Risk Assessment & Management PDF

EXECUTIVE SHORT-TERM COURSES IN ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS TRACK B: PROFECIENCY CERTIFICATE IN ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS MODULE 1 DAY 1 SESSION 3 RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT By A. U. Yuguda, PhD....

EXECUTIVE SHORT-TERM COURSES IN ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS TRACK B: PROFECIENCY CERTIFICATE IN ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS MODULE 1 DAY 1 SESSION 3 RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT By A. U. Yuguda, PhD. Adopted From Dr. Maged Hamed, Ph.D., P.E. Regional Safeguard Coordinator & Co-TTL of SPESSE The Environment Global Practice of the West and Central Africa - SAWE4 November, 2023 Copyright © All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the National Universities Commission of Nigeria and the World Bank, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the Executive Secretary, National Universities Commission, Abuja-Nigeria, Attention: Coordinator, Special Projects, and to the World Bank, Attention: Dr. Maged Hamed, Lead Environmental Specialist. Content of the Session Definition of Risk and Risk Assessment Glossary of Terms Factors for Determining Risks Human Health Risk assessment Ecological Risk Assessment Climate Change Risk Assessment Program/Project Risk Assessment For the Environment and Social Assessment Hazard vs Risk Hazard - Source or situation with a potential for harm to workers or other people, or the environment. Risk – The “likelihood” that something bad would happen to people or the environment. Therefore, Risk combines likelihood and severity or consequence of a specific hazardous event. Hazard vs Risk The tiger in the cage illustrates the hazard, and when locked in the cage there is a low risk of a harmful event, but if the tiger escapes the risk of health effect is very high. © University of Bergen Types of Hazards Physical Hazards Copyright: Michael Hall, The World Bank Chemical Hazards Copyright: Michael Hall, The World Bank Biological Hazards Mechanical Hazards Copyright: Michael Hall, The World Bank Psychological Hazards Shift work, workload, dealing with the public, harassment, discrimination, threat of danger, constant low-level noise, stress, violence, etc., Copyright: Michael Hall, The World Bank  Glossary of Terms Constraints are conditions that lead to suboptimal performance. Dose response Assessment: Examines relationship between exposure and effects Exposure Assessment: Examines what is known about the frequency, timing, and levels of contact with a stressor Hazard Identification: Examines whether a stressor has the potential to cause harm to humans and/or ecological systems, and if so, under what circumstances. Risk Characterization: Examines how well the data support conclusions about the nature and extent of the risk from exposure to environmental stressors. Risk description provides information important for interpreting the risk results and identifies a level for harmful effects on the plants and animals of concern in an ecological risk assessment. Trends are longer-term or “chronic” patterns (reversible or irreversible) that provide context Variability refers to a natural range of variation in environmental conditions and in responses of organisms to stressors. Exposure may vary from one person to the next depending on factors such as where one works, time spent indoors or out, where one lives, and what people eat or drink. Uncertainty refers to our inability to know for sure - it is often due to incomplete data Definition of Risk It is the chance of harmful effects to human health or to ecological systems resulting from exposure to an environmental stressor. A stressor is any physical, chemical, or biological entity that can induce an adverse effect in humans or ecosystems. Stressors may adversely affect specific natural resources or entire ecosystems, including plants and animals, as well as the environment with which they interact. Risks are uncertain events that have the probability to cause losses. The element of uncertainty is present Risk is the possibility that harm might occur when exposed to hazard Ref: https://www.epa.gov/risk/about-risk-assessment Three Factors to Determine Risk How much of a stressor is present in an environmental medium (e.g., soil, water, air) over what geographic area, How much contact (exposure) a person or ecological receptor has with the contaminated environmental medium, and How it affects the health of humans (e.g., toxicity) or ecological receptors (e.g., fish killed by lack of oxygen).  Risk= Likelihood x Consequence Likelihood A typical rating scale Rating Likelihood ( Probability/Frequency) 5 Almost certain 4 Likely 3 Possible 2 Unlikely 1 Rare Graham Ashford. Environment Risk Assessment and Management https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCPIgAcR2SI&ab_channel=GrahamAshford Consequence: Consequence/Severity Scale Typical Consequence/Severity of Scale Consequence Descriptor Possible Impacts Rating 5 Catastrophic Very High, acute or long-term impacts, likely fatalities. Loss of license 4 Severe Serious environmental impacts possible fatalities or major permanent injuries, potential litigations 3 Moderate Serious ,medium-term environmental impacts, significant lost injury 2 Mild Moderate short-term impact, may cause injuries, fines 1 Negligible Small localized environmental impact, minor inures, no fines  Risk Matrix The purpose is to standardize the assessment of risks Severity of risks Likelihood categories Acceptable risks Unacceptable risks Trigger of Management actions Graham Ashford. Environment Risk Assessment and Managementhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCPIgAcR2SI&ab_channel=GrahamAshford Quantifying Risk: Risk Matrix Graham