Introducing the Environmental History of Climate Change PDF

11 Introducing the Environmental History of Climate Change Significant Ideas Climate Change occurs due to natural causes,...

11 Introducing the Environmental History of Climate Change Significant Ideas Climate Change occurs due to natural causes, but people have realised that the current rate of climate degradation is caused by humans. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a United Nations body that provides scientific information to governments at all levels to help them develop climate policies. Life on Earth exists thanks to a combination of three factors: our distance from the Sun, the chemical composition of our atmosphere, and the presence of the water cycle. According to the United Nations, climate change is the long-term change in temperatures and weather patterns that can occur naturally or be influenced by human activities. While the term weather describes short-term changes in the environment, climate refers to changes over a longer period of time in a region. The recent report from the IPCC emphasises that human activities are unequivocally responsible for global climate change. To make a positive difference, it is crucial to remain educated and well-informed about climate change since we are the ones who caused it and have the power to stop it. The IPCC was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Panel and the World Meteorological Organisation. It plays a significant role in addressing concerns regarding global warming. It continuously assesses various aspects of climate change, including scientific, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts, as well as response strategies. Rather than conducting independent scientific research, the IPCC consolidates and synthesises key research from around the world to establish a consensus. The Power of Education in Combating Climate Change The study of climate change is essential for several reasons. The impact of climate change and its consequences not only affects our livelihoods and lives but also poses a threat to our very existence on Earth. Understanding the causes and effects of climate change is crucial to comprehending and addressing this phenomenon. This knowledge is particularly important for young people, as it enables them to grasp and mitigate 1 Introducing the Environmental History of Climate Change Chapter 1.indd 1 11/19/2023 10:55:29 AM  the repercussions of global warming. By educating themselves about climate change, they can modify their behaviour, adapt to the global emergency we face, and even inspire others to take action. Education will play a vital role in the battle against climate change in the years to come. Studies have shown that when students engage in climate science courses, their perspectives on climate-related issues undergo long-lasting transformations. Even after five years of completing such courses, students continue to maintain strong personal connections with climate change concerns. Some students choose careers directly related to climate action, while others become engaged in their communities, educating others and advocating for policy changes. Many students change their daily behaviours as a result of their studies on climate change, contributing to the collective effort to adapt to the global emergency. COMBATING CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH EDUCATION Universal Education A green economy will require increases awareness and a strong education system improves the ability to to produce specialists trained comprehend information, in science, technology, evaluate risks and engineering and mathematics increase preparedness (STEM). Environment Education School must reflect the must be promoted as an environmental principles independent subject or a by energy efficient transversal theme in the systems to promote a school curriculum along close relationship with with dedicated training the environment. programme. Combating Climate Change through Education Research suggests that the impact of just one course can result in an individual reduction of emissions by over 2.5 metric tonnes per year. If a significant number of people were to undergo this transformative process, the cumulative emissions reductions could rival those achieved through larger-scale initiatives. By acquiring knowledge about climate change, its causes, impacts, and more, young people are empowered to understand and confront the consequences of global warming. Together, armed with this knowledge, we can initiate changes that prioritise the well- being of our planet. Climate Change 2 Chapter 1.indd 2 11/19/2023 10:55:29 AM  Glossary Millennial: involving or occurring over one thousand years Centennial: relating to, lasting for, or completing a period of 100 years Green economy: characterised by low carbon emissions, low pollution, renewable energy resource efficiency, and the prevention of biodiversity and ecosystem loss. Climate Change and Early Civilizations Climate change has been a factor influencing human societies since the advent of civilization and the development of agriculture approximately 10,000 years ago. These climatic fluctuations have had profound effects on various aspects of human cultures and societies. They range from annual and decadal climate variations to significant shifts occurring over centennial and millennial timescales. Such changes are believed to have played a role in shaping early crop cultivation, domestication, and animal husbandry. Throughout history, human societies have adapted in response to climate variations, although evidence also exists of societies and civilizations collapsing due to rapid and severe climatic shifts. The collapses of various civilizations, such as the Anasazi Indians in southern Utah, southwestern Colorado, northwestern New Mexico (200 CE–1300 CE) in North America, Tiwanaku in Bolivia, Akkadians in Mesopotamia, the Indus Valley in current day India and Pakistan, the Mayans (250 CE–900 CE) in Meso-America, and the Roman Empire from 625 BCE to its fall in 476 CE, have all coincided with sudden changes in climate, often marked by droughts. Examining Centuries of Climate Change Over the past 12,000 years, the Earth’s climate has remained stable, which has played a crucial role in the development of human civilization. This stability has allowed for the advancement of agriculture, animal domestication, settlement establishment, and cultural progress. During the last millennium, there have been variations in the climate occurring