensions, the research aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of FDI\'s role in shaping the economic trajectories of ASEAN nations. Trang 10 Let\'s transition now to the complexities surrounding FDI\'s impact on economic development. \"While it\'s widely acknowledged that FDI can be a catalyst for economic growth, the precise nature of this relationship is far from straightforward.\" \"In fact, the impact of FDI is a multifaceted issue, influenced by a wide array of factors.\" \"These factors include the unique economic and political landscape of the host country, the strength of its institutions, and how FDI is distributed across different sectors of the economy.\" \"Understanding these nuances is crucial for policymakers and investors alike, as it allows for more effective strategies to harness the potential benefits of FDI while mitigating any potential risks.\" Trang12 Raicevic, Ignjatijević, and Milojevic (2016) conducted a financial analysis of the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the economic growth of developing countries. The authors emphasized that while positive effects are generally expected due to human capital and productivity levels, the impact of FDI on economic growth can vary depending on several factors. They highlighted that FDI can lead to increased exports and better utilization of natural resources,contributing to economic development. However, the study also acknowledged that the relationship between FDI and economic growth is complex and can be influenced by various country-specific factors and policies. Trang13 Rao et al. (2020) investigated the relationship between foreign aid, foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth in South-East Asia and South Asia. The authors specifically highlighted the positive outcomes of FDI at the macro level,suggesting that FDI plays a crucial role in promoting economic growth in these regions. However, the study also acknowledged the importance of considering the specific context of each country and the potential for varying impacts of FDI depending on the economic and political conditions. Trang16 Research Objective The primary objective of this research is to empirically investigate the role of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the economic development of Southeast Asian countries. This study aims to:Analyze the overall impact of FDI on economic growth in Southeast Asia. Examine the differential impacts of sectoral FDI (primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors) on economic growth. Identify the factors that may augment or retard the potential impact of FDI on economic growth. Trang 17 - The study\'s key findings can be summarized as follows:Overall Impact of FDI: The research indicates that FDI has a significant impact on the economic growth of Southeast Asian countries. The inflow of FDI provides much-needed capital for investment, facilitates technology transfer, and enhances productivity through spillover effects. - Sectoral Impact: The impact of FDI varies significantly across different sectors:Primary Sector: FDI in the primary sector (agriculture, mining) tends to have a positive impact on economic growth, particularly in countries with abundant natural resources. - Secondary Sector: FDI in the manufacturing sector is found to be highly beneficial, contributing to industrialization and export-led growth. - Tertiary Sector: The impact of FDI in the service sector is mixed. While it can lead to growth in high-value services like finance and telecommunications, it may also create monopolies and limit the development of domestic industries. - Augmenting Factors: The study identifies several factors that enhance the positive impact of FDI, including trade openness, macroeconomic stability, and the presence of skilled labor. - Retarding Factors: Conversely, factors such as political instability, inadequate infrastructure, and restrictive regulatory environments can diminish the benefits of FDI. Limitations - The study acknowledges several limitations:Data Availability: The availability of consistent and comprehensive data on sectoral FDI inflows is limited, particularly for smaller Southeast Asian countries. This restricts the scope of the analysis to a few major economies in the region. - Time Lag: The impact of FDI on economic growth may not be immediate and can vary over different time periods. The study uses lagged variables to account for this, but the exact time lag may differ across countries and sectors. - Exclusion of Variables: Due to data constraints, certain important variables such as labor and infrastructure were excluded from the analysis. This may lead to an incomplete understanding of the full impact of FDI. - Model Specification: The empirical model used in the study may not capture all the complex interactions between FDI and economic growth. There may be other unobserved factors influencing the results. Overall, while the study provides valuable insights into the role of FDI in Southeast Asian economic development, it also highlights the need for more detailed and nuanced analyses to fully understand the dynamics at play. Trang 18 Existing literature has explored the impact of FDI on economic growth from various angles, but there are still several gaps in our understanding. - First, while many studies have focused on the overall impact of FDI on GDP growth, there is a need for more nuanced research that examines the specific channels through which FDI affects different sectors of the economy. - Second, most studies have focused on the direct effects of FDI, such as increased capital accumulation and technology transfer. However, there is a need for more research on the indirect effects of FDI, such as spillover effects on domestic firms and the impact on human capital development. Trang 19 - Third, while there is a growing body of research on the impact of FDI in specific countries or regions, there is a need for more comparative studies that examine the impact of FDI across different countries and regions. This would allow us to identify common patterns and country-specific factors that influence the impact of FDI. - Finally, there is a need for more research that examines the long-term impact of FDI on economic growth. Many studies have focused on the short-term effects of FDI, but it is important to understand the long-term effects of FDI on productivity, innovation, and competitiveness. - This research aims to address these gaps by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the impact of FDI on the economic development of ASEAN. By examining the specific channels through which FDI affects different sectors of the economy, the direct and indirect effects of FDI, and the long-term impact of FDI, this research will provide a more nuanced understanding of the role of FDI in promoting economic growth in the region. Trang 20 I\'m still refining my research questions, and I\'ve come up with a few potential directions. Before finalizing them, I\'d like to share my thoughts with all of you and get your valuable feedback. **What are the primary determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in ASEAN countries over the past four decades (1982-2022)?** **How does the level of FDI inflows influence the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in ASEAN? Is there a causal relationship, and if so, how strong is it?** **Are there specific economic, political, or institutional factors that moderate the relationship between FDI and GDP growth in ASEAN?** The factors that influence the growth of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in ASEAN countries. (1982-2022)? How FDI inflows impact the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of these countries. Trang 21 Given the limited time for this research, I acknowledge that there are areas where I could delve deeper. However, I\'d like to present the work I\'ve completed so far, while remaining open to potential changes in the future as my research progresses. To analyze the factors that influence the growth of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in ASEAN countries. To investigate how FDI inflows impact the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of these countries. Trang 22 To analyze the data and answer our research questions, we\'ll be utilizing the SPSS software. My method is regression analysis, which will enable us to estimate the coefficients of our models and determine the statistical significance of the relationships between FDI, GDP growth, and other relevant factors. By using this thorough method, we hope to get a clear understanding of how FDI affects the economies of ASEAN countries.