Ashford. Evironment Risk Assessment and Management https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCPIgAcR2SI&ab_channel=GrahamAshford Rating Risk Actions Consequence 1 2 3 4 5 Vs Likelihood Low Risk 10 Management action is required 4 4 8 12 14 16 5 5 10 15 20 25 Four Types of Risk Assessment Are Presented Human Health Risk assessment Ecological Risk Assessment Climate Change Risk Assessment Program/Project Risk Assessment For the Environment and Social Assessment Human Health Risk Assessment It consists of the following : Step 1: Hazard Identification Step 2: Dose response Assessment Step 3: Exposure Assessment Step 4: Risk Characterization (https:// www.epa.gov/risk/human-health-riskassessment) Planning and Scoping The following questions are required for planning and scoping ❑ Who/What/Where is at risk? (individual? population? Segment of the population (children, youth, aged etc) ❑ What is the environmental hazard of concern ( radiation? microbiological? viruses? socio- economic) ❑ Exposure pathways (air, water , groundwater, solid waste, food, animals) ❑ What are the health effects? I cancer, liver, heart, nerve, skin diseases??) ❑ How long (acute, sub-chronic, chronic) ❑ Timing (at what specific time) Step1: Hazard Identification. Hazard Identification The objective of Step 1 is to identify the types of adverse health effects that can be caused by exposure to some agent in question, and to characterize the quality and weight of evidence supporting this identification. Hazard Identification is the process of determining whether exposure to a stressor can cause an increase in the incidence of specific adverse health effects (e.g., cancer, birth defects). It is also whether the adverse health effect is likely to occur in humans. In the case of chemical stressors, the process examines the available scientific data for a given chemical (or group of chemicals) and develops a weight of evidence to characterize the link between the negative effects and the chemical agent. Exposure to a stressor may generate many different adverse effects in a human: diseases, formation of tumors, reproductive defects, death, or other effects When data from human studies are unavailable, data from animal studies (rats, mice, rabbits, monkeys, dogs, etc) are relied on to draw inference about the potential hazard to humans. Step 2: Dose Response Dose Response Assessment A dose response relationship described how the likelihood and severity of adverse health effects. The responses are related to the amount and condition of exposure to an agent with the dose provided Typically, as the dose increases, the measured response also increases. An example of dose response of air pollution is (Disability Adjusted Life year (DALY). The Disability-Adjusted Life-Year (DALY) is a metric that combines the burden of mortality and morbidity (non-fatal health problems) into a single number. It is the primary metric used by the World Health Organization to assess the global burden of disease, and the primary metric used by projects such as the Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries report to quantify the cost- effectiveness of different programs. DALY could represent 1 year of life lost (due to early death), 1.67 years spent with blindness, 5.24 significant malaria episodes, 41.67 years spent with intestinal obstruction due to ascariasis (a parasite), or many possible combinations of these and other symptoms http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/en/index.html (accessed April 15, 2010). Archived by WebCite® at http://www.webcitation.org/5p118giwH. Dose-Response Curve Source: Joseph Feher, in Quantitative Human Physiology (Second Edition), 2017. Step3: Exposure Assessment Step 3: Exposure Assessment Exposure assessment is the process of measuring or estimating the magnitude, frequency, and duration of human exposure to an agent in the environment or estimating future exposures for an agent that has not yet been released. An exposure assessment includes some discussion of the size, nature, and types of human populations exposed to the agent, as well as discussion of the uncertainties in the above information. Exposure can be measured directly, but more commonly is estimated indirectly through consideration of measured concentrations in the environment, consideration of models of chemical transport and fate in the environment and estimates of human intake over time. EPA defines exposure as 'contact between an agent and the visible exterior of a person (e.g., skin and openings into the body) Types of Exposure Source: https://www.factstoaction.org/common-exposures.html The Objective of Step 4 is to Summarize and Integrate Information from the proceeding steps of the risk assessment to synthesize an overall conclusion about risk.  Risk Characterization The objective of Step 4 is to summarize and integrate information from the proceeding steps of the risk assessment to synthesize an overall conclusion about risk. and provide the likelihood of any of the adverse effects will occur in exposed people In practice, each component of the risk assessment (e.g. hazard assessment, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment) has an individual risk characterization written to carry forward the key findings, assumptions, limitations, and uncertainties. The set of these individual risk characterizations provide the information basis to write an integrative risk characterization analysis. Planning of an Ecological Assessment Planning is the initial phase of an ecological risk assessment. Given some overlap with a concurrent human health risk assessment, planning of both can occur together. Ecological risk assessments also inform an environmental damage assessment in which loss of ecological services (e.g., flood protection, fishable waters) will be valued monetarily. The