Natural Disasters Introduction PDF

Module 1: Introduction McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  Natural Disaster vs Natural Hazard Natural disaster: A natural event that destroys life and/or property Great natural disaster: high fatality ra...

Module 1: Introduction McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  Natural Disaster vs Natural Hazard Natural disaster: A natural event that destroys life and/or property Great natural disaster: high fatality rate and international aid is needed to handle the rescue and recovery of the region 2004 tsunami in Indian Ocean killing > 150,000 people 2010 earthquake in Haiti killing ≈ 230,000 people Natural hazard: A natural source of danger to life, property and environment. The probability that a dangerous event will occur McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.  Natural Disasters Result of processes on and within Earth Examples of natural disasters: Earthquakes Volcanic eruptions Tsunami Floods Wildfires Tornadoes, hurricanes, typhoons Mass movements: Mud slides, avalanches, rock fall Most natural disasters occur quickly/within short time Sometimes warning signals: Small earthquakes before actual earthquake Small ash clouds/earthquakes before volcanic eruption McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.  What natural disasters or hazards are shown in the images below? 1.Type 2.Rate 3. Warnings https://geodynamics.org/cig/events/calendar/2019-multi-hazard/ McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  What natural disasters or hazards are shown in the images below? 1.Type 2.Rate 3. Warnings https://geodynamics.org/cig/events/calendar/2019-multi-hazard/ McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  What natural disasters or hazards are shown in the images below? 1.Type 2.Rate 3. Warnings https://geodynamics.org/cig/events/calendar/2019-multi-hazard/ McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  Natural Disasters in 2021 432 disasters killing 10,492 people 2010 CRED. 2021 Disasters in numbers. Brussels: CRED; 2022. Haitian earthquake: 222,570 killed Russian heat wave: 55,736 people killed https://disasterscharter.org/web/guest/home;jsessionid=86B33EE8C5B577F3BE4A47AAE7F5 CRED. 2021 Disasters in numbers. Brussels: CRED; 2022. McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner 282C.APP1 ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.  Natural Disasters 1996-2015 High fatalities often in countries with: Limited infrastructure Large population Limited building regulations Within areas of increased risk to natural hazards https://ewn.co.za/2016/10/14/natural-disasters-worldwide-from-1996-2015 McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.  Human Fatalities in Natural Disasters Most frequent mega-killers 1970-2019: Earthquakes and hurricanes 30 out of 40 worst natural disasters in densely populated belt through Asia, along Indian Ocean Historically: Floods and droughts with highest fatalities Number of fatalities proportional to density of population higher population = higher fatalities Death totals are often related to economic and political factors Countries with low growth domestic product (GDP): developing countries Countries with low democracy index: autocratic governments, dictatorships McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2022/02/Deaths-from-disasters-bubbles-1-1536x1485.png McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  Human Fatalities in Natural Disasters Decreasing fatalities by understanding and getting prepared for natural disasters: https://www.getprepared.gc.ca/index-en.aspx https://www.getprepared.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/yprprdnssgd/yprprdnssgd-eng.pdf McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  Economic Losses from Natural Disasters Destruction and damage to structures, loss of productivity and wages 2021: 0.26% loss in global GDP CRED. 2021 Disasters in numbers. Brussels: CRED; 2022. McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.  Economic Losses from Natural Disasters Increase in economic loss over time is result of increase in human population and urbanization Variations in losses over time due to variations in number and location of natural disasters and technological advancements Highest insurance losses: U.S., Europe and Japan McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.  Natural Disasters in the News Ritchie & Roser (2014, 2019) https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  Natural Disasters in the News Ritchie & Roser (2014, 2019) https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  Natural Disasters in the News Ritchie & Roser (2014, 2019) https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  Natural Disasters in the News Networks selective in coverage of natural disasters Attention not reflecting the severity and number of people killed or affected by a natural disaster Coverage in US TV: for every person killed by volcano nearly 40,000 have to die of food shortage Natural disasters covered by US networks: Mostly: Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions Least: Cold/heat wave Location of natural disaster influencing coverage Europe and Americas covered more frequently than Asia, Africa and Pacific McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.  Question 1 Based on data for the period from 1970 to 2019, __________ experienced the greatest loss of life from natural disasters. a) North America b) South America c) Europe d) Asia e) Africa McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  Natural Hazards Natural hazard: A natural source of danger to life, property and environment. The probability that a dangerous event will occur Hazard exists even where disasters are infrequent Flood hazard: Coastal regions with high population Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions: Countries along the “Ring of Fire” Minimizing risks that natural hazards occur: Evaluating site risks: mitigation Increasing research Warning systems in area with high natural hazard potential McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.  Natural Hazards Mitigation: Actions taken by humans to minimize possible effects of a natural hazard Mitigation prior to event: Engineering, physical, social, and political plans and actions to reduce death and destruction from natural hazards Mitigation after event: Rebuilding and re-inhabiting same site Case history: Popocatepetl Volcano, Mexico o Eruptions in 822, 1519 and beginning again in 1994 o Currently 100,000 people living at base with > 1 million in 40km radius o Reason for dense population despite hazard: Fertile soil McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.  