Agricultural Development Economics- AGB 411 Unit 1: The Concept of development PDF

## MULUNGUSHI UNIVERSITY ### School of Agriculture and Natural Resources ### Department of Agribusiness and Agriculture Economics # AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS- AGB 411 ## Unit 1: The Concept of development - August, 2023 Prepared by Mrs C.S. Kwangu ## OUTLINE 1. Dimensions of World food and development problems 2. Hunger and malnutrition 3. Food demand dynamics and nutrition 4. Population distribution and growth 5. The gender dimension 6. Concept of development ### 1.1. Dimensions of World Food and Development Problem #### 1.1.1 Overview of the world food problem - One of the most urgent needs in the world today is to reduce the pervasive problems of hunger and poverty in developing countries. - Despite many efforts and some successes, millions of people remain ill-fed, poorly housed, under-employed, and afflicted by a variety of illnesses. - In many countries, the natural resource base is also being degraded, with potentially serious implications for the livelihoods of future generations. - Why do these problems persist, how severe are they, and what are their causes? - What role does agriculture play and how might it be enhanced? - What can rich countries do to help? - How do the policies in developed countries affect developing countries? - An understanding of the fundamental causes of the many problems in poorer countries is essential if solutions are to be recognized and implemented. - This course attempts to discuss some of these issues and further attempt to understand the role agriculture play in economic development. #### A few statistics about global hunger Between 691 and 783 million people faced hunger in 2022 (FAO, 2023) - hunger is severe lack of dietary energy and prevalence of undernourishment #### FIGURE 1 GLOBAL HUNGER REMAINED VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM 2021 TO 2022 BUT IS STILL FAR ABOVE PRE-COVID-19-PANDEMIC LEVELS The figure shows a line graph with two lines. The left vertical axis represents the "Percentage" from 0 to 18 and the right vertical axis represents "Millions" from 0 to 900. The horizontal axis represents the "Year" from 2005 to 2022. - **Prevalence of undernourishment (percentage, left axis):** The orange line shows the prevalence of undernourishment with a decreasing trend from 2005 to 2022. - **Number of undernourished (millions, right axis):** The blue line shows the number of undernourished with a decreasing trend from 2005 to 2022. #### TABLE 1 PREVALENCE OF UNDERNOURISHMENT, 2005-2022 This table shows the prevalence of undernourishment by region, for the years from 2005-2022. | Region | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021* | 2022* | |-----------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------|--------| | WORLD | 12.1 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 9.2 | | AFRICA | 19.2 | 15.1 | 15.8 | 16.6 | 16.5 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 18.7 | 19.4 | 19.7 | | Northern Africa | 6.2 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 7.5 | | Sub-Saharan Africa | 22.5 | 17.6 | 18.2 | 19.1 | 18.9 | 19.1 | 19.5 | 21.6 | 22.2 | 22.5 | | Eastern Africa | 31.7 | 23.8 | 24.6 | 26.2 | 26.2 | 26.0 | 26.7 | 28.1 | 28.4 | 28.5 | | Middle Africa | 31.9 | 22.5 | 23.3 | 24.7 | 23.7 | 24.4 | 24.8 | 27.6 | 28.5 | 29.1 | | Southern Africa | 5.1 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 11.1 | | Western Africa | 12.2 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 13.7 | 14.5 | 14.6 | | ASIA | 13.9 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.5 | | Central Asia | 13.8 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | | Eastern Asia | 6.8 | <2.5 | <2.5 | <2.5 | <2.5 | <2.5 | <2.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | <2.5 | | South-eastern Asia | 17.3 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | | Southern Asia | 20.2 | 15.4 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 15.6 | 16.4 | 15.6 | | Western Asia | 7.9 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 10.8 | | Western Asia & | 7.1 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 9.2 | | Northern Africa | | | | | | | | | | | | LATIN AMERICA & | 9.3 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 6.5 | | THE CARIBBEAN | | | | | | | | | | | | Caribbean | 18.4 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 14.0 | 14.2 | 15.2 | 14.7 | 16.3 | | Latin America | 8.6 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 5.8 | | Central America | 8.1 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | | South America | 8.8 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | | OCEANIA | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 7.0 | | NORTHERN AMERICA | <2.5 | <2.5 | <2.5 | <2.5 | <2.5 | <2.5 | <2.5 | <2.5 | <2.5 | <2.5 | | AND EUROPE | | | | | | | | | | | **NOTES:** Proiected values are based on the projected midranges. The full ranges of the 2020, 2021 and 2022 values can be found in Annex 2. #### ✓ Summary - Up to **783 million people** – (one in ten of the world's population) – still go to bed hungry each night (WFP, 2023) - More than 345 million people are now experiencing acute hunger, a number that has more than doubled since 2019 (WFP, 2023, humanitarian organizations, 2022). - Around the world, 50 million people are on the brink of starvation in 45 countries (humanitarian organizations, 2022) - One person is estimated to be dying of hunger every four seconds (humanitarian organizations, 2022) - 238 local and international NGOs (including World vision, Oxfam international, Plan international, Care, Action against Hunger etc) strongly called on world leaders gathering at the 77th UN General Assembly (held in September 2022) to take decisive action to end the spiraling global hunger crisis. #### ✓ World Food and Income Situation #### ✓ Question 1: Are people hungry because the world does not produce enough food? - No. - While it is true that Population has roughly doubled over the past 40 years, food production has grown even faster. - Enough **food is produced today** to feed everyone on the planet (UN, 2019) - Infact, in the aggregate, the world produces a surplus of food. - If the world's food supply were evenly divided among the world's population, each person would receive substantially more than the minimum amount of nutrients required for survival. - The world is not on the brink of starvation. #### ✓ Question 2: If total food supplies are plentiful, why do people die every day from hunger-related causes? #### ✓ This seismic hunger crisis has been caused by a deadly combination of factors (WFP, 2023) 1. At its most basic level, hunger is a poverty problem. - Only the poor go hungry. - They go hungry because they **cannot afford food** or **cannot produce enough of it themselves**. - The most vulnerable groups are: families of the unemployed or under employed; the elderly, handicapped, and orphans; and persons experiencing temporary misfortune due to weather, agricultural pests, or political upheaval. - Thus, hunger is for some people a chronic problem and for others a periodic or temporary problem. - Many of the poorest live in rural areas 2. Hunger is a food and income distribution problem - Hunger is related to the distribution of food and income within countries and is national and international problem related to the geographic distribution of food, income, and population. - Roughly one-fifth of the world's population (about one billion people) live on less than $1 per day (about half live on less than $2 per day) (Norton et al, 2010) - Word bank (2018) about 26.2% (1.9billion people) of the world population lived below $3.2 per day in 2015. - Most of these people live in Asia, although severe hunger and poverty are found in SSA and in parts of Latin America (Norton et al, 2010). #### Figure 1-1. Index of per capita food production. (Source: FAOSTAT data, 2005.) The figure shows a line graph with four lines. The left vertical axis represents the "Per capita Food Production Index" from 50 to 200, and the horizontal axis represents the "Year" from 1963 to 2003. - **Asia:** Black squares represent the per capita food production in Asia with an increasing trend. - **Latin America:** The blue * represents the per capita food production in Latin America with an increasing trend. - **Near East:** The red x represents the per capita food production in the Near East with an increasing trend. - **Africa:** The black * represents the per capita food production in Africa with a decreasing trend. - **While hunger and poverty are found in every region of the world, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only major region where per-capita food production has failed to at least trend upward for the past 30 years.** - **As Figure 1 shows, per capita food production in Africa has stagnated since 1980 and had experienced a downward trend for several years before that time.** - **Latin America and particularly Asia have experienced relatively steady increases. The result has been significant progress in reducing hunger and poverty in the latter two regions.** - **Some reasons for this** - ✓ Low agricultural productivity (farm output divided by farm inputs), - ✓ wide variations in yields due to natural, economic, and political causes, and - ✓ rapid population growth have combined to create a precarious - **• Implication** - **• Production variability causes wide price swings that reduce food security for millions who are on the margin of being able to purchase food.