risk assessment’s purpose determines who participates in planning. The products of planning an ecological risk assessment include definition of the management goals, management options to be evaluated, and the overall scope and complexity of the risk assessment. https://www.epa.gov/risk/conducting-ecological-risk-assessment Problem Formulation The purpose is to specify the exact assessment endpoints, methods, and data that will be evaluated. Planning and Problem Formulation can overlap substantially. Both articulate the purpose for the assessment, define the problem, and make a plan for analyzing and characterizing risk. Analysis of the Exposure and Effects The objective of the analysis phase is to evaluate ecological responses to stressors under exposure conditions of interest. Risk assessors assess exposure by determining which receptors (e.g., plants, animals) are or are likely to be exposed and to what degree they would be exposed. The exposure assessment describes the course a stressor takes from the source to the receptor (e.g., runoff from fields into a lake) and how exposure occurs (e.g., food ingestion or whole-body exposure in water taking onto consideration bio-accumulation Risk Characterization The objective of the risk characterization phase is to use the results of analysis to estimate the risk posed to the ecological assessment endpoints. The assessment should: ❑ Describe the overall risk; ❑ Indicate the overall degree of confidence in the risk estimates; ❑ Summarize uncertainties; ❑ Cite evidence supporting exposure, stressor-response, and risk estimates; and ❑ Interpret the adversity of ecological effects.  Human Health vs Ecological Risk Assessment ❑ Similar structure – both types of risk ❑ Human health risk assessment are usually assessments consist of a problem concerned with protecting life of individual formulation, hazard assessment, exposure human beings. Ecological risk assessment are assessment and risk characterization. more concerned about populations of organisms (e.g. individual species of fish in a ❑ Both can use models to estimate exposure to river) or ecological integrity (e.g. will the receptors (i.e., human health risk types of species living in the river change assessment assess exposure to humans via over time?) ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact, while ecological risk assessments may assess ❑ Ecological risk assessment exposure models exposure to terrestrial animals via are like human health risk assessment ingestion). exposure models. The same models also consider foraging range for animals. ❑ Both compare measured environmental chemical concentrations against ❑ Larger reliance on signs of impacts (toxicity environmental quality guidelines in the studies, measurements of fish health, problem formulation phase. aquatic insect surveys, visible abnormalities on animals or discoloration of plants) Example: Risk Assessment in the Agricultural Sector For Practitioners An Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment (ASRA) is an orderly process to analyze, identify, and prioritize risk, which serves as the basis for the design of risk management strategies Agricultural risk is the principal cause of transient food insecurity and disruption to agricultural supply chains. It creates a poverty trap and causes volatile economic growth in many developing economies The primary objective is to help decision makers understand the risk exposure of agricultural sector stakeholders and to identify risk management strategies for prioritized risks The majority of the world’s projected 9 billion people by 2050 will be located in developing countries and will be disproportionately affected by climate change Ref: The World Bank, 2016, Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment Methodological Guidance for Practitioners.  Key Components Of Agricultural Risk Management TASKS RISKS STAKEHOLDERS STRATEGIES INTERVENTIONS Identify Production Producers Mitigation Policy reform Investments Assess Market Commercia Transfer l sector Technical Manage Enabling Coping assistance Public sector Env The World Bank, 2016, Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment Methodological Guidance for Practitioners , figure 2.1 Risk Classification Example Risk Prioritization Matrix For All Crops In Malawi Software Tools For Risk Assessment and Management The purpose of the software tools is to provide project managers with a tool for identifying and planning for potential project risks. There are a number of software available on the market of the types of businesses. The software will help determine what data you need to collect from your business areas, define key terms, and outline suggested answer selections. It also automatically generates risk maps based on your data and includes step-by-step instructions for use to improve your risk management program, benchmark key results and provide a series of mitigation controls. Climate Change Risk, Impacts and Response In the context of climate change, risks can arise from potential impacts of climate change as well as human responses to climate change. Relevant adverse consequences include those on lives, livelihoods, health and wellbeing, economic, social and cultural assets and investments, infrastructure, services (including ecosystem services), ecosystems and species In the context of climate change impacts, risks result from dynamic interactions between climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of the affected human or ecological system to the hazards. Hazards, exposure and vulnerability may each be subject to uncertainty in terms of magnitude and likelihood of occurrence, and each may change over time and space due to socio-economic changes and human decision-making (see also risk management, adaptation, mitigation). In the context of climate