Poli Sci 6 Notes PDF

09/30/24 ~ Lecture #1 Introduction to Comparative Politics ​ What is comparative politics? ○​ Domestic politics (within the national boundaries) of other nations ○​ Field of political science that compares political phenomena in two or more settings to make...

09/30/24 ~ Lecture #1 Introduction to Comparative Politics ​ What is comparative politics? ○​ Domestic politics (within the national boundaries) of other nations ○​ Field of political science that compares political phenomena in two or more settings to make general theoretical statements ​ Central questions ○​ Who rules? Who gets political power and why? ​ Democracy vs authoritarian ​ Formal vs informal ​ Plural vs elite ○​ Why do people behave politically the way they do? ​ Voting ​ Protest ​ ethnic/religious violence ○​ Why do political phenomena occur in specific places? ​ Same factors ​ Violence in some but not all ​ Basic approaches ○​ Behavioral approaches ​ Rational choice ​ Assumes a set of preferences ​ Assumes individual actor is rational ​ The actor will calculate the cost of benefits of different courses of action ​ Choose the course of action to maximize preferences ​ Do not need to have everyone behave this way - just on average ​ Ex: voting behavior influenced by ​ Party track record ​ Election manifesto ​ Party leaders ​ Key party leaders ○​ Voters make a rational decision not based on class or age gender or party allegiance but on who will benefit them ​ Psychological model ​ Interrogates the source of preferences ​ Relaxes assumptions about rationality ​ May include emotional drivers of action ​ May consist of identity and group membership as drivers of action ○​ Social group identity, ethnicity, religion, or gender ○​ Partisan identity (loyal to party) ○​ Beliefs, values, and cultures  ​ People have normative preferences - what they think is right, normal, or good ​ Beliefs can be shaped by social cues and norms as well as religion ​ Structures and institutions ​ Social structures and political institutions can also act as independent variables influencing political behavior ○​ Marxism: class and economic position influence behavior ○​ Institutionalism: incentives created by rules (institutions) influence why people choose one course of action or another ○​ Why do societies have different rules? ​ Pluraliams ​ Politics is a competition among groups, rules result from compromise ​ Elitism ​ Politics is governed by an elite, the elite designs rules to favor their continued power ​ Historical institutionalism ​ Institutions result from previous institutional choices ○​ Institutions result from previous institutional choices ○​ “Critical junctures” are times of major, social, economic, and political stress during which institutions may be created or reformed ○​ Path dependence then determines what choices are available next 10/02/2024 ~ Lecture #2 The Modern State ​ What is the “state”? ○​ A set of ongoing institutions that administers laws and implements public policies within a specific territory ​ Verses a government: the group of people who control the state at a given point ​ A regime: a system of rules that govern political activity, including who gets to control the state ​ A nation: a large aggregate of people united by common descent, history, culture, or language ○​ Whether a state is strong or weak influences ​ Whether you feel safe walking on the street ​ Have rule of law ​ Have a good education system ​ Defining the state:  ○​ The political association that successfully claims a monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force within a given territory (Weber) ​ Characteristics of the state ○​ Territory: the authority to enforce rules is attached to a place rather than to a person ○​ Sovereignty: monopoly over enforcement ​ External sovereignty: other countries accept the entity's sole right to speak for the people living in the territory it controls ​ Internal sovereignty: no group can successfully challenge the entity's ability to enforce its laws and policies within the territory claimed by the state ​ Ultimately, the use of force backs up the state's ability to enforce all laws and policies ○​ Legitimacy: the recognized right to rule ​ The voluntary compliance of citizens ​ Acceptance of the right of the government to make rules that we should all obey (rather than questioning every rule) ○​ Bureaucracy: rational, universally applicable systems based on impersonal and transparent rules ​ Strong Vs Weak States ○​ Strong states can carry out basic tasks expected of them ​ Provide security, public policy, basic goods, and services ○​ Weak states are less able to fulfill tasks and may face rivals ​ organized crime, guerrilla movements, and other states) ○​ Failed states have lost most of their ability to monopolize forces and provide services ​ The Fragile State Index ○​ A mathematical way of using expert evaluation to judge whether a state is relatively strong or relatively weak ○​ Twelve categories of state functioning ​ Demographic pressures ​ refugees/internally displaced persons ​ ethnic/religious violence ​ Human flight/ high migration rates ​ Uneven economic development ​ Economic decline ​ Delegitimization of the state ​ Poor public service ​ Weak protection of human rights ​ Evidence of ineffective security apparatus ​ Factionalized elites ​ External intervention (peacekeepers, invasion) ​ World Bank government indicators ○​ Dimensions of “governance”  ​ Political stability and the absence of violence ​ Perceptions of the likelihood that the government will be destabilized or overthrown by unconstitutional means, including domestic violence or terrorism ​ Government effectiveness ​ Regulatory quality ​ Perceptions of the quality of the government ​ Rule of law ​ Perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence ​ Control of corruption ​ The extent to which public power is exercised for private gain ​ Voice and accountability ​ A country's citizens can participate in selecting their government, as well as freedom of expression, freedom of association, and a free media ​ Coding state strength ○​ Code as strong if ranking is 135-179 (least fragile states) ○​ Code as moderately strong if ranking is 90-134 ○​ Code as moderately weak if ranking is 45-89 ○​ Code as weak if ranking is 1-44 ​ Theories Explaining State Development ○​ 1) economic development leads to state development ​ Only rich countries can afford to pay for effective states that deliver public goods ​ But which comes first? Do effective states create the conditions for economic development or vice versa ​ The resource curse ​ Refers to things like oil states where you get a windfall of money flowing in ​ High demand for products, but it's unconnected to the rest of the economy ​ Cause states to become more corrupt, people steal, etc ​ Causes hurt to not only the economy but also to the state ​ Lower state legitimacy, etc ​ Not just the money coming into the state, but instead how the state gets its money ○​ Douglas North “Economic growth is determined largely by the kind of quality and institutions