Epidemiology 2 PDF

Measurements in epidemiology Every component of a study e.g. a disease, an exposure, an event, a condition must be defined and measured. These measures are used in assessment of health problems in the community, that will aid in planning and evaluation of the effective health programs for disease co...

Measurements in epidemiology Every component of a study e.g. a disease, an exposure, an event, a condition must be defined and measured. These measures are used in assessment of health problems in the community, that will aid in planning and evaluation of the effective health programs for disease control and prevention. Types of measurements we construct depend upon: 1. the purpose of the measure 2. the nature of the data available to us. Certain tools are used for this purpose. Such as: Rates, ratios and proportion.  N RATE Rate = ‫ ــــــــــــ‬x K D N is numerator =no. of events occurring during a period of time D is denominator =no. of population at risk of developing that event K= round no. e.g. 100,1000,10000 …etc according to size of numerator. Were N is part of D. e.g. crude death rate in an area=15per 1000 population in 2000 in an area.  N RATIO Ratio = ‫ـــــــــــــ‬ D N= no. of persons with an event D= no. of persons with other event. Were N is not part of D. e.g. male to female ratio in a given disease is 3:1  N PROPORTION Proportion = ‫ــــــــــــ‬ D N is part of D usually expressed in %. e.g. proportion of deaths due to ischemic heart disease among all deaths in an area in 2000 is 25% These tools could be used for diseases or deaths or births or any health related problem. Population: An aggregation or group of individuals defined by a set of common characteristics.  Source of data Medical and hospital records Physicians’ records Before medical care information are obtained from the patient using a questionnaire or an interview. If the patient cannot provide this information, we may obtain it from a family member or someone else who is familiar with the patient’s health status. a  Others; records of health insurers The source of data clearly influences the calculated rates; For example, hospital records will not include data about patients who obtained care only in physicians’ offices. Measuring the frequency of occurrence of a certain disease necessitate the identification of the sources of the cases and determine how the cases were identified. On comparing rates with other populations we must take into consideration the characteristics of the sources from which the data were obtained. A. Morbidity: Morbid means disease. Morbidity is an important part of community health. It gives us idea about disease status in that community. INCIDENCE: It is the most important measure of morbidity. It is the occurrence of an event or a characteristic over a period of time. No. of new events occurring during a period of time Incidence rate = ‫ ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ‬x 1000 Total population at risk of getting that event Population should be free of disease at beginning of study.. A measure of NEW events therefore it’s a measure of RISK of disease but must be for a specific time period.. Everyone in denominator must have the potential to be part of the numerator. Two main types:. CUMULATIVE INCIDENCE: incidence calculated using a period of time during which ALL the individuals in the population are at risk for the outcome. DENSITY INCIDENCE: NO. of new events occurring during a period of time per number of years persons exposed to risk of that event. Person time denominator is used mostly in occupational medicine. Uses Of Incidence:. Describes the rate of diseases occurrence overtime. Assess patient survival from diseases. Compare the risk of disease between two or more populations  e.g. a study examined the occurrence of TB in a district. A total of 10000 persons who have no TB were followed for 1year.it was seen that 15 persons developed the disease in that period. The new cases of TB in that year Incidence rate of TB = ‫ ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ‬x 1000 in the village Total persons at risk of having TB 15 The incidence rate = ‫ ـــــــــــــــ‬x 1000 = 1.5 cases of TB per 1000 10000 Population in that year  Measures of Morbidity;Incidence Rate Measures of Morbidity; Incidence Rate The critical element in defining incidence rate is NEW cases of disease. Incidence rate is a measure of events. The disease is identified in person who develops the disease and did not have the disease previously. Because the incidence rate is measure of events (i.e,transition from a non-diseased to diseased state),the incidence rate is measure of risk. This risk can be looked at in any population group,such as particular age group, males or females etc…  Measures of Morbidity; Incidence Rate The denominator of an incidence rate represents the number of people who are at risk for developing the disease. Any individual who is included in the denominator must have the potential to become part of the group that is counted in the numerator. E.g.;if we are calculating incidence of uterine cancer, the denominator must include only women, Although this point seems obvious, it is not always so clear. Note that: Because incidence rate is a measure of the rate at which healthy people develop a disease during a specific time period, so it is a statement of probability. Since the incidence rates are affected by any factor that affects the development of a disease, they can be used to detect the etiologic factors. Time is an integral part of incidence. If it is not mentioned it will be no more than a rate, it will be a proportion. The population at risk should be susceptible and exposed to the disease. The exposed people should not be added to D. The population at risk should be free of the disease at beginning of time of study. Identifying new cases in order to calculate the incidence Identifying new cases in order to calculate incidence In certain situations it may be possible to monitor an entire population overtime with tests that can detect newly developed cases of disease. However, often this is not possible and instead population is identified and screened for the disease at baseline. Those who do not have the disease at baseline are followed for the specified time. They are then rescreened to see if they have developed the disease of interest. PREVALENCE: It is the measure of a burden of a disease in community. It’s the presence of an event or characteristic at a point of time in a population. No. of new and old events occurring at a point of time Prevalence rate = ‫ ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ‬x 1000 Total population at risk of getting that event Uses Of Prevalence: 1. Describes the burden of a disease a community. 2. Define the rate of clinical characteristics in subjects with specified diseases. 3. Estimates the probability of having a disease given the result of a diagnostic test result. A prevalence rate: is the presence of the disease in the community whether old or new cases in defined population. It's not a measure of risk of disease, and not useful in identifying the cause of disease.  