PRB's Population Handbook 6th Edition 2011 PDF

PRB’s Population Handbook A quick guide to population dynamics for journalists, policymakers, teachers, students, and other people interested in demographics BY A R T H U R H AU P T, T H O M A S T. K A N E , A N D C A R L H AU B 6TH EDITION 2011 www.prb.org...

PRB’s Population Handbook A quick guide to population dynamics for journalists, policymakers, teachers, students, and other people interested in demographics BY A R T H U R H AU P T, T H O M A S T. K A N E , A N D C A R L H AU B 6TH EDITION 2011 www.prb.org POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU  POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU The Population Reference Bureau INFORMS people around the world about population, health, and the environment, and EMPOWERS them to use that information to ADVANCE the well-being of current and future generations. Copyright ©1978, 1985, 1988, 1991, 1998, 2004, 2011 OFFICERS by the Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. Martin Vaessen, Chair of the Board Director, Demographic and Health Research Division, ICF Macro, Sixth edition Calverton, Maryland Printed in the U.S.A. Margaret Neuse, Vice Chair of the Board Twelfth printing, 2011 Independent Consultant, Washington, D.C. Stanley Smith, Secretary of the Board Professor and Director, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data University of Florida, Gainesville Haupt, Arthur, 1945- Richard F. Hokenson, Treasurer of the Board Director, Hokenson and Company, Lawrenceville, New Jersey Population Reference Bureau’s Population Handbook Wendy Baldwin, President and Chief Executive Officer (Sixth edition) Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C. 1. Population—Handbooks, manuals, etc. 2. Demography—Handbooks, manuals, etc. I. Kane, TRUSTEES George Alleyne, Director Emeritus, Pan American Health Organization/ Thomas T. 1951- II. Population Reference Bureau. World Health Organization, Washington, D.C. III. Title. IV. Title: Population handbook. Felicity Barringer, National Correspondent, Environment, HB871.H357 1991 304.6’02’02 91-66596 The New York Times, San Francisco ISSN 0-917136-12-8 Marcia Carlson, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison Elizabeth Chacko, Associate Professor of Geography and International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C. Bert T. Edwards, Retired Partner, Arthur Andersen LLP, and former CFO, U.S. State Department, Washington, D.C. Francis L. Price, President and Chief Executive Officer, Interact Performance Systems and Magna Saxum Partners in Cleveland, Ohio To become a PRB member or to order PRB materials, contact and Anaheim, California. PRB, 1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520, Washington, DC Michael Wright, Managing Director for Coastal East Africa, 20009-5728; Tel.: 800-877-9881; Fax: 202-328-3937; World Wildlife Fund, Washington, D.C. E-mail: [email protected]; Website: www.prb.org. Montague Yudelman, Former Director, Agriculture and Rural The suggested citation, if you quote from this publication, is: Development, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Population Reference Bureau’s Population Handbook (Sixth Edition). For permission to reproduce portions from the Population Handbook, write to PRB, Attn: Permissions; or e-mail: [email protected]. PRB’s Population Handbook 6th Edition 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS BY A R T H U R H AU P T, T H O M A S T. K A N E , A N D C A R L H AU B ABOUT POPULATION................................................................................. 2 Now in its sixth edition, PRB’s Population Handbook is also AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION.................................................................. 4 available online. Each updated chapter is on PRB’s website, FERTILITY................................................................................................... 9 www.prb-population-handbook-2011.aspx. www.prb.org/Reports/2011/prb-population-handbook-2011. aspx. FACTORS AFFECTING FERTILITY.......................................................... 14 Since its publication in 1978, PRB’s Population Handbook has appeared in several languages and has been circulated MORTALITY............................................................................................... 16 Since its publication in 1978, PRB’s Population Handbook around the world. It has been used by thousands of teachers has appeared in several languages and has been circulated MORBIDITY............................................................................................... 21 and students in fields such as sociology, geography, and around the world. It has been used by thousands of teachers urban studies. Journalists refer to the handbook as an NUPTIALITY.............................................................................................. 23 and students in fields such as sociology, geography, and authoritative guide in preparing population-related stories, urban studies. Journalists refer to the handbook as an MIGRATION............................................................................................... 