that support markets” ​ Property rights, transaction costs ( contracts, credit, etc) ○​ 2) War creates incentives for state development and/or eliminates states that fail to develop sufficiently ​ Survival of the fittest ​ Large coordinated groups beat small uncoordinated groups in battle ​ Favor centralized political organizations: states  ​ States that can extract more resources from the population beat poorer states ​ States that develop the ability to tax the population effectively win: origins of bureaucracy, incentive to monitor citizens closely, but also orgining of citizen engagement with states ​ States that can elicit the voluntary participation of citizens (as soldiers) beat states that cannot mobilize population or must coerce it ○​ 3) colonialism spread the state form ​ The type and quality of a state's former colony will strongly influence the type and quality of the state it develops after independence ​ The legal system set up by the colonizer often liners ​ When states are imposed from outside, the result tends to breed local cultural resistance to state authority, to a greater or lesser degree depending on the level of incorporation of local elites in state administration ​ Indigenous culture/society affects state strength and legitimacy ​ The demand for states ○​ states, where property and wealth are more equally distributed, create broader demands for effective states ​ Early modern europe ○​ Densely populated, frequently at war ○​ Large number of states, whittled down to a handful over 300 years of conflict ○​ Continental europe (most exposed to war) creates generally stronger and more centralized states (germany) ○​ United Kingstom slightly less centralized ○​ United States develops stronger central state attributes as a result of wars but never develops quite as strong as European states due to isolation 10/09/2024 ~ Lecture #4 ​ Social democracy ○​ Basic requirements of liberal democracy: civil and political liberties protected by the state ○​ In addition, the basic social and economic rights of the individuals are guaranteed by the state ○​ Market remains the basic model of economic growth and democracy remains the political regime ​ Contemporary democracy: Sweden ​ Have strong economics, high income, and high tax rates ​ Bernie sanders wants the US to adopt these rules (more of a democratic socialism) ○​ The role of the state expands but does not replace civil society or the private sector ​ Participatory democracy  ○​ Basic requirements of liberal democracy: civil and political liberties protected by the state ○​ Further reduces the role of the central state, expands the participatory responsibilities of the citizens ○​ To be truly democratic, governments require the direct participation of individual citizens ○​ This in turn requires maximum decentralization ​ So demanding that we do not have any modern examples, however, would work best within smaller countries/populations ​ Populist democracy ○​ Basic requirements of liberal democracy: civil and political liberties protected by the state but the emphasis on the rights and liberties of the people who are the majority ○​ Corrupt and wicked elites may attempt to use “democratic institutions” to block the will of the people ○​ It is the role and duty of the populist leader to overcome resistance by the institutions to implement the will of the people; the people's role is mostly to follow/elect the populist leader ​ You get a lot of populist leaders arguing that there is fraud in elections ​ Can be seen in Mexico ○​ Populist democracy has huge state rights/obligations and low citizen obligations ​ Totalitarianism ○​ An all-encompassing form of authoritarianism guided by ideology ​ Effort to control individuals social behavior as well as their political behavior ​ Efforts to indoctrinate individuals into the overarching ideology ○​ Examples: ​ socialism/communism ​ Regine types based on the ideas of Karl Marx ​ Fascism ○​ Karl Marx ​ Argued that all political struggled reflected underlying economic structures ​ Capitalism is based on exploitation of wage labor (proletariat) by those who control the means of production (bourgeoise) ​ The capitalist state is the “executive committee of the bourgeoisie) ​ The state was there to support the capital, make sure there is no revolution, and adopt policies that supported the elite class, not the workers ​ Most polarizing, and effectively split society into 2 classes ​ The state's main purpose is to keep labor from challenging capital, by using force ​ Communism (socialism)  ○​ Like all previous economic systems capitalism contains within it the seeds of its destruction: ○​ Impoverished workers will eventually be unable to generate new wealth ○​ The first phase of the next economic system would be socialism ​ Will require the working class to establish the “dictatorship of the proletariat” ​ Purpose of a socialist state: ​ To diminish the remnants of the capitalist system, partially any class enemies who remain ​ To establish collective ownership of the means of production ​ During this phase, the role of the state is to ensure that no one acts ○​ Eventually, when everyone has become a member of the proletariat, the state will no longer be necessary to ensure that no one acts agonist the interest of the proletariat (class less society) ○​ The state will then “wither away” ○​ Real existing socialism: the USSR ​ Joseph stalin leader (1929-1953) ​ Promoted rapid industrialization ​ State ownership 0f land and industries ​ Five year plans set production goals, wages, and prices ​ Opposition to the state had to be oppressed ​ Participation was high and required by the state, but there was no options outside of the party ○​ Further tales of the state in socialism ​ The protect interest of the proletariat by suppressing class enemies ​ Limited electoral competition: only one party (the communist party) ​ Limited press and speech; punish dissent ​ Monitor citizen thoughts and behaviors (KGB) ​ To mold and form the new “socialist man” by proper education ​ Mass literacy campaigns ​ Socialist realism in literature, art, theater ​ Edited version ○​ Communist goals = totalitarianism but not reality ​ Reality fell short of aspirations, even under the most extreme conditions (stalin) ​ After stalin's death,m successive leaders experiences with looser forms of economic and political control ​ Mikhail gorrbachev (leader of USSR from 1985-1991) ​ communism/socialism today ○​ Soviet state proved unsuccessful in created a new socialist man, or an economy that grew steadily in the long term ○​ The soviets states terrible human right records increased popular rejection of the communist model  ○​ After the collapse of the soviet union and its satellite states in eastern europe, frw self proclaimed remained ​ Fascism vs communism ○​ Communis: state rules on behalf of the proletariat class to suppress other classes ○​ Fascism: not the same thing as racism (but they often do go together) ​ Hutler was both a fascist and racist ​ Mussolini was a fascist, but under his rule in italy refused to cooperate with