Managerial Economics MBA PDF

MBA - I Semester Paper Code: MBAC 1002 Managerial Economics Objectives ՖՖ To introduce the economic concepts ՖՖ To familiarize with the students the importance of economic approaches in managerial decision making To understand the applications of economic theories in business decisions Unit – I General Foundations of Managerial Economics - Economic Approach - Circular Flow of Activity - Nature of the Firm - Objectives of Firms - Demand Analysis and Estimation - Individual, Market and Firm demand - Determinants of demand - Elasticity measures and Business Decision Making - Demand Forecasting. Unit-II Law of Variable Proportions - Theory of the Firm - Production Functions in the Short and Long Run - Cost Functions – Determinants of Costs – Cost Forecasting - Short Run and Long Run Costs –Type of Costs - Analysis of Risk and Uncertainty. Unit-III Product Markets -Determination Under Different Markets - Market Structure – Perfect Competition – Monopoly – Monopolistic Competition – Duopoly - Oligopoly - Pricing and Employment of Inputs Under Different Market Structures – Price Discrimination - Degrees of Price Discrimination. Unit-IV Introduction to National Income – National Income Concepts - Models of National Income Determination - Economic Indicators - Technology and Employment - Issues and Challenges – Business Cycles – Phases – Management of Cyclical Fluctuations - Fiscal and Monetary Policies. Unit – V Macro Economic Environment - Economic Transition in India - A quick Review - Liberalization, Privatization and Globalization - Business and Government - Public-Private Participation (PPP) - Industrial Finance - Foreign Direct Investment(FDIs). 1 References 1. Yogesh Maheswari, Managerial Economics, Phi Learning, Newdelhi, 2005 Gupta G.S., 2. Managerial Economics, Tata Mcgraw-Hill, New Delhi Moyer &Harris, 3. Anagerial Economics, Cengage Learning, Newdelhi, 2005 Geetika, Ghosh & Choudhury, , 4. Managerial Economics, Tata Mcgrawhill, Newdelhi, 2011 ***** 2 UNIT – I Lesson I The Fundamentals Of Managerial Economics Reading Objective: At the end of the reading this chapter, the reader will be able to understand that economics is the study of mankind’s attempt to satisfy their unlimited wants with the help of limited resources. Economics maybe divided in to 1) Micro Economics and 2) Macro Economics 3) Monitory Economics and 4) Fiscal Economics. Micro economics deals with the basic principles of economics like law of demand, law of supply, consumption, production etc,. Managerial economics deals with the principles of micro economics as applied to managerial decision making. The reader may also be able understand the circle flow of economic activity. The circle flow is a chain in which production creates income, income leads to spending and spending in turn leads to production activity. Lesson Outline: ՖՖ Why study Economics? ՖՖ Managerial Economics ՖՖ Nature of Managerial Economics ՖՖ Circular flow of economic activity ՖՖ Objectives of the firm ՖՖ Review questions 3 Introduction People have limited number of needs which must be satisfied if they are to survive as human beings. Some are material needs, some are psychological needs and some others are emotional needs. People’s needs are limited; however, no one would choose to live at the level of basic human needs if they want to enjoy a better standard of living. This is because human wants (desire for the consumption of goods and services) are unlimited. It doesn’t matter whether a person belongs to the middle class in India or is the richest individual in the World, he or she wants always something more. For example bigger a house, more friends, more salary etc., Therefore the basic economic problem is that the resources are limited but wants are unlimited which forces us to make choices. Economics is the study of this allocation of resources, the choices that are made by economic agents. An economy is a system which attempts to solve this basic economic problem. There are different types of economies; household economy, local economy, national economy and international economy but all economies face the same problem. The major economic problems are (i) what to produce? (ii) How to produce? (iii) When to produce and (iv) For whom to produce? Economics is the study of how individuals and societies choose to use the scarce resources that nature and the previous generation have provided. The world’s resources are limited and scarce. The resources which are not scarce are called free goods. Resources which are scarce are called economic goods. Why Study Economics? A good grasp of economics is vital for managerial decision making, for designing and understanding public policy, and to appreciate how an economy functions. The students need to know how economics can help us to understand what goes on in the world and how it can be used as a practical tool for decision making. Managers and CEO’s of large corporate bodies, managers of small companies, nonprofit organizations, service centers etc., cannot succeed in business without a clear understanding of how market forces create both opportunities and constraints for business enterprises. 4 Reasons For Studying Economics: ՖՖ It is a study of society and as such is extremely important. ՖՖ It trains the mind and enables one to think systematically about the problems of business and wealth. ՖՖ From a study of the subject it is possible to predict economic trends with some precision. ՖՖ It helps one to choose from various economic alternatives. Economics is the science of making decisions in the presence of scarce resources. Resources are simply anything used to produce a good or service to achieve a goal. Economic decisions involve the allocation of scarce resources so as to best meet the managerial goal. The nature of managerial decision varies depending on the goals of the manager. A Manager is a person who directs resources to achieve a stated goal and he/she has the responsibility for his/her own actions as well as for the actions of individuals, machines and other inputs under the manager’s control. Managerial economics is the study of how scarce resources are directed most efficiently to achieve managerial goals. It is a valuable tool for analyzing business situations to take better decisions. Prof. Evan J Douglas defines Managerial Economics as “Managerial Economics is concerned with the application of economic principles and methodologies to the decision making process within the firm or organization under the conditions of uncertainty” According to Milton H Spencer and Louis Siegelman “Managerial Economics is the integration of economic theory with business practices for the purpose of facilitating decision making and forward planning by management” According to Mc Nair and Miriam, ‘Managerial Economics consists of the use of economic modes of thoughts to analyze business situations’. Economics can be divided into two broad categories: micro economics and macro economics. Macro economics is the study of the 5 economic system as a whole. It is related to issues such as determination of national income, savings, investment, employment at aggregate levels, tax collection, government expenditure, foreign trade, money supply etc., Micro economics focuses on the behavior of the individuals, firms and their interaction in markets. Managerial economics is an application of the principles of micro and macro economics in managerial decision making. The economic way of thinking about business decision making provides all managers with a powerful set of tools and insights for furthering the goals of their organization. Successful managers take good decisions, and one of their most useful tools is the methodology of managerial economics. Nature Of Managerial Economics: 1. Managerial economics is concerned with the analysis of finding optimal solutions to decision making problems of businesses/ firms (micro economic in nature). 2. Managerial economics is a practical subject therefore it is pragmatic. 3. Managerial economics describes, what is the observed economic phenomenon (positive economics) and prescribes what ought to be (normative economics) 4. Managerial economics is based on strong economic concepts. (conceptual in nature) 5. Managerial economics analyses the problems of the firms in the perspective of the economy as a whole ( macro in nature) 6. It helps to find optimal solution to the business problems (problem solving) Managerial Economics And Other Disciplines Managerial economics has its relationship with other disciplines for propounding its theories and concepts for managerial decision making. Essentially it is a branch of economics. Managerial economics is closely related to certain subjects like statistics, mathematics, accounting and operations research. 6 Managerial economics helps in estimating the product demand, planning of production schedule, deciding the input combinations, estimation of cost of production, achieving economies of scale and increasing the returns to scale. It also includes determining price of the product, analyzing market structure to determine the price of the product for profit maximization, which helps them to control and plan capital in an effective manner. Successful mangers make good decisions, and one of their most useful tools is the methodology of managerial economics. Warren E Buffett, the renowned chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., invested $100 and went on to accumulate a personal net worth of $30 billion. Buffett credits his success to a basic understanding of managerial economics. Buffett’s success is a powerful testimony to the practical usefulness of managerial economics. Managerial economics has a very important role to play by helping managements in successful decision making and forward planning. To discharge his role successfully, a manager must recognize his responsibilities and obligations. There is a growing realization that the managers contribute significantly to the profitable growth of the firms. We can conclude that managerial economics consists of applying economic principles and concepts towards adjusting with various uncertainties faced by a business firm. Circular Flow Of Economic Activity The individuals own or control resources which are necessary inputs for the firms in the production process. These resources (factors of production) are classified into four types. Land: It includes all natural resources on the earth and below the earth. Non renewable resources such as oil, coal etc once used will never be replaced. It will not be available for our children. Renewable resources can be used and replaced and is not depleted with use. Labour: is the work force of an economy. The value of the worker is called as human capital. 