24 while policymakers and planners have found it to be a ready authoritative guide in preparing population-related stories, reference to the rates, ratios, and concepts of demography. RACE AND ETHNICITY............................................................................ 26 while policymakers and planners have found it to be a ready Understanding the broad implications of population change reference to the rates, ratios, and concepts of demography. HOUSEHOLDS AND FAMILIES................................................................ 27 is important to those who make decisions and inform others Understanding the broad implications of population change about demographic change around the world. URBANIZATION AND DISTRIBUTION.................................................... 28 is important to those who make decisions and inform others about demographic change around the world. POPULATION CHANGE............................................................................ 29 POPULATION HANDBOOK www.prb.org 1  ABOUT POPULATION Everyone is a member of a population, and population factors have an impact on many facets of life—from where we live to the prices we pay for goods and services. The need for health care preoccupies the political leaders of the industrialized countries whose populations are “aging,” while the need for classrooms, employment opportunities, and housing preoccupies the leaders of countries that are still growing rapidly. Population conditions influence history. Likewise, historical events can significantly affect populations. Wars can decimate a generation of men, as happened in the 20th century in the then-Soviet Union, France, Iraq, and several other countries. The discovery of new medicines often leads to increases in life expectancy, and different causes of death become more prominent. Alternatively, population change may sound a warning of other important changes. Environmental contamination may be detected first by increased reports of illness and rising mortality rates in certain geographic areas. In all these ways and more, population is news. Population information is best communicated in terms of numbers and rates. It is not enough to know that life expectancy is increasing. How many years are being added? Over what time period has the change occurred? Which people are affected? What proportion of the population do they represent? Such information is more meaningful when it provides an indication of the magnitude and distribution of the phenomenon, as well as the trend. To be useful, data must be expressed clearly as well as accurately. Birth rates are often confused with growth rates; declining growth rates are sometimes mistakenly equated with declining population size. Demography is the scientific study of population. Demographers seek to know the levels and trends in population size and its components. They search for explanations of demographic change and their implications for societies. They use censuses, birth and death records, surveys, visa records, even motor vehicle and school registrations. They shape these data into manageable forms such as simple counts, rates, or ratios. Most of the principal measures used in demography are defined on the following pages, together with recent examples of their use. The purpose of this Population Handbook is to clarify and explain demographic terms to journalists, policymakers, teachers, students, and others who need to understand and communicate about population. The Tools of Demography COUNT The absolute number of a population or any demographic event occurring in a specified area in a specified time period. (For example, 2,027,000 live births occurred in Egypt in 2010.) The raw quantities of demographic events are the basis of all other statistical refinements and analyses. RATE The frequency of demographic events in a population during a specified time period (usually a year) divided by the population “at risk” of the event occurring during that time period. Rates tell how common it is for a given event to occur. (For example, in 2008 in Zambia the death rate was 16 per 1,000 population.) Most rates are expressed per 1,000 population. Crude rates are rates computed for an entire population. Specific rates are computed for a subgroup, usually the population more nearly approximating the population “at risk” of the event. (For example, the general fertility rate is the number of births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 49.) Thus, rates can be age-specific, sex-specific, race-specific, occupation-specific, and so on. In practice, some measures that are referred to as rates would be more accurately termed ratios. RATIO The relation of one population subgroup to the total population or to another subgroup; that is, one subgroup divided by another. (For example, the sex ratio in France in 2010 was 94 males per 100 females.) 