Photovoltaics Report PDF 2024

Photovoltaics Report — Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, ISE with the support of PSE Projects GmbH Freiburg, 29 July 2024 www.ise.fraunhofer.de CONTENT  Quick Facts  Topics:  PV Market  Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency  Life cycle assessment (LCA) and sustai...

Photovoltaics Report — Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, ISE with the support of PSE Projects GmbH Freiburg, 29 July 2024 www.ise.fraunhofer.de CONTENT  Quick Facts  Topics:  PV Market  Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency  Life cycle assessment (LCA) and sustainability aspects  Price Development  Abbreviations  Further Studies and Analyses  Acknowledgements 2 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Introduction Preliminary Remarks  The intention of this presentation is to provide up-to-date information. However, facts and figures change rapidly, and the given information may soon be outdated again.  This work has been carried out under the responsibility of Dr. Simon Philipps (Fraunhofer ISE) and Werner Warmuth (PSE Projects GmbH).  Price indications are always to be understood as nominal, unless this is stated explicitly. For example, prices in the learning curves are inflation adjusted.  The slides have been made as accurate as possible and we would be grateful to receive any comments or suggestions for improvement. Please send your feedback to both [email protected] and [email protected]  Please quote the information presented in these slides as follows: ©Fraunhofer ISE: Photovoltaics Report, updated: 30 July 2024 3 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Quick Facts Parameter Value Status Reference Date of data Germany / EU27 / Worldwide PV installation market [GW] 7.5 / 41.4 / 240 GW End of 2022 BNA / SPE / IEA 03/2023; 01/2023; 04/2023 15.1 / 55.9 / 407 GW End of 2023 BNA / SPE / IEA 06/2024; 12/2023; 04/2024 Cumulative installation [GW] 67.6 / 207 / 1,185 GW End of 2022 ISE / SPE / IEA 03/2023; 12/2023; 04/2023 82.7 / 263 / 1,581 GW End of 2023 ISE / SPE / IEA 06/2024; 12/2023; 04/2024 PV power generation [TWh] 54.3net / 209.1gross / 1,321.9gross 2022 ISE / EI / EI 06/2024; 06/2024; 06/2024 53.9net / 246.8gross / 1,641.6gross 2023 ISE / EI / EI 06/2024; 06/2024; 06/2024 PV electricity share 11.0%net / 7.4%gross / 4.5%gross 2022 ISE / EI / EI 06/2024; 06/2024; 06/2024 12.5%net / 9.0%gross / 5.5%gross 2023 ISE / EI / EI 06/2024; 06/2024; 06/2024 Worldwide c-Si share of production 97% 2023 ITRPV 04/2024 Record solar cell efficiency: III-V MJ 47.6 / 27.3 / 23.4 / 24.4 / 21.0% 06/2024 Green et al. 06/2024 (conc.)/mono-Si/CIGS/multi-Si/CdTe Germany Price PV rooftop system (3 to 10 kWp) 1,450 to 2,000 €/kWp 2023 BSW 11/2023 LCOE PV power plant 3.1 to 5.7 ct€ / kWh 2021 ISE 4Lowest/Latest PV-Tender Price 4.33/5.17 ct€ / kWh 02/2018; BNA 12/2023 (average, volume-weighted value) ©Fraunhofer ISE 12/2023 public Executive Summary PV Market: Global  Photovoltaics is a fast-growing market: The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of cumulative PV installations was about 26% between year 2013 to 2023.  In 2023 producers from Asia count for 94% of total PV module production. China (mainland) holds the lead with a share of about 86%. Europe and USA/CAN each contributed 2%.  Wafer size increased and by keeping the number of cells larger PV module sizes are realized allowing a power range beyond 700 W per module.  In 2023, Europe’s contribution to the total cumulative PV installations amounted to 20%. In contrast, installations in China accounted for 43% (previous year 37%) and North America for 10%.  Si-wafer based PV technology accounted for about 97% of the total production in 2023. Mono-crystalline technology became the dominant technology in c-Si production while multi-crystalline technology is phasing out.  Market shifts from subsidy driven to competitive pricing model (Power Purchase Agreements PPA).  In addition to PV systems on buildings (Rooftop or Building-Integrated) and ground-mounted systems, more and more systems are being installed on agricultural land (Agrivoltaics) and bodies of water (Floating PV). Furthermore, vehicle-integrated PV enters the market. 5 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Executive Summary PV Market: Focus Germany  In year 2023, Germany accounted for about 5.2% (82.7 GWp) of the cumulative PV capacity installed worldwide (1581 GWp) with about 3.7 million PV systems installed in Germany. In 2023 the newly installed capacity in Germany was about 15 GWp according to BNA; in 2022 it was 7.5 GWp.  