7 Capital: It is classified as working capital and fixed capital (not transformed into final products) Entrepreneurship: It refers to the individuals who organize production and take risks. All these resources are allocated in an effective manner to achieve the objectives of consumers (to maximize satisfaction), workers (to maximize wages), firms (to maximize the output and profit) and government (to maximize the welfare of the society). The fundamental economic activities between households and firms are shown in the diagram. The circular flows of economic activities are explained in a clockwise and counterclockwise flow of goods and services. The four sectors namely households, business, government and the rest of the world can also be considered to see the flow of economic activities. The circular flow of activity is a chain in which production creates income, income generates spending and spending in turn induces production. The major four sectors of the economy are engaged in three economic activities of production, consumption and exchange of goods and services. These sectors are as follows: Households: Households fulfill their needs and wants through purchase of goods and services from the firms. They are owners and suppliers of factors of production and in turn they receive income in the form of rent, wages and interest. Firms: Firms employ the input factors to produce various goods and services and make payments to the households. Government: The government purchases goods and services from firms and also factors of production from households by making payments. Foreign sector: Households, firms and government of India purchase goods and services (import) from abroad and make payments. On the other hand all these sectors sell goods and services to various countries (export) and in turn receive payments from abroad 8 Chart - 1 Circular Flow Of Economic Activity The above said four agents take economic decisions to produce goods and services and to exchange them and to consume them for satisfying the wants of the economy as a whole. Understanding the opportunities and constraints in the exchange is essential to take better decision in business. This is discussed in the forthcoming chapters in detail. The economy comprises of the interaction of households, firms, government and other nations. Households own resources and supply factor services like land, raw material, labour and capital to the firms which helps them to produce goods and services. In turn, firms pay rent for land, wages for their labour and interest against the capital invested by the households. The earnings of the household are used to purchase goods and services from the firms to fulfill their needs and wants, the remaining is saved and it goes to the capital market and is converted as investments in various businesses. The household and business firms have to pay taxes to the government for enjoying the services provided. On the other hand firms and households purchase goods and services (import) from various countries of the world. Firms tend to sell their products to 9 the foreign customers (export) who earn income for the firm and foreign exchange for the country. Therefore, it is clear that households supply input factors, which flow to firms. Goods and services produced by firms flow to households. Payment flows in the opposite direction (refer chart 1) Nature Of The Firm A firm is an association of individuals who have organized themselves for the purpose of turning inputs into output. The firm organizes the factors of production to produce goods and services to fulfill the needs of the households. Each firm lays down its own objectives which is fundamental to the existence of a firm. The major objectives of the firm are: ՖՖ To achieve the Organizational Goal ՖՖ To maximize the Output ՖՖ To maximize the Sales ՖՖ To maximize the Profit of the Organization ՖՖ To maximize the Customer and Stakeholders Satisfaction ՖՖ To maximize Shareholder’s Return on Investment ՖՖ To maximize the Growth of the Organization Firms are established to earn profit, to keep the shareholders happy. To increase their market share, they try to maximize their sales. In the present business world firms try to produce goods and services without harming the environment. Firms are not always able to operate at a profit. They may be facing the operating loss also. Economists believe that firms maximize their long run rather than their short run profit. So managers have to make enough profit to satisfy the demands of their shareholders and to maximize their wealth through the company. 10 Review Questions 1. Distinguish between micro economics, macro economics and managerial economics. 2. What is managerial economics? Why does study managerial economics? 3. Describe the circular flow of economic activity of India. 4. Discuss the nature of the firm. 5. List out the major objectives of the firm. 6. How does managerial economics relate with other disciplines for propounding its theories? 7. Identify the areas of decision making where managerial economics prescribes specific solutions to business problems. 8. Discuss the role and responsibilities of a managerial economist. ***** 11 12 Lesson II Demand Analysis Reading Objective: At the end of reading this chapter the reader will understand that demand analysis is an important part of economic analysis. The manufacturers produce and supply goods to meet demand. When the demand and supply is equal the economic conditions of the country is in equilibrium position. This demand and supply are market forces which gives dynamism to the economic conditions of the country. The demand is not always static. The changes in demand or elasticity of demand gives room for the managerial decision making like what to produce, how much to produce, when to produce, and where to distribute the products. Lesson Outline: ՖՖ Law of demand ՖՖ Determinants of demand ՖՖ Types of demand ՖՖ Exceptional demand curve ՖՖ Elasticity of demand ՖՖ Price elasticity ՖՖ Income elasticity ՖՖ Cross elasticity ՖՖ Demand forecasting ՖՖ Review questions 13 Introduction: The concepts of demand and supply are useful for explaining what is happening in the market place. Every market transaction involves an exchange and many exchanges are undertaken in a single day. The circular flow of economic activity explains clearly that every day there are a number of exchanges taking place among the four major sectors mentioned earlier. A market is a place where we buy and sell goods and services. A buyer demands goods and services from the market and the sellers supply the goods in the market. In economics, demand is “the quantity of goods and services that will be bought for a given price over a period of time”. For example if 10 Lakhs laptops are purchased in India during a year at an average price of Rs.25000/- then we can say that the annual demand for laptops is 10 Lakhs units at the rate of 25,000/-. This chapter describes demand and supply which is the driving force behind a market economy. This is one of the most important managerial factors because it assists the managers in predicting changes in production and input prices. The manager can take better decisions regarding the kind of product to be produced, the quantity, the cost of the product and its selling price. Let us understand the concept of demand and its importance in decision making. Demand: Demand means the ability and willingness to buy a specific quantity of a commodity at the prevailing price in a given period of time. Therefore, demand for a commodity implies the desire to acquire it, willingness and the ability to pay for it. Law of demand: The quantity of a commodity demanded in a given time period increases as its price falls, ceteris paribus. (I.e. other things remaining constant) Demand schedule: a table showing the quantities of a good that a consumer is willing and able to buy at the prevailing price in a given time period. (Table – 1) 14 Table – 1: The Demand Schedule For Coke Price of Coke (200 ml) In Rupees Quantity Demanded 50 1 45 2 40 3 35 5 30 7 25 9 20 12 15 15 10 20 Demand Curve: A curve indicating the total quantity of a product that all consumers are willing and able to purchase at the prevailing price level, holding the prices of related goods, income and other variables as constant. A demand curve is a graphical representation of a demand schedule. The price is quoted in the ‘Y’ axis and the quantity demanded over time at different price levels is quoted in ‘X’ axis. Each point on the curve refers to a specific quantity that will be demanded at a given price. If for example the price of a 200 ml coke is Rs. 10, this curve tells us that the consumer (the students in a class of 50) would purchase 20 units. When the price rises to Rs. 50 there was only one student would buy it. The demand curve, (DD) is downward sloping curve from left to right showing that as price falls, quantity demanded rises. This inverse relationship between price and quantity is called as the law of demand. When price changes, there is said to be a movement along the curve from point A to B. Graph – Demand Curve 15 Shifts in Demand: Shift of the demand curve occurs when the determinants of demand change. When tastes and preferences and incomes are altered, the basic relationship between price and quantity demanded changes (shifts). This shifts the entire demand curve upward (rightward) and is called as increase in demand because more of that commodity is demanded at that price. The downward shift (leftward) is called as decrease in demand. The new demand curves D1D1 and D0D0 can be seen in the Graph below. Graph – Shift In Demand Curve Therefore we understand that a shift in a demand curve may happen due to the changes in the variables other than price. The movement along a demand curve takes place (extension or contraction) due to price rise or fall. 16 Extension And Contraction Of Demand Curve: When with a fall in price, more of a commodity is bought , then there is an extension of the demand curve. When lesser quantity is demanded with a rise in price, there is a contraction of demand. Graph –Extension And Contraction In Demand Curve From the above graph we can understand that an increase in prices result in the contraction of demand. If the price increases from P2 to P then the demand for the commodity fall from OQ2 to OQ. Therefore the demand curve DD contracts from ‘b’ to ‘a’ on the other hand when there is a fall in price, it results in the extension of demand. Let us assume that the price falls from P2 to P1 then the quantity demanded OQ2 increases to OQ1 and the demand curve extends from point ‘b’ to ‘c’ Demand function is a function that describe how much of a commodity will be purchased at the prevailing prices of that commodity and related commodities, alternative income levels, and alternative values of other variables affecting demand. Price is not the only factor which determines the level of demand for a good. Other important factor is income. The rise in income will lead to an increase in demand for a normal commodity. A few goods are named as inferior goods for which the demand will fall, when income rises. Another important factor which influences the demand for a good is the price of other goods. Other factors which affect the demand for a good apart from the above mentioned factors are: 17 Changes in Population Changes in Fashion Changes in Taste Changes in Advertising A change in demand occurs when one or more of the determinants of demand change and it is expressed in the following equation. Qd X = f (Px, Pr, Y, T, Ey, Ep, Adv….) Where, Qd X = quantity demanded of good ‘X’ Px = the price of good X Pr = the price of a related good Y = income level of the consumer T = taste and preference of the consumers Ey = expected income Ep = expected price Adv = advertisement cost The above mentioned demand function expresses the relationship between the demand and other factors. The quantity demanded of commodity X varies according to the price of commodity (Px), income (Y), the price of a related commodity (Pr), taste and preference of the consumers (T), expected income (Ey) and advertisement cost(Adv) spent by the organization. Determinants Of Demand: There are various factors affecting the demand for a commodity. They are: 1.Price of the good: The price of a commodity is an important determinant of demand. Price and demand are inversely related. Higher the price less is the demand and vice versa. 