2 www.prb.org POPULATION HANDBOOK  PROPORTION The relation of a population subgroup to the entire population; that is, a population subgroup divided by the entire population. (For example, the proportion of Vietnam’s population in 2008 classified as urban was 29 percent.) CONSTANT An unchanging, arbitrary number (for example, 100 or 1,000 or 100,000) by which rates, ratios, or proportions can be multiplied to express these measures in a more understandable fashion. For example, 0.0184 0.00184abortions abortionsper perwoman womanofofreproductive reproductiveageageoccured occuredininHungary Hungaryinin2008. 2008.Multiplying Multiplyingthis thisrate ratebybya a constant (1,000) gives the same statistic in terms of 1,000 people. This is a clearer way of expressing the same thing: There were 18.4 births abortions per per 1,0001,000 women. women. In formulas In the the formulas on following on the the following pages, pages, “K” “K” means means constant. constant. COHORT MEASURE A statistic that measures events occurring to a cohort (a group of people sharing a common demographic experience) who are observed through time. The most commonly used cohort is the birth cohort—people born in the same year or period. Other kinds of cohorts include marriage cohorts and school class cohorts. PERIOD MEASURE A statistic that measures events occurring to all or part of a population during one period of time; this measure “takes a snapshot” of a population, in effect. (For example, the emigration rate of the entire Norwegian population in 2009 was 5.5 per 1,000.) POPULATION HANDBOOK www.prb.org 3  AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION Age and sex are the most basic characteristics of a population. Every population has a different age and sex composition—the number and proportion of males and females in each age group—and this structure can have considerable impact on the population’s current and future social and economic situation. ‘Young’ and ‘Old’ Populations Some populations are relatively young, that is, they have a large proportion of people in the younger age groups. The high-fertility countries of Africa with large proportions of young adults and children are examples. Other populations are relatively old, such as many countries in Europe. These two types of populations have markedly different age compositions; as a consequence, they also have different proportions of the population in the labor force or in school, as well as different medical needs, consumer preferences, and even crime patterns. A population’s age structure has a great deal to do with how that population lives. Developing countries have relatively young populations while most developed countries have old or “aging” populations. In many developing countries, 40 percent or more of the population is under age 15, while 4 percent is 65 or older. On the other hand, in virtually every developed country, less than 25 percent of the population is under age 15 and more than 10 percent is 65 or older. Median Age The median age is the age at which exactly half the population is older and half is younger. The median age of the Costa Rican population in 2009 was 28 years. In 2009, the median age of Niger, a country with a very young population, was 15, while that of Japan was 45, signifying an older population. Sex Ratio The sex ratio is the ratio of males to females in a given population, usually expressed as the number of males for every 100 females. The sex ratio at birth in most countries is about 105 males per 100 females. After birth, sex ratios vary because of different patterns of mortality and migration for males and females within the population. Number of males x K = 30,413,779 x 100 = 93.9 Number of females 32,379,653 In 2010, there were 94 males per 100 females in France. In Russia in 2010, the sex ratio for ages 25 to 29 was 101; for ages 70 and older it was 42. Age-Dependency Ratio The age-dependency ratio is the ratio of people in the “dependent” ages (those under age 15 and ages 65 and older) to those in the “economically productive” ages (15 to 64 years) in a population. The age-dependency ratio is often used as an indicator of the economic burden the productive portion of a population must carry—even though some people defined as “dependent” are producers and some people in the “productive” ages are economically dependent. 4 www.prb.org POPULATION HANDBOOK  Countries with very high birth rates usually have the highest age-dependency ratios because of the large proportion of children in the population. The age-dependency ratio is sometimes divided into old-age dependency (the ratio of people ages 65 and older to those ages 15 to 64) and child dependency (the ratio of people under age 15 to those ages 15 to 64). Population under age 15 15,384,000 + Population ages 65 and older x K = + 417,000 x 100 = 106.3 Population ages 15-64 14,860,000 The age-dependency ratio in Uganda in 2009 was 106. This means that there were 106 people in the dependent ages for every 100 people in the working ages. By contrast, Guatemala had an age-dependency ratio of 85 in 2010, with 42 percent of its population under age 15 and 4 percent ages 65 and older. In Japan, the age-dependency ratio was only 57 in 2010, with 13 percent of its population under age 15 and 23 percent ages 65 and older. Population