Population Growth - Presentation PDF

POPULATION GROWTH WORLD POPULATION  According to Population Prospect report 2022, the world population has reached 7.91 billion.  Of these, 59.8 percent lives in Asian countries.  It’s growing at a rate of 0.90 percent per year.  Shall we become 15 billion in another 50 year time? SOME LANDMA...

POPULATION GROWTH WORLD POPULATION  According to Population Prospect report 2022, the world population has reached 7.91 billion.  Of these, 59.8 percent lives in Asian countries.  It’s growing at a rate of 0.90 percent per year.  Shall we become 15 billion in another 50 year time? SOME LANDMARKS  Let assume that the first human couple walked on the earth five lakh years ago.  It took five lakh years to reach the first billion mark around 1820.  The second billion was reached in 1930, and the third in 1960.  Between 1820 and 2018 (two hundred years), the world population grew more than seven times. GROWTH RATE  Till 1800 AD, the world population was almost stable – fluctuating  Why?  The growth rate was very small – 0.4 – 0.6 percent  In the next 120 years, the growth rate increased from 0.4 to 0.8 percent.  Then to 2.1 percent in 1970s  Followed by a continuous decline to 1.2 percent  Will reach 0.1 percent in 2100. TWO PERIODS OF GROWTH  Early twentieth century – demographic transition in more developed countries which started in the middle of eighteenth century and continued till the recent times  In 1950s and 60s – transition in less developed countries  Sudden/ unprecedented  Control of infectious diseases.  Coal and Hoover, argued in their book that India would gain economically from lowering its fertility levels. EFFECT OF DEVELOPMENT ON POPULATION  Demographic transition theory.  Industrialization and development affect mortality and this in turn affects fertility.  In less developed countries public health programmes lead to control of infectious diseases.  People realize the burden of rising population pressure on limited resources.  Child survival and child replacement hypotheses. HOW POPULATION AFFECTS DEVELOPMENT  Effect of size – optimum population theory.  Effect of growth rate – demographic investment and economic investment.  Effect of age composition on consumption and labour force.  Effect of migration – not much explored POPULATION GROWTH IN INDIA  Population Growth up to 1600 AD  Substantial Population before the B.C. – due to advanced technology and a fertile environment  Stationary Population from 300 BC to 1600 AD – High and fluctuating death rates and high birth rates  Population Growth from 1600 to 1870  Limited documentary evidence exists for estimating the population  Remain 125 million for nearly 150 years before gradually increasing.  Population Growth from 1871 to 1901  More reliable data Year Percentage change from  Grew steadily. previous decade 1881 0.9 1891 9.4 1901 1.0 1910 5.7 POPULATION GROWTH IN INDIA…  Population Growth in the Twentieth Century Population Growth in the +17.90 Twentieth Century Fertility +21.34 Mortality Migration +23.86 +24.66 Population +24.80 +21.64 +13.31 +14.22 +11.0 +5.75 -0.31 1027015247 1210854977 238396327 252093390 251321213 278977238 318660580 361088090 439234771 548159652 683329097 846387888 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Census Year CURRENT POPULATION SITUATION IN INDIA  Second Most Populous Country (as per the 2011 census).  Density – 382  Classified into four distinct phases 1901 – Stagnant population 1921 1921 – Steady growth 1951 1951 – Rapid high growth 1981 1981 – High growth with sure signs of slowing 2001 down of the growth rate  Actual growth rate is decreasing compare to previous decades.  