Reasoning Fallacies PDF

## Reasoning Fallacies Pt 1 & 2 ### Thinking Fast and Slow - **Hindsight bias:** We overestimate the probability that we would have accorded to the occurrence of a certain event after the event occurred. - **Outcome bias:** We judge a decision retroactively based on its result, not the evidence in...

## Reasoning Fallacies Pt 1 & 2 ### Thinking Fast and Slow - **Hindsight bias:** We overestimate the probability that we would have accorded to the occurrence of a certain event after the event occurred. - **Outcome bias:** We judge a decision retroactively based on its result, not the evidence initially available. - **Bandwagon effect:** We adopt beliefs too quickly when evidence initially comes from people in a group and blindly follow the behavior of the group. - **Blind Spot bias:** We accept the validity of an argument simply because the conclusion sounds plausible and/or we agree with the conclusion. - **Endowment effect:** We accept the validity of an argument simply because we own it. - **Sunk Cost Fallacy:** Taking into account incurred and non-recoverable costs in deciding whether to continue with an activity or project. ### Reasoning Fallacies Pt 2 - **Anchoring bias:** A given piece of information can strongly influence our estimates. - **Availability bias:** We overestimate the likelihood that something occurs simply because we can easily recall or imagine it. - **Survivorship bias:** When estimating the likelihood of something occurring, we concentrate on previous cases that passed and fail to take into account how the evidence available to us was selected. - **Selection bias:** When estimating the likelihood that something occurs, we fail to take into account how the evidence available to us was selected. - **Dunning-Kruger effect:** The tendency of people to overestimate their knowledge of something, especially the tendency of experts to underestimate their knowledge of something. ## Cognitive Science of Reasoning Fallacies - **System 1:** Fast, autonomic, intuition-based heuristics, shared with other animals. - **System 2:** Slow, effortful, reflection-based, more unique to humans. - **The argumentative theory of reason** (- winning an argument) - **The mismatch** (feeling, emotion, simplest to the mostly complex sensations) - **False positive** (snake is just wind, but better believe it's a snake) - **False negative** (survival: better to think the wind is a snake) ### Evolutionary Theory of Cognition - **Selection:** Random genetic mutation is the driving factor of evolution. - **Heredity** (Perinnöllisyys) - **Evolutionary theory of cognition:** Explaining our systemic mistakes. - **Natural Selection:** Evolutionary driving factor of why we tend to discern an agent in certain events too quickly. - **Hyperactive agency detection:** Simple rules of thumb produce good results but can be misleading. - **Cognitive artefacts:** Cognitive artefacts protect us against intuitive reasoning errors. - **Ingroup/outgroup bias:** We tend to favor those who are similar to us. ## Steps Towards CT - **Intuitions:** - **Innate:** Built-in intuitions. - **Acquired:** Intuitions from experience. - **Emotions:** Our emotions can give us a sense of what is right and wrong and can also influence our thinking. - **Confirmation bias:** We tend to seek out information that confirms our existing beliefs and to avoid information that challenges them. - **Cognitive dissonance:** The feeling we get when we have two conflicting beliefs. - **The wisdom of crowds:** The idea that the crowd is better at a task than any individual. - **Hyperactive agency detection:** The tendency for humans to see agents (or intentions) in natural phenomena. - **The myth of the rational homo economicus:** The belief that people are always rational in their decision-making. - **Behavioral Economics:** The study of how people's actual behavior deviates from the predictions of rational economic models. - **The cognitive sciences:** The study of how people think, learn, and make decisions. - **Genetically anchored reasoning processes:** The idea that some of our reasoning processes are hardwired into our brains. ## Reasoning Fallacies Pt 1 ### Rules of Thumb - **Cognitive illusions:** We cannot unsee the illusion. - **Stereotyping:** Judging the probability of an event by comparing its similarity to a representative heuristic. - **The representativeness heuristic:** Expecting certain groups to have certain characteristics. - **Exponential reasoning error:** We underestimate exponential growth because we are used to linear growth. - **The base rate fallacy:** Ignoring the base rate when estimating probabilities. - **The conjunction fallacy:** Given two claims, is never more probable than the claim alone. - **Hume's Maxim:** We should not accept a belief by testimony if