Lecture 4 - Climate Change & Extreme Weather Events PDF

Lecture 4 Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events  What is Air Pollution? Air pollution may be defined as the presence of chemicals or compounds in the air which are usually not present, and which lower the quality of the air and/or cause detrimental changes to the quali...

Lecture 4 Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events  What is Air Pollution? Air pollution may be defined as the presence of chemicals or compounds in the air which are usually not present, and which lower the quality of the air and/or cause detrimental changes to the quality of life or the health of humans and other life forms It may also refer to gases and particulate matter present in concentrations that are “above normal” Environment Canada: https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/air-pollution.ht ml  Climate Weather: The weather is the condition of the atmosphere in one area at a particular time Climate: The weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period The major elements of weather and climate are temperature, air pressure, wind, solar energy, humidity, precipitation, and topography Major Global Circulation Patterns  Ocean Currents Regulate Climate Currents regulate global climate, helping to counteract the uneven distribution of solar radiation reaching Earth’s surface Act like a conveyer belt, transporting warm water and precipitation from the equator toward the poles and cold water from the poles back to the tropics Without currents, regional temperatures would be more extreme—super hot at the equator and frigid toward the poles—and much less of Earth’s land would be habitable Major Ocean Currents Thermohaline Circulation  Visualising Earth's Ocean Currents Using data compiled by NASA, created with the help of Pixar https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCmTY0PKGDs  Natural Phenomena: Cyclical Warming and Cooling El Nino La Nina  El Nino is a weather phenomenon characterized by heavier than usual winter precipitation Caused by a warm ocean current of varying intensity that usually occurs after late December Starts in the Pacific Ocean along the coast of Ecuador and Peru Can cause catastrophic weather conditions worldwide Usually occur irregularly,  La Nina Characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Appear approximately every 3-5 years and typically last 1-2 years. La Niña's cooling of the equatorial Pacific tends to favour hurricane formation in the western Atlantic In contrast, El Niño conditions tend to suppress the development of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, but increase the number of tropical storms over the eastern and central Pacific Ocean La Niña usually brings colder winters to the Canadian  El Nino and La Nina https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFy44bV06fI  What’s In A Name? The Greenhouse Effect Global Warming Climate Change The “Greenhouse Effect”: A Natural Process  The “Greenhouse Effect” The passage of long-wave radiation into space is delayed as it is absorbed by certain gases, clouds, and dust in the atmosphere, then reradiated back toward the Earth, increasing the temperature in the troposphere over time Carbon dioxide, water vapour, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, etc. A natural process essential for life on Earth https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qg7M2DG-1Vs  Global Warming The Earth cools down by giving off infrared radiation Before all this radiation can escape into space, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb some of it, which makes the atmosphere warmer, which in turn makes the Earth's surface warmer, too  Measuring Global Average Temperature To calculate a global average temperature, scientists begin with temperature measurements taken at locations around the globe Because their goal is to track changes in temperature, measurements are converted from absolute temperature readings to temperature anomalies, the difference between the observed temperature and the long-term average temperature for each location and date Multiple independent research groups across the world perform their own analysis of the surface temperature data, and they all show a similar upward trend  Temperature Anomalies The term temperature anomaly means a departure from the long- term average Positive Temperature Anomalies: temperatures above average values Negative Temperature Anomalies: temperatures below average values NASA Temperature Data 1880-2012 Five-Year Global Temperature Anomalies (HD 1080p) https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4030 Global Warming - temperature anomalies by country 1900- 2016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLSZ6U_VyGk Warming since the Last Ice Age? Some have argued that the Earth is simply undergoing natural warming since the last ice age The Earths temperature does fluctuate depending on the number of major volcanic eruptions that have occurred in a period of time, which release significant amounts of particulate matter into the atmosphere, and therefore reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth (a cooling effect)  Gases in the Atmosphere Earth’s atmosphere consists mostly of nitrogen and oxygen Other gases in dilute concentrations Permanent gases are in fixed concentrations Variable gases vary in concentration as a result of natural processes and human activities Natural Sources of Carbon Dioxide Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Atmospheric concentrations of important global warming gases over the last 10,000 years Source: IPCC 2007 (WGI-AR4, Summary for Policymakers, Feb. 2007)  Global Warming Potential Global warming potential (GWP) is a relative measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere It compares the amount of heat trapped by a certain mass of the gas in question to the amount of heat trapped by a similar mass of carbon dioxide CO2, by definition, has a GWP of 1 regardless of the time period used, because it is the gas being used as the reference CO2 remains in the climate system for a very long time: CO2 emissions cause increases in atmospheric  Global Warming Potential Methane (CH4) is estimated to have a GWP of 28–36 over 100 years Nitrous Oxide (N2O) has a GWP 265–298 times that of CO2 for a 100-year timescale Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) are sometimes called high-GWP gases because, for a given amount of mass, they trap substantially more heat than CO2 - The GWPs for these gases can be in the thousands or tens of thousands!  