2.Price of related goods: The price of related goods like substitutes and complementary goods also affect the demand. In the case of substitutes, rise in price of one commodity lead to increase in demand for its substitute. 18 In the case of complementary goods, fall in the price of one commodity lead to rise in demand for both the goods. 3.Consumer’s Income: This is directly related to demand. A change in the income of the consumer significantly influences his demand for most commodities. If the disposable income increases, demand will be more. 4.Taste, preference, fashions and habits: These are very effective factors affecting demand for a commodity. When there is a change in taste, habits or preferences of the consumer, his demand will change. Fashions and customs in society determine many of our demands. 5.Population: If the size of the population is more, demand for goods will be more. The market demand for a commodity substantially changes when there is change in the total population. 6.Money Circulation: More the money in circulation, higher the demand and vice versa. 7.Value of money: The value of money determines the demand for a commodity in the market. When there is a rise or fall in the value of money there may be changes in the relative prices of different goods and their demand. 8.Weather Condition: Weather is also an important factor that determines the demand for certain goods. 9.Advertisement and Salesmanship: If the advertisement is very attractive for a commodity, demand will be more. Similarly if the salesmanship and publicity is effective then the demand for the commodity will be more. 10.Consumer’s future price expectation: If the consumers expect that there will be a rise in prices in future, he may buy more at the present price and so his demand increases. 11.Government policy (taxation): High taxes will increase the price and reduce demand, while low taxes will reduce the price and extend the demand. 19 12.Credit facilities: Depending on the availability of credit facilities the demand for commodities will change. More the facilities higher the demand. 13.Multiplicity of uses of goods: if the commodity has multiple uses then the demand will be more than if the commodity is used for a single purpose. Demand Distinctions: Types Of Demand Demand may be defined as the quantity of goods or services desired by an individual, backed by the ability and willingness to pay. Types Of Demand: 1.Direct and indirect demand: (or) Producers’ goods and consumers’ goods: demand for goods that are directly used for consumption by the ultimate consumer is known as direct demand (example: Demand for T shirts). On the other hand demand for goods that are used by producers for producing goods and services. (example: Demand for cotton by a textile mill) 2.Derived demand and autonomous demand: when a produce derives its usage from the use of some primary product it is known as derived demand. (example: demand for tyres derived from demand for car) Autonomous demand is the demand for a product that can be independently used. (example: demand for a washing machine) 3.Durable and non durable goods demand: durable goods are those that can be used more than once, over a period of time (example: Microwave oven) Non durable goods can be used only once (example: Band-aid) 4.Firm and industry demand: firm demand is the demand for the product of a particular firm. (example: Dove soap) The demand for the product of a particular industry is industry demand (example: demand for steel in India ) 5.Total market and market segment demand: a particular segment of the markets demand is called as segment demand (example: demand for 20 laptops by engineering students) the sum total of the demand for laptops by various segments in India is the total market demand. (example: demand for laptops in India) 6.Short run and long run demand: short run demand refers to demand with its immediate reaction to price changes and income fluctuations. Long run demand is that which will ultimately exist as a result of the changes in pricing, promotion or product improvement after market adjustment with sufficient time. 7.Joint demand and Composite demand: when two goods are demanded in conjunction with one another at the same time to satisfy a single want, it is called as joint or complementary demand. (example: demand for petrol and two wheelers) A composite demand is one in which a good is wanted for several different uses. ( example: demand for iron rods for various purposes) 8.Price demand, income demand and cross demand: demand for commodities by the consumers at alternative prices are called as price demand. Quantity demanded by the consumers at alternative levels of income is income demand. Cross demand refers to the quantity demanded of commodity ‘X’ at a price of a related commodity ‘Y’ which may be a substitute or complementary to X. Price Demand: The ability and willingness to buy specific quantities of a good at the prevailing price in a given time period. Income Demand: The ability and willingness to buy a commodity at the available income in a given period of time. Market Demand: The total quantity of a good or service that people are willing and able to buy at prevailing prices in a given time period. It is the sum of individual demands. Cross Demand: The ability and willingness to buy a commodity or service at the prevailing price of the related commodity i.e. substitutes or complementary products. For example, people buy more of wheat when the price of rice increases. 21 Exceptional demand curve: The demand curve slopes from left to right upward if despite the increase in price of the commodity, people tend to buy more due to reasons like fear of shortages or it may be an absolutely essential good. The law of demand does not apply in every case and situation. The circumstances when the law of demand becomes ineffective are known as exceptions of the law. Some of these important exceptions are as under. 1. Giffen Goods: Some special varieties of inferior goods are termed as Giffen goods. Cheaper varieties millets like bajra, cheaper vegetables like potato etc come under this category. Sir Robert Giffen of Ireland first observed that people used to spend more of their income on inferior goods like potato and less of their income on meat. After purchasing potato the staple food, they did not have staple food potato surplus to buy meat. So the rise in price of potato compelled people to buy more potato and thus raised the demand for potato. This is against the law of demand. This is also known as Giffen paradox. 2. Conspicuous Consumption / Veblen Effect: This exception to the law of demand is associated with the doctrine propounded by Thorsten Veblen. A few goods like diamonds etc are purchased by the rich and wealthy sections of society. The prices of these goods are so high that they are beyond the reach of the common man. The higher the price of the diamond, the higher its prestige value. So when price of these goods falls, the consumers think that the prestige value of these goods comes down. So quantity demanded of these goods falls with fall in their price. So the law of demand does not hold good here. 3. Conspicuous Necessities: Certain things become the necessities of modern life. So we have to purchase them despite their high price. The demand for T.V. sets, automobiles and refrigerators etc. has not gone down in spite of the increase in their price. These things have become the symbol of status. So they are purchased despite their rising price. 22 4. Ignorance: A consumer’s ignorance is another factor that at times induces him to purchase more of the commodity at a higher price. This is especially true, when the consumer believes that a high-priced and branded commodity is better in quality than a low-priced one. 5. Emergencies: During emergencies like war, famine etc, households behave in an abnormal way. Households accentuate scarcities and induce further price rise by making increased purchases even at higher prices because of the apprehension that they may not be available.. On the other hand during depression, , fall in prices is not a sufficient condition for consumers to demand more if they are needed. 6. Future Changes In Prices: Households also act as speculators. When the prices are rising households tend to purchase large quantities of the commodity out of the apprehension that prices may still go up. When prices are expected to fall further, they wait to buy goods in future at still lower prices. So quantity demanded falls when prices are falling. 7. Change In Fashion: A change in fashion and tastes affects the market for a commodity. When a digital camera replaces a normal manual camera, no amount of reduction in the price of the latter is sufficient to clear the stocks. Digital cameras on the other hand, will have more customers even though its price may be going up. The law of demand becomes ineffective. 8. Demonstration Effect: It refers to a tendency of low income groups to imitate the consumption pattern of high income groups. They will buy a commodity to imitate the consumption of their neighbors even if they do not have the purchasing power. 23 9. Snob Effect: Some buyers have a desire to own unusual or unique products to show that they are different from others. In this situation even when the price rises the demand for the commodity will be more. 10. Speculative Goods/ Outdated Goods/ Seasonal Goods: Speculative goods such as shares do not follow the law of demand. Whenever the prices rise, the traders expect the prices to rise further so they buy more. Goods that go out of use due to advancement in the underlying technology are called outdated goods. The demand for such goods does not rise even with fall in prices 11. Seasonal Goods: Goods which are not used during the off-season (seasonal goods) will also be subject to similar demand behaviour. 