Lecture 3: The New World of Work (2021) PDF

Lecture 3 The New World of Work Career Management Rasool, H. (2021). New Forms of Work: Skills demand and supply in the changing world of work. Department of Employment & Labour & University of Pretoria: Enterpri...

Lecture 3 The New World of Work Career Management Rasool, H. (2021). New Forms of Work: Skills demand and supply in the changing world of work. Department of Employment & Labour & University of Pretoria: Enterprises  Profiling the South African labour market: Which jobs and skills will be affected by labour market shifts What policy measures will help maximise the benefits and minimise the negative effects of the changing world of work Outcomes of labour market shifts: Job losses (obsolete or redundant jobs) Current skills not matching future jobs New skills becoming obsolete  Due to the pandemic, SA has seen a significant decline in employment and impacted economy Employment declined by 1,326 million between 2019 and 2020, rising from 27.6% to 38% and further to 43,1% because of COVID High unemployment Women more likely than men to lose their jobs in the Low gender parity across sectors downturn and remain behind their male counterparts in obtaining employment High rate of youth unemployment 29,8% of youth are unemployment State committed to ensuring Technology, COVID-19, the that the supply of labour economy, climate change responds to the demands in and the future of work and the labour market through occupational change are key policy, legislature and drivers of skills demand and regulatory instruments supply  List of occupations currently in high demand: Digital economy Energy Infrastructure development Data science Web development Electrical engineering Toolmaking Crop analysis Agricultural science Trades Management and leadership Computers services Technical services Communication services Customer services COVID-19, Industry 4.0 and sustainability are reshaping labour markets Significant implications for nature of work and life Current trends include: Rise of unemployment Prevalence of remote working Growth of gig economy Growing demand for performance, role hybridisation Importance of skills over credentials Continuous bargaining for trade unions Learnability and skills transfer critical to survival in the market Sustainability focus Return of manufacturing and gender inquealities The above shows National Certificate (Vocational) and NATED enrolments by programmes. The rates for university qualifications in 2018 are provided in this graph. Sadly, this is not a marker for guaranteed employment despite growing numbers of university qualifications. The fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR or Industry 4.0) is the major disruptor of the economy and labour market. Technological advancements such as mobile connectivity, artificial intelligence, Big Data, the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, blockchain, cryptocurrencies, next-generation software, drone technology, wearable devices and machine learning are “changing the game”. New technologies are creating a massive disruption to jobs and occupations. New jobs and occupations are emerging, and existing jobs and occupations are “changing the game”. Technology is a prime mover in changing the nature and content of work. Old skills are becoming obsolete, and new skills gaps are emerging. New training programmes are required to equip employees for a changing business world. E.g., for students starting a four-year degree, half of what they learn in the first year will be outdated by their third year of study.  The 1st industrial revolution was steam The 2nd was electrification and mass production The 3rd was the advent of computerized technologies and the automation of physical labour such as manufacturing. The 4th industrial revolution is marked by advances in technology but most notably, the automation of cognitive labour. The illustrated graph tracks employment in South Africa from 2009 to 2020. The drastic decline in employment during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic is also evident in the graph. The illustrated graph shows employment by gender between 2010 and 2020. The illustrated graph shows employment by educational attainment between 2010 and 2020.  Between 2010 and 2020 the profile of the labour force per occupation has not shown any significant change. It implies that the labour force has not upgraded to higher segments or high value-added occupational categories. For example, the share of managers in the labour force increased by 0,3%, professionals 0,5% and technicians decreased by 2,2% over a decade. It also signals that the economy is not upgrading to higher value-added industries, where higher skills intensities are required. It is indicative of poor performance of the The illustrated graph shows the occupational profile of the labour economy. force with highest percentages seen in elementary occupation although elementary workers also experienced equally high job losses.  Political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal (PESTEL) forces drive change influencing labour supply and demand in the labour force. These forces influence the content and structure of work, jobs and occupations. They create pressures for organisational restructuring, business re-engineering and change in employment relationships. The content and structure of work, jobs and occupations, in turn, dictate the knowledge and skills requirements of employees.  Occupation Future of Technology change work Climate Economy COVID-19 change ▪ New tech and 4IR are changing the world of work ▪ 4IR is pivoted by cyber-physical systems, the internet of things, automation, digital transformation, robotics, artificial intelligence to name a few ▪ Tech advancements require upskilling and reskilling of the workforce ▪ New emerging occupations, skills and industries requiring new skill sets and creating new jobs ▪ On-the-job training and workplace-based training are effective as practical skills are often the best obtainable skills ▪ Other forms of learning such as micro-credentialling ▪ Increasing demand for the application of AI and automation in all sectors ▪ 4IR is transforming the nature of work, jobs and occupations ▪ Occupations changing in 1) upskilling, 2) de-skilling, 3) replacement of workers due to automation 4) and upskilling and deskilling in different areas of the same job ▪ Flexible labour supply was associated with low-skilled workers – now a trend towards hiring freelance workers ▪ Individuals undergoing job-transitions while others undergo job pivots (complete career change) ▪ Employers need to consider implementing upskilling and reskilling programmes ▪ The FOW is being shaped by the 4IR, automation, digitisation and even the COVID-19 pandemic. ▪ Automation is creeping into the WOW in various ways. People are being replaced by machines. ▪ Job losses and opportunities for reskilling and upskilling of the workforce. ▪ Tech such as robotics and digitisation have the potential to reduce human error, increase efficiency, improve the safety of processes and reduce costs in production. ▪ Digitisation can improve service delivery through customer