Pyramid A population pyramid graphically displays a population’s age and sex composition. Horizontal bars present the numbers or proportions of males and females in each age group. The sum of all the age-sex groups in the population pyramid equals 100 percent of the population. Pyramids may show single years of age, as does the one for Japan (Figure 1, page 6), or show data in age groups, as do those in Figure 2 (page 7). The bottom bars in Japan’s pyramid show the percentage of the population that was under age 1 in 2006. Each year a new cohort is born and appears at the bottom of the pyramid, while the cohorts above it move up. As the cohorts age, they inevitably lose members because of death and may gain or lose members because of migration. During the older ages, the attrition process accelerates, causing the narrowing peak of all population pyramids. Such pyramids can tell a great deal about a population at a glance. Notice, for example, that females form the substantial majority in the oldest age groups. In most countries, females outlive males. Three General Profiles Populations of countries can differ markedly as a result of past and current patterns of fertility, mortality, and migration. However, they all tend to fall into three general profiles of age-sex composition. Rapid growth is indicated by a pyramid with a large percentage of people in the younger ages. Slow growth is reflected in a pyramid with a smaller proportion of the population in the younger ages. Zero growth or decline is shown by decreasing numbers in the younger age groups. As shown in Figure 2 (page 7), the age structure of Senegal’s population is characteristic of countries experiencing rapid growth; each younger cohort is larger than the previous cohort, producing a pyramid shape. This expansive age structure is the result of high birth rates. Italy’s population, with decreasing numbers in each younger age cohort, is typical of low-fertility populations experiencing zero growth and facing population decline. The large deficit of young people—potential parents in the future—results in population decrease being virtually “preprogrammed.” The shape of the United States’ age structure indicates a population that is growing, but at a much slower rate than Senegal’s. The pyramid of Japan in 2006 is a striking example of a population whose age-sex composition has been altered by past events. The low proportion of males above age 80 represents the loss of young men during World War II. The relatively small size of the population ages 67 and 68 (both males and females) is a demographic response to the Sino-Japanese Incident in 1938 and 1939. The population ages 60 and 61 reflects the reduction in the birth rate around the end of World War II. The large group ages 55 to 59 was born during the first “baby boom” period (1947-1951). The very small percentage of 40-year-olds corresponds to the birth year of 1966—“the year of Hinoeuma” or the “year of the Firehorse.” Superstition maintains that being born during the year of Hinoeuma, which comes every 60 years, is bad luck for girls. POPULATION HANDBOOK www.prb.org 5  FIGURE 1 Population Pyramid of Japan, 2006 Age 100+ 95 90 Males Females 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Population in Thousands Source: Japan Statistics Bureau. The large percentages in ages 32 to 35 show Japan’s second “baby-boom” period (1971-1974). Population pyramids that are constructed by single years of age can illuminate reasons for a population’s age structure that larger age categories might mask. Comparing Populations The likelihood of getting married or dying varies at different ages. Populations that have comparatively large numbers of elderly are likely to have more deaths and fewer births each year than will a population of equal size that is largely composed of young families (other factors being equal). As a result, Finland, with a large proportion of older people compared with Albania, will have more deaths per 1,000 people than Albania. When comparing populations (for example, which country has higher fertility), care should be taken that the age structure of the populations does not seriously affect the comparison. Birth and death rates are affected by the proportions of people in the different ages and can give misleading comparisons (although the death rate is much more likely to do so than the birth rate). To make consistent comparisons, one can use age-specific rates. Comparing the annual death rate for people ages 60 to 64 in Mexico and the United States shows the probability of someone in that age group in both countries dying in a given year, and the comparison is unaffected by the number of people ages 60 to 64. 