Climate Change Exam #4 PDF - Iowa State University

Reminders Assignment #9 on Renewable Energy due this Wednesday This is the last week for Packback AND Extra Credit (due by Sunday, none accepted next week)  Exam #4 https://www.testcenter.iastate.edu/finals-week/...

Reminders Assignment #9 on Renewable Energy due this Wednesday This is the last week for Packback AND Extra Credit (due by Sunday, none accepted next week)  Exam #4 https://www.testcenter.iastate.edu/finals-week/ Walk-In Testing: No appointments needed Carver 0060, Gilman 2552, and Hixson-Lied 2242 Carver 250, offers limited appointments. Cannot be cancelled WALK-IN SERVICE will be Saturday, Dec 14: Noon to 6 PM used during Final Exams Sunday, Dec 15: Noon to 10 PM PLAN AHEAD: Lines will be longer than they were during the regular semester Monday, Dec 16: 8 AM to 10 PM ** Weekend dates are typically less busy Tuesday, Dec 17: 8 AM to 10 PM ** Monday and Tuesday mornings are typically less busy than the afternoons ** - Gilman 2272 will be also be open If using the Exam Accommodations Center, Students must schedule all finals by May 3 at 5 pm Global Climate Change  Reminder Conventional air pollutants Greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO CO2 NOx Methane (CH4) SOx Nitrous oxide (N2O) VOCs Particulates https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases https://www.kcci.com/article/noaa-atmospheric-methane-climate-related-feedback- loop/39697747?fbclid=IwAR3NqSpdCWoISTLbtDJH41erdbGEdcHZAvqbjZRPi9d2SsFQgo-coU7tUiE# Today: Global climate change Trend How do scientists know? Human caused Effects What to do? https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/  https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/ Mandated by Congress. Released every 4 or 5 years. https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/ 2018 IPCC Special Report on warming of 1.5°C (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit)  Now down to only 6 years https://www.vox.com/2018/10/8/1794 8832/climate-change-global-warming- un-ipcc-report https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/07/world/climate-change-new-ipcc-report-wxc/index.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/08/climate-world-surpasses-key-warming-threshold-across-an-entire- year.html?fbclid=IwAR3E2gDsCpRGvf24lByN4Ls-N2iMpl6K5MjCVSi6cM38A2iEHWqbzXYhhNw IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change a group of 1,300 independent scientific experts from countries all over the world under the auspices of the United Nations  https://www.ipcc.ch/ IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), completed in 2022. The IPCC -- a United Nations body -- had three working groups: Working Group I, deals with the physical wisdom base of climate change; Aug 2021 Working Group II, is involved with impacts, adaption and vulnerability; Feb 2022 Working Group III, is concerned with the mitigation of climate change; April 2022 2023 Synthesis report – March 20, 2023 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/  The 20 hottest years have occurred over how many years? https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/ (National Climatic Data Center) 23 of the last 24 years are the warmest years on record for the globe The last 10 years = hottest 10 2023 2023 Earth's warmest year on record 2024? https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/2024-track-be-hottest-year-record-warming-temporarily-hits- 15degc#:~:text=Highlights-,Temperature,2023%2C%20the%20current%20warmest%20year.  Global Warming by Country and Region 1850-2020 – YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pamUmYJUqOg NASA Global Warming from 1880 to 2022 (https://www.youtube.com/@nasaclimatechange) Cool animations Temp Outside today: high of 24°, low of 11° ~15° below average What sort of evidence? The science explained in these and other reports is clear: Climate change is not proved or disproved by the extreme weather of one day or a week; it's demonstrated by long-term trends. Carbon Cycle Atmospheric CO2 levels measured by NOAA at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, since 1958. https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/  Industrial Revolution Year https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/history.html https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/1/ Air temperature rising Ocean temperature rising Sea level rising https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/1/  Lyman Glacier – North Cascades (Washington State) Glaciers retreating Between the years 1890 and 2008, Lyman Glacier has retreated 1,310 m (4,300 ft) and lost 86 percent of its area https://glaciers.nichols.edu/bill/ Glacier National Park https://video.nationalgeographic. com/video/news/00000150-870f- d9fe-abf5-af3f23060000 https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/ https://www.independent.com/2023/04/20/its-up-to- us/?fbclid=IwAR1AxoT4rxIqdQ1tbuWudas33gQAjWMwk6IhbzcBUa9blhGChXRcvFxVguQ Here is a map showing the temperature increases that have occurred in the United States between 1970 and 2020. Surface Temperature Anomaly (0C) https://www.npr.org/2022/08/11/1116608415/the-arctic-is- heating-up-nearly-four-times-faster-than-the-rest-of-earth-study- Arctic f?fbclid=IwAR094lBH8SAWdfvuBLUd4Yd5csYUiXgBX2mmlgdGleM4 RjNolH2pxCwtUz8 Faster & greater temp change Accelerating: 4x the 1990s, 17 km/ yr 30 years earlier than predicted http://www.egu.eu/news/100/greenlands-fastest-glacier-reaches- record-speeds/  Polar Bears USGS Alaska Science Center: 1980s cub survival >80% 2005/06 cub survival ~40% Polar bears co-evolved with ice....  https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/ Mandated by Congress. Released every 4 or 5 years. Newest version just came out!  