12. Goods In Short Supply: Goods that are available in limited quantity or whose future availability is uncertain also violate the law of demand. Elasticity Of Demand In economics, the term elasticity means a proportionate (percentage) change in one variable relative to a proportionate (percentage) change in another variable. The quantity demanded of a good is affected by changes in the price of the good, changes in price of other goods, changes in income and changes in other factors. Elasticity is a measure of just how much of the quantity demanded will be affected due to a change in price or income. Elasticity of Demand is a technical term used by economists to describe the degree of responsiveness of the demand for a commodity due to a fall in its price. A fall in price leads to an increase in quantity demanded and vice versa. 24 The elasticity of demand may be as follows: ՖՖ Price Elasticity ՖՖ Income Elasticity and ՖՖ Cross Elasticity Price Elasticity The response of the consumers to a change in the price of a commodity is measured by the price elasticity of the commodity demand. The responsiveness of changes in quantity demanded due to changes in price is referred to as price elasticity of demand. The price elasticity of demand is measured by dividing the percentage change in quantity demanded by the percentage change in price. Price Elasticity = Proportionate change in the Quantity Demanded / Proportionate change in price Percentage change in quantity demanded = ---------------------------------------------- Percentage change in price ΔQ / Q 10 = --------- = ------ = 0.5 ΔP / P 20 ΔQ = change in quantity demanded ΔP = change in price P = price Q = quantity demanded For example: Quantity demanded is 20 units at a price of Rs.500. When there is a fall in price to Rs. 400 it results in a rise in demand to 32 units. Therefore the change in quantity demanded is12 units resulting from the change in price of Rs.100. The Price Elasticity of Demand is = 500 / 20 x 12/100 = 3 25 The Determinants Of Price Elasticity Of Demand The exact value of price elasticity for a commodity is determined by a wide variety of factors. The two factors considered by economists are the availability of substitutes and time. The better the substitutes for a product, the higher the price elasticity of demand.. The longer the period of time, the more the price elasticity of demand for that product. The price elasticity of necessary goods will have lower elasticity than luxuries. The elasticity of demand depends on the following factors: 1. Nature of the commodity: The demand for necessities is inelastic because the demand does not change much with a change in price. But the demand for luxuries is elastic in nature. 2. Extent of use: A commodity having a variety of uses has a comparatively elastic demand. 3. Range of substitutes: The commodity which has more number of substitutes has relatively elastic demand. A commodity with fewer substitutes has relatively inelastic demand. 4. Income level: People with high incomes are less affected by price changes than people with low incomes. 5. Proportion of income spent on the commodity: When a small part of income is spent on the commodity, the price change does not affect the demand therefore the demand is inelastic in nature. 6. Urgency of demand / postponement of purchase: The demand for certain commodities are highly inelastic because you cannot postpone its purchase. For example medicines for any sickness should be purchased and consumed immediately. 7. Durability of a commodity: If the commodity is durable then it is used it for a long period. Therefore elasticity of demand is high. Price changes highly influences the demand for durables in the market. 8. Purchase frequency of a product/ recurrence of demand: The demand for frequently purchased goods are highly elastic than rarely purchased goods. 9. Time: In the short run demand will be less elastic but in the long run the demand for commodities are more elastic. 26 The following are the possible combination of changes in Price and Quantity demanded. The slope of each combination is depicted in the following graphs. 1.Relatively Elastic Demand (Ed >1) a small percentage change in price leading to a larger change in Quantity demanded. 2.Perfectly Elastic Demand (Ed = ∞) a small change in price will change the quantity demanded by an infinite amount. 3.Relatively Inelastic Demand (Ed < 1) a change in price leads to a smaller percentage change in quantity demanded. 27 4.Perfectly Inelastic Demand (Ed = 0) the quantity demanded does not change regardless of the percentage change in price. 5.Unit Elasticity of Demand (Ed =1) the percentage change in quantity demanded is the same as the percentage change in price that caused it. Income Elasticity Income elasticity of demand measures the responsiveness of quantity demanded to a change in income. It is measured by dividing the percentage change in quantity demanded by the percentage change in income. If the demand for a commodity increases by 20% when income increases by 10% then the income elasticity of that commodity is said to be positive and relatively high. If the demand for food were unchanged when income increases, the income elasticity would be zero. A fall in demand for a commodity when income rises results in a negative income elasticity of demand. 28 The following are the various types of income elasticity: Zero Income Elasticity: The increase in income of the individual does not make any difference in the demand for that commodity. ( Ei = 0) Negative Income Elasticity: The increase in the income of consumers leads to less purchase of those goods. ( Ei < 0). Unitary Income Elasticity: The change in income leads to the same percentage of change in the demand for the good. ( Ei = 1). Income Elasticity is Greater than 1: The change in income increases the demand for that commodity more than the change in the income. ( Ei > 1). Income Elasticity is Less than 1: The change in income increases the demand for the commodity but at a lesser percentage than the change in the Income. ( Ei < 1). 29 The positive income elasticity of demand can be classified as unity, more than unity and less than unity. We can understand from the above graphs that the product which is highly elastic in nature will grow faster when the economy is expanding. The performance of firms having low income elasticity on the other hand will be less affected by the economic changes of the country. With a rise in consumer’s income, the demand increases for superior goods and decreases for inferior goods and vice versa. The income elasticity of demand is positive for superior goods or normal goods and negative for inferior goods since a person may shift from inferior to superior goods with a rise in income. 30 Cross Elasticiy The quantity demanded of a particular commodity varies according to the price of other commodities. Cross elasticity measures the responsiveness of the quantity demanded of a commodity due to changes in the price of another commodity. For example the demand for tea increases when the price of coffee goes up. Here the cross elasticity of demand for tea is high. If two goods are substitutes then they will have a positive cross elasticity of demand. In other words if two goods are complementary to each other then negative income elasticity may arise. The responsiveness of the quantity of one commodity demanded to a change in the price of another good is calculated with the following formula. % change in demand for commodity A Ec = ------------------------------------------------- % change in price of commodity B If two commodities are unrelated goods, the increase in the price of one good does not result in any change in the demand for the other goods. For example the price fall in Tata salt does not make any change in the demand for Tata Nano. Significance Of Elasticity Of Demand: The concept of elasticity is useful for the managers for the following decision making activities 1. In production i.e. in deciding the quantity of goods to be produced 2. Price fixation i.e. in fixing the prices not only on the cost basis but also on the basis of prices of related goods. 3. In distribution i.e. to decide as to where, when, and how much etc. 4. In international trade i.e. what to export, where to export 5. In foreign exchange 6. For nationalizing an industry 7. In public finance 31 Demand Forecasting All organizations operate in an atmosphere of uncertainty but decisions must be made today that affect the future of the organization. There are various ways of making forecasts that rely on logical methods of manipulating the data that have been generated by historical events. A forecast is a prediction or estimation of a future situation, under given conditions. Demand forecast will help the manager to take the following decisions effectively. The major short run decisions The major long run decisions are: are: ՖՖ Purchase of inputs ՖՖ Expansion of existing capacity ՖՖ Maintaining of economic ՖՖ Diversification of the product level of inventory mix ՖՖ Setting up sales targets ՖՖ Growth of acquisition ՖՖ Distribution network ՖՖ Change of location of plant ՖՖ Management of working ՖՖ Capital issues capital ՖՖ Long run borrowings ՖՖ Price policy ՖՖ Manpower planning ՖՖ Promotion policy The steps to be followed: ՖՖ Identification of objectives ՖՖ Nature of product and market ՖՖ Determinants of demand ՖՖ Analysis of factors ՖՖ Choice of technology ՖՖ Testing the accuracy Criteria to choose a method of forecasting are: ՖՖ Accuracy ՖՖ Plausibility ՖՖ Durability ՖՖ Flexibility ՖՖ Availability 32 The following are needed for demand forecasting: ՖՖ Appropriate production scheduling ՖՖ Suitable purchase policy ՖՖ Appropriate price policy ՖՖ Setting realistic sales targets for salesmen ՖՖ Forecasting financial requirements ՖՖ Business planning ՖՖ Financial planning ՖՖ Planning man-power requirements To select the appropriate forecasting technique, the manager/forecaster must be able to accomplish the following: 1. Define the nature of the forecasting problem 2. Explain the nature of the data under investigation 3. Describe the capabilities and limitations of potentially useful forecasting techniques. 4. Develop some predetermined criteria on which the selection decision can be made. Demand Forecasting Methods: 1. Survey of buyers’ intension 2. Delphi method 3. Expert opinion 4. Collective opinion 5. Naïve model 6. Smoothing techniques 7. Time series / trend projection 8. Controlled experiments 9. Judgmental approach Time Series / Trend Projection The linear trend is the most commonly used method of time series analysis. The following are various trend projections used under various circumstances. 