NUCE 304: Evaluative Methods for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Security PDF

NUCE 304: Evaluative Methods for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Security Responsible Nuclear Energy Program (RNEP) & 3S Framework Dr. Ahmed Alkaabi 1  RNEP Goals Contribute to public life & prosperity Support the Economy Sour...

NUCE 304: Evaluative Methods for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Security Responsible Nuclear Energy Program (RNEP) & 3S Framework Dr. Ahmed Alkaabi 1  RNEP Goals Contribute to public life & prosperity Support the Economy Source of electricity Jobs & income Advance industry Can drive other economic sectors But also … Minimize risk to the public, environment and infrastructure Nuclear Safety & Security Assure other countries of peaceful intent International Safeguards This course introduces technical foundations & strategic culture to manage risk 2  Elements of an RNEP International Context National Context National NE Program Discussion: What are some elements of a responsible nuclear energy program? What are important factors at the national and international level? Are these elements independent or are they related in some way? Are safety, security, and safeguards independent or are they the product of other pieces? 3  A RNEP Has Many Elements International Context National Context Commerce National NE Program Global Commerce Facilities Finance International Processes Society Finance Policies Governance Environment Materials Environment International Organizations Safeguards Infrastructure People 4  Challenges: Developing & Sustaining RNEP International Context National Context Commerce National NE Program Global Commerce Facilities Finance International Processes Society Finance Policies Governance Environment Materials Environment International Organizations Safeguards Infrastructure People How should these pieces be arranged to create public benefit while enabling safety, security, and safeguards? How to balance competing priorities? How to develop effective strategies to address problems? How to anticipate and prevent or mitigate unintended consequences? 5 ….  Tools for Developing & Sustaining an RNEP Critical Thinking provides a framework for consistent evaluation of A Systems Approach our thought process and provides a framework for an examination of understanding how underlying values, complexity arises from beliefs, and assumptions the interaction of system “Right Thing” elements. “Right Way” “Right Tool” “Right Time The Scientific Method is Scientific Individual Responsibilities: an application of critical Method “Right Thing” thinking to solving “Right Way” problems and testing “Right Tool” hypotheses “Right Time” This lecture will introduce these tools. We will then analyze an RNEP by using these tools 6  Review Questions 1. What are some goals of a Responsible Nuclear Energy Program? 2. What are some major elements of a Responsible Nuclear Energy Program? 3. What are some challenges in developing and sustaining a Responsible Nuclear Energy Program 1. How might we address these challenges in order to create public benefit while enabling safety, security, and safeguards? 2. How might we balance competing priorities? 3. How might we develop effective strategies to address problems? 4. How might we anticipate, prevent or mitigate unintended consequences? 4. What are some tools we can use to develop and sustain a Responsible Nuclear Energy Program? 1. Critical Thinking provides a framework for evaluating our thought process and examining our underlying values, beliefs, and assumptions 2. The Scientific Method applies critical thinking to solving problems and testing hypotheses. 3. A Systems Approach provides a framework for understanding how complexity arises from the interaction elements that make up a system. We will learn about these tools and how we can use them to address challenges of developing and sustaining a Responsible Nuclear Energy Program 7  Introduction Thinker Archetypes 1. Intuitive – Naïve Thinker 2. Critical Thinker 1. Calculating – Selfish Critical Thinker 2. Curious – Fair-minded Critical Thinker “Naïve” Intuitive Calculating  Critical Thinkers Thinker ➔ Curious Selfish Critical Fair Minded Critical 8  Thinking Archetypes “Naïve” Intuitive We will discuss each Archetype Quicker Easier & in more detail Narrowly Open- Focused Minded Harder & Slower Calculating  Critical Thinking ➔ Curious Selfish Critical Fair Minded Critical 9  Thinking Archetypes “Naïve” Intuition comes naturally Intuitive FAST We all employ all three types of thinking, depending on situation & need Quicker Easier & Calculation is Focused Curiosity is Impartial NARROW Narrowly Open- Focused Minded OPEN MINDED Harder & Slower Calculating Critical  Thinking CriticalTakes Time➔ Thinking & Energy Curious SLOW Selfish Critical Fair Minded Critical 10  Types of Thinkers Intuitive (Naïve) Thinker Common Sense, Intuition, Instinct – “Feels right” Impressionable Intuitive Thinking is generally fast … but – May believe too easily intuition can be wrong or may not work well for Gullible complex situations – May not