6 www.prb.org POPULATION HANDBOOK  FIGURE 2 Population Pyramids: Senegal, United States, and Italy Age Rapid Growth—Senegal (2010) 80+ 75-79 70-74 Males Females 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent Age Slow Growth—United States (2009) 80+ 75-79 70-74 Males Females 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent Age Zero Growth or Decline—Italy (2010) 80+ 75-79 70-74 Males Females 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent Sources: United Nations Population Division; U.S. Census Bureau; and ISTAT. POPULATION HANDBOOK www.prb.org 7  Another way to compare populations is to standardize their overall rates by applying one country’s age- specific death rate to the age structure of a second country. The result shows how many deaths one country would have in a year if it had the second country’s age structure. The U.S. crude death rate was 8.1 deaths per 1,000 people in 2008. Mexico’s crude death rate that year was reported at 5.0. However, if Mexico’s age structure had been the same as that of the United States in that year, Mexico’s standardized (age-adjusted) death rate would have been 11.1, higher than in the United States. In this example, we use the 2008 U.S. age structure as the standard; thus, the standardized U.S. death rate would remain 8.1. We could just as well use Mexico’s age structure as the standard, or even use a third country’s age structure. Age Structure and Population Growth Along with the birth rate, age structure is the demographic “engine” that drives or retards population growth. In many developing countries, large proportions of young people virtually guarantee that population will continue to grow during periods of declining fertility and for quite some time after fertility drops to “replacement level” (2.1 children per woman). The effect of a high birth rate upon age structure can be seen in Nigeria, where women have an average of six children each. In 2010, there were about 8.2 million people ages 35 to 39 in Nigeria; but 25.8 million under age 5, and 22.0 million ages 5 to 9. 8 www.prb.org POPULATION HANDBOOK  FERTILITY Fertility refers to the number of live births women have. It differs from fecundity, which refers to the physiological capability of women to reproduce. Fertility is directly determined by a number of factors which, in turn, are affected by a great many other factors: social, cultural, environmental, economic, and health. Birth Rate The birth rate (also called the crude birth rate) indicates the number of live births per 1,000 population in a given year. Most annual rates, such as the birth rate, relate demographic events to the population at mid- year (July 1), which is considered to be the average population at risk of the event occurring during the year. Number of births x K = 161,042 x 1,000 = 21.5 Total mid-year population 7,485,600 There were 22 births per 1,000 population in Israel in 2009. Around the world, birth rates vary widely. Niger’s 52 per 1,000 in 2010 is a very high birth rate, while Taiwan’s 8 per 1,000 in 2009 is very low. Births are only one component of population change, and the birth rate should not be confused with the growth rate, which includes all components of change. General Fertility Rate The general fertility rate (also called the fertility rate) is the number of live births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 49 in a given year. The general fertility rate is a somewhat more refined measure than the birth rate because it relates births to the age-sex group at risk of giving birth (usually defined as women ages 15 to 49). This limitation helps eradicate distortions that might arise because of different age and sex distributions among populations. Thus, the general fertility rate is a better basis to compare fertility levels among populations than are changes in the crude birth rate. Number of births x K = 2,027,000 x 1,000 = 91.0 Number of women ages 15-49 22,285,000 There were 91 births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 49 in Egypt in 2010. Zambia’s general fertility rate from 2004 to 2007 was 214 live births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 49— one of the highest in the world. Taiwan’s rate of 36 per 1,000 women in 2009 was one of the lowest in the world. POPULATION HANDBOOK www.prb.org 9  Age-Specific Fertility Rate Fertility rates can also be calculated for specific age groups to see differences in fertility behavior or to compare over time. Number of births to women ages 20-24 x K = 1,052,184 x 1,000 = 103.0 Number of women ages 20-24 10,215,000 In the United States in 2008, there were 103 live births for every 1,000 women ages 20 to 24. In Tanzania from 2007 to 2010, there were 260 live births per 1,000 women ages 20 to 24. From 2006 to 2009, the rate was 163 for Guyana; in 2008, the rate was 38 for Japan. Compare the fertility rates for women in the United States in the different age groups and time periods in the table below. LIVE BIRTHS PER 1,000 WOMEN AGES 20-34 BY AGE GROUP, 1970 TO 2008 AGES AGES AGES YEAR 20-24 25-29 30-34 1970 167.8 145.1 73.3 1976 110.3 106.2 53.6 1985 108.3 111.0 69.1 1995 107.5 108.8 81.1 2008 103.0 115.1 99.3 In the United States in 1976, birth rates were at an all-time low. The total fertility rate reached its lowest point in history at 1.738 children per woman. By 2008, the total fertility rate stood at 2.085, one of the highest fertility levels among developed countries (see page 11). Children Ever Born The number of “children ever born” at various ages of the mother provides one measure of a