In 2023, PV accounts for 12.5% of net electricity generation and all renewable energies together for around 60%.  In 2023 about 42 Mio. t CO2 equivalent GHG emissions have been avoided due to 61 TWh PV electricity consumed in Germany.  PV system performance has strongly improved. Before year 2000 the typical Performance Ratio was about 70%, while today it is in the range of 80% to 90%.  Often residential and small commercial PV systems are installed with a battery storage and a charging station for electric mobility. Due to relative high electricity tariffs in Germany, self consumption is the prevailing business model. Another trend is the increased installation of balcony solar systems.  With the increasing generation capacity from solar and wind, the integration of volatile electricity into the grids is becoming ever more important. Grid expansion, load management, smart grids, bidirectional charging of vehicle batteries etc. must be promoted to avoid temporary switching off of renewable power plants (curtailment). 6 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Executive Summary Solar Cell / Module Efficiencies  The record lab cell efficiency* is 27.3% for mono-crystalline and 24.4% for multi-crystalline silicon wafer-based technology. The highest lab efficiency in thin film technology is 23.4% for CIGS and 21.0% for CdTe solar cells. Record lab cell efficiency for Perovskite is 25.2%.  In the last 10 years, the efficiency of commercial mono-crystalline wafer-based silicon modules increased from about 16% to 22% and more. At the same time, the efficiency of CdTe module increased from 9% to nearly 20%.  In the laboratory, the best performing modules are based on mono-crystalline silicon with 24.9% efficiency. Record efficiencies demonstrate the potential for further efficiency increases at the production level.  In the laboratory, high concentration multi-junction solar cells achieve an efficiency of up to 47.6% today. With concentrator technology, module efficiencies of up to 38.9% have been reached. 7 * Only official lab record efficiencies with minimum cell area of 1 cm2 are listed. Latest reference: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Version 64), Progress in ©Fraunhofer ISE public Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 06/2024 Executive Summary Energy Payback Time  Material usage for silicon cells has been reduced significantly during the last 18 years from around 16 g/Wp (in 2004) to about 2.2 g/Wp in 2023 due to increased efficiencies, thinner wafers (150µm) using diamond wire saws, and larger ingots.  The Energy Payback Time of PV systems is dependent on the geographical location: PV systems manufactured in Europe and installed in Northern Europe require approximately 1.1 years to pay back the energy input, while PV systems installed in the South require 0.9 years to pay back the energy input, depending on the technology installed and the grid efficiency.  A PV system located in Sicily using wafer-based Silicon modules has an Energy Payback Time of about one year. Assuming a 20-year lifetime, this type of system can produce twenty times the energy required to produce it.  PV modules can be recycled to recover rare and valuable materials. Further research and development is needed to make these recycling processes even more in-depth and cost-effective. 8 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Executive Summary Price Development  Due to the coronavirus crisis and the associated disruptions to supply and trade chains, market prices rose noticeably in 2022 and at times some products were not available in sufficient quantities. In 2023 prices fell again.  In Germany prices for a typical 10 to 100 kWp PV rooftop-system were around 14,000 €/kWp in 1990. At the end of 2023, such systems cost only 10% of the price in 1990. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of net prices has been -6.8% over the past 33 years.  The Experience Curve – also called Learning Curve - shows that in the last 43 years the module price decreased by 24.4% with each doubling of the cumulated global module production. Cost reduction results from economies of scale and technological improvements. Global average Selling price (ASP) was about 0.20 US$/Wp in 2023. 