Student Decision-Making and Critical Incidents notes(1).docx

Week 12 Critical incident management &Decision making. Decision-Making and Critical Incident Management **dont read the readings for this week, she is NOT testing on them** Podcast due date moved to April 5th Critical Incident High-risk, high-stakes, or uncertain events Definitions: Canada: unpl...

Week 12 Critical incident management &Decision making. Decision-Making and Critical Incident Management **dont read the readings for this week, she is NOT testing on them** Podcast due date moved to April 5th Critical Incident High-risk, high-stakes, or uncertain events Definitions: Canada: unplanned events such as hostage takings, barricaded persons, workplace violence, and other crisis situations. UK: any incident where the effectiveness of the police response is likely to have a significant impact on the confidence of the victim, their family and/or the community. - this includes not just the event but the impact as well Community confidence Trust of police The level of criticality is defined by: Endogenous features Situational-specific conditions About the problem environment Prevent decision-makers from “situational awareness” from ambiguous information or time pressure that induces a level of doubt “Uncertainty” hard to plan too far ahead for it Exogenous features Related to the effectiveness of the response to the endogenous features About the operating system responding to the decision problem What happens after the event? Management of the problem, different teams Confusion of expectations on how to respond can compromise the effectiveness of decisions and derail the response Cross-functional aspects of people who have different backgrounds, roles, and experience - Hand sanitizer was an effect of SARS in the early 2000s (the response to SARS helped with the response to COVID as it was no longer a new phenomenon)  Examples of critical incidents Armed intruders Hostage-taking Barricaded persons Bomb threats & suspicious packages Being operated on the wrong side/site Suicide or murder of a co-worker Unmarked Graves of Indigenous Peoples, Residential Schools Nova Scotia Mass Casualty event (2020) Toronto Van attack (2018) These all had a significant impact on public safety needs experienced response teams Critical incident management (CIM) is intended to provide a response ‘that satisfies the needs of the victim, their family, and the community, but also provides an effective and proportionate outcome to an incident. Not necessarily putting the victim above what is happening but focusing on both the victim and the event What decisions are they making and what are the outcomes? The investigative cycle (very similar here), new information can be brought in at any time Preparing for Critical Incidents Current management structures to see where staff needs to be trained and having all necessary resources like PPE and communication, to make sure the response is a quality response to provide a standard protocol for incident management  Managing Critical Incidents How to identify if an event is a critical incident Processes to ensure incidents are notified to appropriate people  Early identification and notification Even small-scale incidents can have long-term impacts on the community Media communication strategies need to be considered because it can make it worse Restoring public confidence What was done well? And what wasnt? Impact on community - depends on the type of situation and could be due to the response or how the family/victims were treated The impact needs to be addressed Missteps need to be handled, may be in the form of an apology but this could also decrease public trust. A public inquiry could be made Sammy Yatim case - the police response was not proportionate to the threat and this changed Canadian policing. The family of Sammy was not considered Traditional Decision Making Classical decision theory - which states that decision-makers: Are objective Have complete information Consider all possible alternatives& their consequences Select the optimal solution Rational choice model of decision-making  RCT suggests that in order to make good decisions you gather all info and generate options about how to act and what to do, this helps evaluate your sets of possible actions Decision-making had a comprehensive list and pick the most optimal one Traditional approach to decision-making The sequence of steps that enhance the probability of attaining a desired outcome Criticisms: Rarely possible to consider all alternatives Impractical to consider all consequences The estimation process costs time and effort Information is rarely complete and/or accurate Individuals lack the mental capacity to process all the information Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) NDM is an approach to studying decisions made ‘in the field’/real-world situations Not about the optimal choice but about the individual Not telling you how but looking at how Developed because applied psychologists weren’t happy with classical approaches to decision-making A pragmatic research program that utilizes