33 linear trend Y= a+bX quadratic trend Y= a + bX + cX2 cubic trend Y= a + bX + cX2 + dX3 exponential trend Y= a e b/x double log trend Y= a Xb Linear Trend Equation: Y=a+bX Y = demand X = time period a,b constant values representing intercept and slope of the line. To calculate Y for any value of X we have to solve the following equations, (i) and (ii). We can derive the values of ‘a’ and ‘b’ through solving these equations and by substituting the same in the above given linear trend equation we can forecast demand for ‘X’ time period. ∑Y = na + b∑X ----- (i) ∑XY = a∑X + b∑X ----- 2 (ii) 34 Example: Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sales 22734 24731 31489 44685 55319 91021 146234 107887 127483 97275 Estimate the sales for 2012, 2015 and fit a linear regression equation and draw a trend line. Year X Sales (Y) XY X2 2002 1 22734 22734 1 2003 2 24731 49462 4 2004 3 31489 94467 9 2005 4 44685 178740 16 2006 5 55319 276595 25 2007 6 91021 546126 36 2008 7 146234 1023638 49 2009 8 107887 863096 64 2010 9 127483 1147347 81 2011 10 97275 972750 100 ∑X = 55 ∑Y= 748858 ∑XY= 5174955 ∑X2= 385 ∑Y = na + b∑X ----- (i) ∑XY = a∑X + b∑X ----- 2 (ii) 748858 = 10a + 55b ----- (i) 5174955 = 55a + 385 b ----- (ii) Equation (i) x 3 5242006 = 70a + 385 b ----- (iii) Equation (iii) – (ii) 67051 = 15a 4470.07 = a Substitute value of ‘a’ in equation (i) 748858 = 44700 + 55 b 55b = 748858 – 44700 b = 12802.8 35 Y = a+bX Y = 4470.07 + 12802.8 X Sales for 2012 = 4470.07 + 12802.8 (11) = 145300.87 Sales for 2015 = 4470.07 + 12802.8 (14) = 183709.27 Techniques that should be used when forecasting stationary series (the demand patterns influencing the series are relatively stable) include naïve method, simple average method, moving average, and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and Box-Jenkins method. When forecasting trend series then, moving averages, simple regression, growth curves, exponential models and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and Box-Jenkins methods can be used. For seasonal series census X-12, winter’s exponential smoothing, multiple regression and ARIMA models can be used. When forecasting cyclical series econometric models, economic indicators, multiple regression and ARIMA models can be used. The major forecasting techniques are: naïve, simple average, moving averages, exponential smoothing, linear exponential smoothing, quadratic exponential smoothing, seasonal exponential smoothing, adaptive filtering, simple regression, multiple regression, classical decomposition, 36 exponential trend models, S-curve fitting, Compertz models, growth curves, census X-12, Box-Jenkins, leading indicators, econometric models and time series multiple regression may be used. The causal forecasting models (simple, multiple regression analysis) will be useful to decide the production, personnel hiring, and facility planning in the short run. In Time series forecasting models like decomposition is suitable to decide the new plant, equipment planning. Moving average and exponential smoothing is used for operations such as inventory, scheduling and pricing decisions. The autoregressive models, Box-Jenkins techniques are used to forecast price, inventory, production, stock and sales related decisions. Neural network method is for forecasting applications in development phase of the organization. Apart from the above mentioned statistical methods the survey methods are also commonly used. They are: 1. Complete Enumeration Method: the survey covers all the potential consumers in the market and an interview is conducted to find out the probable demand. The sum of all gives the total demand for the industry. If the number of customers is too many this method cannot be used. 2. Sample Survey Method: the complete enumeration is not possible always. The forecaster can go in for sample survey method. In this method, only few (a sample) customers are selected from the total and interviewed and then the average demand is estimated. 3. Expert’s Opinion: the experienced people from the same field or from marketing agents can also be taken into consideration for collecting information about the future demand. The above discussed qualitative and quantitative methods are commonly used to forecast the future demand and based on this information firms will take production decision. 37 Review Questions: 1. Define demand. 2. State the law of demand. 3. Prepare a demand schedule for an apple i-pad in the Indian market. 4. Distinguish between shift in demand and a movement along a demand curve. 5. List out the factors which determine market demand for a commodity of your choice. 6. Categorize the types of demand with proper examples. 7. What is meant by industry demand and company demand? 8. Explain perfectly elastic demand and perfectly in elastic demand with a suitable example. 9. Explain the concept of cross elasticity of demand with an example. 10. Explain the concept of income elasticity of demand and discuss the importance of income elasticity of demand for a business firm. 11. What are the different types of price elasticity of demand? 12. Explain the slope of income demand curve for a superior and inferior good. 13. Discuss the cross elasticity of demand with an example. 14. List out the significance of elasticity of demand in managerial decision making. 15. What is meant by demand forecasting? Why is it important for the managers of business firm? 16. Why do business entities have to forecast demand? 17. What are the quantitative and qualitative methods of demand forecasting? 18. Discuss the steps to be followed during demand forecast. 19. Mention the major criteria to choose a suitable forecasting method. 20. Explain the consumer survey method and discuss the merits and demerits of complete enumeration method and sample survey method. 38 Exercises: (a) The demand for petrol rises from 500 to 600 Barrels when the price of a particular scooter is reduced from Rs. 25000 to Rs.22000. Find out the cross elasticity of demand for the two. What is the nature of their relationship? (b) A company has the following demand equation Q = 1000 – 3000 P + 10 A Q = Quantity demanded P = Product Price A = Advertisement expenditure Assume that P = 3 and A = 2000 ՖՖ Suppose the firm drops the price to Rs. 2.50 would this be beneficial. ՖՖ Suppose the firm raises the price to Rs. 4.00 while increasing its advertisement expenditure by 100 would this be beneficial? Explain (c) Try to collect 10 to 20 years sales details of a company and forecast their demand for the next year and find out the demand for the same after 5 years from now. Fit the linear equation and draw the trend line. And suggest short term and long term decisions to be taken in the organization to meet the future demand. ***** 39 40 Lesson III Supply Analysis Reading Objectives: At the end of this lesson the reader will be able understand that supply is an independent economic activity but it is based on the demand for commodities. The managers’ ability to make more profits depends upon his ability to adjust the supply to the demand without creating a surplus while at the same time not t creating a scarcity that will spoil the image of the company in the eyes of the public. Supply is also sometimes inelastic and sometimes elastic. The managers have to take wise decisions to maximize the profits of the firm. Lesson Outline: ՖՖ Law of supply ՖՖ Determinants of supply ՖՖ Elasticity of supply ՖՖ Factors influencing supply ՖՖ Review questions 41 Supply of a commodity refers to the various quantities of the commodity which a seller is willing and able to sell at different prices in a given market at a point of time, other things remaining the same. Supply is what the seller is able and willing to offer for sale. The Quantity supplied is the amount of a particular commodity that a firm is willing and able to offer for sale at a particular price during a given time period. Supply Schedule: is a table showing how much of a commodity, firms can sell at different prices. Law of Supply: is the relationship between price of the commodity and quantity of that commodity supplied. i.e. an increase in price will lead to an increase in quantity supplied and vice versa. Supply Curve: A graphical representation of how much of a commodity a firm sells at different prices. The supply curve is upward sloping from left to right. Therefore the price elasticity of supply will be positive. Graph - Supply curve Determinants Of Supply: 1. The cost of factors of production: Cost depends on the price of factors. Increase in factor cost increases the cost of production, and reduces supply. 2. The state of technology: Use of advanced technology increases productivity of the organization and increases its supply. 3. External factors: External factors like weather influence the supply. If there is a flood, this reduces supply of various agricultural products. 4. Tax and subsidy: Increase in government subsidies results in 42 more production and higher supply. 5. Transport: Better transport facilities will increase the supply. 6. Price: If the prices are high, the sellers are willing to supply more goods to increase their profit. 7. Price of other goods: The price of other goods is more than ‘X’ then the supply of ‘X’ will be increased. Elasticity of Supply: Elasticity of supply of a commodity is defined as the responsiveness of a quantity supplied to a unit change in price of that commodity. ΔQs / Qs Es = ------------ ΔP / P ΔQs = change in quantity supplied Qs = quantity supplied ΔP = change in price P = price Kinds Of Supply Elasticity Price elasticity of supply: Price elasticity of supply measures the responsiveness of changes in quantity supplied to a change in price. Perfectly inelastic: If there is no response in supply to a change in price. (Es = 0) Inelastic supply: The proportionate change in supply is less than the change in price (Es =0-1) Unitary elastic: The percentage change in quantity supplied equals the change in price (Es=1) Elastic: The change in quantity supplied is more than the change in price (Ex= 1- ∞) Perfectly elastic: Suppliers are willing to supply any amount at a given price (Es=∞) 43 The major determinants of elasticity of supply are availability of substitutes in the market and the time period, Shorter the period higher will be the elasticity. Factors Influencing Elasticity Of Supply 1. Nature of the commodity: If the commodity is perishable in nature then the elasticity of supply will be less. Durable goods have high elasticity of supply. 2. Time period: If the operational time period is short then supply is inelastic. When the the production process period is longer the elasticity of supply will be relatively elastic. 3. Scale of production: Small scale producer’s supply is inelastic in nature compared to the large producers. 4. Size of the firm and number of products: If the firm is a large scale industry and has more variety of products then it can easily transfer the resources. Therefore supply of such products is highly elastic. 5. Natural factors: Natural calamities can affect the production of agricultural products so they are relatively inelastic. 