change responses, risks result from the potential for such responses not achieving the intended objective(s), or from potential trade-offs with, or negative side-effects on, other societal objectives, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (see also risk trade-off). Risks can arise for example from uncertainty in implementation, effectiveness or outcomes of climate policy, climate- related investments, technology development or adoption, and system transitions Ref: The concept of the risk in the IPCC sixth Assessment Report, 4 September2020 Core definition of risks The ‘core’ definition of risk is “the potential for adverse consequences” ❑ The word “potential” makes clear that uncertainty, or more broadly, incomplete knowledge (as defined in IPCC), is a key element of the concept of risk. This uncertainty does not necessarily have to be quantified ❑ In IPCC use, risk refers only to negative (“adverse”) consequences; the potential for positive outcomes should be described using other terminology (such as ‘opportunity’ or ‘potential benefit/co-benefit. Use risk where you are explicitly considering potential adverse consequences and the uncertainty relating to those consequences. ❑ Several climate change impacts or responses to climate change hold the potential for both beneficial and adverse consequences. a specific impact of or response to climate change would represent predominantly an adverse consequence and thus the label ‘risk’ is appropriate ❑ Risk in IPCC use applies only to “human or ecological systems”. ❑ Risk applies to both impacts of and responses to climate change. ❑ Use risk to improve the ability for decision-makers to understand and manage risk. World Bank Methodology on Climate and Disaster Screening Tools The tools apply an Exposure–Impact–Adaptive-capacity framework to assess risks. The framework incorporates elements of the risk analysis framework adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the framework for vulnerability assessment used by the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID’s), with some modifications. National/Policy Level Tool Methodology Project Level Tool Methodology Key Terms  National/Policy Level Tool Methodology The national/policy level tool is designed to walk users through a series of steps to understand the level of risk posed by climate and other natural hazards at an early stage of planning and design of national or sector-wide strategies, development policy, institutional strengthening and/or reforms. The tool does this by making data on climate change (historic, projected) available in an accessible manner. The tool helps the user connect this information to the broader development context at the sector level. The tool includes an Institutional Readiness Scorecard (IRS), which provides a rapid assessment framework to score current client institutional and adaptive capacity at the national/sector level. There are four distinct, but interrelated, stages that users follow. First, the user identifies priority sectors required to achieve country goals, which the user will rate for risk in the rest of the tool. Second, the user gathers information on climate and other hazards in the country and rates the potential impact of the hazards on each priority sector. Third, the user rates the institutional readiness, which is a measure of the country’s ability to respond successfully to the hazards. Fourth, the user determines overall risk by jointly considering the potential impacts and institutional readiness, along with the larger economic and social context that could influence the level of risk Ref: [email protected] National Policy Level Methodology A Project Level Screening Tool The project tools are designed to walk users through a series of steps to understand the level of risk posed by climate and other natural hazards at an early stage of project design. The tools do this by making data on climate change (historic, projected) available. The tools help users connect this information to project components and allow users to account for non-physical components such as institutional capacity and the larger development context. Through this process they help users arrive at the risk to the outcome/service level intended from the project. There are four distinct, but interrelated, stages that users follow. First, the user evaluates the extent to which their project/location will be exposed to each hazard. Second, the user combines this information with their understanding of the project’s physical components to assess potential impact from each hazard. Third, the user examines how relevant non-physical factors, such as institutional capacity and the larger economic and social context, influence the level of risk posed to the project. Fourth, based on these considerations, the user rates the overall risk to the project outcome. A PDF of the overall project risk profile is produced. A Project Level Screening Tool Useful World Bank Resources on Climate Screening Tools Below are some additional resources that provide information on climate data, climate change impacts and adaptation, and other useful information that can help you better understand climate and disaster risks to your national- or project-level activities. The resources are organized by tools. https://climatescreeningtools.worldbank.org/ Road tool resources useful-resources Water tool resources Climate data resources Other resources National/Policy Level tool resources Online data resources on climate and gender Agriculture tool resources Other tools that can be used for initial Coastal Flood Protection tool resources screening Energy tool resources Other tools that can be used for post screening General tool resources Outreach materials Health tool resources https://climatescreeningtools.worldbank.org/useful-resources Types