population’s fertility. This measure is useful only if the age group of women considered is specified. When this measure is calculated for women ages 45 to 49, it is called the completed fertility rate; it shows how many children a certain age cohort of women who have completed childbearing actually produced during their childbearing years. In 2006, the number of children ever born to women ages 45 to 49 averaged 7.8 in Niger and, in 2007, 1.8 in Ukraine. Often, though, we wish to summarize what fertility is now, without waiting for the end of the childbearing years. For this purpose the total fertility rate is used. Total Fertility Rate The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children that would be born to a woman by the time she ended childbearing if she were to pass through all her childbearing years conforming to the age- specific fertility rates of a given year. The TFR is one of the most useful indicators of fertility because it gives the best picture of how many children women are currently having. The TFR sums up, in a single number, the fertility of all women at a given point in time. In effect, it says: This is the total number of children a woman would have if the fertility rates for a given year applied to her throughout her reproductive life. (See table on next page for how the TFR is calculated.) The TFR is a synthetic measure; no individual woman is very likely to pass through three decades conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of any single year. In reality, age-specific rates change and 10 www.prb.org POPULATION HANDBOOK  fluctuate from year to year, even if only gradually. For example, women who were ages 15 to 19 in 2003 may delay childbearing longer than women ages 15 to 19 did in 1990. This delay would lower the TFR slightly in 2003, but then raise it several years later when the women began their childbearing. Thus, year-to- year fluctuations in the TFR may reflect changes in the timing of births rather than changes in the average number of children women bear. Calculating the Total Fertility Rate THE UNITED STATES’ TFR, 2008 (1) (2) (3) AGE OF WOMEN NUMBER OF WOMEN NUMBER OF BIRTHS AGE-SPECIFIC RATE (2)÷(1) 15-19 10,351,380 434,758 0.042 20-24 10,215,379 1,052,184 0.103 25-29 10,398,034 1,195,774 0.115 30-34 9,663,798 956,716 0.099 35-39 10,401,596 488,875 0.047 40-44 10,597,300 105,973 0.01 45-49 7,109,000 7,109 0.001 Sum = 0.417 TFR = Sum of age-specific rates * 5 = 2.09 The rates in column (3) simulate the likelihood of a woman giving birth during each year of her childbearing years, approximating the “risk” of having a birth. Multiplying each of these rates by five provides the number of children she would have for each five-year period. Each woman is subject to the annual “risk” of a birth five times in each age group; for example, 0.103 when she is 20, 0.103 when she is 21, and so on. Summing up the rates for all age categories results in the number of children she would have by age 49—the total fertility rate. The total fertility rate in 2008 in the United States was 2.09 births per woman (or 2,090 births per 1,000 women). So, if age-specific rates for 2008 stayed the same throughout their lives, U.S. women of childbearing age would have an average of 2.1 children each. In some developing countries, the TFR is more than five children per woman. In most developed countries, it is below two. Total Fertility Rate, Finland, 1776-2009; and United States, 1917-2008 Total fertility rate 6 Finland 5 4 United States 3 2 1 76 83 90 97 04 11 18 25 32 39 46 53 60 67 74 81 88 95 02 09 16 23 30 37 44 51 58 65 72 79 86 93 00 07 08 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Year Sources: Statistics Finland and the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics. POPULATION HANDBOOK www.prb.org 11  Gross Reproduction Rate The gross reproduction rate (GRR) is the average number of daughters that would be born to a woman (or group of women) during her lifetime if she passed through her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year. This rate is like the TFR except that it counts only daughters and literally measures “reproduction”—a woman reproducing herself by having a daughter. Net Reproduction Rate The net reproduction rate (NRR) is the average number of daughters that would be born to a woman (or group of women) if she passed from birth to the rest of her life conforming to the age-specific fertility and mortality rates of a given year. This rate is like the GRR, but it is always lower because it takes into account the fact that some women will die before completing their childbearing years. EXAMPLES OF GRR AND NRR COUNTRY, YEAR GRR NRR Angola, 2005-2010 2.91 2.14 Netherlands, 2009 0.87 0.86 In 2005 to 2010, Angola had a GRR of 2.91, while that of the Netherlands was 0.87. That means that, if 2005 to 2010 fertility levels were to continue, a woman in Angola would have 2.9 daughters, on average, during her lifetime. In the Netherlands, by contrast, a woman would have fewer than one daughter, on average. In Angola, nearly one daughter would die, on average, before completing her childbearing