6. Nature of production: If the commodities need more workmanship, or for artistic goods the elasticity of supply will be high. Apart from the above mentioned factors future expectations of the market, natural resources of the country and government controls can also play a role in determining supply of a good. In the long run, supply is affected by cost of production. If costs are rising, some of the existing producers may with draw from the field and new entrepreneurs may be scared of entering the field. 44 Review Questions: ՖՖ Define the concept supply and the law of supply. ՖՖ Collect relevant data and derive a supply curve of an organization. ՖՖ What do you understand by Price elasticity of supply? ՖՖ Mention the types of supply elasticity with example. ՖՖ Explain the factors influencing the elasticity of supply in the market with an example. ***** 45 46 UNIT – II Lesson IV Production Analysis Reading Objectives: At the end of reading of this chapter the reader will be able to understand that production is a function of land, labour, capital and organisation. The mangers will have to procure the right level of these factors based on factors like diminishing marginal utility economies of large scale operations, law of return, scales etc., with a view of maximizing the output with minimum cost so as to earn larger profit to the firm/ industry. Lesson Outline: ՖՖ Factors of production ՖՖ Production function ՖՖ Cobb-Douglas production function ՖՖ The law of diminishing returns ՖՖ Law of returns to scale ՖՖ Iso-quant curve ՖՖ Expansion path ՖՖ Review questions 47 Introduction: Production is an important economic activity which satisfies the wants and needs of the people. Production function brings out the relationship between inputs used and the resulting output. A firm is an entity that combines and processes resources in order to produce output that will satisfy the consumer’s needs. The firm has to decide as to how much to produce and how much input factors (labour and capital) to employ to produce efficiently. This chapter helps to understand the set of conditions for efficient production of an organization. Factors of production include resource inputs used to produce goods and services. Economist categorise input factors into four major categories such as land, labour, capital and organization. Land: Land is heterogeneous in nature. The supply of land is fixed and it is a permanent factor of production but it is productive only with the application of capital and labour. Labour: The supply of labour is inelastic in nature but it differs in productivity and efficiency and it can be improved. Capital: is a man made factor and is mobile but the supply is elastic. Organization: the organization plans, , supervises, organizes and controls the business activity and also takes risks. Production Function Production function indicates the maximum amount of commodity ‘X’ to be produced from various combinations of input factors. It decides on the maximum output to be produced from a given level of input, and how much minimum input can be used to get the desired level of output. The production function assumes that the state of technology is fixed. If there is a change in technology then there would be change in production function. Q = f (Land, Labour, Capital, Organization) Q = f (L, L, C, O) 48 The production manager’s responsibility is that of identifying the right combination of inputs for the decided quantity of output. As a manager ,he has to know the price of the input factors and the budget allocation of the organization. The major objective of any business organization is maximizing the output with minimum cost. To achieve the maximum output the firm has to utilize the input factors efficiently. In the long run, without increasing the fixed factors it is not possible to achieve the goal. Therefore it is necessary to understand the relationship between the input and output in any production process in the short and long run. Cobb Douglas Production Function: This is a function that defines the maximum amount of output that can be produced with a given level of inputs. Let us assume that all input factors of production can be grouped into two categories such as labour (L) and capital (K).The general equilibrium for the production function is Q = f (K, L) There are various functional forms available to describe production. In general Cobb-Douglas production function (Quadratic equation) is widely used Q = A Kα Lβ Q = the maximum rate of output for a given rate of capital (K) and labour (L). Short Run Production Function: In the short run, some inputs (land, capital) are fixed in quantity. The output depends on how much of other variable inputs are used. For example if we change the variable input namely (labour) the production function shows how much output changes when more labour is used. In the short run producers are faced with the problem that some input factors are fixed. The firms can make the workers work for longer hours and also can buy more raw materials. In that case, labour and raw material are considered as variable input factors. But the number of machines and the size of the building are fixed. Therefore it has its own constraints in producing more goods. 49 In the long run all input factors are variable. The producer can appoint more workers, purchase more machines and use more raw materials. Initially output per worker will increase up to an extent. This is known as the Law of Diminishing Returns or the Law of Variable Proportion. To understand the law of diminishing returns it is essential to know the basic concepts of production. Measures Of Productivity Total production (TP): the maximum level of output that can be produced with a given amount of input. Average Production (AP): output produced per unit of input AP = Q/L Marginal Production (MP): the change in total output produced by the last unit of an input Marginal production of labour = Δ Q / Δ L (i.e. change in the quantity produced to a given change in the labour) Marginal production of capital = Δ Q / Δ K (i.e. change in the quantity produced to a given change in the capital) Production Function: A production function, like any other function can be expressed and analysed by any one or more of the three tools namely table, graph and equation. The maximum amounts of output attainable from various alternative combinations of input factors are given in the table. The production function expressed in tabular form is as follows. 50 Table - Production Schedule Labour TP AP MP 1 20 20 0 2 54 27 34 3 81 27 27 4 104 26 23 5 125 25 21 6 138 23 13 7 147 21 9 8 152 19 5 9 153 17 1 10 150 15 -3 The firm has a set of fixed variables. As long with that it increases the labour force from 1 unit to 10 units. The increase in input factor leads to increase in the output up to an extent. After that it start declining. Marginal production increases in the initial period and then it starts declining and it become negative. The firm should stop increasing labour force if the marginal production is zero- that is the maximum output that can be derived with the available fixed factors. The 9th labour does not contribute to any output. In case the firm wants to increase the output beyond 153 units it has to improve its fixed variable. That means purchase of new machinery or building is essential. Therefore the firm understands that the maximum output is 153 units with the given set of input factors. 51 The graphical representations of the production function are as shown in the following graph. Graph-Production Curves The graphical presentations of the values are shown in the graph. The ‘X” axis denotes the labour and the ‘Y’ axis indicates the total production (TP), average production (AP) and marginal production (MP). From the given table and graph we can understand all the three curves in the graph increased in the beginning and the marginal product (MP) first fell, then the average product (AP) finally total production (TP). The marginal production curve MP cuts the AP at its highest point. Total production TP falls when marginal production curve cuts the ‘X’ axis. The law of diminishing returns states that if increasing quantity of a variable input are combined with fixed, eventually the marginal product and then average product will decline. When the production function is expressed as an equation it shall be as follows: Q = f (Ld, L, K, M, T ) It can be expressed as Q = f1, f2, f3, f4, f5 > 0 52 Where, Q = Output in physical units of good X Ld = Land units employed in the production of Q L = Labour units employed in the production of Q K = Capital units employed in the production of Q M = Managerial Units employed in the production of Q T = Technology employed in the production of Q f = Unspecified function fi = Partial derivative of Q with respect to ith input. This equation assumes that output is an increasing function of all inputs. The Law Of Diminishing Returns In the combination of input factors when one particular factor is increased continuously without changing other factors the output will increase in a diminishing manner. Let us assume that a person preparing for an examination continuously prepares without any break. The output or the understanding and the coverage of the syllabus will be more in the beginning rather than in the later stages. There is a limit to the extent to which one factor of production can be substituted for another. The total production increases up to an extent and it gets saturated or there won’t be any change in the output due to the addition of the input factor and further it leads to negative impact on the output. That means the marginal production declines up to an extent and it reaches zero and becomes negative. The point at which the MP becomes zero is the maximum output of the firm with the given set of input factors. This law is applicable in all human activities and business activities. For example with two sewing machines and two tailors, a firm can produce a maximum of 14 pairs of curtains per day. The machines are used only from 9 AM to 5 PM and the machines lie idle from 5 pm onwards. Therefore the firm appoints 2 more tailors for the second shift and the production goes up to 28 units. Then adding two more labour to assist these people will increase the output to 30 units. When the firm appoints two more people, then there won’t be any change in their production because their Marginal productivity is zero. There is no addition in the total production. That means there is no use of appointing two more 53 tailors. Therefore, there is a limit for output from a fixed input factors but in the long run purchase of one more sewing machine alone will help the firm to increase the production more than 30 units. The Law Of Returns To Scale In the long run the fixed inputs like machinery, building and other factors will change along with the variable factors like labour, raw material etc. With the equal percentage of increase in input factors various combinations of returns occur in an organization. Returns to scale: the change in percentage output resulting from a percentage change in all the factors of production. They are increasing, constant and diminishing returns to scale. Increasing returns to scale may arise: if the output of a firm increases more than in proportionate to an increase in all inputs. For example the input factors are increased by 50% but the output has doubled (100%). Constant returns to scale: when all inputs are increased by a certain percentage the output increases by the same percentage. For example input factors are increased by 50% then the output has also increased by 50 percentages. Let us assume that a laptop consists of 50 components we call it as a set. In case the firm purchases 100 sets they can assemble 100 laptops but it is not possible to produce more than 100 units. Diminishing returns to scale: when output increases in a smaller proportion than the increase in inputs it is known as diminishing return to scale. For example 50% increment in input factors lead to only 20% increment in the output. From the graph given below we can see the total production (TP) curve and the marginal production curve (MP) and average production curve (AP). It is classified into three stages; let us understand the stages in terms of returns to scale. Stage I: The total production increased at an increasing rate. We refer to this as increasing stage where the total product, marginal product and average production are increasing. 