Human Sources of Greenhouse Gases 87 percent of all human CO2 emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels like coal, natural gas and oil Other sources include deforestation, intensive livestock farming, use of synthetic fertilizers and industrial processes Human sources of CO2 are much smaller than natural emissions but they upset the balance in the carbon cycle that existed before the Industrial Revolution The amount of CO2 produced by natural sources is completely offset by natural carbon sinks and has been for thousands of years Burning Fossil Fuels Sources of Personal Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Canada, 2001 2003 October Report of the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development http://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/att_c20031002xe04_e_12878.html Carbon Release Unprecedented Nature Geoscience 9, 325–329 (2016)  Paleoclimatology: Proxy Measures of Historical Climate Change Ice Cores Coral Reefs Historical Records  Ice Cores Located high in mountains and deep in polar ice caps, ice has accumulated from snowfall over many centuries Scientists drill through the deep ice to collect ice cores These cores contain dust, air bubbles, and isotopes of oxygen, that can be used to interpret the past climate of that area Carbon Dioxide Concentrations for the last 800,000 years The Keeling Curve and Mauna Loa Observatory The Keeling Curve is a graph that plots the ongoing change in concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere since 1957 It is based on continuous measurements taken at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii that began under the supervision of Charles David Keeling  "Please Help the World" Film from the opening ceremony of the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009 (COP15) in Copenhagen from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark. Shown on December 7, 2009 at COP15. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVGGgncVq-4  Impacts of Climate Change Rising Global Temperature Melting of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Melting of Glaciers Sea Level Rise Changes in Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events Changing Precipitation Patterns  Rising Global Temperature Averaged over all land and ocean surfaces, temperatures warmed roughly 1.53 degrees Fahrenheit (0.85 degrees Celsius) from 1880 to 2012 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) The 10 warmest years in the 134-year record all have occurred since 2000 The year 2016 ranks as the warmest on record  Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change (1880 - 2015) NASA's Global Land- Ocean Temperature Index graph provides a clear view of the steep rise in global temperatures since 1880 and particularly over the past three decades https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Temperature http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/1/18/14310430/2016-hottest-year-record Declining Arctic Sea Ice Extent of Floating Arctic Sea Ice National Snow and Ice Data Centre, University of Colorado http://nsidc.org/about/monthlyhighlights/2015/10/evaluating-arctic-sea- ice-predictions Effect on Polar Bears  Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt Freshwater released into the Antarctic Coastal Current from melting ice traps warm water beneath ice shelves along the vulnerable West Antarctic peninsula. This results in a cycle where more freshwater is released into coastal currents that repeatedly pushes more warm water below the ice – a positive feedback loop. Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating  Melting Glaciers McCarty Glacier, Alaska Muir Glacier, Alaska Losing a Valuable Freshwater Source  Ocean Warming: Sea Level Rise Sensitive Coastal Areas on the Atlantic Coast Thermal expansion, combined with the melting of land-based ice, has caused global average sea level to rise by about 20 cm since 1880 Sea-level changes are driven by a combination of local, regional, hemispheric or global factors The changing volume of the oceans (due to thermal expansion and glacial melting) and glacio-isostatic activity Each coastal area responds differently to a particular combination of factors, and the change in sea level is not identical, either throughout the world or along Canada ’s three marine coastlines Atlantic Canada is now subsiding http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/environment/resources/publications/ impacts-adaptation/reports/assessments/2008/10261  Vulnerable Coastal Wetlands U.S. Climate Change Science Program. 2009. Synthesis and assessment product 4.1: Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise: A focus on the mid–Atlantic region.  Ghost Forest: Dying trees show climate change's advance This story was published in partnership with TIME in October 2019 As sea levels rise, trees die off and leave behind eerie remnants of a once healthy forest. Now found all along the Atlantic coast, researchers compare these "ghost forests" to glaciers as one of the starkest indicators of climate change in the world https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQozp2xZ3Q0  Ocean Warming: Oxygen Loss Ocean deoxygenation refers to the loss of oxygen from the oceans due to climate change (Keeling et al. 2010). As the oceans warm, their ability to trap dissolved oxygen decreases, which is why colder waters on Earth contain a lower concentration of the gas As the warming is generally contained to the upper layer of the oceans, it decreases the density of the surface water, preventing it from dropping to the depths and taking the oxygen with it Long-term ocean monitoring shows that oxygen concentrations in the ocean have declined during the 20th century IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5 WG1) predicts that they will decrease by 3-6% during the 21st century in response to surface warming https://phys.org/news/2016-04-widespread-loss-ocean-oxygen- 2030s.html  Ocean Warming: Ocean Acidification When carbon dioxide dissolves in the ocean, carbonic acid is formed This leads to higher acidity, mainly near the surface, which has been proven to inhibit shell growth in marine animals and is suspected as a cause of reproductive disorders in some fish A shell placed in