Germany's request to deport jews ○​ Fascism also argues that: ​ The needs of the nation comes before the needs of individual or groups ​ The state determines what interest of the nation requires ​ The leader speaks for the nation ​ Because each social group fulfills a particular function within society, there is no need for multiple competing organizations to represent it ​ Fascism does not seek to own or control the means of production ​ Rather the state worked closely with business, as it did with other groups in society that support the goals of the leader ​ Was discredited due to its association with hitler ​ Authoritarianism: responsibility without rights ○​ Unlike totalitarian, authoritarianism does not aspire to direct the personal lives and activities of citizens, including their social and moral intentions ○​ It does make an effort to control their political participation but in most cases, the goal is to diminish participation, rather than to compel it ○​ Examples ​ Modernizing authoritarianism ​ Electoral authoritarianism ​ Personalism ​ Modernizing authoritarian ○​ Democracy politics is just too messy and inefficient ○​ Development requires unity, order, and the application of expertise ○​ This may be under a personal leader or military, but technocrats are key holders of authority ○​ Elections just result in violence and divide the nation ​ Voters are dumb, poor, uneducated, and don’t know what they’re doing ○​ Successful modernizing authoritarianism: ​ Brazil, 1964-1985 ​ Successful economic development, military authoritarian regime ○​ Unsuccessful modernizing authoritarianism (neopatrimonial rule) ​ Rule based on reciprocal personal ties and heviors ​ Or, treating the resources of the state like your own personal piggy bank ​ Nigeria ​ Electoral authoritarianism ○​ Rulers still skeptical of the ability of democracy to secure emotional development, political order  ○​ Nevertheless, feel compelled to comply with international democratic norms to some extent ○​ Electoral authoritarian regimes thus present an illusion of multi party democracy at the local and national level while effetively stiripping elections of meaning ○​ Number of electoral authoritarian states have increased since the end of the cold war ○​ As the soviet threat vanished external support for anti communist authoritarian government declines ○​ Western governments, forge investors, and international financial institutions increasingly favor countries with democratic institutions, they may ever sanctio openly non democratic countries Lecture #5 ~ 10/16/2025 ​ Nationalism and immigration ○​ Immigrants usually lack some key political rights ○​ Immigrants may not be considered part of the community ○​ But they pose little risk of secession or civil war ​ Half of Americans in 2015 said immigrants are making the economy and crime worse ​ Intersectionality: multiple politically salient identities ​ More than one competing group identity ​ Cross-cuts other identities/ privileges ​ Is a person who's gay and white privileged or marginalized? ​ Governing institutions in democracies ~ power and accountability ○​ What is power ​ Power is the ability to produce intended and foreseen effects ​ The ability to control others, events, or resources: to make happen what one wants to happen in spite of obstacles, resistance, or opposition ○​ Formal Vs Informal Power ​ Formal powers: based on an individual position in an organization and on the authority associated with that position regardless of who occupies it ​ Specific powers are usually enumerated in written form ​ Informal powers: may be based on an individual's personal charisma and connections, skills, or prestige, as well as unwritten customs and norms ○​ Accountability ​ An obligation or willingness to accept responsibility for one's actions ​ Having to report one's actions, justify them, and suffer punishment in the event of conduct ​ Horizontal accountability is the ability of state institutions to hold one another accountable ​ Vertical accountability is individuals' and groups' ability to hold state institutions accountable ○​ Branches of government  ​ Executive: the chief political power in a state, enforces and implements laws ​ Legislative: branch of government that makes the laws in a democracy ​ judicial: interprets the laws and applies them to different cases ○​ Veto players ​ One who can stop a change from the status quo ​ Strong and autonomous bureaucracy ​ Strong federalist system ○​ Majoritarian democracies: concentrate power ​ Greater vertical accountability ​ Less horizontal accountability ○​ Consensus democracies ​ Less vertical accountability ​ Greater horizontal accountability ​ Forms of government ○​ Configuration of the relationship between executive and legislative ○​ Parliamentarian: UK, India, Israel ○​ Presidentialism: United States, Brazil ○​ Semi-Presidentialism: France, Russia ​ Parliamentarism: ​ In parliamentary systems, the legislative chooses the executive while in presidential systems the executive and legislative branches are separately elected ​ In parliamentary systems, voters choose the party they prefer, though this has implications for who will end up as prime minister ​ Where two houses of the parliament exist, the lower house elects the prime minister ​ Westminster model: Becoming a PM ○​ One party( nearly) always wins a majority of the parliamentary seats ○​ Leader of the majority party, also an elected member of parliament, chosen as PM ○​ The new PM will then choose cabinet members from among senior leaders of his party in parliament ​ Coalition parliaments: Becoming PM ○​ The largest party attempts to form a government by negotiating with smaller parties to achieve a legislative majority ○​ This party trades policy concessions, government jobs, and cabinet seats for legislative support ○​ Principles: ideological proximity, minimum winning coalition ○​ The power of the PM controls agenda and can pass virtually any law ​ Controls a majority of the legislature by definition  ​ Parties are very disciplined in parliamentary systems: legislators vote as a bloc ​ Parties tend to control nominations ​ Rising within the party to party leadership means doing as you're told ​ Prime ministers can usually dissolve the parliament at will though there is some fixed period beyond which the parliamentary term may not extend ○​ Checks on a prime minister ​ Cabinet members may (internally) oppose prime ministers' initiatives, but typically not publicly ​ The prime minister's party may remove him or a leader of the party, which results in the removal of the PM ​ Parliament may force the resignation of the PM by a vote of no confidence, or by voting against a major policy ​ However, this also causes the entire cabinet to reign, and a new government must be formed ​ The no-confidence vote ○​ Advantages ​ Flexibility: allows parliament, by a simple majority vote, to the remote prime minister for any reason including mere incompetence ​ Question time ○​ 30 minutes a day, the prime minister appears before the House of common to respond to questions