question the message Lazy – May not bother to figure things out may just asks others a lot of work or takes too much time Cautious or Nervous – May believe that too much thinking brings trouble 11  Types of Thinkers Calculating (Selfish Critical) Thinker Narrowly Focused Selective Tends to believe only supporting views , ideas, or beliefs Tends to question only opposing views, ideas, or beliefs Thinks for selfish reasons To Gain advantage – Can be manipulative – Little consideration for others May not always be honest with others Reserving information or misleading to gain or maintain advantage Effective critical thinking skills … but with selfish intent 12  Types of Thinkers Fair-minded Critical Thinker Successfully managing Broadly focused The big picture a RNEP requires The greater need Fair-minded Critical Thinking Open but Questioning Attitude Consider alternative views Critically evaluates what is said, read, received Try to understand The situation Other people Generous Helpful to others: aims for the benefit of the group or whole Effective critical thinking skills … with altruistic intent 13  Fair-Minded Critical Thinking 1. Elements of Thought 2. Intellectual Standards 3. Intellectual Traits 14  Fair-Minded Critical Thinking 1. Elements of Thought 2. Intellectual Standards 3. Intellectual Traits 15  Elements of Thought 1. Purpose 2. Question or Issue Purpose 3. Information Implication Consequence Question Issue 4. Assumptions 5. Concepts Elements 6. Interpretations or Point of View Conclusion of Information Inferences Thought 7. Point of View or Conclusion Interpretation Inference Assumptions 8. Implication or Concepts Consequence 16  Elements of Thought PURPOSE The Goal or Reason Purpose What are we trying to achieve? Implication Question Consequence Issue Point of View Elements Information Conclusion of Thought Interpretation Assumptions Inference Concepts Some questions to ask: 1. What is the purpose of this lecture? 2. How is it relevant to my work? 3. Is it interesting? 4. Is there more? 17  Elements of Thought QUESTION or ISSUE What is the problem? Purpose Restate the question Be clear Implication Question Consequence Issue Begin to understand what is needed to solve it Point of View Elements Information Conclusion of Thought Interpretation Assumptions Inference Concepts Some questions to ask: 1. Is the question clear? 2. What question needs to be answered? 3. Should we be asking different questions? 18  Elements of Thought INFORMATION Gather facts, evidence Examine experiences Purpose Consult multiple sources Implication Consequence Question Issue Caution: information can be inaccurate Point of View Elements Information Some questions to ask Conclusion of Thought What information is needed to answer the question? Is the information relevant? Interpretation Assumptions Inference Is the information accurate? Concepts – How do we know? Classroom Question: What information did you gather before enrolling in NUCE 304 Course? 19  Elements of Thought ASSUMPTIONS Beliefs we take for granted Purpose Know & question your assumptions Implication Question Consequence Issue Point of View Elements Information Conclusion of Thought Some questions to ask Interpretation Are we assuming something that Assumptions Inference we should not? Concepts What assumptions lead us to this conclusion? Classroom Question: What assumptions did you make when you decided to enroll in NUCE 304 Course? 20  Elements of Thought CONCEPTS Ideas we use to understand Purpose What is going on and how to Implication Question act Consequence Issue Critical thinkers are self-aware Key ideas they use when thinking Point of View Conclusion Elements of Thought Information Some questions to ask Interpretation Assumptions Inference What idea comes into our minds when we hear certain words? Concepts ‘school,’ ‘friend,’ ‘peace,’ Classroom Question: What is your concept of a “Good Curriculum”? 21  Elements of Thought INTERPRETATIONS or INFERENCES Extrapolations based on concepts Purpose “If x is true, then Y is true” is an inference Implication Question Example: We infer that we can trust a Consequence Issue Friend Point of View Elements Information Conclusion of Thought Interpretation Assumptions Inference Concepts Some questions to ask Are there alternative inferences? Is the inference logical? Are any assumptions affecting our inferences? 22  Elements of Thought POINT OF VIEW or CONCLUSION Views or conclusions are based on Purpose information and inferences Multiple possible conclusions Implication Consequence Question Issue from the same information Point of View Elements Information Conclusion of Thought Interpretation Assumptions Inference Concepts Some questions to ask Do data support my conclusions? Are inferences consistent with the information? Are there alternative conclusions I might draw? 23  Elements of Thought IMPLICATIONS or CONSEQUENCES Our thinking or actions lead us to implications and consequences Purpose A decision, action, or conclusion may Implication Question impact other issues. Consequence Issue Point of Elements View Information of Thought Some questions to ask Conclusion What implications and consequences follow from our thought or action? Interpretatio n Assumptions Inference If we accept a line of reasoning, what Concepts implications and consequences are likely ? Classroom Question: What are some potential consequences of your participation in NUCE 304 Course? 