54 Stage II: The total production continues to increase but at a diminishing rate until it reaches the next stage. Marginal product, average product are declining but are positive. The total production is at the maximum level at the end of the second stage with a zero marginal product. Stage III: In this third stage total production declines and marginal product becomes negative. And the average production also started decline. Which implies that the change in input factors there is a decline in the over all production along with the average and marginal. In economics, the production function with one variable input is illustrated with the well known law of variable proportions. (below graph) it shows the input-output relationship or production function with one factor variable while other factors of production are kept constant. To understand a production function with two variable inputs, it is necessary know the concept iso-quant or iso-product curve. 55 ISO-Quants To understand the production function with two variable inputs, iso-quant curve is used. These curves show the various combinations of two variable inputs resulting in the same level of output. The shape of an Iso-quant reflects the ease with which a producer can substitute among inputs while maintaining the same level of output. From the graph we can understand that the iso-quant curve indicates various combinations of capital and labour usage to produce 100 units of motor pumps. The points a, b or any point in the curve indicates the same quantum of production. If the production increases to 200 or 300 units definitely the input usage will also increase therefore the new iso-quant curve for 200 units (Q1) is shifted upwards. Various iso-quant curves presented in a graph is called as iso- quant map. Iso-cost: different combination of inputs that can be purchased at a given expenditure level. The above graph explains clearly that the iso quant curve for 100 units of motor consists of ‘n’ number of input combinations to produce the same quantity. For example at ‘a’ to produce 100 units of motors the firm uses OC amount of capital and OL amount of labour ie., more capital and less labour force. At ’b’ OC1 amount of capital and OL1 labour force is used to produce the same that means more labour and less capital. Optimal input combination: The points of tangency between iso quant and iso cost curves depict optimal input combination at different activity levels. 56 Expansion path: Optimal input combinations as the scale of production expand. From the graph it is clear that the optimum combination is selected based on the tangency point of iso cost (budget line) and iso- quant ie., a, b respectively. The point ‘a’ indicates that to produce 100 units of motor the best combination of capital and labour are OC and OM which is within the budget. Over a period of time a firm will face various optimum levels if we connect all points we derive expansion path of a firm. Managerial Uses Of Production Function: Production functions are logical and useful. Production analysis can be used as aids in decision making because they can give guidance to obtain the maximum output from a given set of inputs and how to obtain a given output from the minimum aggregation of inputs. The complex production functions with large numbers of inputs and outputs are analyzed with the help of computer based programmes. 57 Review Questions 1. List out the major factors of production (input factors used) in a cement factory. 2. Define production function and Cobb-Douglas production function. 3. Write short notes on Marginal Product and Average product. 4. Briefly discuss the concept Returns to scale, increasing and decreasing returns to scale. 5. Explain the Law of variable proportions. 6. What is Iso-quant? 7. What do you mean by an expansion path? 8. Discuss the managerial uses of production function. ***** 58 Lesson V Cost Analysis Reading Objectives: At the end of reading this chapter the reader will be able to understand the concepts like fixed cost, variable cost, average cost, and marginal cost. The concept of the marginal costing is the contribution of the 20th century. The concept like break even analysis, cost volume profit analysis are the important tools used to take various managerial decisions. The concept like average revenue decides the level of output to earn profit. At the same time the concept like marginal cost is the tool available in the hands of the producers to decide that level of output where MC = AR i.e., the equilibrium position of the suppliers and consumers. Lesson Outline: ՖՖ Cost of determinants ՖՖ Types of cost ՖՖ Short run cost output relationship ՖՖ Cost output relationship in the long run ՖՖ Economies of scale / diseconomies of scale ՖՖ Factors causing economies of scale ՖՖ Break-Even Analysis ՖՖ Review questions 59 Introduction: A production function tells us how much output a firm can produce with its existing plant and equipment. The level of output depends on prices and costs. The most desirable rate of output is the one that maximizes total profit that is the difference between total revenue and total cost. Entrepreneurs pay for the input factors- Wages for labour, price for raw material, rent for building hired, interest for borrowed money. All these costs are included in the cost of production. The economist’s concept of cost of production is different from accounting. This chapter helps us to understand the basic cost concepts and the cost output relationship in the short and long runs. Having looked at input factors in the previous chapter it is now possible to see how the law of diminishing returns affect short run costs. Cost Determinants The cost of production of goods and services depends on various input factors used by the organization and it differs from firm to firm. The major cost determinants are: 1.Level of output: The cost of production varies according to the quantum of output. If the size of production is large then the cost of production will also be more. 2.Price of input factors: A rise in the cost of input factors will increase the total cost of production. 3.Productivities of factors of production: When the productivity of the input factors is high then the cost of production will fall. 4.Size of plant: The cost of production will be low in large plants due to mass production with mechanization. 5.Output stability: The overall cost of production is low when the output is stable over a period of time. 60 6.Lot size: Larger the size of production per batch then the cost of production will come down because the organizations enjoy economies of scale. 7.Laws of returns: The cost of production will increase if the law of diminishing returns appliesin the firm. 8.Levels of capacity utilization: Higher the capacity utilization, lower the cost of production 9.Time period: In the long run cost of production will be stable. 10.Technology: When the organization follows advanced technology in their process then the cost of production will be low. 11.Experience: over a period of time the experience in production process will help the firm to reduce cost of production. 12.Process of range of products: Higher the range of products produced, lower the cost of production. 13.Supply chain and logistics: Better the logistics and supply chain, lower the cost of production. 14.Government incentives: If the government provides incentives on input factors then the cost of production will be low. Types Of Costs There are various classifications of costs based on the nature and the purpose of calculation. But in economics and for accounting purpose the following are the important cost concepts. Actual cost/ Outlay cost/ Absolute cost / Accounting cost: The cost or expenditure which a firm incurs for producing or acquiring a good or service. (Eg. Raw material cost) 61 Opportunity cost: The revenue which could have been earned by employing that good or service in some other alternative uses. (Eg. A land owned by the firm does not pay rent. Thus a rent is an income forgone by not letting it out) Sunk cost: Are retrospective (past) costs that have already been incurred and cannot be recovered. Historical cost: The price paid for a plant originally at the time of purchase. Replacement cost: The price that would have to be paid currently for acquiring the same plant. Incremental cost: Is the addition to costs resulting from a change in the nature of level of business activity. Change in cost caused by a given managerial decision. Explicit cost: Cost actually paid by the firm. If the factors of production are hired or rented then it is an explicit cost. Implicit cost: If the factors of production are owned by a firm then its cost is implicit cost. Book cost: Costs which do not involve any cash payments but a provision is made in the books of accounts in order to include them in the profit and loss account to take tax advantages. Social cost: Total cost incurred by the society on account of production of a good or service. Transaction cost: The cost associated with the exchange of goods and services. Controllable cost: Costs which can be controllable by the executives are called as controllable cost. Shut down cost: Cost incurred if the firm temporarily stops its operation. These can be saved by continuing business. 