** - • **Thus If the world is to eliminate hunger, it must distinguish among solutions needed for** - ✓ **short-term famine relief** - ✓ **those needed to reduce commodity price instability (or its effects),** - ✓ **those needed to reduce long-term or chronic poverty problems.** #### 1.1.2 Food prices - A subject of interest to many stakeholders globally - Overtime food prices have been fluctuating-obviously this is as expected. - The figure below shows World prices of major grains in dollars - Peak prices can be seen in the 1970s (1974) to about 1981, and most recently 2008 The image shows a line graph with three lines. The left vertical axis represents the "US$/Metric Ton" from 0 to 700, and the horizontal axis represents the "Year" from 1963 to 2009. - **Rice:** Black solid lines indicate the prices of rice with ups and downs between 1963 and 2009, including a sharp rise from 2007 to 2009. - **Wheat:** Black solid lines indicate the prices of wheat with ups and downs between 1963 and 2009, including a sharp rise from 2007 to 2009. - **Maize:** Black solid lines indicates the prices of maize with ups and downs between 1963 and 2009, including a sharp rise from 2007 to 2009. #### Monthly change in commodity food prices (FAO, 2022) **FAO Food Commodity Price Indices** This figure shows a bar chart with five bars. The left side of the image shows the vertical axis with "2014-2016=100" and values in the range from 85 to 255. At the bottom are the months from August 2021 to August 2022. - The orange bar (meat) shows a mostly stable price, except for November 2021, where there is a slight decrease. - The yellow bar (cereals) shows a gradual increase during 2021, a peak around March 2022, and a decline to the end of August 2022. - The purple bar (dairy) shows an initial increase, a peak in February 2022, and a gradual decline until June 2022, and stability from then on. - The light green bar (vegetable oils) shows a gradual increase during 2021, a peak around March 2022, and a significant decline to the end of August 2022. - The blue bar (sugar) shows stability until July 2022. - **Prices of food have varying implications** - ✓ **Lower food prices benefit consumers and stimulate industrial growth However this can lower agricultural producer incomes and reduce employment of landless workers.** - ✓ **However, if lower prices reflect lower production costs, impacts on producers may be mitigated.** - ✓ **Food price fluctuations directly affect the well being of the poor, who spend a high proportion of their income on food.** - ✓ **It also threatens political stability** - **It is believed that furture food-price trends will depend on the relative importance of demand shifts, resulting primarily from changes in population, income, and non-food uses for farm products (such as bio-fuels) compared to supply shifts.** #### Other drivers of global hunger ✓ A deadly combination of **conflict, economic shocks, climate extremes and soaring fertilizer prices** is at the root of soaring numbers. 3. **Conflict is still the biggest driver of hunger**, with 70 percent of the world's hungry people living in areas afflicted by war and violence (WFP, 2023). - E.g DRC - Events in Ukraine are further proof of how conflict feeds hunger - It forces people out of their homes, wiping out their sources of income and wrecking countries' economies 4. **The climate crisis is one of the leading causes of the steep rise in global hunger.** (WFP, 2023) - Climate shocks destroy lives, crops and livelihoods, and undermine people's ability to feed themselves. - Hunger will spiral out of control if the world fails to take immediate climate action. 5. **Global fertilizer prices have risen even faster than food prices,** which remain at a ten-year high themselves (WFP, 2023). - Worsened by war in Ukraine plus high natural gas prices - High fertilizer prices could turn the current food affordability crisis into a food availability crisis, with production of maize, rice, soybean and wheat all falling in 2022. #### 1.1.3 Malnutrition - More often than not, Hunger manifests itself in **malnutrition**, - **Wasted-being thin for your height** - **Stunted: height for your age.