24  Fair-Minded Critical Thinking 1. Elements of Thought 2. Intellectual Standards – Apply to Thought & Communication 3. Intellectual Traits 25  Fair-Minded Critical Thinking Intellectual Standards Clarity Elements of Thought Accuracy Purpose Precision Question/Issue Relevance Information Significance Assumptions Depth Concepts Breadth Inferences Logic Point of View Reasonableness Implications Completeness Applying all Intellectual Standards to each Element of Thought improves Understanding & Communication 26  Intellectual Standards Clarity Unambiguous, Lucid, Intelligible, Specific Understanding what is Communicated Lack of clarity can lead to and Communicating clearly misunderstanding and wasted time Confirm Restate – paraphrase Ask Alternative explanations – Reframe the question When communicating your thoughts: Examples Be specific Use plain language Avoid Jargon Try for simple explanations 27  Intellectual Standards Accuracy Factual representation of reality – The Truth Some questions to help assess accuracy: Maintain a questioning – Do I know what I hear or read is true? attitude How do I know what others say is true? How do I know what I read on the internet is true? – How can I find out for myself if something is true? – How to verify? – Can we independently test it? How? Also … be accurate when you communicate – Your audience might ask those same questions! These concepts will come up again when we discuss the Scientific Method 28  Intellectual Standards Precision Exact, Well defined, Strict meaning Imprecision can Related to clarity result in But we can be precise without being clear ambiguity and a lack of clarity If something seems imprecise… Seek more information Explain or define terms Be precise when communicating your thoughts Use well-defined terms Define special terms, acronyms, jargon Such specialized language may be precise … but may be understood by only a few Know your audience! 29  Intellectual Standards Relevancy Staying on track! Relevancy can require Something is relevant when it applies to … discipline and – The problem being solved focus – The question being answered – The subject being talked or written about Some questions to help ascertain relevancy: – How does the information relate to the problem or the question? – How does what I hear relate to what we are talking about? – How does the information relate to the purpose? 30  Intellectual Standards Depth Depth provides detailed Understanding details & complexities understanding and “in the weeds” enhances the credibility of our Does the question or problem have conclusions multiple issues, factors, or components? How well is each known? Do we account for, and understand, these factors? Are they all relevant & significant? Depth of understanding allows us to better explain a multi- faceted problem or answer a complex question 31  Intellectual Standards Breadth Breadth of Comprehensive Scope or Range knowledge allows Understanding related issues for a more May not be obvious Balanced Solution Considering alternative views Does the question or problem have far-reaching (or hidden) consequences? Can other problems or questions have an impact? How? By thinking broadly, we can see the wider implications of a problem or question 32  Intellectual Standards Logic Reasoning, Judgment, Rationality Logic is the rational basis upon which Employ reason to support conclusions conclusions rest Do conclusions follow naturally from the information? Does an argument make sense? Is it sound? Are there gaps in reasoning? – “Leaps of Faith” Some signs of poor Logic: – Appeals to trust, popular opinion, authority – Tautology (circularity), distortion, oversimplification – Ad hominem attacks We will examine reasoning further when we discuss The Scientific Method 33  Intellectual Standards Significance Significance can help to rank Importance, Impact, Consequence issues, solutions, Implies a relative ranking or status information, & observations Things can be more or less significant Unequal bearing on the question or problem Ask if and how something is significant – Does it affect or impact the question or problem? – How? – Does ignoring it change how we address the problem? – Does it help us solve the problem? Answer the question? Knowing something’s (relative) significance allows us to focus on what is most likely to help us achieve our goal 34  Intellectual Standards Fairness Impartiality, Objectivity, Fair-mindedness Fairness is the ethical Weigh equivalent viewpoints equally foundation that Consider alternatives supports our argument Are conclusions supported by evidence? – Be aware of underlying beliefs, assumptions, prejudices Are there selfish motives? – Are we considering the greater good? Are arguments soundly based in fact? – Arguments for and against a position should rely on data, impartial information, and