62 Economic costs are related to future. They play a vital role in business decisions as the costs considered in decision - making are usually future costs. They are similar in nature to that of incremental, imputed explicit and opportunity costs. Determinants Of Short –Run Cost Fixed cost: Some inputs are used over a period of time for producing more than one batch of goods. The costs incurred in these are called fixed cost. For example amount spent on purchase of equipment, machinery, land and building. Variable cost: When output has increased the firm spends more on these items. For example the money spent on labour wages, raw material and electricity usage. Variable costs vary according to the output. In the long run all costs become variable. Total cost: The market value of all resources used to produce a good or service. Total Fixed cost: Cost of production remains constant whatever the level of output. Total Variable cost: Cost of production varies with output. Average cost: Total cost divided by the level of output. Average variable cost: Variable cost divided by the level of output. Average fixed cost: Total fixed cost divided by the level of output. Marginal cost: Cost of producing an extra unit of output. Short Run Cost Output Relationship Fixed cost curve is a horizontal line which is parallel to the ‘X’ axis. This cost is constant with respect to output in the short run. Fixed cost does not change with output. It must be paid even if ‘0’ units of output are produced. For example: if you have purchased a building for the business you have invested capital on building even if there is no production. 63 Total fixed cost (TFC) consists of various costs incurred on the building, machinery, land, etc.. For example if you have spent Rs. 2 Lakhs and bought machinery and building which is used to produce more than one batch of commodity, then the same cost of Rs. 2 Lakhs is fixed cost for all batches. The total variable costs vary according to the output. Whenever the output increases the firm has to buy more raw materials, use more electricity, labour and other sources therefore the TVC curve is upward sloping. The total cost consists of fixed (TFC) and variable costs (TVC). The TFC of Rs. 2 Lakhs is included with the variable cost throughout the production schedule so the total cost (TC) is above the TVC line. Graph – Total Cost Curves Graph – Average Cost Curves The above set of graphs indicates clearly that the average variable cost curve looks like a boat. Average fixed cost curve declines as output increases and it is a hyperbola to the origin. The Marginal cost curve slopes like a tick mark which declines up to an extent then it starts increasing 64 along with the output. Let us see and understand the nature of each and every curve with an example. The table and graphs shown below indicates the total costs curves and average cost curves at various output level. Table - Cost Schedule (Rupees in thousands ‘000) Output TC TFC TVC AFC ATC AVC MC 0 v1200 300 - - - - - 1 1800 300 1500 300 1800 1500 600 2 2000 300 1700 150 1000 850 200 3 2100 300 1800 100 700 600 100 4 2250 300 1950 75 562.5 487.5 150 5 2600 300 2300 60 520 460 350 6 3300 300 3000 50 550 500 700 Graph – Average Cost Curves 65 Graph – Total Cost Curves From the above table and set of graphs we can understand that capital is the fixed factor of production and the total fixed cost will be the same Rs. 300,000. The total variable cost will increase as more and more goods are produced. So the total variable cost TVC of producing 1 unit is Rs.1500 000, for 2 units 1700 000 and so on. Total cost = TFC + TVC for 1 unit TC = 300 + 1500 = 1800. The marginal cost of producing an extra unit is calculated based on the difference in total cost. MCn = TCn – TCn-1 MC2 = TC2 – TC 2-1 = 2000 – 1800 = 200 MC for 5th unit = TC of 5th unit minus TC of 4th unit, in our example 2600 – 2250 = 350. AVC also is calculated in the same manner TVC / output = 2600 / 5 = 460 AFC = TFC / output = 300 / 5 = 60. 66 Relationship Between Marginal Cost And Average Cost Curve: The marginal cost and average cost curves are U shaped because of law of diminishing returns. The marginal cost curve cuts the average cost curve and average variable cost curves at their lowest point. Marginal cost curve cuts the average variable cost from below. The AC curve is above the MC curve when AC is falling. The AC curve is below the MC when AC is increasing. The intersecting point indicates that AC=MC and that is the minimum average cost with an optimum output. (No more output can be produced at this average cost without increasing the fixed cost of production) Graph – Relationship Between Average Cost And Marginal Cost Optimum Output And Minimum Cost The MC and AC curves are mirror image of the MP and AP curves. It is presented in the graph below. All organizations aim for maximum output with minimum cost. To achieve this goal they like to derive the point where optimum output can be produced with the given amount of input factors and with a minimum average cost. In the graph the MP=AP at maximum average production. On the other hand MC = AC at minimum average variable cost. Therefore this is the optimum output to be produced to achieve their managerial goals. 67 Graph – Optimum Cost And Output The above set of cost curves explain the cost output relationship in the short period but in the long run there is no fixed cost because all costs vary over a period of time. Therefore in the long run the firm will have only average cost curve that is called as long run average cost curve (LAC). Let us see how the average cost curve is derived in the long run. This LAC also slopes like the short period average cost curve (U shaped) provided the law of diminishing returns prevails. In case the returns to scale are increasing or constant then the LAC curve will have a different slope. It will be a horizontal line, which is parallel to the ‘X’ axis. Cost Output Relationship In The Long Run In the long run costs fall as output increases due to economies of scale, consequently the average cost AC of production falls. Some firms experience diseconomies of scale if the average cost begins to increase. This fall and rise derives a U shaped or boat shaped average cost curve in the long run which is denoted as LAC. The minimum point of the curve is said to be the optimum output in the long run. It is explained graphically in the chart given below. 68 Graph – Long Run Average Cost Curve In the long run all factors are variable and the average cost may fall or increase to A, B respectively but all these costs are above the long run cost average cost. LAC is the lower envelope of all the short run average cost curves because it contains them all. At point ‘E’ the SAC1 and SMC1 intersects each other, in case the organization increases its output from OM to OM1 they have to spend OC1 amount. In case the organization purchases one more machine (increase in fixed cost) then they will get a new set of cost curves SAC2, and SMC2. But the new average cost curve reduces the cost of production from OC1 to OC2.That means they can save the difference of C1C2 which is nothing but AB. Therefore in the long run due to business expansion a firm can reduce their cost of production. During their business life they will meet many combinations of optimum production and minimum cost in different short periods. In the long run due to law of diminishing returns the long run average cost curve LAC also slopes like boat shape. Economies Of Scale Economies of scale exist when long run average costs decline as output is increased. Diseconomies of scale exist when long run average cost rises as output is increased. It is graphically presented in the following graph. The economies of scale occur because of (i) technical economies: the change in production process due to technology adoption. (ii) Managerial economies (iii) purchasing economies, (iv) marketing economies and (v) financial economies. 69 Economies of scale means a fall in average cost of production due to growth in the size of the industry within which a firm operates. Diseconomies Of Scale: Arises due to managerial problems. If the size of the business becomes too large, then it becomes difficult for management to control the organizational activities therefore diseconomies of scale arise. Graph – Economies of Scale and Diseconomies of scale Factors Causing Economies Of Scale: There are various factors influencing the economies of scale of an organization. They are generally classified in to two categories as Internal factors and External factors. Internal Factors: 1. Labour economies: if the labour force of a firm is specialized in a specific skill then the organization can achieve economies of scale due to higher labour productivity. 2. Technical economies: with the use of advanced technology they can produce large quantities with quality which reduces their cost of production. 3. Managerial economies: the managerial skills of an organization will be advantageous to achieve economies of scale in various business activities. 70 4. Marketing economies: use of various marketing strategies will help in achieving economies of scale. 5. Vertical integration: if there is vertical integration then there will be efficient use of raw material due to internal factor flow. 6. Financial economies: the firm’s financial soundness and past record of financial transactions will help them to get financial facilities easily. 7. Economies of risk spreading: having variety of products and diversification will help them to spread their risk and reduce losses. 8. Economies of scale in purchase: when the organization purchases raw material in bulk reduces the transportation cost and maintains uniform quality. External Factors: 1. Better repair and maintenance facilities: When the machinery and equipments are repaired and maintained, then the production process never gets affected. 2. Research and Development: research facilities will provide opportunities to introduce new products and process methods. 3. Training and Development: continuous training and development of skills in the managerial, production level will achieve economies of scale. 4. Economies of location: the plant location plays a major role in cutting down the cost of materials, transport and other expenses. 5. Economies of Information Technology: advanced Information technology provides timely accurate information for better decision making and for better services. 6. Economies of by-products: Organizations can increase the economies of scale by minimizing waste and can be environmental responsible by using the by- products of the organization. 71 Factors Causing Diseconomies Of Scale: 1. Labour union: continuous labour problem and dissatisfaction can lead to diseconomies of scale. 2. Poor team work: Poor performance of the team leads to diseconomies of scale. 3. Lack of co-ordination: lack of coordination among the work force has a major role to play in causing diseconomies of scale. 4. Difficulty in fund raising: difficulties in fund raising reduce the scale of operation. 5. Difficulty in decision making: the managerial inability, delay in decision making is also a factor that determines the economies of scale. 6. Scarcity of Resources: raw material availability determines the purchase and price. Therefore there is a possibility of facing diseconomies in firms. 7. Increased risk: growing risk factors can cause diseconomies of scale in an organization. It is essential to reduce the same. Constant R

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