9 ©Fraunhofer ISE public 1. PV Market  By region  By technology 10 ©Fraunhofer ISE public PV Module Production by Region 1990-2023 Percentage of Total MWp Produced 11 Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and ©Fraunhofer ISE public other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 04/2024 PV Module Production by Region Global Annual Production Annual Production Today — Annual production has increased 13-fold over the past decade. In 2023, approximately 95% of solar modules and their components came from Asia, primarily from China with a module production share of about 80%, which also controls more than 95% of the market for certain components such as ingots and wafers. Data from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates basaed on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data 04/2024 12 ©Fraunhofer ISE public  EU PV Manufacturing Landscape – Status Quo Overview of PV production along the value chain – July 2024 Nominal Production- Capacities in the region [GWp/a]: pcc SE Stakksberg Module 8.6 ELKEM EU27 + CH, NO, UK Solar Cells 1.4 Value Chain Wacker mg-Si Norway Source: ©iStock.com / Kateryna Novokhatnia Ingot & Wafer 0.0 Nameplate Prod. Capacity mg-Si / poly-Si Poly-Si Ingot / Wafer Nameplate Production Capacity Poly-Si ~29*,** Solar Cell Module Module – Ingot (MWp/a) mg-Si ~58 SoliTek MetSolar Sonnenstromfabrik (*1000 10³ kg/a) Fab Size Aleo > 1 GWp MeyerBurger ASWS Bruk-Bet > 500 MWp Soluxtec Solarwelt Heckert Wacker Agora Solar > 100 MWp Voltec Megasol Sonnenkraft KarpatSolar 3S Tenka EXE Ferroglobe BiSol Solvis Peimar Domi Eko Escelco RECOM Sunerg Exiom PiKCell Silicon Valen Ferroglobe Module Solar Ingot&Wafe poly- mg- cell r Si Si Status 07/24 13 * Currently 2,100 kg/MWp poly-Si required for Ingot production ** Most of the available poly-Si capacity is held in reserve for the semiconductor industry ©Fraunhofer ISE public PV Production in Germany - Status Quo PV module supplier – July 2024 Value-added stage mg-Si Company Location Capacity Website Poly-Si [MW] Ingot / Wafer Solarzelle ASWS Mettmann 800 https://www.asws-solar.de/ Module Sonnenstromfabrik Source: ©iStock.com / Kateryna Novokhatnia Soluxtec Bitburg 550 https://www.soluxtec.de/ Factory size Sonnenstromfabrik Wismar 525 https://www.sonnenstromfabrik.com/de/ > 1 GWp Oxford PV Aleo Solar Solarwelt (Heckert) Langenwetzendorf 400 https://www.heckertsolar.com/standort-lwd/ > 500 MWp NexWafe Heckert Solar Chemnitz 400 https://www.heckertsolar.com > 100 MWp ASWS MeyerBurger Avancis Wacker > 50 MWp Sunmaxx Aleo Solar Berlin 300 https://www.aleo-solar.de/ Antec Soluxtec Solarwelt Heckert Avancis Torgau 100 https://www.avancis.de/ AxSun Laupheim 50 https://www.axsun.de/ Sunmaxx Ottendorf-Okrilla 50 https://sunmaxx-pvt.com/de AxSun Wacker The production capacity for PV modules in Germany amounted to about 3.2 GWp in July 2024. Data and Graph: Jochen Rentsch, Fraunhofer ISE 2024; last update: 07/2024 Status 05/07/24 14 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Global Cumulative PV Installation by Region © Fraunhofer ISE Note: The IRENA data shown here differs from that of the IEA PVPS: IRENA: 1,412 GWp Data: IRENA 2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: April-2024 IEA-PVPS: 1,581 GWp 15 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Global Cumulative PV Installation by on-grid & off-grid installation type Approximately 99.6% of today’s installed PV capacity is connected to the grid. The proportion of off-grid systems compared to the total cumulative systems has roughly halved over time from just under 1 % in 2010 to 0.43 % in 2023. Data: IRENA 2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 04/2024 16 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Global Cumulative PV Installation by Region Status 2023 The total cumulative installations amounted to about 1,581 GWp according to IEA-PVPS at the end of year 2023; IRENA reports 1,412 GWp. All percentages are related to global installed PV capacity, including off-grid systems. © Fraunhofer ISE Data: IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global Market; IRENA 2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024; Date of data: 04/2024 17 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Annually Installed PV System Capacity in Germany Percentage of Annual Capacity by System Size 100% Share of capacity additions 80% The annual distribution of PV 60% system size classes strongly 40% depends on:  Regulations 20%  Market incentives (like EEG)  Tender procedures 0%  Bankability (trust of investors) Years Ground-mounted (x > 1000 kWp) Ground-mounted (750 < x ≤ 1000 kWp) Ground-mounted (x ≤ 750 kWp) Building (x > 1000 kWp) The “Building” category includes roofs, Building (750 < x ≤ 1000 kWp) Building (500 ≤ x ≤ 750 kWp) facades and plug-in systems Building (100 ≤ x < 500 kWp) Building (30 ≤ x < 100 kWp) The “Ground-mounted” category