U.S. National Climate Assessment Mandated by Congress. Released every 4 or 5 years. Comes from the US Global Change Research Program, a team of 13 federal agencies Put together with the help of 1,000 people, including 300 leading scientists, roughly half from outside the government Fourth Assessment: Two volumes. Vol 1 was released in November 2017, Vol II in 2018. Fifth Assessment came out Nov 2023 Fourth, Volume 1: https://science2017.globalchange.gov/  the difference between the average for present-day (1986–2016) and the average for the first half of the last century (1901–1960) >95% of the land surface of the contiguous US had an increase in annual average temp. In contrast, only small parts of the Southeast and Southern Great Plains experienced cooling. "The global average temperature is much higher and is rising more rapidly than anything modern civilization has experienced, and this warming trend can only be explained by human activities," David Easterling, director of the Technical Support Unit at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/ Global Precipitation changes Rainfall Drought Farmers will face extremely tough times. The quality and quantity of their crops will decline across the country due to higher temperatures, drought and flooding. In parts of the Midwest, farms will be able to produce less than 75% of the corn they produce today, and the southern part of the region could lose more than 25% of its soybean yield. Heat stress could cause average dairy production to fall between 0.60% and 1.35% over the next 12 years -- having already cost the industry $1.2 billion from heat stress in 2010.  Fifth National Climate Assessment Final version came out Nov 15, 2023 https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/ https://www.npr.org/2023/11/14/12 06506962/climate-change-affects- your-life-in-3-big-ways-a-new-report- warns Fifth National Climate Assessment https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/  Fifth National Climate Assessment Key findings: The US is warming faster than the global average Climate disasters are getting worse “In the 1980s, the country experienced on average one (inflation-adjusted) billion-dollar [extreme weather] event every four months,” the draft report states. “Now, there is one every three weeks, on average.” It hits our most vulnerable the hardest “cycle of worsening inequality,”; “The effects of climate change are felt most strongly by communities that are already overburdened, including Indigenous peoples, people of color, and low-income communities,” Historical discriminatory policies such as redlining and displacement of Indigenous peoples forced communities of color into the least-valuable, often low-lying areas that are now more vulnerable to flooding, extreme heat, and air pollution from fossil fuel facilities and industry.” The things Americans value most are at risk It’s exacerbating the water crisis It’s playing a role in migration and economic woes What are the likely consequences of a 2.0 to ° 4.0 C global warming? More days above 90° F Fewer days below 32 °F Changes in rainfall patterns More frequent and intense drought Wildfires More variable and unpredictable weather Storms, flooding, drought, extreme temps (hot and cold) Climate change does not mean that every location on the planet will be warmer at every point in time. It means average annual global temps are increasing… which also changes weather patterns, jet streams, ocean currents, etc.… Variable (stochastic) & intense weather Sea Level rise https://www.npr.org/2024/10/09/nx-s1- 5144216/climate-change-hurricane- helene?fbclid=IwY2xjawG6znNleHRuA2FlbQIxM AABHQgOcH7NK9FxeJAQygwt8F35yfq8LzzD5TI0 mUQovFetFd7jgIPt16Xazw_aem_VLVt7ztWO3qp NBTkR6cHzg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xE0KtLy5j8w https://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/climate-time-machine https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/climate/sea-level-rise-east-coast-sinking-land- flooding.html?fbclid=IwAR1Wylti1ZT4AysWwFlbA6yjfGoh0H2KUAwN3htzxfLrfP6IbJ1ygmkKTmw https://www.marketplace.org/2017/11/14/sustainability/island-nations-prepare-looming-future-without-land  Impacts on our health Higher temperatures will also kill more people, the report says. The Midwest alone, which is predicted to have the largest increase in extreme temperature, will see an additional 2,000 premature deaths per year by 2090. There will be more mosquito- and tickborne diseases like Zika, dengue and chikungunya. West Nile cases are expected to more than double by 2050 due to increasing temperatures. Expect asthma and allergies to be worse due to climate change. People will be exposed to more foodborne and waterborne diseases. Particularly vulnerable