publicly, expose problems, air criticisms ​ Responsible party model ○​ Ultimately, governing party responsible to the public for its actions, making it easy for the public to identify those who are in charge of failures or successes 10/23/24 ​ Representation; electoral systems, political parties, and civil society ○​ The electoral system ​ Formal, legal mechanisms that translate votes into: ​ Control over political offices ​ Control over shares of political power ​ The major types of electoral systems are: ​ Single-member districts ​ Proportional representation (Pr) ○​ Single-member districts ​ Each geographic district elects a single representative to the legislature ​ First past the post or plurality system: SMD system in which the candidate with the most votes wins ​ Majority or runoff system: SMD system in which the winner much gain an absolute majority of the votes (50 percent plus 1): frequently resources a second, runoff election in which the top two candidates compete ​ Advantages of SMD  ○​ Gives voters a strong sense of identification with their representative ○​ Gives representatives strong incentives to establish local offices and do constituent service (this, in turn, reinforces voter identification with representatives) ○​ This tends to result in two-party systems and governments controlled by a single-party ​ Efficiency and moderation ​ Directly responds to constituents' concerns ​ Duverger's Law ○​ Single-member district, plurality rule election favors the two-party system ​ Mechanical effect: the plurality rule is strongly biased against smaller parties, denying them any representation ​ Psychological effect: because voters know this, they tend to vote strategically for the larger parties only, to avoid wasting their vote ​ Because politicians know this they stick with stronger parties instead of starting new ones ​ Therefore only the parties that seem able to get the largest number of votes (place first or second) survive ○​ Exceptions: ​ Federalism: when parties can win a plurality/majority at a regional level, the national party system may continue to have more than two parties even if these regional parties cannot win national power: ​ Ex: Canada and India ​ Majoritarian (aka not plurality) versions of SMD also tend to have more than two parties ​ Larger parties have to negotiate with smaller parties in order to win a majority ​ Majority vs Plurality: Both are SMD ○​ Plurality: US, UK ○​ First past the post ○​ The candidate with the most votes win, even if they have less than 50% of the votes ​ Disadvantages of SMD ○​ Less representation of minority views and groups (women, minorities, etc) ○​ Lower rates of participation ○​ Apathy and voter frustration with lack of choice ○​ Strongly personalized politics ​ Proportional representation ○​ Districts each have multiple seats available ○​ Seats in district are allocated on a purpley proportional basis, giving each party a share of seats that matches its share of the total vote ​ Closed list pr: each party presents a ranked list of candidates ​ Voters vote for the party rather than for individual candidates ​ Open list pr: multiple candidates run in each district  ​ Voters vote for the candidates of their choice, and the candidates with the most votes ○​ Advantages of PR ​ Gives campaigns and elections more ideological and policy content; voters choose based on closeness to the party, not the personalities of the candidate ​ More people turn out than in plurality or semi-proportional elections ​ Greater representation of minority views and minority groups ​ Ticket balancing ○​ Descriptive representation ○​ Appealing to many constu=ituencies for electoral gain ​ Quotas ○​ Decide ahead of time to reserve seats for certain groups ​ All throughout Latin America; more women in the legislature ○​ Difficult to do in SMD ○​ Dramatically increases women's representation ○​ Disadvantages of PR ​ Tends to increase the number of parties ​ Too many parties can cause fractionalization of legislatures; resulting in instability and inefficient governance ​ Representation of minority views can permit undue influence of extremist and dangerous views as well ​ French electoral system ○​ Fourth Republic (1946-1957) ○​ PR with a highly fragmented party system ○​ Collapses in large part due to government instability, party chaos, and effectiveness ○​ A similar problem in the Third Republic ○​ De Gaulle was determined to provide France with a more stable, effective leadership ​ Fifth republic electoral system: Majoritarian SMD ​ Party systems ○​ The number of parties and their institutional strength ○​ Counting parties: Laakso and Taagepera ​ The effective number of parties ​ Starts with the share of the vote of each party squared ​ This magnificence of the impact of larger parties ​ One divided by the sum of squared shares of all the parties is the effective number of parties ​ Based on similar calculations of the probability of any two random voters having voted for the same party ○​ Sartori: ​ Size doesn't always matter in an effective way to the government  ​ Governing potential: when a party has a realistic chance of winning the election and/or participating in the coalition that elects the prime minister ​ Blackmail potential: when a party existence affects the tactics of party competition and particularly when it alters the direction of competition (forcing other parties to campaign more to the left or right) ​ Types of party system ○​ Based essentially on the number of parties ​ Dominant party system: multiple parties exist but the same one wins every election and governs continuously ​ Authoritarian varieties of one-party systems include hegemonic party systems and true one-party systems ​ Two-party system: only two parties can get enough votes to win an election, though more may compete Lecture 10/28/2024 ​ Why do we care? ○​ The number of parties affects the quality of governance: more fragmented party systems make it difficult to reach legislative majorities, and therefore harder to govern ○​ The number of parties affects ideological diversity and polarization ​ In two-party systems, the two major parties tend to converge toward the center ​ Multiparty systems permit greater ideological diversity and more extremist parties to survive (Duverger's Law) ​ Downs, the median voter ○​ Voters are normally distributed around the median (that is, most voters are moderate, grouped around the center of a left-right ideological spectrum) ○​ Voters will choose the party closet to them ideologically ○​ Parties are vote-maximizing unitary actors that want to win elections more than anything else ○​ Parties will change their ideological positions to capture more votes ​ In a two-party, they are always driven to capture majorities ○​ Parties in two-party systems will converge around the center of ​ Getting primaried ○​ Strategy is to threaten those who don't fall in line with trump with a primary challenge ○​ Intent to preserve trump's influence, ensure that legislators don't stray from his direction ​ Other important aspects of party systems: ○​ It matters whether