Building (20 ≤ x < 30 kWp) Building (10 < x < 20 kWp) includes bodies of water, parking lots and Building (x ≤ 10 kWp) other structures 18 Source until year 2020: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculations based on EEG-master and -flow data (netztransparenz.de, Sept. 2021) ©Fraunhofer ISE Source since 2021: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculations based on MaStR (Date: 18.03.2024) and data validation algorithm public Share of Number of PV Systems Installed Percentage of Cumulative Installations by System Size in Germany in 2023 Total number of all Number of PV-Systems grid-connected PV-Systems larger than 500 kWp End of 2023 about 702.108 18,89% 262.780 180.961 3.7 million grid- 7,07% 4,87% 786 0,02% connected PV-Systems 45.333 1,22% 5.007 were installed in 0,13% Germany. 56.325 1,52% 5.735 0,15% 990 2.456.713 0,03% 840 66,08% 0,02% Building (x ≤ 10 kWp) Building (10 < x < 20 kWp) Building (20 ≤ x < 30 kWp) Building (30 ≤ x < 100 kWp) In 2023, around 500,000 plug-in Building (100 ≤ x < 500 kWp) Building (500 ≤ x ≤ 750 kWp) systems (up to 600 W feed-in Building (750 < x ≤ 1000 kWp) Building (x > 1000 kWp) Ground-mounted (x ≤ 750 kWp) Ground-mounted (750 < x ≤ 1000 kWp) power), so-called balcony solar Ground-mounted (x > 1000 kWp) © Fraunhofer ISE systems, were installed in Germany. 19 Source: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculations based on MaStR (Date: 18.03.2024) and data validation algorithm ©Fraunhofer ISE Includes reported plug-in systems and systems assigned to this category according to MaStR (Date: 18.03.2024) and additional estimates public by Fraunhofer ISE  Share of Capacity of PV-Systems Installed Percentage of Cumulative Installations by System Size in Germany in 2023 PV Capacity in MWp and percentage PV Capacity in MWp and percentage of all grid-connected PV-Systems of Systems larger than 500 kWp 9.612 12% 9.934 Building (x ≤ 10 kWp) 12% 21.993 27% Building (10 < x < 20 kWp) Building (20 ≤ x < 30 kWp) 6.818 8% Building (30 ≤ x < 100 kWp) 713 1% Building (100 ≤ x < 500 kWp) 3.260 Building (500 ≤ x ≤ 750 kWp) 9.460 4% 11% Building (750 < x ≤ 1000 kWp) 1.443 2% 891 3.791 1% 5% 14.453 Mostly within the building PV 17% End of 2023 a total cumulated PV system class (x ≤ 10 kWp), balcony © Fraunhofer ISE solar systems (up to 600 W feed-in capacity of about 82.4 GWp was power) accounted for 380 MWp in installed in Germany. 2023 in Germany. 20 Source: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculations based on MaStR (Date: 18.03.2024) and data validation algorithm ©Fraunhofer ISE Includes reported plug-in systems and systems assigned to this category according to MaStR (Date: 18.03.2024) public and additional estimates by Fraunhofer ISE Share of PV-Installations with Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) Residential Rooftop Systems in Germany Until the end of 2023: By year of By the end of 2023 over commissioning: 40% (1.2 million units) of 2% 100% all residential PV-systems 90% are combined with a 80% 1.2 Million 40% 70% BESS. residential rooftop 60% Share PV systems are 50% The share of residential 40% combined with a 30% rooftop PV-systems with battery storage 20% a BESS increased from 58% system 10% below 20% for 0% © Fraunhofer ISE 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 commissioning in 2014 to Year of commissioning almost 80% in 2023. Residential rooftop PV systems PV systems with battery storage PV system without battery storage Unknown are defined as all systems on buildings with a maximum capacity of 30 kWp according to MaStR-Data. 21 Source: Marktstammdatenregister - MaStR (Date: 01.04.2024) ©Fraunhofer ISE public Share of PV-Installations with Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) Commercial and Utility-Scale Systems in Germany Commercial rooftop Utility-scale ground-mounted systems 100% 100% systems 80% 80% 60% 60% Share Share 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Year of commissioning Year of commissioning PV systems with battery storage PV system without battery storage PV systems with battery storage PV system without battery storage Unknown Unknown The share of PV installations with BESS increased There is a significant increase in PV with from 5% for commissioning in 2014 to 20% in BESS shares in 2022 and 2023 to around 7% 2023 in the commercial rooftop sector. in the utility-scale PV power plant sector. Commercial rooftop PV systems are defined as all systems on Utility-scale ground-mounted PV systems are defined as all ground- buildings with a capacity greater than 30 kWp according