years. In the Netherlands virtually all daughters would survive. Child-Woman Ratio The child-woman ratio is the number of children under age 5 per 1,000 women of childbearing age in a given year. This measure can be calculated from national censuses or survey data, providing some information on fertility where registered birth statistics are not available. Number of children under age 5 x K = 3,850,422 x 1,000 = 267 Number of women ages 15-49 14,406,534 There were 267 children under age 5 per 1,000 women of childbearing age in France as of March 2010. In 2010, the child-woman ratio for South Korea was 170; in Uganda it was 892. Replacement-Level Fertility Replacement-level fertility is the level of fertility at which women in the same cohort have exactly enough daughters (on average) to “replace” themselves in the population. A NRR of 1.00 is equal to replacement level. Once replacement-level fertility has been reached and remains there, births will gradually reach equilibrium with deaths, and in the absence of immigration and emigration, a population ultimately will stop growing and become stationary in both size and age structure. The time this process takes varies greatly depending upon the current age structure of the population. Today, virtually all developed countries are at or below replacement-level fertility. In 2009, Sweden, with an NRR of 0.93, was below replacement level; still the Swedish population is growing. The TFR can also be used to indicate replacement-level fertility by showing the average number of children sufficient to replace both parents in the population. In developed countries today, a TFR of about 2.1 is considered to be replacement level. Replacement-level TFRs higher than 2.0 (one child for each parent) 12 www.prb.org POPULATION HANDBOOK  are needed because there are slightly more males than females born and not all females survive to their childbearing years. In developing countries with much higher mortality rates, TFRs of more than 2.1 result in replacement-level fertility. Population Momentum Population momentum refers to the tendency of a population to continue to grow after replacement-level fertility has been achieved. A population that has achieved replacement or below-replacement fertility may still continue to grow for some decades because past high fertility leads to a high concentration of people in the youngest ages. Total births continue to exceed total deaths as these youths become parents. Eventually, this large group becomes elderly and deaths increase to equal the number of births or outnumber them. Thus it may take two or three generations (50 to 70 years) before each new birth is offset by a death in the population. Although replacement-level fertility was reached in Sweden by the late 1960s, there are still about 22,000 more births than deaths each year. Birth Rate for Unmarried Women The birth rate of unmarried women is the number of live births by unmarried women per 1,000 unmarried women ages 15 to 49 years in a given year. This rate indicates the number of infants born to unmarried women and should not be confused with the percentage of births to unmarried women described below. Number of births to unmarried women x K = 1,726,566 x 1,000 = 52.5 Number of unmarried women ages 15-49 32,866,971 There were 53 births per 1,000 unmarried women ages 15 to 44 in the United States in 2008. Percentage of Births Outside Marriage The percentage of births outside marriage is the number of live births to unmarried women (never married, widowed, or divorced) per 100 total live births in a given year. This measure relates births to unmarried women to total births overall. Number of births to unmarried women x K = 1,726,566 x 100 = 40.6 Total live births 4,247,694 In 2008, 41 percent of births in the United States were outside marriage. In 2009, the percentage of births outside marriage was 55.1 in Norway and 6.6 in Greece. POPULATION HANDBOOK www.prb.org 13  FACTORS AFFECTING FERTILITY Fertility is affected by cultural, social, economic, and health factors. Most of these factors operate through four other factors: Proportion of women in sexual unions. Percentage of women using contraception. Proportion of women who are not currently fecund (primarily because of breastfeeding). Level of induced abortion. Knowledge about these four factors provides clues to potential changes in fertility and aids our understanding of past change. The proportion of women who are in union is affected by other demographic factors including the age at first marriage or union; the pervasiveness of marriage and other unions; rates of divorce, separation, and remarriage; and male mortality levels. Percentage of Women in Married or in Union The percentage of women in sexual unions is sometimes approximated by the percentage of women of reproductive age who are legally married. Number of married women ages 15-49 x 100 = 216,476,000 x 100 = 74.8 Number of women ages 15-49 289,406,000 In India, 75 percent of women ages 15 to 49 were currently married in 2006. The percentage married by age group can also be very useful for analysis. In India in 2006, 27 percent of women ages 15 to 19 were married, while 93 percent of women ages 30 to 34 were married. In countries where consensual unions are also prevalent, they may be included with formal marriage to approximate the percentage of women in union. Percentage of Women Breastfeeding The percentage of women who are breastfeeding is helpful in determining the number of women who are at risk of pregnancy, because exclusive breastfeeding of an infant can lengthen the period of time before menstruation resumes. Number of women with infants under age 1 who are breastfeeding x 100 = 6,120,000 x 100 = 95.6 Number of women with infants under age 1 6,400,000 Virtually all of Nigerian women surveyed in 2008 who had an infant under age 1 were breastfeeding. 