of risks related to climate change Physical risks involve risks from climate change including risk to facilities and infrastructure, impact on operations, water and raw material availability and supply chain disruptions. Transition risks: typically refer to risks associated with transition to a low carbon economy. Solvency risk: the risk from reduction in credit ratings due to potential adverse consequences of climate change or climate policy, resulting in higher financing costs for investors, countries and municipalities. This includes liquidity risk or the risk of not being able to access funds Liability risk: lack of response to climate change creates risk of liability for failure to accurately assess risk of climate change to company infrastructure and business lines, failure to assess and plan for climate change impacts before decision- making, and failure to protect people from impacts of climate change Technology risk: refers to situations where reliance on a particular technology to achieve an outcome creates the potential for adverse consequences if the technology fails to be developed or deployed Policy risk: changes in policy or regulations in response to climate change could result in the loss of value of assets e.g. climate policy creating stranded assets due to emissions pricing or regulatory changes. Market risk: changes in relative prices from increased prices of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions could reduce financial returns and hence increase risks to investors Residual risk: is the risk that remains following adaptation and risk reduction efforts. Schematic of the interaction among the physical climate system, exposure, and vulnerability producing risk. Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system (left side) and socioeconomic processes (right side) are central drivers of the different core components (vulnerability, exposure, and hazards) that constitute risk Reference Ref: Oppenheimer, M., M. Campos, R.Warren, J. Birkmann, G. Luber, B. O’Neill, and K. Takahashi, 2014: Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea What do we mean by E&S risk and impacts in Projects/Programs? In very simple terms E&S risks in investment project, may be defined as … “The possibility that something of environmental or social value will be lost or damaged as a result of a Project action.” “An E&S impact is a risk-realized” or… “An impact is a risk with 100% certainty of occurring” 56 Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts Risk and impact includes several key concepts: Environmental and Social Values Nature of harm, loss or damage Probability or likelihood of occurrence Severity of harm, loss or damage 57 Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts What are examples of environmental and social values? Environment Values Social Values Air and water quality Human health Biodiversity Property and belongings Landscape aesthetics Community integrity Spiritual value derived from Livelihoods nature Fairness and equity Rights Natural resources Protections for vulnerable individuals Ecosystem services and groups 58 Coverage of Wide Range of Risks New E&S risks are to be fully introduced and addressed in the revised E&S standards: Labor and Working Conditions Disadvantaged and Vulnerable Groups Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV) Communities Health and Safety Environmental and Social Risks The ESA process will take into account all relevant environmental and social risks and impacts of the project, including: (a) Environmental risks and impacts, including: i. those defined by the EHSGs; ii. those related to community safety (including dam safety and safe use of pesticides); iii. those related to climate change and other transboundary or global risks and impacts; iv. any material threat to the protection, conservation, maintenance and restoration of natural habitats and biodiversity; and v. those related to ecosystem services and the use of living natural resources, such as fisheries and forests; (b) Social risks and impacts, including: i. threats to human security through the escalation of personal, communal or inter-state conflict, crime or violence; ii. risks that project impacts fall disproportionately on individuals and groups who, because of their particular circumstances, may be disadvantaged or vulnerable; iii. any prejudice or discrimination toward individuals or groups in providing access to development resources and project benefits, particularly in the case of those who may be disadvantaged or vulnerable; iv. negative economic and social impacts relating to the involuntary taking of land or restrictions on land use; v. risks or impacts associated with land and resettlement and vi. impacts on the health, safety and well-being of workers and project-affected communities; and vii. risks to cultural heritage. Risk Classification Pursuant to the ES Policy, a Project (including all subprojects) classified as High Risk, Substantial Risk, Moderate Risk or Low Risk taking into account relevant potential risks and impacts, such as: The type, location, sensitivity and scale of the Project including the physical considerations of the Project; type of infrastructure (e.g., dams and reservoirs, power plants, airports, major roads); volume of hazardous waste management and disposal. The nature and magnitude of the potential ES risks and impacts (whether they are irreversible, unprecedented or complex); resettlement activities; presence of Indigenous Peoples; and possible mitigation measures considering the mitigation hierarchy; The capacity and commitment of the Borrower to manage such risks and impacts in a manner consistent with the ESSs, including the country’s policy, legal and institutional framework; the Borrower’s technical and institutional capacity, its track record of