to mounted systems with a capacity greater than 1 MWp according to MaStR-Data. MaStR-Data. 22 Source: Marktstammdatenregister - MaStR (Date: 01.04.2024) ©Fraunhofer ISE public © Fraunhofer ISE Electrical Capacity of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Germany 165.6 GW of total 261.6 GW net installed electricity generation capacity in Germany were from renewable energy sources (RES) in Germany in year 2023. This results in a RE share of 63.3% of total capacity. Data:: Energy Charts by Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger. Date of data: 03/2024 23 ©Fraunhofer ISE public PV Energy Generated and Resulting GHG Avoided Emissions Germany In 2023 Greenhouse Gas emissions of about 42 Mio. t CO₂-equivalent were avoided due to 61 TWh PV electricity consumed in Germany. Data: BMU, BDEW, BMWi, Federal Environmental Agency (UBA) 02/2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 24 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Annual PV Production by Technology Worldwide (in GWp) About 500* GWp PV module production in 2023 2020 2015 Thin film Mono-Si 2010 Multi-Si *2023 production numbers reported by different analysts vary to some extent. About 410 GW have © Fraunhofer ISE been installed in 2023 globally. The TOP10 module 2005 producer together shipped about 375 GW PV panels in 2023. Total PV module shipments are estimated to be between 460 and 502 GW in 2023. 2000 Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 04/2024 25 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Technology Overview Different crystalline-Silicon Cell Technology Market Shares Source: based on ITRPV 2013-2024 26 ©Fraunhofer ISE public PV Production by Technology Percentage of Global Annual Production Production 2023* (GWp) Thin film 13 Multi-Si 4 Mono-Si 485 Total 502 (ITRPV) *estimated Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 04/2024 27 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Market Share of Thin-Film Technologies Percentage of Total Global PV Production Thin-Film technology contributed in year 2023 with about 2.5% to the total PV-market. Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 04/2024 28 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Thin-Film Technologies Annual Global PV Module Production Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 04/2024 29 ©Fraunhofer ISE public 2. Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency  Development in the Laboratories  Development in the PV Industry  Performance Ratio (PR) 30 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Development of Laboratory Solar Cell Efficiencies Data: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Versions 1 to 64), Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 1993-2024. Graph: Fraunhofer ISE 2024. Date of data: 06/2024 31 Only official lab record efficiencies published in the Solar Cell Efficiency Tables, Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications are included in ©Fraunhofer ISE the graph. public Efficiency Comparison of Technologies Best Lab Cells vs. Best Lab Modules Note: In mass production, the cell-to- module ratio (CTM) improved in past years by reducing losses and using possible gains when integrating solar cells in modules. Fraunhofer ISE provides SmartCalc.CTM software suite for precise Cell-to- Module (CTM) power loss analysis. It considers geometrical losses, optical losses and gains as well as electrical losses. www.cell-to-module.com Data: Green et al.: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Version 64), Progress in PV: Research and Applications 2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 06/2024 32 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Current Efficiencies and Power of Commercial PV Modules Sorted by technology  Total weighted average efficiency of crystalline Silicon(c-Si) wafer-based modules is 21.6% in Q4-2023 (was 20.9% in Q4-2022); weighting factor is total shipments in year 2023. Lowest module efficiency in this group is 17.4% (was 17.2% one year before) and highest value is 23.3% (was 23.2% in 2022).  Top 10 manufacturers represent about 75% of total shipment volume and origin mainly in Asia.  Predominant c-Si technology is mono-PERC with half-cut cells and Multi-Busbar. Note: The selection is based on modules from the top 10 manufacturers in 2023 (except CIGS), with module data sheets available worldwide at the end of January 2024. For CIGS technology, only a very limited amount of supplier data was available, and the products indicated are manufactured for niche markets such as building integrated PV (BIPV) or flexible module Data Source: company product data sheets; Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024; Date of data: 02/2024 applications, so comparability with the other two technologies is limited. 