** Being short for ones age The image shows a diagram of malnutrition with 5 cards. - **Card 1:** shows the data about stunted children: - Children - Stunted - 149.2 million children - 22.0% of all children - **Card 2:** shows the data about wasted children: - Wasted - 45.5 million children - 6.7% of all children - **Card 3:** shows the data about overweight children: - Overweight - 38.9 million children - 5.7% of all children -**Card 4:** shows the data about low birth weight: - Women, Children, Men - Low birth weight - 20.5 million newborns - 14.6% of all live births -**Card 5:** Shows an hourglass with a label "timing". **Source: (FAO, WHO, WFP, world bank, 2023)** #### FIGURE 14 THE GLOBAL TRENDS IN STUNTING, WASTING, EXCLUSIVE BREASTFEEDING AND LOW BIRTHWEIGHT MUST BE ACCELERATED, WHILE FOR OVERWEIGHT IN CHILDREN THEY WILL HAVE TO BE REVERSED, TO ACHIEVE THE 2030 GLOBAL NUTRITION TARGETS This figure shows a bar chart with 6 bars. The left side of the image shows the vertical axis with "PERCENTAGE" and values in the range from 0 to 80. At the bottom are 6 categories. - **Low birthweight:** Purple bar shows a slight decreased trend from 2000 to 2025 with a value of 15.0 in 2000 and 10.4 in 2025. - **Exclusive breastfeeding (1-6 months):** Green bar shows a significant increase from 2000 to 2025 with a value of 37.0 in 2000 and 70.0 in 2025. - **Stunting (-5 years) :** Blue bar shows a gradually decreased trend from 2000 to 2025 with a value of 22.3 in 2000 and 13.5 in 2025. - **Wasting (-5 years) :**Gray bar shows a gradually decreased trend from 2000 to 2025 with a value of 16.6 in 2000 and 6.8 in 2025. - **Overweight (-5 years) :** Orange bar shows a gradually increased trend from 2000 to 2025 with a value of 3.0 in 2000 and 5.6 in 2025. - **Majority of malnourished children are in developing countries.** - **Global stunting and wasting prevalence were 1.6 and 1.4 times higher in rural versus urban areas.** 1. **Stunting:** - **There has been steady progress in reducing stunting since 2012, but the world is still not on track to achieve the 2030 target of 13.5 percent (50% reduction).** 2. **Wasting** - **Reduction in wasting is making some progress but global prevalence is more than twice the 2030 target.** - **Wasting was highest in low and lower-middle-income countries (94% of the global burden).** 3. **Overweight:** - **Globally, the majority of overweight children (77%) lived in lower-middle- and upper-middle-income countries in 2022.** - **In terms of progress towards the 2030 target of less than 3 percent prevalence, no regions were on track and only Northern America and Europe made some progress towards the target.** 4. **Low birth weight:** - **Globally, there has been no significant change in low birth weight over the last two decades - 16.6% in 2000 compared with 14.7% in 2020** - **no region is on track to attain the 2030 target of a 30 percent reduction since the 2012 baseline.** 5. **Exclusive breastfeeding** - **steady progress has been made on exclusive breastfeeding, (with 47.7% (of infants under 6 months) exclusively breastfed worldwide in 2021, up from 37.0% in 2012).** - **An estimated 75% of exclusively breastfed infants live in low or lower-middle-income countries.** - **Lets now take a look at the Zambian picture** #### Zambia Nutrition Data (DHS 2013-2014 and 2018) This table shows the prevalence of the nutritional indicators in Zambia, measured in 2013 and 2018. | Indicators | DHS 2013-2014 | DHS 2018 | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------|----------| | Population 2018 (UNICEF 2019) | 17.4 million | | | Population under 5 years (0-59 months) 2018 (UNICEF 2019) | 2.9 million | | | Prevalence of stunting among children under 5 years (0-59 months) | 40% | 35% | | Prevalence of underweight among children under 5 years (0-59 months) | 15% | 12% | | Prevalence of wasting among children under 5 years (0-59 months) | 6% | 4% | | Prevalence of low birth weight (less than 2.5 kg) (of children whose birth weights are known) | 9% | NA | | Prevalence of anemia among children 6-59 months | 60% (MIS 2015) | 58% | | Prevalence of anemia among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) | 47% (MIS 2015) | 31% | <start_of_image>- **Zambia still has one of the highest rates of malnutrition and stunting in sub-Saharan Africa.** - **Nationally, 35% of children under five years are stunted.** - **Analysis by age groups shows that stunting is highest (46%) in children 18-23 months and lowest (19%) in children under six months.** - **Children in rural areas (36%) are more likely to be stunted than those in urban areas (32%).** - **At the provincial level, Northern has the highest percentage of stunted children (46%), followed by Luapula (45%). Levels of stunting are lowest in Western and Southern provinces (29% each).** - **A mother's level of education generally has an inverse relationship with stunting levels** - **Malnutrition in childhood and pregnancy has many adverse consequences for child survival in Zambia and for long-term well-being.** ### 1.1.4. Health #### Life expectance #### Some Basic Indicators | Country | 2005 Income Per Capita (U.S.$) | 2005 PPP (U.S.