THE CURRENT POPULATION SITUATION IN THE STATES AND UTS Census Years Growth Census Years Growth Pop. Pop. States/UTs Density States/UTs 2001 2011 Absolute % Density 2001 2011 Absolute % Uttar Pradesh 166,197,921 199,812,341 33,614,420 20.23 829 10,143,700 12,541,302 2,397,602 23.64 56 Jammu & Kashmir Maharashtra 96,878,627 112,374,333 15,495,706 15.99 365 8,489,349 10,086,292 1,596,943 18.81 189 Uttarakhand Bihar 82,998,509 104,099,452 21,100,943 25.42 1106 6,077,900 6,864,602 786,702 12.94 123 Himachal Pradesh West Bengal 80,176,197 91,276,115 11,099,918 13.84 1028 3,199,203 3,673,917 474,714 14.84 350 Tripura Andhra Pradesh 76,210,007 84,580,777 8,370,770 10.98 308 2,318,822 2,966,889 648,067 27.95 132 Meghalaya Madhya Pradesh 60,348,023 72,626,809 12,278,786 20.35 236 2,293,896 2,855,794 561,898 24.50 128 Manipur Tamil Nadu 62,405,679 72,147,030 9,741,351 15.61 555 1,990,036 1,978,502 -11,534 -0.58 119 Nagaland Rajasthan 56,507,188 68,548,437 12,041,249 21.31 200 1,347,668 1,458,545 110,877 8.23 394 Goa Karnataka 52,850,562 61,095,297 8,244,735 15.60 319 1,097,968 1,383,727 285,759 26.03 17 50,671,017 60,439,692 9,768,675 19.28 308 Arunachal Pradesh Gujarat 974,345 1,247,953 273,608 28.08 2547 36,804,660 41,974,218 5,169,558 14.05 270 Puducherry Odisha 888,573 1,097,206 208,633 23.48 52 31,841,374 33,406,061 1,564,687 4.91 860 Mizoram Kerala 900,635 1,055,450 154,815 17.19 9258 26,945,829 32,988,134 6,042,305 22.42 414 Chandigarh Jharkhand 540,851 610,577 69,726 12.89 86 Assam 26,655,528 31,205,576 4,550,048 17.07 398 Sikkim 24,358,999 27,743,338 3,384,339 13.89 551 356,152 380,581 24,429 6.86 46 Punjab Andaman & Nicobar Islands 20,833,803 25,545,198 4,711,395 22.61 189 220,490 343,709 123,219 55.88 700 Chhattisgarh Dadra & Nagar Haveli 21,144,564 25,351,462 4,206,898 19.90 573 158,204 243,247 85,043 53.76 2191 Haryana Daman & Diu 13,850,507 16,787,941 2,937,434 21.21 11320 60,650 64,473 3,823 6.30 2149 NCT OF Delhi Lakshadweep EFFECT OF GROWTH RATE  Inverted U – shape  Demographic curve investment refers to  The Growth rate of per the rate of capita income investment = YP necessary to G= G(Y) – G(P) maintain the present scale of living due to G(Y) = APS/ICOR growth of population G= APS/ICOR – G(P) A HIGH RATE OF GROWTH  Reduces economic investment  Economic investment = Total investment – demographic investment  Demographic investment depends on growth rate as well as changes in the age composition of population  Equivalent consumers  Productivity also depends on the age composition.  IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION GROWTH  Rise in the density of population.  Population pressure on limited resources.  Conflicts over resources.  Limited capital  Poverty, unemployment, illiteracy  Environmental destruction  Pollution of water, air and noise  Urban slums  COMPLEX, CONTEXTUAL AND SYMMETRICAL RELATIONSHIP  Impact of population depends on capital, organization and technology  There is a two – way relationship  There are both bad and good consequences of population growth  There are no simple methodologies of measurements, simulation and drawing inferences. EMPIRICAL CONNECTION  All the developed countries have low fertility, high life expectancy, small or negative growth rate of population  Among the rest there is negative correlation between development and fertility.  Japan has a birth rate of 8, death rate of 11, negative natural increase and life expectancy of 81 for males and 87 for females.  The above figures for least developed Somalia are 43, 11, 3.2%, 55 and 58. SOME GOOD CONSEQUENCES TOO  Labour force  Political power  Expansion of market  In The Ultimate Resource and other books and papers Julian L Simon suggested that population growth is not undesirable.  Innovation, ingenuity, drive, creativity and substitution  Technology and nuclear power  Life expectancy improved and all prices fell. POPULATION GROWTH  Contribute to desire to be more productive  Intellectual fecundity  Innovations.  Education, urbanization, and social change  Increased trade and consequent growth in cities. CONTEXTUAL RELATIONSHIP  Can we not say that the relationship between population and development is contextual – not universally negative or universally positive  State has to look into all aspects of capital, technology, organization and environment before deciding whether they should go for pro-natal policy and anti-natal policy.  Large countries may also look for regional policies (as it was called the “regionally differentiated population policy” is the erstwhile USSR.