33 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Performance Ratio Development for PV Systems Germany  In the 1990’s  Typical PR ~70 %  Widely ranging PR values  Today  Typical PR ~83 %  Less variance in PR as compared to 1990’s Source: Fraunhofer ISE “1000 Dächer Jahresbericht“ 1994 and 1997; 2011 system evaluation, CPIA 2021 34 ©Fraunhofer ISE public 3. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Sustainability Aspects  Silicon usage, wafer thickness and kerf loss for c-Si  EPBT: Development and comparison 35 ©Fraunhofer ISE public c-Si Solar Cell Development Wafer Thickness [µm] & Silicon Usage [g/Wp] Data: until 2012: EU PV Technology Platform Strategic Research Agenda, from 2012: ITRPV; from 2016 ISE without; 2017 ongoing with recycling of Si. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024; date of data: 04/2024 36 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Historic Trend in Energy Payback Time Harmonized study data for mono-crystalline silicon rooftop PV systems Learning Rate: Each time the cumulative production doubled, the EPBT went down by 12.8 % for the last 24 years. Harmonization methodology based on Koppelaar (2016) harmonized results and harmonization parameters 1) Performance Ratio based on average annual PV yield during lifetime PV system lifetime 25 Degradation 0.70% PR (initial) 80% PR (incl. average degradation during lifetime) 73.6% 2) Grid efficiency for converting PV yield in primary energy equivalents grid efficiency 35% EPBT of Leccisi (2016), Louwen (2014) and Friedrich (2020) were harmonized with 1) PR (incl. average degradation) and 2) grid efficiency to results of Koppelaar (2016)* Data: Fraunhofer ISE. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2021 Irradiation: 1700 kWh/m²/a at an optimized tilt angle; Years: Estimated average year of original data 37 * Koppelaar (2016) - Solar-PV energy payback and net energy: Meta-assessment of study quality, reproducibility, and results harmonization, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews Leccidi et al. (2016) - The Energy and Environmental Performance of Ground-Mounted Photovoltaic Systems—A Timely Update, Energies ©Fraunhofer ISE Louwen et al. (2014) - Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and energy payback time of current and prospective silicon heterojunction solar cell designs, Progress in Photovoltaics public Friedrich et al. (2020) - Global Warming Potential and Energy Payback Time Analysis of Photovoltaic Electricity by Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC) Solar Modules, submitted JPV Energy Pay-Back Time of Silicon PV Rooftop Systems Geographical Comparison  Rooftop PV system using Irradiation (GTI, kWh/m²/a) EPBT 2200 EPBT by typically 9.5 % compared to PV modules 1.0 year produced in China. Data source: Fraunhofer ISE. Image: JRC European Commission. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2020 (Modified scale with updated data from Fraunhofer ISE) 38 *Cz PERC cells module with 19.9% efficiency ©Fraunhofer ISE **relation between primary energy to produced electricity in the grid used for manufacturing of the PV system public World Map EPBT of Silicon PV Rooftop Systems Comparison of EPBT China EPBT Influencing Factors and Interpretation  EPBT: the lower, the better  Irradiation: the higher, the better  Grid efficiency: the higher, the better in countries where upstream production is located; (better energy mix to generate electrical power; less losses in the electrical transmission network). At downstream (where PV is installed) a low grid efficiency reduces the EPBT. Data source: Fraunhofer ISE. EPBT = Energy Pay Back Time in years: Calculated for PV-system with Cz PERC 60 cells modules with 19.9 % efficiency produced in China 39 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Energy Pay-Back Time of Silicon PV Rooftop Systems – Comparison of EPBT China / EU, local Irradiation and Grid Efficiency 2021 EPBT for PV systems produced in Europe is shorter than for those produced in China because of better grid efficiency in Europe. Data source: Fraunhofer ISE. Calculations for year 2021 made at 22-July 2022 40 ©Fraunhofer ISE public PV-Module Materials and Components Glass Al Frame Interconnector (67.5%) AlMg3 (12.7%) Cu (1.3%) Please note: Highly transparent glass can also be produced Sb Sn (0.09%) / Pb (0.09%) without antimony (Sb), and some European suppliers are doing so. It is technically feasible to recycle and reuse almost 100% of the materials Solar cells used in PV modules. The Si (2.7%) European WEEE Directive Ethylene-vinyl acetate Ag/PbO (0.04%) stipulates that at least 80% of (6.7%) Ag/Al/PbO (0.01%) the module mass of old Al (0.07%) modules must be processed and recycled for reuse. For economic 11.6 kg/m² reasons, however, only the 3.3 kWh/m2 (Module) glass, frame and junction box (J- Box) are recycled today. 