case studies to examine and analyze the decision-making of officers as they perform their responsibilities in the field Concerned with how individuals and teams use their experience to assess, make meaningful decisions, and take action in dynamic, uncertain, and time-pressured situations Experience is an important variable to consider Features of NDM: Ill-defined goals & ill-structured task Uncertainty, ambiguity, & missing data Shifting & competing gals Dynamic & continually changing conditions Action-feedback loops (real-time reactions to changed conditions) Time stress High stakes Multiple players Organizational goals & norms Experienced decision-makers Favours team work and group processes Essential Characteristics of NDM: Proficient decision-makers - people with relevant experience in the decision-making domain Process orientation - tries to describe the process of decision-makers and how they interpret information. Situation-action matching decision rules - you do A because it is appropriate for situation “S”. will it give me the outcome I want? No? Move on to the next decision. More like trial and error Context-bound informal modeling - context specific to the domain. Using your expertise to make decisions. Sensitive to what is being said and how it is being said Empirical-based prescription - actions are based on experience. Options may be optimal in some senses, it may not be applicable in all situations. What is feasible now? Studying NDM https://youtu.be/Y5Xz7nlzrZc Field studies:  Provide insight into the demand of the environment on decision-making, the affordances and constraints of those environments Simulations: Elicit similar behaviour Realistic features can be built in (i.e., temporal parameters, distractions, workload) Subjects’ behaviour can be analyzed as a function of relevant factors (i.e., levels of experience) Example: Minerva(fire/hostage simulation); Hydra; 10Kv (debriefing)  Laboratory Techniques Can be used to help further the understanding of decision-making after a level of understanding already exists in a particular domain Simulation-Based Training: Hydra - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_ww4aEduC8&t=59s Are used to conduct immersive, simulated scenarios for a wide variety of professions (e.g., police, military, emergency personnel, health care professionals) Enables the monitoring of group dynamics, real-time leadership, and naturalistic decision-making in critical incidents Benefits: Scenarios are immersive & often replicate real-life conditions Allow the person to gain experience in a safe learning environment Participants get experience working as a team in high-pressure environments Allows for formative assessments of knowledge and decision-making skills of participants Traditional Decision-making Naturalistic Decision-making Well-defined problems Ill-structured problems Not static, simulated situations Uncertain, dynamic environments Stable goals Shifting, ill-defined, or competing goals Single decision event Action/feedback loops Ample time for tasks Time constraints Void of true consequences for the decision maker High stakes Individual decision maker Multiple players Decision-making in a vacuum Organizational goals and norms Compare and contrast the two types of decision-making ^^ for the exam Heuristics and Decision-Making Are used to speed up the process of finding a satisfactory solution via mental shortcuts to ease the cognitive load of making a decision We cannot use all the information that is available all of the time Some can lead to biases in decision-making Representative Heuristic: Tendency to assess the likelihood of an event occurring based on impressions about similar occurrences. Does it belong to a specific class or grouping? We ignore sample sizes and base rates. How does it fit into the stereotypical category we have in our mind? Availability heuristic: Tendency to base decisions on information readily available in memory. Are there more words in the English language that start with the letter R or more that have R as the middle letter? R as the middle letter is the correct answer but we can easily think of words that start with R so we choose that as the answer.  Anchor and adjustment: Judgment made by starting from an initial value (anchor) and then making adjustments from that point. Focusing on ONE piece of information and thats it. Happens a lot during bargaining and salary negotiations.  