14 www.prb.org POPULATION HANDBOOK  Contraceptive Prevalence Rate The contraceptive prevalence rate is the number of women of reproductive age who are using contraception per 100 women of reproductive age. This measure provides an indication of the number of women who have a lower risk of conception at a given time. This measure may be calculated for all women or subpopulations such as married women, unmarried women, or women who are sexually active. It is usually published for all contraceptive methods including modern methods (the pill, the condom), and “traditional” methods (withdrawal, natural methods). Number of married women ages 15-49 using contraception x 100 = 885,000 x 100 = 60.6 Number of married women ages 15-49 1,460,000 In Bolivia in 2008, the contraceptive prevalence rate for all methods among currently married women ages 15 to 49 was 61 percent, whereas the modern method contraceptive prevalence rate for married women was 35 percent. Women’s use of contraception ranges from less than 20 percent in many African countries to 75 percent or more in many European countries, Australia, Brazil, and a few countries in East and Southeast Asia. Abortion Rate Number of abortions x K = 44,089 x 1,000 = 18.4 Number of women ages 15-49 2,398,909 In 2008, there were 18 abortions in Hungary per 1,000 women of childbearing ages 15 to 49. In 2009, the abortion rate in Estonia was 29. In Japan in 2005, it was 10. The abortion rate is the number of induced abortions per 1,000 women of reproductive age in a given year. This rate should not be confused with the abortion ratio, which is described below. Abortion Ratio The abortion ratio is the number of abortions per 1,000 live births in a given year. This ratio should not be confused with the abortion rate, described above. Number of abortions x K = 43,181 x 1,000 = 447.7 Number of live births 96,442 In 2008, there were 448 abortions in Hungary per 1,000 live births. In 2009, the abortion ratio in Russia was 734. In Italy in 2007, it was 222. POPULATION HANDBOOK www.prb.org 15  MORTALITY Mortality refers to deaths that occur within a population. The probability of dying during a given time period is linked to many factors, such as age, sex, race, occupation, and economic status. The incidence of death can reveal much about a population’s standard of living and health care. Death Rate The death rate (also called the crude death rate) is the number of deaths per 1,000 population in that population in a given year. Number of deaths x K = 8,504,709 x 1,000 = 7.4 Total population 1,149,285,000 In the 2008, the death rate in India was 7 per 1,000. In 2009, Zambia’s death rate was estimated at 16 per 1,000, while Singapore’s was 4. The crude death rate can be particularly affected by age structure. It is therefore prudent, when comparing death rates between countries, to adjust for differences in age composition before making inferences about a country’s health, economic, or environmental conditions. For example, in 2009, Sweden’s crude death rate was twice as high as Panama’s—10 per 1,000 compared with 5 per 1,000—despite the fact that life expectancy in Sweden was 81 years, compared with 76 for Panama. The higher Swedish rate is attributable to the differences in age composition between the two countries. In “old” Sweden, 18 percent of its population is ages 65 and older, so deaths are more likely to occur, while “young” Panama’s proportion of elderly people is only 6 percent of the total population. Thus, despite Sweden’s better health conditions, it has a higher proportion of deaths in the total population each year than Panama. Age-Specific Death Rate Death rates can be calculated for specific age groups in order to compare mortality at different ages or at the same age over time. Comparisons also can be made between countries or areas. Because mortality varies greatly by sex and race, age-specific death rates are often given separately for males and females and for different racial groups in a population. Deaths of population ages 15-24 x K = 32,208 x 1,000 = 0.8 Population ages 15-24 42,546,900 In the United States in 2008, the age-specific death rate for ages 15 to 24 was 0.8 per 1,000. By comparison, Puerto Rico’s 2008 age-specific death rate for ages 75 to 84 was 50.2 per 1,000. 16 www.prb.org POPULATION HANDBOOK  Age-Specific Death Rates, Gambia and Lesotho, 2008 150 120 90 Gambia 60 Lesotho 30 0