80.9 kWh/m2 (Solar cells) Color legend: Available/harmless materials J-Box Rare/valuable materials GRP, Polyamide (1.6%) Hazardous substances Silicones (1.2%) Recycling takes place Backsheet Diodes/Cables (0.02%) PVF/Glue/PET/Glue/PVF (3.7%) Downcycling takes F place Source: Fraunhofer ISE © 2024 41 Mass fraction of substance in relation to total module mass of 11.6 kg/m² (100%) given in brackets; Date of data: 2021 ©Fraunhofer ISE public 4. Price Development  Electricity costs  Market incentives in Germany  Costs for PV systems  Price Learning Curve 42 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Electricity Prices, PV Feed-In Tariffs (FIT) and Bidding Scheme in Germany With Photovoltaic Rooftop Systems Partial Feed-In Tariff Rooftop Systems Partial Feed-In Tariff Data: BNA; energy-charts.info; Design: B. Burger - Fraunhofer ISE. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024; Date of data: 04/2024 43 ©Fraunhofer ISE public PV Market Development and Incentive Schemes in Germany Market Incentive Start End 1‘000 Roofs Program 1990 1995 Cost-covering remuneration 1993 1999 100‘000 Roofs-Program 1999 2003 EEG 2000 ongoing PV Tendering scheme 2015 ongoing The EEG 2023 law relies on a massive expansion of renewable energies with total installed PV capacity targets of 215 GW in year 2030 and 400 GW in 2040. In 2023, new PV systems totaling around 15 GW capacity have been connected to the grid. 9 GW capacity was announced for 2024. From 2026 on, the expansion target is 22 GW of new installations on an annual basis. Data: BNA. Graph: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE Energy-Charts. Date of Data: 03/2024 44 ©Fraunhofer ISE public PV Tender Scheme in Germany for Free-Standing Systems Average, quantity weighted award value  The PV tender scheme for large ground-mounted systems started in April 2015. The total capacity of this scheme amounted to 14.1 GW in Dec. 2023 with 5.2 ct€ / kWh as latest average quantity weighted award price.  PV-rooftop and special tenders are not displayed in the graph. Data: BNA. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 – Date of data: Feb-2024 45 ©Fraunhofer ISE public PV-Tender in Germany for Large Rooftop-Systems Average, quantity weighted award value  PV-Tender scheme for large rooftop systems (>750 kW) started in June 2021 and total capacity of this scheme accumulates to 1.66 GW by Feb-2024 with 8.9 ct€ / kWh as latest average quantity weighted award price.  Lowest PV-Tender Round was in June 2021 with 6.88 ct€ / kWh as average quantity weighted award price. Data: BNA. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 – Date of data: 03/2024 46 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Global Weighted Average Levelised Costs of Electricity for Large PV Systems (with 5th percentile and 95th percentile)  The global weighted average LCoE was in year 2022 for large PV systems 0.047 €/kWh (= 47 €/MWh).  The 5th percentile is a value associated with the location within the data where 5% of data is below that value. In year 2022 the 5th percentile was 0.029 €/kWh (= 29 €/MWh).  The 95th percentile is the value where 5% of the data has a larger value. In year 2022 the 95th percentile was 0.114 €/kWh (= 114 €/MWh).  The LCoE decreased by about 15% on year-to-year basis in the Data: IRENA (2023), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu last 12 years. Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2023 47 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Global Weighted Average Total Installed Costs For Large PV Systems (with 5th percentile and 95th percentile)  The global weighted average total cost for large PV systems was 833 €/kWp in year 2022.  The 5th percentile is a value associated with the location within the data where 5% of data is below that value. In year 2022 the 5th percentile was 541 €/kWp.  The 95th percentile is the value where 5% of the data has a larger value. In year 2022 the 95th percentile was 1786 €/kWp.  