seawater with increased acidity slowly dissolves over 45 days http://ocean.si.edu/ocean-acidification Permafrost Melting  Climate Change in Canada’s North The impacts of climate change in the North are “the first and the worst” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu18Ek7cNL8  Changes in Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events Hurricanes Tornadoes Ice Storms Mid-latitude Polar Vortex Droughts Floods  Frequency and Intensity of Hurricanes http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/ science_and_impacts/impacts/hurricanes-and-climate- change.html#.WhUAYXlrzIU https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/sotc/tropical-cyclones/2012/ annual/NAT_storms_2012.png Frequency of Tornadoes https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/201613  Ice Storms: January 1998 & December 2013  Polar Vortex The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding both of the Earth's poles It ALWAYS exists near the poles, but weakens in summer and strengthens in winter The term "vortex" refers to the counter-clockwise flow of air that helps keep the colder air near the Poles.  Changes in the Jet Stream Though it's a relatively new area of study, there's increasing evidence that suggests this phenomenon will happen more often and become more extreme The key lies with the jet stream, a narrow, fast-moving band of air in our upper atmosphere that moves weather patterns around. In the past, the jet stream moved fairly smoothly around the northern hemisphere. But recently, it's developed more pronounced kinks that can bring cold, Arctic air much farther south than in the past, or bring heat from the Gulf of Mexico further north than has been typical. Climate Change and the Polar Vortex A recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report found the Arctic is warming two to three times faster than anywhere else on Earth. This temperature difference upsets the stability of the jet stream. In January 2019, the jet stream Changing Precipitation Patterns: Drought and Desertification https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/soils/use/?cid=nrcs142p2_054004 Frequency of Flood Disasters in Canada 1900 to 1999 Alberta Floods of 2013 Ottawa Floods of 2017 https://www.freshwateralliance.ca/floods  The Rising Cost of Extreme Weather Events in Canada s://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/fort-mcmurray-fires-cost-insurers-a-whopping-3-6-billion-the-largest-ever-in-canadian-histor Responding to Climate Change Mitigation Adaptation Or Both?  Potential Mitigation Strategies Two Main Approaches: Reduce Emissions Enhance Carbon Sinks Cap and Trade in Ontario Limited tradable emission allowances Cap will decline each year January 01, 2017  Forests as Carbon Sinks Increase the urban forest Replant clear cut areas  International Efforts to Fight Climate Change 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change An international treaty that acts as a framework for international cooperation to combat climate change by limiting average global temperature increases and the resulting climate change, and coping with impacts that were, by then, inevitable. Conference of Parties (COP) meet annually (23 times) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) In 1997 The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan In 2015 Paris Agreement was adopted in Paris, France  The Kyoto Protocol - 1997 1997 The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan A total of 192 countries have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol The only nations that did not sign are Afghanistan, Sudan & the U.S.A. At the time, it was the closest thing we had to a working global agreement to fight climate change Sets emission reduction targets that were binding for developed countries  The Kyoto Protocol During the first commitment period, 37 industrialized countries and the European Community committed to reduce GHG emissions to an average of five percent against 1990 levels (by 2012) During the second commitment period, Parties committed to reduce GHG emissions by at least 18 percent below 1990 levels in the eight-year period from 2013 to 2020; however, the composition of Parties in the second commitment period is different from the first The Basic Flaw in the Kyoto Protocol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHy5y2O-yqw  The Paris Agreement - 2015 At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal The agreement sets out a global action plan to put the world on track to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C Using past failures as a guide helped launch a “bottoms up” approach in which each country sets its own goals, enabling the Paris agreement to work for everyone — the best way to ensure change Some elements of the agreement — such as requirements to report on progress towards lowering emissions — are binding. However, some elements are non-binding, such as the setting of emission-reduction targets  Actions at the Municipal Level The Cities for Climate Campaign enlists cities to adopt policies and implement measures to achieve quantifiable reductions in local greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality, and enhance urban livability and sustainability More than 650 local governments participate in the CCP, integrating climate change mitigation into their decision-making processes The International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) runs this highly successful and widely recognized campaign either regionally or nationally in Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan, Latin America, Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the United States What can YOU do about climate change? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTfgNFz1DBM Reduce your “Carbon Footprint”: defined as the total set of greenhouse gas emissions caused by an individual, event, organisation, or product, expressed as carbon dioxide equivalent  Call For Action: Youth Taking Up The Climate Change Fight Greta Thunberg, Young Climate Activist, at the Opening of the Climate Action Summit 2019 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9KxE4Kv9A8 Youth marches for climate action draw millions around the world - 2019 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4T0lXVQrXc Young people sue government over climate change in Canada - 2019 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mTzCHrbWek