or the party system contains one or more parties that actively reject democracy: the presence of systems parties  ○​ It matters whether the party system contains parties that are very close together or very far apart ideologically: degree of polarization ○​ The institutional strength of parties matters as well ​ Typically political scientists measure this by using electoral volatility: the degree to which electoral votes for parties change from one election to the next ​ High volatility means that parties are not strongly institutionalized ​ Civil society ○​ Voluntary organized activity that is not focused on individual self-interest and not controlled by the government ​ Interest groups ​ Social movements ​ Patron client linkages ○​ Interest group pluralism: multiple and completing groups exist to represent particular interests and the government remains officially neutral among them ○​ Corporatism: large national interest associations with more hierarchical control over local affiliates; governments tend to interact with these peak associations to form political ○​ Social movements ​ May form when issues arise that do not reflect existing structure of interest groups, that bridge interest groups, or raise problems for which no current group speaks ​ Usually have a loosely defined organizational structure, form quickly, and often collapse quickly ​ Seek major socioeconomic or political change ​ Patron client relationships ○​ Exchange of material goods or services for political support, characterized by asymmetries in power, where the patron controls resources and trades them for votes ○​ Sometimes known as “machine politics” ○​ More importantly where formal institutions are the weakest ○​ Most important in authoritarian systems, though they also exist in democracies ○​ Individual rather than collective empowerment for poor ​ Contentious political action ○​ “Why men rebel” ​ Result of a particular type of grievance: relative deprivation ​ That is, “men” do not participate merely because they are poor or disadvantaged in some way ​ Rather they participate when they experience “relative deprivation (RD)” ​ Relative deprivation is the tension between your actual state and what you feel you should have ​ “It is a perceived discrepancy between value expectations and value capabilities” ○​ Types of relative deprivation  ​ Progressive deprivation ​ J curve ​ Capabilities are increasing triggering rising expectations ​ Aspirational deprivation ​ Capabilities don't change but your aspirations go up ​ Decremental deprivation ​ Expectations remain constant but the capabilities of a group fall 10/30/2024 ​ Prospect theory ○​ People react more strongly to losses than gains and are more willing to take risks in the “domain of losses” ○​ With respect to protest, then, people may be more willing to assume the risks if they are attempting to avoid a loss than if they are attempting to achieve a gain ​ Risk aversion ​ Framing ○​ Framing is signifying work or meaningful construction engaged in movement initiators and/or adherents ○​ Derives from the idea within social psychology that objects, events, and experiences do not have intrinsic meaning, but the meanings are attracted t these objects, events, and experiences through the process of social construction ○​ Framing is the “transformation of misfortunes into injustices” ​ Why did this happen ​ Who is responsible ​ What is the remedy ○​ Protest, therefore, occurs when someone frames and experiences, event, or object into a “problem” with a responsible party ​ Framing: Michael Brown shooting ○​ Black lives matter ​ Relative deprivation ​ Were things suddenly getting better and then suddenly declined? ​ Did reality disappoint existing expectations? ​ Did aspirations increase? ​ Prospect theory? ​ Was this a domain of losses? For who? ​ Framing ​ The slogan of the movement ​ The effectiveness of triggers ​ The importance of entrepreneurship ○​ Maga ​ The phrase has been used by presidents in the past (Reagan, Clinton, etc) ○​ Cochabamba ​ Privatization of water ​ The problem  ○​ It is almost always possible to identify a specific grievance associated with a movement ​ However it is not always possible to identify a specific movement associated with a grievance ○​ Why is there less mobilization than the number of potential grievances would suggest? ​ Contentious Political Action ○​ What is a collective action problem ​ Is the benefit a public good? ​ Is there a cost associated with participation in a protest? ​ From a rational choice perspective, why should I contribute if I get the good regardless of what I do? ○​ Solutions to the collective action problem ​ Small groups, where the participation of any one individual is crucial to the success of the collective action ​ The existence of a hegemon who pays the cost of the collective action ​ Privatizing the public good, so that only those who participate can receive it ​ Housing associations in Mexico and Brazil ○​ Details records kept of who went to meetings and who went to protests ​ Selective incentives for participation ​ PRI rallies that offered free lunches and clothing to participating ○​ Non-rational choice solutions ​ Imposition of selective social costs and incentives: the power of the social group ​ The intrinsic emotional and psychological release achieved by protesting 11/07/20244 ​ Electoral authority regimes ○​ Once a fairly rare occurrence thought to exist primarily to provide a cover of democratic legitimacy ○​ Today, the fasting rising form of an authoritarian regime is electoral authoritarian ○​ Electoral authoritarianism ​ Authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes hold regular elections primarily to provide legitimacy to the leader/elite/regime ​ Other parties exist and compete in elections, win some seats in legislatures controlled by regime dominated parties, but may not win power ​ These elections are neither free nor fair ○​ Electoral authoritarianism in Mexico ​ The perfect dictatorship is not communism, not the USSR, the perfect dictatorship is Mexico because it is a camouflage dictatorship  ​ Key leaders in Mexican Revolution ○​ Porfirio Diaz - died in exile in 1915 ○​ Fransisco Madero - murdered in 1913 ○​ Pancho Villa - assassinated in 1923 ○​ Emiliano Zapata - assassinated 1923 ​ Plutarchos Dilemma ​ Called for the formation of a new national party to include all the regional caudillos (and their armies) ​ Rather than competing in elections, share national power after uncompetitive elections ​ The number of registered parties dropped from 51 to 4 ​ State corporatism, affiliated to PRI ○​ Labor unions ○​ Peasant unions ○​ State employee unions ○​ Elections under the PRI before the election ​ PRI controlled voter registry: could “shave” away opposition voters and add “ghost” voters to pad the PRI vote ​ PRi-controlled voter registry ​ Free media time for the government to promote PRI/ government achievements; very limited access for opposition ​ State resources used to buy the popular vote ​ Elections under the PRI ○​ The day of the election ​ Stuffing ballot boxes ​ Already filled with votes before ​ Taco: deposit multiple ballots at once (folded like taco) ​ Acarreo (vote early and often) ​ Vote at multiple polling locations ​ Raton loco (crazy mouse) ​ To discourage people from voting ​ Would say the name doesn’t appear on the voter list ​ Polling place workers selected by the PRI ○​ Elections under the PRI after the election ​ “Auto Calificación” ○​ The functions of elections in electoral authoritarianism ​ Claim legitimacy ​ Prove majority popular support ​ Demonstrate electoral invincibility ○​ Co Opt opposition: convincing potential opponents to waste time and resources participating in an election that cannot win rather than engaging in more disruptive activities ○​ Opportunity for authoritarian rulers to renew the authoritarian support coalition ○​ Engage in the distribution of patronage benefits and resources on a cyclical basis  ○​ Observe the behavior of clients (prove that you can organize a campaign and mobilize the vote) ○​ Circulation of elites (more or less, depending on the regime) ​ Why don't all authoritarian regimes hold elections> ○​ It is hard to hold successful fake elections ○​ The more you have to fake it, the easier it is to detect the fakeness and the more costly it is to repress/ commit fraud ○​ Ironically, electoral authoritarianism works best for authoritarians ​ President Fox, 2000 ○​ New independent professional electoral institute ​ Authoritarian regimes ○​ Authorization institutionalization ​ All durable authoritarian regimes have some degree of institutionalization ​ There will be a state, a judiciary, and a military ​ Norms and institutions may be relatively informal or relatively formal ​ However, the nature of the authoritarian regime depends on where power ○​ The dictator's dilemma ​ Authoritarian regime use repression to at least some extent ​ The rulers opponents and rivals ​ As a result a dictator may take one or more of the following actions ​ Increase repression and spying, which increases secretiveness, which further decreases information about true preferences ​ Spend more resources than is rational to co-opt the opposition (or too few) ​ Divider and conquer: pit potential rivals against each other to avoid plots, which weakens the state and ultimately reduces his power ○​ Personalist regimes ​ When most power and legitimacy is concentrated in the figure of the supreme leader, personalist regimes arise ​ Personalist regimes can be very erratic, depending on the personality of the leader ​ Personalise leaders tend to undermine other institutions, especially the military ​ The problem of succession is particularly acute for personalist regimes ​ Of 51 regimes, only 4 survived the dictator's death or overthrow ​ Average life span was about 15 years compared to 23 for one-party regimes ○​ Military authoritarian regimes ​ The military is a key player in all authoritarian regimes ​ To some extent, no regime survives without devising a method of controlling those who have the guns, including democratic regimes, but authoritarian regimes that use force or the threat of force against the  civilian population to stay in power- are particularly dependent on the military ​ When active duty military officers are in charge of the regime and hold the most power, military regimes arise ○​ Military regimes: less stable: ​ Military regimes are the ​ shortest-lived of the three major types of authoritarian regime ​ They are more likely to negotiate their way out of power ​ 31% of transitions from military rule since 1945 resulted in stable, long-lived democracies ​ Only 16% of the breakdown of personalist regimes leads to stable democracies ○​ An authoritarian regime covered by a political party ​ Some authoritarian regimes are run by an institutionalized ○​ The judiciary ​ Even authoritarian regimes encourage the rule of law in an attempt to keep order ​ However, authoritarian regimes cannot afford to allow the judiciary sufficient independence to bring cases against the regime itself ○​ The bureaucracy ​ Usually not very strong ​ Usually not independent ​ Usually extremely corrupt ○​ Patron client relations ​ The weaken the institutions, the more important patron-client relations become informal relational networks that provide citizens with access to government ​ Based on interpersonal 11/18/2024 ​ Regime Changes ○​ Process through which one regime ( a set of rules that govern the relationship between states and citizens) is transformed into another ​ Coup d’etat ​ Democratization ​ Democratic backsliding/authorittarianization ○​ It is often not clear in the short term what kind of regime change is taking place ​ Copy d’etat ​ Sudden seizure of power from the existing government, often through force ​ Usually performed by the military, though alternate types include ○​ Societal coup, involving mass popular protests ○​ Sel-coup, with the president dissolving legislative and assuming extra-constitutional powers  ○​ The military must at least stand neutral or tactually support action against the government ​ Results in a regime change when the nature of the acts holding power and their support coalition changes ​ It is possible however for a coup not to result in a military change ○​ For instance, a military coup within a military regime may simply change the office in charge ​ Military coups happen when all efforts to keep the military loyal to the regime fail ​ Three major explanations: ○​ Weak state and political cultures that do not value nonmilitary transfer of power ○​ Professionalized military seeking its own interests ○​ Individuals use the military to advance personal goals (neopatrimonialism) ​ Case Study: Nigeria ​ Weak state and political cultures that do not value nonmilitary transfer of power ​ Nigerian state was certainly weak and ineffective; coup leaders claimed to promote the development ​ Both coups against democracies took place in a context of post-electoral violence and accusations of fraud, to restore order ​ Reducing corruption in civilian governments was also a goal of coup leaders, especially in 1983 ​ However, only two of the six coups were against civilian democratic regimes ​ Professionalized military seeking its interests ○​ Nigeria's military was neither professionalized nor institutionalized ○​ Reflected ethnic and regional divisions in society ○​ By 1983, the military was severely infected with corruption as well ○​ Most coups simply replaced one military leader with another ​ Democracy​ ​ Systems of government that meets three essential conditions ○​ 1. Meaningful and extensive competition ○​ Highly inclusive political participation ○​ A level of civil and political liberties sufficient to ensure the integrity ​ Freedom house ​ Freedom in the world is produced each year by a team of in-house and external analysts and expert advisers from the academic, think tank  ​ Democracy score ○​ 0-1 points for each of 10 political eight and 15 civil liberties indicators, which take the form of questions ​ A score of o represented the smallest degrees of freedom and 4 is the biggest ​ Modernization theory ​ High