$) | Life Expectancy (years) | Prevalence of Under-nourishment (%) | Under-5 Mortality per 1,000 Live Births | Crude Birth Rate | Adult Literacy Male | Adult Literacy Female | |----------|------------------------------------|--------------------|----------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------------------|-------------------|-------------------|----------------------| | **Income Group** | | | | | | | | | | Low | 585 | 2,486 | 59 | 24 | 114 | 50 | 71 | 50 | | Lower middle | 1,923 | 6,314 | 70 | 11 | 39 | 29 | 93 | 85 | | Upper middle | 5,634 | 10,931 | 71 | 4 | 27 | 16 | 96 | 85 | | High | 35,264 | 32,550 | 79 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 99 | 98 | | **Country** | | | | | | | | | | Dem. Rep. Congo | 120 | 720 | 44 | 74 | 205 | 50 | 81 | 54 | | India (LIC) | 1,260 | 3,460 | 64 | 20 | 74 | 26 | 73 | 48 | | Egypt (LMC) | 730 | 4,440 | 71 | 4 | 33 | 24 | 83 | 59 | | Brazil (LMC) | 3,550 | 8,320 | 71 | 5 | 33 | 20 | 88 | 89 | | Malaysia (UMC) | 4,970 | 10,230 | 74 | 1 | 12 | 20 | 92 | 89 | | United States | 43,560 | 41,950 | 78 | <2.5 | 7 | 14 | 99 | 99 | | **Region** | | | | | | | | | | East Asia and the | 1,630 | 5,914 | 71 | 12 | 31 | 15 | 95 | 87 | | Pacific | | | | | | | | | | Latin America and | 4,045 | 8,116 | 72 | 10 | 33 | 20 | 91 | 89 | | the Caribbean | | | | | | | | | | Middle East and | 2,198 | 6,084 | 70 | 7 | 53 | 24 | 81 | 61 | | North Africa | | | | | | | | | | South Asia | 692 | 2,004 | 63 | 21 | 83 | 25 | 70 | 45 | | Sub-Saharan Africa | 746 | 3,122 | 47 | 30 | 163 | 40 | 70 | 53 | *Source: Data from World Bank, World Development Indiators, 2007 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007), various tables. UNDP estimates. #### FIGURE 1-3. Under-five mortality rates (per 1000 live births). (Source: World Health Organization Statistical Information System, 2006.) The figure shows a map of the world with different shades of grey representing under-5 mortality rates per 1000 live births. - The lightest gray areas represent a rate of 3-15 deaths per 1000 live births, the medium gray areas represents rates 16-50, the dark gray areas represents rates 51-150 and the darkest gray areas represents rates 151-269. #### Under-five mortality rate (probability of dying by age 5 per 1000 live births) The image shows a bar chart with 4 colored bars for different regions of the world. The left vertical axis represents the "Probability of Dying by Age 5 per 1000 Live Births" from 0 to 100. - **Africa:** The blue bar is the highest with 72 deaths per 1000 live births. - **Eastern Mediterranean:** The blue bar is the second highest with 45 deaths per 1000 live births. - **South-East Asia:** The blue bar is the third highest with 29 deaths per 1000 live births. - **Americas:** The blue bar is the lowest with 13 deaths per 1000 live births. The right side of the image shows a table with a global value of "38" deaths per 1000 live births. The image also shows a horizontal bar chart with many countries and their under-5 mortality rate by both sexes and female. - **Health problems, often associated with poverty, are responsible for most of the differences in life expectancies.** - **Mortality rates for children under age five are particularly high, often 10-20 times higher than in developed countries** - **Today substantial global progress has been made in reducing childhood mortality since 1990.** - **o E.g, ** - ✓ **The total number of under-5 deaths worldwide has declined from 12.6 million in 1990 to 5 million in 2020.** - ✓ **Since 1990, the global under-5 mortality rate has dropped by 60%, (from 93 deaths per 1000 live births in 1990) to 37% in 2020. This is equivalent to 1 in 11 children dying before reaching age 5 in 1990, compared to 1 in 27 in 2020** - **Despite this, children in SSA continued to have the highest rates of mortality in the world (at 74 (68-86) deaths per 1000 live births-) - at 14 times higher than the risk for children in Europe and North America.** - **SSA and southern Asia, account for more than 80% of the 5 million under-5 deaths in 2020, while they only account for 53% of the global live births.** - **At country level** - **under-5 mortality rates in 2020 ranged from 2 deaths per 1000 live births to 115 deaths per 1000 live births** - **Half of all under-5 deaths in 2020 occurred in just 5 countries: Nigeria, India, Pakistan, DRC and Ethiopia. Nigeria and India alone account for almost a third of all deaths.** - **The risk of dying before turning 5 for a child born in the highest-mortality country was about 65 times higher than in the lowest-mortality country.** ### 1.1.5 Population Growth - How important is population growth to the food-poverty-population problem? - Statistics show that developing countries population grow faster (with high levels of urbanization) than developed countries. - These higher growth rates place pressure on available food

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