it's more likely that the testifier is mistaken. - **A belief is justified if it was produced by a process that is generally reliable in getting to the truth**. ## Irrational Thought - **Hyperactive pattern detection:** We see causal connections that aren't there. - **Craving causal relations:** The human tendency to find causal relations, even when they don't exist. - **Conspiracy theories:** Beliefs in secret plots or conspiracies that are not supported by evidence. - **Detecting randomness and patterns:** The human tendency to see patterns in random data. - **The hot hand fallacy:** The belief that a person who has been successful at something is more likely to be successful in the future. - **Moving Targets:** When a theory is challenged with evidence, believers try to immunize it from the possibility of error. - **The Gambler's Fallacy:** The belief that past events affect future events(expecting the opposite result to what you observed). ### Pseudo-Scientific Theories - **The problem of demarcation:** How do you distinguish between science and non-science? - **Karl Popper's falsificationism:** Only theories that can be falsified are scientific. - **Falsifying theories, not confirming them.** - **The demarcation criterion:** Only theories that can be falsified are considered scientific. - **The problem of induction:** How can we justify inductive reasoning? - **Popper's falsificationalism:** The idea that scientific theories are falsified, not confirmed. ## The Importance of CT - **The escalator effect:** The idea that our reasoning can influence our morality. - **Moral rationalism:** The view that reason should guide our moral decisions. - **Moral sentimentalism:** The view that feelings are the primary source of our morality. - **Pascal's wager:** The argument that it is rational to believe in God, even if we can't prove His existence. ## Philosophy of Science - **The Scientific Revolution:** The movement that began in the 16th century and led to the development of modern science. - **The Geocentric Model:** The belief that the Earth is the center of the universe. - **The Mechanization of the World Picture:** The idea that the universe is like a machine and can be understood through the laws of physics. - **Francis Bacon:** One of the founders of modern science. - **Isaac Newton:** One of the most influential scientists of all time. - **The problem of demarcation:** How do we distinguish between science and non-science? - **Wilhem Dilthey:** German philosopher who argued that human sciences should be understood through "verstehen" (understanding) - **Meta-science:** The study of the practice of science, as well as its history and philosophy. - **Verstehen:** To understand a particular object. - **Erklären:** To explain a particular object. ## The Logic of Science - **Science as the most rational standard:** Science is the most reliable way to gain knowledge about the world. - **Different paradigms are incommensurable:** Different scientific paradigms cannot be directly compared. - **Normal Science:** Science conducted within the framework of an established paradigm. - **Revolutionary Science:** Scientific revolutions occur when a new paradigm replaces an old one. - **Scientific anomalies:** Observations that cannot be explained by the current paradigm. - **Paradigm shift:** The process of replacing one paradigm with another. - **Thomas Kuhn:** One of the most influential philosophers of science. - **Methodological anarchism:** The idea that any method can be used in science. - **Paul Feyerabend:** One of the most controversial philosophers of science. ## Causation - **Causal reasoning:** The process of figuring out which events cause other events and the relationship between them and their probabilistic relations. - **Causation:** Something bringing about an effect. - **The Simpsons Paradox:** If two events A and B are positively correlated, A causes B, or they share a common cause. - **Common Cause Principle:** A common cause is needed for A and B (A and B are correlated). - **Confounding Factor:** A hidden, non-apparent common cause. - **Spurious correlation:** A correlation between A and B which disappears given a common cause. - **Screening off:** The disappearance of a correlation between A and B given a common cause C. - **Conditional independence:** Given C, adding C does not change our mind about A. ## Inductive Reasoning - **Inductive Reasoning:** The process of making generalizations from specific observations and applying mathematical inductive ways to update our beliefs, given evidence. - **Bayes' Theorem:** A mathematical formula used to calculate the probability of an event given a prior belief. - **The best explanation:** The most likely explanation for a given phenomenon. - **Probability Theory:** The study of randomness and likelihood.