experience. ▪ If SA seizes the opportunities being created by technology efficiently, and can use this to leverage productivity and innovation, significant economic growth can be driven. ▪ The novel COVID-19 has also significantly impacted the world of work, effecting changes in organisational structures, reliance on technology to perform tasks, remote working conditions, social distancing measures and business operational innovations. ▪ COVID has had an adverse effect on SA economy ▪ Unemployment rate at record high ▪ Developments afflicting SA economy include corruption, high fuel and transport prices, lack of business growth, high costs of doing business, high food inflation, high cost of data, monopolies restrictions on doing business and poor governance of state-owned entities and local municipalities ▪ Reduced business activities which translate to reduction in recruiting and retraining ▪ Workers require upskilling to equip to multi-task in an economy where retrenchments are on the rise – employees must adapt to performing more tasks  ▪ Climate change is devastating the globe ▪ In South Africa, changing weather patterns have affected rainfall patterns leading to water shortages. Water scarcity has also hindered economic activities and the livelihoods of people ▪ Shift to green energy solutions to mitigate effects of climate change ▪ Green skills to be developed across economies ▪ Gap between educational programmes and industry requirements to bee bridged through training on green industry regulations, applications, technologies and innovations This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND ▪ The COVID-19 pandemic has affected every aspect of human life. ▪ Borders were closed, travel restricted, and imports and exports adversely affected ▪ Increased unemployment levels ▪ Less funds available for training interventions due to unforeseen expenses and reallocations ▪ New health and safety measures necessitated distance learning or e-learning ▪ Firms forced o reprioritise training activities ▪ New and innovative methods of learning e.g., micro- credentialling and online learning becoming prominent The future of work is being shaped by 4IR, automation, digitisation and even the COVID-19 pandemic People are being replaced by machine automation New opportunities emerging resulting in the need for reskilling and upskilling the workforce Technologies such as robotics and digitisation have the potential to reduce human error, increase efficiency, improve the safety of processes and reduce costs in production Digitisation can improve service delivery through customer experience The opportunities being created by technology can be used to leverage productivity and innovation and drive significant economic growth ▪ Fi e l d -of-study mi sma tc h: The Organization for Economic Co - o pe ration (OECD)’s fie ld -of-study mismatc h indicators show the proportion of individuals who studied in one field but work in a n o t h e r. E. g. , a n i n d i v i d u a l studying history but wor ks as a statistician would be considered a mismatc hed individual ▪ Qualification mismatc h: The OECD also provides an indicator for qualification mismatc h whic h refers to individuals who are under- or overqualified resulting in individuals working in occupations that are under or over their educational attainment ▪ Considerable qualification mismatches have been identified in South Africa with statistics presented from 2016 in the graph provided. ▪ A high proportion of underqualified individuals in employment compared to the OECD The Department of Higher Education and Training publishes a List of Occupations in High Demand to help the post-school education and training sector plan to train people to enter the labour market with the requisite skills The DHET identifies occupations based on suitability to drive the National Development Plan (NDP), the New Growth Path (NGP) and the Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP) and other major government strategies This strategy helps the department identify ways to make the tertiary education system and post-school education more responsive to the needs of the economy The primary purpose of the list of OIHD is to inform planning in the PSET sector by: Signalling the need for the development of new qualifications Acting as a signpost for enrolment planning Informing career guidance for learners and job seekers An occupation is in high demand if - It is innovative It shows signs of employment growth The demand for the occupation is higher than the supply of skilled individuals entering the market The DHET produces a Qualitative Interview Report on Skills Development. The information is gathered by 21 SETAs and consolidated by the DHET. The 2020 report over of sub- sectors in the country and approximated industry experts were interviews. The top skills gaps identified by SETAs are provide alongside: Finance Accountant Finance manager / Chief financial officer Auditor Information technology Software developer Data scientist / statistician ICT manager ICT project manager Engineering / manufacturing Manufacturing operations / production manager Civil engineer Industrial engineer Engineering manager General SHEQ Training manager Supply chain and distribution manager Sales and marketing manager Corporate services manager ▪ SA struggles with acute chronic unemployment crisis ▪ Before COVID-19, the unemployment rate was 29.1% and expanded unemployment 38.7% (including discouraged work seekers) ▪ Since COVID-19, by end of 2020, unemployment rose to 32.5% and expanded unemployment to 43.1% and youth unemployment increased to precedented high levels ▪ Twice as many women than men lost their jobs since the pandemic; male unemployment was down 2% lower than pre-COVID levels in 2020 and female employment was down 8% ▪ Women make up 60% of the unemployed  Rise in unemployment Remote working is the new norm Full-time jobs will diminish, and the gig economy will grow Performance will be in demand Role hybridisation The COVID-19 pandemic, Industry 4.0 and sustainability Skilling will overtake credentialing are reshaping labour markets Continuous bargaining for trade unions and have significant Women will be disproportionately affected implications for the nature of work and life. Some of the Learnability and developing soft skills will be the goal to stay major trends include the relevant following: Skills transfer will take centre stage Focus on sustainability Return of manufacturing in response to future pandemics New jobs will be created More from public service expectations Considering the PESTEL forces — Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal — what do you think is the most significant driver of change in today’s workplace? How do you believe this force is influencing the structure of jobs and the skills required for future careers? In the context of the rapidly changing world of work, how do you personally perceive the impact of technological advancements, such as artificial intelligence and automation, on your career prospects and job security? Do you view these changes as opportunities for growth and innovation, or as challenges that threaten traditional employment pathways?