Popocatepetl (”smoking mountain”) Puebla, Mexico ~45 km https://cdn-5fc8b814c1ac1a221c181e9b.closte.com/assets/ref_puebla3.jpg https://volcano.si.edu/images/bulletin/341090/3709pop2.jpg Mexico City ~ 70 km to NW McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©imageBROKER/Alamy Stock Photo  Natural Hazards and Probability Estimates Inverse correlation between frequency (how often it occurs) and magnitude (how big it is/how much energy is released) of a process Frequent occurrences are low in magnitude, rare occurrences are high in magnitude Small-scale activity is common, big events are rare Larger the event, longer the return period (recurrence interval) Majority of earthquakes with low magnitude but frequent occurrence McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.  Frequency and Magnitude of Earthquakes https://jazinator.blogspot.com/2014/02/a-magnitude-220-earthquake-star-wars.html McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©imageBROKER/Alamy Stock Photo Probability Estimates for 10- and 1,000-Death Natural Disasters in the United States Likeliness of a 10-Fatality Event – low magnitude Relatively high frequency and shorter recurrence (return) interval During 1 During 10 During 20 Return Time (in Year Years Years years) Earthquake 11% 67% 89% 9 Hurricane 39 99 >99 2 Flood 86 >99 >99 0.5 Tornado 96 >99 >99 0.3 Likeliness of a 1,000-Fatality Event – high magnitude Relatively low frequency and longer recurrence (return) interval During 1 During 10 During 20 Return Time (in Year Years Years years) Earthquake 1% 14% 26% 67 Hurricane 6 46 71 16 Flood 0.4 4 8 250 Tornado 0.6 6 11 167 Source: US Geological Survey Fact Sheet (unnumbered). McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  Overview of Human Population Human species ‘began’ approximately 200,000 years ago, with a few thousand people? Human population: 8.2 billion in September 2024 https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2022/03/Annual-World-Population-since-10-thousand-BCE- McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner 1536x1080.png World Population Growth: Exponential Growth is exponential –negligible to overwhelming McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner Impact of World’s Population over Time McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  World Population Growth Decreasing time intervals to increase population by 1 billion McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner US Census Bureau.  The Last 10,000 Years of Human History Until 8,000 years ago: flat population growth curve But then: Agriculture established Domestication of animals Growth rate increased to 0.036%/year By 2,000 years ago: almost 200 million people – slightly more than Bangladesh Better shelter, food, water supplies → faster population growth Growth rate of 0.056%/year By 1750 (before Industrial Revolution): about 800 million people – similar to the combined population of US, Brazil and Nigeria McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner The Last 2,000 Years of Human History By 1750, population approximately 800 million people Public health principles, causes of disease recognized Birth rates remained high Death rates, particularly infant mortality, dropped Year in which population grew to: 1810: approximately 1 billion 1925: approximately 2 billion 1960: approximately 3 billion 1974: approximately 4 billion 1987: approximately 5 billion 1999: approximately 6 billion 2011: approximately 7 billion 2022: approximately 8 billion Decrease of time interval to grow population by 1 billion from 1810 to 2022 McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  The Human Population Today Present population: ca. 8.2 billion people Growth rate = 0.9%/year Doubling time = ~77 years Growth rate = fertility (birth) rate – mortality (death) rate* Human population grows by about 72 million people per year (roughly the population of Thailand) *migration McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  Future World Population Demographic transition theory: mortality and fertility rates decline economic and social development improves Growth rates 1968: 2.1% → 2022: 0.9% urbanization increased opportunities for women McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.  Future World Population Increase in population increases: Demand on natural resources: Wood Energy (e.g., oil/gas) Earth materials (e.g., metals) Water Fostering conditions prone to natural disasters: climate change, wildfires, floods Making environments more vulnerable to natural disasters: Coast lines McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  Future World Population Constant growth rates or even declining in dominantly “developed” areas High growth rates in dominantly “developing” areas 2024 2024 McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner US Census Bureau.  Future World Population Dropping growth rates due to urbanization, birth control and opportunities of woman McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner US Census Bureau.  Demographic Transition Demographic transition: Model based on population experience of economically wealthy countries in last few centuries Before transition: high death rates offset by high birth rates = maintain population During transition: lower death rates and relatively high birth rates = increase in population After transition: low death rates and low birth rates = stabilize population Different rates in different countries: current population growth is concentrated in the poorest areas McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.  Demographic Transition Less Developed More Developed Countries countries McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner Data from Population Reference Bureau.  Urbanization and Earthquake Fatalities In the past, earthquakes resulted in about 1 million fatalities per century Increasing the world population from 1.5 billion to 7.5 billion increased the risk of a one million casualty earthquake five times Most population growth is concentrated in the cities of developing countries Poorly constructed buildings in mega-cities Million-death earthquakes are more likely McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner ©McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.  Level of Global Natural Hazard Risks Densely populated countries have higher risk of Natural Disasters resulting in higher fatalities exposure Based on the United Nations University World Risk Index 2021 susceptibility coping capacities https://www.childfund.org/Content/NewsDetail/2147489272/ McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner adaptive capacities  Question 2 The growth rate of the world population equals __________. a) the birthrate plus the death rate b) the birthrate minus the death rate c) the death rate minus the birthrate d) None of these choices are correct. McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner  Question 3 In a demographic transition, a population goes from __________. a) using one form of government to another b) a low birthrate to a high birthrate c) high death rates and high birthrates to low death rates and low birthrates d) low death rates and high birthrates to high death rates and low birthrates e) a low death rate to a high death rate McGraw Hill Education / Stefanie Brueckner