past Project implementation; and the financial and human resources available for management of the Project; other areas of risk that may be relevant to the delivery of ES mitigation measures and outcomes of the specific project including the nature of the mitigation and technology being proposed, considerations relating to domestic and/or regional stability, conflict or security. Ref ESF Directive Classification of High-Risk Project A Project is considered as a High Risk if it has the following characteristics; ❑ Long term, permanent and/or irreversible (e.g., loss of major natural habitat or conversion of wetland), and impossible to avoid entirely due to the nature of the Project; ❑ High in magnitude and/or in spatial extent (the geographical area or size of the population likely to be affected is large to very large); ❑ Significant adverse cumulative impacts; ❑ Significant adverse transboundary impacts; and ❑A high probability of serious adverse effects to human health and/or the environment (e.g., due to accidents, toxic waste disposal, etc.) Classification of High-Risk Project (ctd..) ❑ The area likely to be affected is of high value and sensitivity, for example sensitive and valuable ecosystems and habitats, land for indigenous people, complex involuntary resettlement, impact on cultural heritage etc ❑ Some of the significant adverse ES risk and impacts of the Project cannot be mitigated because of complex technology, sophisticated social analysis ❑ There are significant concerns that the adverse social impacts of the Project may give rise to significant social conflict or harm or significant risks to human security. and/or There is a history of unrest in the area of the Project or the sector ❑ The Project is being developed in a legal and regulatory framework that is contradictory and the enforcement is weak ,The past experience and poor track record of the Borrower would present serios challenges given the project impacts and risks and There are significant concerns related to the capacity and commitment for, and track record of relevant Project parties, in relation to stakeholder engagement. Classification of a Substantial Risk Project A Project is classified as Substantial Risk whenever ❑ the Project may not be as complex as High-Risk Projects, its ES scale and impact may be smaller (large to medium) and the location may not be in such a highly sensitive area, and some risks and impacts may be significant ❑ The risks and impacts are mostly temporary, predictable and/or reversible; they are medium in magnitude and/or in spatial extent (the geographical area and size of the population likely to be affected are medium to large); ❑ there are concerns that the adverse social impacts of the Project, and the associated mitigation measures, may give rise to a limited degree of social conflict, harm or risks to human security; ❑ the potential for cumulative and/or transboundary impacts may exist, but they are less severe and more readily avoided or mitigated than for High-Risk Projects; ❑ there is medium to low probability of serious adverse effects to human health and/or the environment ❑ The effects of the Project on areas of high value or sensitivity, on Mitigatory and/or compensatory measures are expected to be lower than High Risk Projects. ❑ The Project is being developed in a legal and regulatory framework that is contradictory and the enforcement is weak which could be addressed through implementation support ❑ There are some concerns over capacity and experience in managing stakeholder engagement, but these could be readily addressed through implementation support. Classification of a Moderate Risk Project A project is classified as Moderate Risk after considering, in an integrated manner, the risks and impacts of the Project, taking into account the following, as applicable: A. The potential adverse risks and impacts on human populations and/or the environment are not likely to be significant. This is because the Project is not complex and/or large, does not involve activities that have a high potential for harming people or the environment, and is located away from environmentally or socially sensitive areas. As such, the potential risks and impacts and issues are likely to have the following characteristics: ❑ Predictable and expected to be temporary and/or reversible; ❑ Low in magnitude; ❑ Site-specific, without likelihood of impacts beyond the actual footprint of the Project; and ❑ Low probability of serious adverse effects to human health and/or the environment (e.g., do not involve use or disposal of toxic materials, routine safety precautions are expected to be sufficient to prevent accidents, etc.) B. The Project’s risks and impacts can be easily mitigated in a predictable manner. Classification of a Low-Risk Project and the Bank Support for ESA A project is classified as Low Risk if its potential adverse risks to and impacts on human populations and/or the environment are likely to be minimal or negligible. These Projects, with few or no adverse risks and impacts and issues, do not require further ES assessment following the initial screening. The Borrower carries out an ES assessment of the Project in accordance with the requirements of ESS1. The Bank assists the Borrower in determining the process to be followed, and the different methods and tools to be used by the Borrower to carry out the ES assessment and to document the results of such assessment. As necessary, the Bank assists the Borrower in preparing the terms of reference for any tools (including those required by specific ESSs) to be used as part of the ES assessment, ensuring that these reflect the need for adequate inter-agency coordination at the country level and consultation with stakeholders. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE AND ATTENTION ANY QUESTIONS ??