Confirmation bias: Select information that confirms a current belief. Interpret information consistently with a current belief Recognition-Primed Decision-Making (RPD) Model of decision-making used in complex and uncertain situations Experienced decision-makers use a pattern recognition approach to identify familiar patterns and cues in a given situation Action script - first option that doesnt fail and what to do in the situation if it does fail Based on past experiences Requires learning and expertise Two Processes: Situation Assessment Matching current situation to past ones Determines course of action Evaluation using Mental Simulation How courses of action might play out Results in reasonable actions  More complex if the situation isnt clear. Reliance on narratives to mentally simulate the events and to consider what might happen next. Find option that is more plausible and from there they make decisions on how to act. A satisfactory option may not exist even for a familiar situation. Most complex case. Find the most feasible option. Prior experience may not be useful. Do you save 5 adults, 5 children, or 4 babies? This decision is hard and there really isn't a right answer. Decision-makers know whatever decision they make, they must explain it to the public in some way Key Features of the RPD Model Blend of intuition (pattern recognition) and analysis (mental simulation) NOT just intuition First option is usually workable  NOT random generation Satisficing NOT optimizing Evaluation through mental simulation NOT Rational Choice Focus on elaborating and improving options NOT choosing between options Focus on situation awareness NOT courses of action Decision maker primed to act NOT waiting to complete the analysis Decision Avoidance & Decision Inertia In any given situation, what if you can't think of an action without catastrophe?  Decision Avoidance The passive avoidance of a decision that needs to be made Maintaining the status quo Deferring the choice to another agency This does not apply to time constraints Decision Inertia The decision-maker  may go through options that are not good options Redundant deliberation for no positive gain Excessive information searches Inability to decide upon a course of action Least-worst decision: Decisions where every course of action could lead to negative consequences Why CI/DM Research Is Important! There is a need to incorporate some form of judgment/decision-making theory into existing training curriculums Knowing where uncertainty comes from allows more focused advice and recommendations to improve training Without prior knowledge, training, or frequent exposure, the response is generally one of stress, confusion, frustration, and fear Result → mistakes! Week 10 Investigative Interviewing An interpersonal interaction  Occur at a police station in a quiet room with limited furniture Often recorded with video and sound - Western areas mostly require this now The goal of an interview is to obtain reliable information  A confession remains of interest as it is the most powerful form of evidence but is not the first goal Witness and Victim Interviews Memory is not perfect - not a video recording. Errors occur at all stages of the memory process Misinformation happens due to errors in memory Misidentifications lead to wrongfully convicted persons - 75% due to eyewitness identification  Factors associated with accuracy Exposure duration Race - cross-race effect Memory declines quickly so retention interval is an issue in regards to accuracy Sleep can also impact eyewitness memory Confidence in selection during a lineup procedure transfers to confidence during a trial Cognitive Interview (CI) Geiselman and Fisher Eases recall process  Retrieval techniques to receive more complete reports from interviewees Theoretically informed Designed to enhance recall 40% more valid information  4 different mnemonic techniques: Report everything Mental context reinstatement Perspective altering Order varying 1 & 2 together are just as effective as all 4 when used all together Mentally reinstating context is the most beneficial Victim Interviews Information elicited can be extremely impactful on subsequent legal processes If a case reaches a courtroom, recorded interviews can help come to a decision Detailed information from the crime is a major goal of the victim interview Perceptions of credibility - moving forward with an investigation  relies on this Race and mental health issues, substance use, and relationship to the accused have been found to affect the assessments  Interpersonal crimes like rape, are highly traumatic which may impact the amount of information received by law enforcement Survivors may be reluctant to be fully forthcoming but research has found models such as PEACE that have been found to be effective Rapport between interviewer and interviewee Rapport Creating a point of connection Discuss common interests, display genuine interest, offer food/drink and bathroom breaks Suspect Interviewing “Third-degree” tactics - verbal and physical abuse Prolonged confinement, explicit threats of harm, sleep deprivation and other needs, sensory discomfort Information given from these tactics is questionable so they began to shift to other tactics Trickery and deception - false evidence, pretending they are someone they are not Criticism has come from this  Relevant Legal Factors Right to silence - in Canada, detectives are allowed to keep badgering the suspect with questions Right to legal counsel For info to be admissible in court it must be voluntary and cannot result from: Promise of leniency Threat Voluntarily Reliability Threats or promises (promise of leniency, pragmatic implications) Oppression (escape harsh treatment) Fairness Suspect must be of fperating mind when giving a confession (drunk or concussion would be inadmissible) Police trickery (that would shock the community) this is slightly vague Interviewing Approaches Reid, PEACE model, and Mr. Big Reid Technique Assessment of facts relevant to the crime Behavioral analysis interview (BAI) specifically to help investigators to sort from guilty to nonguilty 9 step interrogation Positive confrontation - based on the evidence we have you may be guilty Theme development to persuade suspect to provide information Rejecting any denials to increase the likelihood of a confession Overcoming objections- characterized as emotional, factual, and moral Gaining and keeping a suspect's attention - eg. moving closer to the interviewee Must deal with passive or seemingly defeated mood Alternative questions - a reasonable reason for committing crime  Developing the details of the admission Convert oral confession to written or recorded one  Maximization “Bad cop” Inflate perceived seriousness of crime Accusation and confrontation Intimidate suspect through manipulative tactics - lying about evidence, increasing pressure Minimization “Good cop” Reduce suspects perception of the offence Face-saving excuses, appeals to self-interest, shifting blame “You're not a bad person” “you made a mistake’ Scrutiny from public  Criticisms of Reid Technique:  Deception detection ability Guilt presumptive and coercive  Non-evidence-based - developed by a polygrapher  PEACE Model Investigative interviewer Information gathering rather than confession-based Open-mindedness 5 separate phases: Planning and preparation - time and location of interview, review case details Engage- rapport with suspect, Rights of the suspect, reason why they are there Account clarification and challenge- free narrative recall, 5 W’s, is it consistent with prior evidence and information?  Closure - consider all questions asked Evaluation - review new information, process overall Strategic use of evidence (SUE) Present evidence at strategic points throughout the interview Presenting evidence in early stages allows the suspect to amend their story for why the evidence may exist so presenting it later, can help catch the suspect in a lie Colonel Russel Williams Decorated Air Force pilot and commander 82 break and enters 1400 pieces of clothing stolen Eventually escalated to sexual assault and murder Eventually confessed  Mr. Big Non-custodial which means it occurs outside of an interrogation room Last-resort An undercover operation in Canada Extensive and long-lasting - very costly 75% “success’ rate  4 phases: Intelligence probe - collect information about the suspect's life to make a connection during the introduction stage Introduction stage Scenario development - various criminal activities, the suspect will be paid $100 an hour during this phase Evidentiary scenario - meeting the boss and must confess to all crimes committed to be “allowed” into the criminal organization Criticisms: Highly coercive. The suspect is often in a poor financial situation so they wont turn down work or peers No safeguards for suspect - right to silence and legal counsel Increased likelihood of false confessions False Confessions  20-25% of DNA exonerations involved false confessions Situational risk factors - presentation of false evidence Dispositional risk factors (low IQ, youth, mental illness) Types of False Confessions: Voluntary - Coerced-compliant - suspect knows they did not commit the crime but believe that the police think it is them so the easiest thing is to confess Coerced-internalized- a genuine belief they committed the crime Recorded lecture Investigative Interviewing An interpersonal interaction  Occur at a police station in a quiet room with limited furniture Often recorded with video and sound - Western areas mostly require this now The goal of an interview is to obtain reliable information  A confession remains of interest as it is the most powerful form of evidence but is not the first goal Witness and Victim Interviews Memory is not perfect - not a video recording. Errors occur at all stages of the memory process Misinformation happens due to errors in memory Misidentifications lead to wrongfully convicted persons - 75% due to eyewitness identification  Factors associated with accuracy Exposure duration Race - cross-race effect Memory declines quickly so retention interval is an issue in regards to accuracy Sleep can also impact eyewitness memory Confidence in selection during a lineup procedure transfers to confidence during a trial Cognitive Interview (CI) Geiselman and Fisher Eases recall process  Retrieval techniques to receive more complete reports from interviewees Theoretically informed Designed to enhance recall 40% more valid information  4 different mnemonic techniques: Report everything Mental context reinstatement Perspective altering Order varying 1 & 2 together are just as effective as all 4 when used all together Mentally context is the most beneficial Victim Interviews Information elicited can be extremely impactful on subsequent legal processes If a case reaches a courtroom, recorded interviews can help come to