relevant facts Fair-Minded Critical Thinking is grounded in Fairness 35  Intellectual Standards Reasonableness & Completeness Reasonableness & Rationality, soundness, Inclusivity Completeness round out a sound and Sound reasons for Including or excluding convincing argument information: Relevance, significance, logic, etc. Are we omitting data contrary to our viewpoint? Why? – Don’t let our assumptions or prejudices adversely affect our judgment 36  Fair-Minded Critical Thinking 1. Elements of Thought 2. Intellectual Standards 3. Intellectual Traits 37  Personal Intellectual Traits Integrity Honesty & Respect for others Humility Modest & not arrogant Reason Confidence in Logic, Evidence, Facts Perseverance Diligent & Focused Fair Minded Objective, Impartial & Unbiased Courage Conviction (without arrogance) Empathy Understanding others Independent Self-reliant These traits are evident in Fair-minded Critical Thinkers 38  What is The Scientific Method? The Scientific Method is a body of techniques used for … Investigating phenomena Acquiring new knowledge Revisiting previous knowledge 39  The Scientific Method The Scientific Method relies on Evidence Empirical & Measurable Systematic observation, measurement, experiment and Formulation, testing, & modification of hypotheses ✓ Subject to principles of reasoning Apply Critical Thinking Skills 40  The Scientific Method How to Start? Clearly state the problem Clarity – Is this an important or critical problem? Significance Can the problem be solved? Is the issue focused enough to allow a manageable approach? Precision Are interactions with other issues being considered? Breadth "The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution.“ -- Bertrand Russell 41  The Scientific Method Hypothesis A testable explanation for observations and questions about the physical universe. – A hypothesis makes a prediction that can be tested Experiment, observation or measurement The ability to test a hypothesis is fundamental to The Scientific Method 42  The Scientific Method How to Develop a Hypothesis? A hypothesis is developed after researching the subject – “Educated Guess” Develop an understanding of the underlying issues – Educate yourself by learning about existing information on the topic – Background research Hypothesis is a proposal – … that answers the question The key is to educate – … for a solution to the problem oneself first. – That can be tested It makes a prediction Observation, measurement, or experiment tests the hypothesis 43  The Scientific Method What is Known? Ask a Question Test the Make a Prediction hypothesis State a Hypothesis Collect Data / Do a Study Gather Information (Experiment) Do data Revise the Analyze the Results support hypothesis the hypothesis? (if necessary) Reach a Conclusion 44  Remember: The Elements of Thought 1. Purpose 2. Question or Issue Purpose 3. Information Implication Consequence Question Issue 4. Assumptions 5. Concepts Elements 6. Interpretations or Point of View Conclusion of Information Inferences Thought 7. Point of View or Conclusion Interpretation Inference Assumptions 8. Implication or Concepts Consequence 45  The Scientific Method & Critical Thinking 1. Ask a question or state Purpose the problem Question or Issue 2. State a Hypothesis – Propose an explanation Information Testable! Assumptions 3. Gather information or Concepts data – Experiment or Study Interpretations or 4. Analyze the Inferences information Point of View or 5. Reach a Conclusion Conclusion 6. Re-examine the Implication or Hypothesis Consequence – Revise if necessary 46  The Scientific Method & Critical Thinking Examining Information or Data Analysis an explanation of the whole is derived from explanations of its parts. Synthesis something to be explained is viewed as part of a larger system and is explained in terms of its role in that larger system. Analysis & Synthesis are complementary. However, synthesis can provide understanding unobtainable through analysis, particularly of collective phenomena. We will return to these concepts when we examine Systems 47  The Scientific Method Deductive Reasoning Inductive Reasoning Draw a specific (narrow) Use specific instances to conclusion from a broad infer a broader principle concept – Analogy – Categorical – Causation – Hypothetical – Generalization – Disjunctive – Hypothesis Deductive Reasoning General Special Principle Case Inductive Reasoning 48  The Scientific Method & Critical Thinking Important: We are not trying to prove (or disprove) the hypothesis – Be objective: seek the real answer to the hypothesis (based on data) Accuracy Gather information that is relevant to the problem or question Identify cause and effect – Independent Variables – Dependent Variables A valid experiment is repeatable – Precision 49  Scientific Method: Analyze the Test Results Interpret, evaluate, and assess your information Show the results of the research – Organize and display the results Use Tables, Charts, and Graphs Use all relevant observations. Explain discrepancies if possible. – Results commonly raise additional questions Might lead to additional research. 50