Prevalence Prevalence can be viewed as snapshot or slice through the population at a point in time Cannot determine when the disease developed (i.e. Duration of the disease is not considered) The numerator of prevalence includes a mix of people with different durations of disease, so it is not a measure of risk  Prevalence Examples In a population of 1000 there are two cases of malaria: ✓p = 2/1000 = 0.002 or 0.2%. In a population of 10,000 there are 4 cases of skin cancer: ✓p = 4/10, 000 = 0.0004 or 0.04%. Of 100 patients hospitalized with stroke, 18 had Intra Cranial Hemorrhage (ICH) ✓Prevalence of ICH among hospitalized stroke patients = 18/100 = 0.18 or 18%  There are two types of prevalence: 1.POINT PREVALENCE: no. of events that are present at a point in time whether an old or new cases. This is the most used form of prevalence. No. of new and old events occurring at a point of time Point Prevalence rate = ‫ ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ‬x 1000 Total population at risk of getting that event 2. PERIOD PREVALENCE: the no. of cases of the disease whether old or new that are present within a period of time ( usually a calendar year) No. of new and old events occurring during a period of time Period Prevalence rate = ‫ ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ‬x 1000 Total population at risk of getting that event This rate sometimes approximates the incidence rate if the course of disease is short. Note that: a. prevalence is used primarily to measure the amount of illness in a community. Thus it can be used to determine the health care needs of that community and the resource available for this purposes. b. prevalence rates are influenced by both the incidence of disease and its duration. e.g. There were 120 cases of typhoid fever in a small city of 50000 pop at 1st Jan.2002.at the end of this year there were 30 added cases of that disease. At April of that year 60 cases ( old and recently diagnosed). Calculate the point prevalence( at April,2002) and period prevalence for the year 2002. No. of new and old cases of typhoid fever at April Point Prevalence = ‫ ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ‬x 1000 rate Total population at risk of getting that event 60 Point Prevalence = ‫ ـــــــــــــــــــــــ‬x 1000 = 1.2 cases of typhoid fever rate 50000 per 1000 pop at April, 2002  No. of cases present at the beginning of 2002 + new events occurring during that period of time Period Prevalence = ‫ ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ‬x 1000 rate Total population at risk of getting that disease 120+30 Period Prevalence = ‫ ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــ‬x 1000 = 2.4 cases of typhoid fever rate 50000 per 1000 pop during, 2002. The prevalence reflects the status of disease in the population, and estimates the probability that an individual will be ill at a point in time.. The incidence estimates the risk that an individual will develop the disease during a specified period of time.  The relation between the incidence and prevalence: Diseases with acute course which will end either in death or recovery of patientse.g. ( pneumonia, measles ). Such cases don't accumulate in the community, and don't contribute much to prevalence. While chronic diseases such as diabetes mellitus and hypertension, have impact on the prevalence , as these patient are included in every disease survey. In stable diseases : Incidence Prevalence = incidence x duration of disease Prevalence If the incidence of disease in the community, its fatality and recovery rate, are relatively stable, the prevalence is affected by duration.Death of disease. Prolonged duration of disease,.Recovery increases the prevalence rate and vice virsa. Relationship between Incidence & Prevalence In a STEADYSTATE(i.e.if incidence is not changing, and the population is stable) Prevalence rate=incidence rate times the duration of disease (P=IxD) Prevalence is a function of: ✓The incidenceof the condition, and ✓The average durationof the condition ✓Duration is influenced in turn by the recovery rate and mortality rate Prevalence ~Incidence x Duration What increases or decreases the prevalence Prevalence is increased by: 1.Increasing the incidence 2.Treatment that prolonged patient's survival but not curing the disease. Prevalence is decreased by: 1.Decreasing the incidence 2.Disease that ends with either cure or death  “Attack Rate": The proportion of susceptible individuals exposed to a specific risk factor in a disease outbreak that become cases. For an infectious risk factor, the attack rate is the number of secondary cases occurring within the accepted incubation period divided by the number of susceptible individuals in a closed group exposed to the primary (index) case. No. persons getting the disease during a specific time Attack rate = ‫ ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ‬x 100 Total population at risk of getting the disease Mortality rates are of many types: 1. Crude death rates: They are summary measures. Calculated by dividing total no. of an event among a population (of all ages of both sexes and of all causes) by total no. of the population during a specific period of time.. They represent the actual experience of the population.. Provide data useful for public health planning and administration.. Widely used for comparison purposes.. Easy to calculate..Use midyear because popn changes and this approximates the average pop. This rate is very useful in giving a general picture of mortality and not the accurate estimation because of the effect of age, sex and other confounding factors on the mortality. So observed differences may be due to the differences in population structure. Often this is reduced to measure rate in a particular popn but must reduce / restrict both numerator & denominator – this is a specific rate (like age specific or disease specific) which is: Dr. Moayad Alabdaly Dr. Moayad Alabdaly Indirect standardization Define the standard specific rates. For each age group stratum multiply the standard rates X equivalent age- sex stratum of index population=expected number of deaths in the index population under standard death rate. Add the expected number of deaths in the index population in all age-sex strata. The ratio of the total number of deaths actually observed to the total number of deaths expected, if the population of interest had the mortality experience of the known population, is then calculated. This ratio is called the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). Example of indirect age adjustment; in a population of 534,533 white male miners, 436 deaths from tuberculosis occurred in 1950. Is this mortality experience from tuberculosis greater than, less than, or about the same as that expected in white men of the same ages in the general population? Dr. Moayad Alabdaly Uses of Incidence & Prevalence Incidence Important when thinking of etiology Always requires a duration Unit of analysis is the event Requires an initial disease-free interval before counting starts Prevalence Important when thinking of societal burden May or may not requires a duration Unit of analysis is the person Not needed