a decision Detailed information from the crime is a major goal of the victim interview Perceptions of credibility - moving forward with an investigation  relies on this Race and mental health issues, substance use, and relationship to the accused have been found to affect the assessments  Interpersonal crimes like rape, are highly traumatic which may impact the amount of information received by law enforcement Survivors may be reluctant to be fully forthcoming but research has found models such as PEACE that have been found to be effective Rapport between interviewer and interviewee Rapport Creating a point of connection Discuss common interests, display genuine interest, offer food/drink and bathroom breaks Suspect Interviewing “Third-degree” tactics - verbal and physical abuse Prolonged confinement, explicit threats of harm, sleep deprivation and other needs, sensory discomfort Information given from these tactics is questionable so they began to shift to other tactics Trickery and deception - false evidence, pretending they are someone they are not Criticism has come from this  Relevant Legal Factors Right to silence - in Canada, detectives are allowed to keep badgering the suspect with questions Right to legal counsel For info to be admissible in court it must be voluntary and cannot result from: Promise of leniency Threat Voluntarily Reliability Threats or promises (promise of leniency, pragmatic implications) Oppression (escape harsh treatment) Fairness Suspect must be of fperating mind when giving a confession (drunk or concussion would be inadmissible) Police trickery (that would shock the community) this is slightly vague Interviewing Approaches Reid, PEACE model, and Mr. Big Reid Technique Assessment of facts relevant to the crime Behavioral analysis interview (BAI) specifically to help investigators to sort from guilty to nonguilty 9 step interrogation Positive confrontation - based on the evidence we have you may be guilty Theme development to persuade suspect to provide information Rejecting any denials to increase the likelihood of a confession Overcoming objections- characterized as emotional, factual, and moral Gaining and keeping a suspect's attention - eg. moving closer to the interviewee Must deal with passive or seemingly defeated mood Alternative questions - a reasonable reason for committing crime  Developing the details of the admission Convert oral confession to written or recorded one  Maximization “Bad cop” Inflate perceived seriousness of crime Accusation and confrontation Intimidate suspect through manipulative tactics - lying about evidence, increasing pressure Minimization “Good cop” Reduce suspects perception of the offence Face-saving excuses, appeals to self-interest, shifting blame “You're not a bad person” “you made a mistake’ Scrutiny from public  Criticisms of Reid Technique:  Deception detection ability Guilt presumptive and coercive  Non-evidence-based - developed by a polygrapher  PEACE Model Investigative interviewer Information gathering rather than confession-based Open-mindedness 5 separate phases: Planning and preparation - time and location of interview, review case details Engage- rapport with suspect, Rights of the suspect, reason why they are there Account clarification and challenge- free narrative recall, 5 W’s, is it consistent with prior evidence and information?  Closure - consider all questions asked Evaluation - review new information, process overall Strategic use of evidence (SUE) Present evidence at strategic points throughout the interview Presenting evidence in early stages allows the suspect to amend their story for why the evidence may exist so presenting it later, can help catch the suspect in a lie Colonel Russel Williams Decorated Air Force pilot and commander 82 break and enters 1400 pieces of clothing stolen Eventually escalated to sexual assault and murder Eventually confessed  Mr. Big Non-custodial which means it occurs outside of an interrogation room Last-resort An undercover operation in Canada Extensive and long-lasting - very costly 75% “success’ rate  4 phases: Intelligence probe - collect information about the suspect's life to make a connection during the introduction stage Introduction stage Scenario development - various criminal activities, the suspect will be paid $100 an hour during this phase Evidentiary scenario - meeting the boss and must confess to all crimes committed to be “allowed” into the criminal organization Criticisms: Highly coercive. The suspect is often in a poor financial situation so they wont turn down work or peers No safeguards for suspect - right to silence and legal counsel Increased likelihood of false confessions False Confessions  20-25% of DNA exonerations involved false confessions Situational risk factors - presentation of false evidence Dispositional risk factors (low IQ, youth, mental illness) Types of False Confessions: Voluntary - Coerced-compliant - suspect knows they did not commit the crime but believe that the police think it is them so the easiest thing is to confess Coerced-internalized- a genuine belief they committed the crime