Total installed cost for large PV systems decreased by about 12% on year-to-year basis in the last 12 years. Data: IRENA (2023), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2023 48 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Price Development for PV Rooftop Systems in Germany (10kWp - 100kWp) Balance of System (BOS) encompasses all components of a PV system excluding the PV modules. These are the inverter, mounting system, switches, wiring and installation work, for example. BOS incl. Inverter Modules Percentage of the Total Cost Data: BSW-Solar. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 11/2023 49 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Breakdown of Utility-scale PV Total Installed Costs By Country in 2022 Breakdown of cost components (average of available country data): Data: IRENA (2023), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2023 50 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Breakdown of Total Installation Costs of Utility-Scale PV Germany 2019 to 2022 Supply bottlenecks due to the coronavirus crisis led to price turbulence in 2022. Data: IRENA (2023), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2023 51 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Price Learning Curve Includes all Commercially Available PV Technologies Learning Rate: Each time the cumulative PV module production doubled, the module price dropped about 24.4% over the past 43 years. Data: from 1980 to 2010 estimation from different sources: Strategies Unlimited, Navigant Consulting, EUPD, pvXchange; from 2011: IHS Markit; from 2022: ISE; Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 52 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Price Learning Curve Includes all Commercially Available PV Technologies Learning Rate: Each time the cumulative PV module production doubled, the module price dropped about 24.4% over the past 43 years. 53 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Further Reading Selected studies and analyses fraunhofer-ISE Energy Charts Study: Levelized Cost of Electricity - Renewable Energy Technologies Recent facts about photovoltaics in Germany Power Generation from Renewable Energy in Germany What will the Energy Transformation Cost? Pathways for Transforming the German Energy System by 2050 Sustainable PV Manufacturing in Europe – An Initiative for a 10 GW Green Fab Meta Study: Future Crosssectoral Decarbonization Target Systems in Comparison to Current Status of Technologies 54 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Abbreviations Abbreviation Explanation Abbreviation Explanation AC Alternating Current HCPV High Concentrator Photovoltaic Al-BSF Aluminum Back Surface Field HJT (also HIT) Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin-Layer BESS Battery Energy Storage Systems IBC Interdigitated Back Contact (solar cells) BIPV Building Integrated PV LCOE Levelized Cost of Energy BOS Balance of System LCPV Low Concentrator Photovoltaic CdTe Cadmium-Telluride MJ Multi Junction CI(G)S Copper Indium (Gallium)Diselenide MPP Maximum Power Point CPV Concentrating Photovoltaic n-type Negatively doped wafer (with phosphorous) c-SI Crystalline Silicon PERX Passivated emitter and rear cell CTM Cell-to-Module PR Performance Ratio Cz Czochralski Method p-type Positively doped wafer (with boron or gallium) DC Direct current PV Photovoltaic Renewable Energy Source Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz, EEG RE Renewable Energies EEG) EI The Energy Institute ROI Return on Investment EPBT Energy Payback Time SI Silicon EROI Energy Return of Invest SIC Silicon carbide FZ Floating Zone TOPCon Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact GaAs Gallium Arsenide VAT Value Added Tax GaN Gallium nitride 55 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Acknowledgements This work has been carried out with contributions from: The information provided in this Photovoltaics Report is very concise by its nature. Its principal purpose is to Name Institution provide a rough overview about the current solar PV Andreas Bett ISE market, the technologies and the environmental Bruno Burger ISE impact. Christoph Kost ISE Sebastian Nold ISE However, there are many more aspects. These and Dominik Peper ISE Simon Philipps ISE further details can be provided by Fraunhofer ISE upon Ralf Preu ISE request. Please contact us if you are interested in Christian Reichel ISE receiving a tailor-made offer. Jochen Rentsch ISE Gerhard Stryi-Hipp ISE [email protected] Tobias Reuter ISE [email protected] Harry Wirth ISE Werner Warmuth PSE Projects GmbH 56 ©Fraunhofer ISE public Thank You for Your Interest — Contact [email protected] [email protected]