to higher temperatures in the summer, children, the elderly, the poor and communities of color will be at a much greater risk for illness and death. https://who13.com/news/new-mosquito-now-calling-iowa-home-thanks-to-climate-change/ Projections for climate change in Iowa: less stable/ less predictable weather increased temperatures (especially in winter and during nighttime) By 2050, the number of days in which Iowa experiences 90-degree temperatures will nearly triple, jumping from 23 days to 67. increased precipitation, higher frequency of heavy rains more extreme weather events (floods, heat waves, tornadoes etc.) deteriorating air and water quality; higher risks of asthma, allergies, lung and heart diseases, heat-related illnesses spread of infectious diseases increase in runoff and soil erosion; challenges with manure application significant decrease in corn and soybean production- yields could be slashed decrease in livestock productivity spread of pests/invasive species changes in wildlife habitat; changes in animal migration patterns deterioration of infrastructure and buildings What to do about it? Deep and rapid reductions of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases Governments around the world must take "rapid, far- reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society" to avoid disastrous levels of global warming  Paris Climate Accord, 2015 LA Times, 11-29-15 197 countries agreed to the goal of holding global temperatures "well below" 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees C.  Paris accord signed under Obama administration Trump admin. announced their intent to withdraw from the agreement, which would leave the US as the only county on Earth outside the accord Early 2021, Biden admin. announced the US was re-joining the accord  IPCC Special Report on warming of 1.5°C To limit global warming to 1.5 degree C is "possible within the laws of chemistry and physics," said Jim Skea, co-chair of IPCC Working Group III. "But doing so would require unprecedented changes." Global net emissions of carbon dioxide need to fall by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach "net zero" around 2050 in order to keep the warming around 1.5 degrees C. The window on keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees C is closing rapidly and the current emissions pledges made by signatories to the Paris Agreement do not add up to achieving that goal (AND most countries are not even meeting those pledged targets) (See the United Nations Environnent Programme (UNEP) 2021 Emissions Gap Report) Instead of falling by 45%, emissions are expected to rise almost 14% over the next 8 years.  https://qz.com/1755954/un-climate-report-says-warming-past-1-5c-is-likely/ https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/04/un-ipcc-1-5-degree-report-global-warming/629486/?fbclid=IwAR3BnVzL_e9XH6s_tEIi4ffyetCcW_EqkS_9kg_dECg8dZNNKvUTaa9ktFQ  https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/world-emissions-paris-climate-targets-un-report-rcna54044 Oct. 26, 2022 Limiting warming to 1.5°C and 2°C involves rapid, deep and in most cases immediate greenhouse gas emission reductions 3.2°C = 5.76°F ! The goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or at most to 2 degrees Celsius. To do it, the US needs to reach “net-zero” carbon emissions by about 2050, which will require a total clean energy transformation, and will likely require technology to suck our previous planet- warming emissions back out of the atmosphere. For the United States to reach net-zero by 2050, the country’s emissions need to fall by a whopping 6% per year. US emissions fell just 12% over the course of nearly two Since 1990, gross U.S. greenhouse gas emissions have decades between 2007 and 2019. decreased by only 7% Drop in 2020 due to Covid shutdowns, but #s came back up in 2021 What needs to change? Switch to 100% renewable energy The topic of our next 2 lectures (no more fossil fuels OR a way to capture and sequester all emissions) Eat less meat Have fewer children Limit per capita consumerism Carbon capture and storage? Mitigation and adaptation – and funding to help less-developed countries and at-risk communities do this https://theconversation.com/from-a-us-300-billion-climate-finance- deal-to-global-carbon-trading-heres-what-was-and-wasnt-achieved-at- the-cop29-climate-talks- 243697?fbclid=IwY2xjawG6zyRleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHXK26MQ1ikBBvaa airMBerxewOz187QDwF2TaO8O7M8AAUQBfXm263HJNg_aem_Ob7M M0jJnMqDHePYcTf65g https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance- reporting/wealthy-countries-back-raising-cop29-climate-deal-300- billion-sources-say-2024-11- 23/?fbclid=IwY2xjawG6z4lleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHXK26MQ1ikBBvaaair MBerxewOz187QDwF2TaO8O7M8AAUQBfXm263HJNg_aem_Ob7MM 0jJnMqDHePYcTf65g https://www.npr.org/2021/10/27/1047583610/once-again- the-u-s-has-failed-to-take-sweeping-climate-action-heres-why Learning about climate http://www.climatecentral.org/ http://www.realclimate.org http://www.climatepolicy.org/  More info NOAA.gov National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) NCAR usclimatenetwork.org Goddard Institute climate.nasa.gov giss.nasa.gov nsidc.org IPCC (ipcc.ch)