levels of economic development are associated with a stable democracy ​ Typically we use GDP per capita as a shortcut to measure economic development ​ The modernization package: ○​ High GDP per capita, industrialization, education, urbanization, spread of mass media, technology ​ Some or all of these characteristics favor democracy ○​ GDP per capita is not a good predictor of when the country in question is a major oil producer ○​ Oil wealth alone, especially in the hands of the state can be used to protect authoritarian rule ​ Does not do a very good job of predicting when democratic transition will occur, but a rather good job of predicting when democracies are going to last ○​ Inequality ​ Democracy carries a risk that the poor will vote (with superior numbers) to redistribute resources from the rich ​ When economic inequality is high, the rich will fight for democracy ​ The cost of repression is lower than the cost of democracy ​ As inequality decreases the cost of conceding democracy may become lower than the cost of continued mass repression ○​ Culture and society ​ Countries that share democratic beliefs, values, and attitudes are more likely to sustain democracy ​ Countries with compatible (nonauthoritarian) religious tradition are more likely to sustain democracy ​ In particular Muslim majority countries are especially hostile to stable democracy ​ Countries with low levels of ethnic diversity are more likely to sustain democracy ○​ Democratic political culture ​ Tolerance ​ Opposite of polarization ​ Compromise ​ Be able to work across the isles ​ Strong leaders are able to do that ​ Belief in the value of participation  ​ Literacy ​ If people are unable to understand they won't be able to make good democratic choices ​ Social trust ​ Efficacy: people like me can change events ​ People are participating in lobbying, protest, etc ​ Positive Evaluations of democracy, government ​ If you don’t believe in democracy you're not going to defend it ○​ Democracy as a negotiated outcome ​ Democracy results from active pressure by a democratic opposition, combined with a vulnerable and divided authoritarian rule ​ Step one: ​ Motr authoritarian regimes have a basic legitimacy problem ○​ No justification for staying in power other than their practical ability to deliver performance ​ Step two: ​ Legitimacy problems grow acute because of a performance failure, often an economic crisis ​ Step three:​ ​ Authoritarian elites split over how to address the legitimacy problems ​ “Hardliners” want to solve the problem by repressing the dissenters ​ “Softliners” want to solve the problem by loosening some restrictions, letting dissenters vent ​ Step four: ​ If the hardliners win, they get repressed, and democratization stops ​ If the soft liners win, the democratic opposition takes this as an opportunity ○​ “Resurrection of civil society” - as the costs and risks of protest go down, more people participate ○​ Democratic elites begin to negotiate with soft liners ○​ Democracy in waves ​ Democracy seems to occur in “waves” by regions ​ Examples of a similar regime dictator falling may inspire and even transmit specific techniques for pressuring your region ​ First long wave from 1826-1926 ​ 1920’s: reverse wave, countries became non-democratic ​ Second wave: 1940s-1960’s ​ Second reverse wave: 1960’s-1970’s ​ Third wave: 1974 -? ○​ Case study: Brazil ​ 1985 transition to democracy  ​ Gradual and directed from above by the military ​ Starts in 1974 with the “aperture”: the military announces a reduction of restrictions on civil society ​ 1978-1980: wav of union strikes and popular protests against challenging regimes, the reaction is repression ​ 1981-82: economic crisis contributes to pressure ​ Results in 1985 election of first civilian president since 1960 (though not direct election) ​ Negotiated transition between military and political elites results in protected privileges for military and conservative economic interests ○​ Case Study: Nigeria ​ 1999 transition to democracy ​ Takes place after the death of the previous military dictator, Sani Abacha, in 1998 ​ Northern military elite chooses Gen. Obasanjo who guided the 1979 democratic transition as its presidential transition; widely respected and also a Yoruba, from the southwest ​ Obasanjo wins easily in 199, and 2003 ​ In 2007, the Obasanjo's party won 72% of the vote though partly through fraud ​ In 2011 same party won re-election again with 59% of the vote ​ Presidents have been able to replace military officers ​ Supreme Court was strengthened ​ By 2015, Nigeria experiences the first peaceful transition from one elected president to another ​ Why has the 1999 transition lasted longer than previous transitions? ​ Cross ethnic coalition ​ World commodity boom ​ Demonstration effects ○​ Democratic reversals ​ Democratic backsliding: a decline in the quality of democracy, including the extent of participation, the rule of law, and vertical and horizontal accountability ​ Hungary ​ Authoritatianization: the creation of an authoritarian regime via the undermining of democratic institutions by elected incumbents ○​ Subverting democracy (how do they do that) ​ 1. Capture the referees ​ These include the judicial system, law enforcement bodies, and intelligence, tax, and regulatory agencies ​ In democracies, such institutions are designed to serve as neutral arbiters  ​ If they remain independent, they might expose and punish government abuse ​ But if these agencies are controlled by loyalists they could serve a would-be dictators aims ​ 2. Sideline the oppositions “star players” ​ Key players might include opposition politicians, business leaders who finance the opposition, major media outlets, and in some cases, religious or other cultural figures who enjoy a certain public moral standing ​ 3. Change the rules of the game ​ Reform the constitution ​ Change electoral laws in ways that disadvantage or weaken the opposition, for example redistricting or making it harder for opposition voters to register to vote ○​ Examples of the south introducing literacy laws after the civil war to prevent newly enfranchised blacks from voting ​ These changes are often sold as “democratic” even when their effects lack in advantages for one side ​ Even democratically elected presidents can concentrate power and threaten civil liberties during a crisis ​ Eg, abraham lincoln suspended habeas corpus during the civil war ​ Most of all, demonize the opposition ​ States and Markets ○​ The market and capitalism ​ Market economy: an economic system in which individuals and firms exchange goods and services in a largely unfettered manner ​ Capitalism: a combination of a market economy with private property rights ​ Command economy: economic system in which most prices, property, and production are directly controlled by the state ○​ Essential roles of states in the economy ​ Establishing and enforcing property and contract rights ​ Creating and controlling currency ​ Providing public goods ​ Public goods: goods or services that cannot and will not be provided by private markets because costs to individuals are too high ​ State provision of: ○​ Education ○​ Infrastructure (roads, electricity, telecommunications) ○​ Health care ○​ Beneficial role of states ​ Intervention to correct market failure and externalities  ​ Forcing all businesses to meet environmental standards ​ Prevention or regulation of monopolies ○​ Politically generated roles ​ Taken on because of populous demands then, such as ​ Improved working conditions ​ Policies to redistribute income ​ Environmental protection ​ Social security ​ It may also have economically beneficial side effects ○​ Keynesianism vs monetarism ​ Markets may revive naturally in the long run, but “this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead” ​ States should use fiscal policy to revive economy during economic downturns ​ Diagnosis: In an economic downturn, the problem is low demand ​ Prescription: If the state spends money to increase de,amd, private spending will also increase and the economy will revive ​ The government should borrow money to finance this spending ○​ Deficit spending ​ Once the economy recovers, the state can cut spending below revenues and pay back the debts incurred ​ Added benefit: by reducing spending, the state keeps the ​ Keynes on marxism: ​ “Illogical and dull” ​ Keyes on markets: ​ “Capitalism, wisely managed, can be made more efficient than any alternative system yet in sight” ​ Believed ○​ Monetarism ​ prescription: adjust the money supply to stimulate or slow down the economy ​ States will determine how much money in circulation ​ If states add more money, people won't simply hide it under their mattresses, they will spend it ​ Thus, increasing money in circulation tends to increase demand, which raises economic growth rates ​ If states reduce money supply, people will have less money to spend, which reduces demand and lowers the economic growth rate ○​ Developmental state ​ Development economics, similar to Keynesianism, envisions a role for the state in the economy: the developmental state  ​ Much stronger that the keynesian state: the developmental state intervenes to prompt domestic development and regulate interactions with trading partners ○​ Neoliberalism ​ Monteralist-inspired model, advocating a limited ​ Does not guarantee industrialization ○​ Developmental state ​ Managed capitalism for developing countries ​ Developed state invernes in economies to stimulate rapid industrialization and growth ​ Also protects the domestic economy from competition with foreign ○​ ISI ​ Under ISI, states still had to import foreign technology, thus states incurred increased debt ​ In addition, reliance on domestic consumers meant that sooner or later, domestic industry ran out of customers at ISIs inflated price levels, and the economy began to slow down ​ Unless new markets could be reached by lowering costs and improving efficiency, ISI reached a breaking point ​ The debt crisis and economic stagnation triggered this policy shift ○​ Types of state-market relationships ​ Varieties of capitalism (VOC): divides welathly market economics into liberal market economics and coordinated market economics (Social Market economics) and argues that they react differently to the challenges of globalization 12/03/2024 ~ Last Lecture! ​ Difference in welfare states: the cost ○​ top individual income tax rate ​ Sweden: 57% ​ Germany: 45% ​ United States: 10- 39.6% ○​ Top corporate tax rate ​ Germany: 29.8% ​ Sweden: 22% ​ United States: 0-39% ○​ Payroll taxes ​ Sweden: 31.4% ​ Germany: 41% ​ United States: 15% ​ Brazil ○​ Pioneer in the development of conditional cash transfer programs ○​ Means-tested programs to effectively target the poor while increasing social investment  ○​ Provides cash grants to families who send their children to school and public health clinics ○​ Target women as the main benefits ​ Women get the debit card, are recipients of the Bolsa Familia check-in ​ Child mortality was lowered by 77% in 10 years ​ Most money is spent on food from Bolsa Familia funding ​ Money also spent on school supplies and medicine ​ Unprecedented declines inequality ​ Public policy: Is health care a human right? How should it be paid for? ○​ The market for healthcare ​ Inelasticity of demand: you can’t choose when/whether to purchase medical care ​ poor/incomplete information about what kind of care you need and how much it ought to cost ​ Therefore, the market is not very competitive: you can’t really comparison shop ○​ The moral hazards of health insurance ​ In a private health care market, with voluntary purchase of health care insurance those who are least at risk of needed health care are least likely to purchase health care insurance ​ Insurance companies charge high-risk customers higher premiums to cover payments ​ The fewer healthy people buy insurance, the more insurance will cost, which causes fewer healthy young people to buy insurance, which causes the cost of insurance to rise ​ Insurance companies know that there is an asymmetry of information: customers know more than companies about their health practices ​ Having insurance may cause people to overuse medical care, knowing they won't have to pay ​ Knowing insurance paid by the patient/procedure may cause doctors to over-prescribe tests/procedures ○​ The result is rising costa ○​ Health care systems ​ National Health Insurance (NHI) ​ Germany ​ The government mandates that everyone buys insurance, subsidizing or covering costs for those who cannot afford it ​ Typically allows and encourage multiple private insurance providers ​ The government regulates the system ​ National Health System (NHS), also known as the “single-payer system ​ United Kingdom ​ Government-financed and managed system ​ All citizens pay, via general taxation  ​ The government controls the cost of medical care via payments for procedures, equipment, and drugs ​ Market-based private insurance company ​ United States ​ Citizens gain insurance through their employment ​ Medical care is provided mostly by for-profit entities ​ The government does not guarantee access to health care to all citizens ​ The US, Chile, Turkey, and Mexico are the only OECD that rely on private insurance for the bulk of their healthcare ○​ Health system outcomes ○​ Germany: ​ System: national health insurance ​ All residents must buy health insurance ​ “Sickness plans”: nonprofit employee/employee associations ​ Unemployment buy plans with costs covered by state ​ Choose among 150-200 plants ​ Costs contained through national negotiations between “sickness plans”, regional physicians associations, and drug companies ○​ The United Kingdom: ​ System: National Health System ​ Works like a national HMOL ​ British patients sign up ○​ Rising health care costs ​ Costs increasing in all three systems, driven by an agin population and technological innovations ​ The question of how to provide health care remains a contentious politcal issue in al developed and developing countries ​ Covid 19 made many invisible problems all too visible as we see in its differential impact across countries and social groups `