on a century-long scale, indicating that no two centuries have been identical. Both historical records and proxy data from various sources, such as marine and lake sediments, tree rings, corals, cave deposits, and ice cores, support this notion. ‘The Little Ice Age’, a period lasting from the 14th to the 19th centuries, was characterised by cold temperatures in Europe, the North Atlantic region, and other parts of the world. However, this icy period concluded within the last 150 years, and the 20th century witnessed significant warming trends in many regions. The warming of the 20th century can be attributed partly to the end of the Little Ice Age, when temperatures were relatively low. Though some natural factors, including variations in the Earth’s orbit (Milankovitch cycles), reductions in solar energy emissions, variations in ocean currents, and tectonic and volcanic activity, cause changes in global temperature, most climate scientists suggest that the primary cause is the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, particularly Carbon dioxide (CO2). Although warm years occurred intermittently during the Ice Age period, there were varying theories as to how they happened. It was suggested that the Earth had been 3 Introducing the Environmental History of Climate Change Chapter 1.indd 3 11/19/2023 10:55:29 AM  subjected to an ice age earlier in geologic time. By the late 18th century, some geologists had found ample evidence of distinct time periods in the past, each with their own unique climate conditions. During these periods, the climate underwent changes. In other words, they discovered that climate changes occurred during different “Climate Ages.” Louis Agassiz’s ‘Ice Age Theory’, for instance, was among many other theories, and it proposed that glaciers covered Europe and much of North America. In 1937, for the first time, he scientifically supported his theory. Furthermore, the timing of the coldest periods varied across regions, with some areas experiencing relative warmth while others faced extremely cold conditions. It was seen later that the movement of Alpine glaciers beyond their historical boundaries resulted in the destruction of farms, churches, and villages in countries like Switzerland and France. Frequent cold winters and cool, rainy summers led to crop failures, destroyed wine harvests, and caused famines in northern and central Europe. Increasing pack ice and storminess in the North Atlantic during the early 15th century isolated the Norse colonies in Greenland from the rest of Norse civilization, leading to the demise of the western colony due to famine and the abandonment of the eastern colony. Iceland also became increasingly disconnected from Scandinavia during this time. The North Atlantic cod fisheries suffered as ocean temperatures dropped in the 17th century. TIMELINE OF CLIMATE CHANGE Svante Arrhenius constructs the first climate model of the influence of atmospheric 1896 carbon dioxide (CO2 ). Era of large-scale petroleum development begins with the opening of Texas and Persian 1920-25 Gulf oil fields. Milutin Milankovitch publishes "Mathematical Climatology and the Astronomical Theory 1930 of Climatic Changes" to explain the causes of Earth's ice ages. Roger Revelle and Hans E. Suess write that "human beings are now carrying out a large 1957 scale geophysical experiment" in a paper examining CO2 uptake by the oceans. Curve developed by American climate scientist Charles David Keeling begins to track 1960 atmospheric CO2 concentrations. CO2 concentration in 1960≈315 parts per million (ppm). 1973 First oil shock 1974 First evidence of chlorine chemicals being involved in ozone depletion is published. 1979 Second oil shock 1980 Keeling Curve: CO2 concentration in 1980≈ 337 ppm. First Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report notes pattern of past 1990 warming while signaling that future warming is likely. United Nations conference in Rio de Janeiro creates the UN Framework Convention on 1992 Climate Change. Kyoto Protocol is created with the intent to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 1997 industrialized countries. The U.S., the largest GHG emitter at the time, does not sign on. 2000 Keeling Curve: CO2 concentration in 2000≈367 ppm. 2001 Third IPCC report notes that warming resulting from GHG emissions has become very likely. 2005 Kyoto Protocol goes into effect. All major industrialized countries sign on except the U.S. 2006 China becomes the world's largest GHG emitter. 2007 Fourth IPCC report notes that effects of global warming are occurring. 2011 Canada withdraws from the Kyoto Protocol. 2013 Keeling Curve: CO2 concentration in 2013 ≈ 400 ppm. Paris Agreement (which replaces the Kyoto Protocol) is adopted by nearly 200 countries, 2015 including the U.S. 2016 Paris Agreement goes into effect. 2021 Sixth IPCC report notes unequivocally that human activity has brought widespread and rapid changes to the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere. Timeline of Climate Change Climate Change 4 Chapter 1.indd 4 11/19/2023 10:55:29 AM  Before the onset of the Little Ice Age, northern and central Europe experienced a period of relatively mild weather known as the ‘Medieval Warm Period,’ which lasted from approximately 1000 CE to the first half of the 13th century, as evidenced by ice cores from Greenland. This era saw favourable conditions for abundant crops in much of Europe, with mild summers and winters. Vineyards and wheat farming thrived at higher latitudes and elevations compared to present times. Norse communities engaged in fishing, hunting, and exploration along the Labrador coast of Newfoundland, while their colonies in Iceland and Greenland prospered. However, similar to the Little Ice Age, the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ was not uniformly warm across the globe, and there is no evidence of high temperatures during this time everywhere in the world. Glossary Polar Ice Caps: dome-shaped sheets of ice found near the North and South Poles. Continental Ice Sheets: a mass of glacial ice covering more than 50,000 square kilometres (19,000 square miles). Ice sheets contain about 99% of the fresh water on Earth and are sometimes called continental glaciers. Today, there are only two ice sheets in the world: the Antarctic ice sheet and the Greenland ice sheet. Ice Age: ice age occurs when the Earth and its atmosphere experience long periods of reduced temperatures, resulting in large areas of the Earth being covered with Polar and Continental ice sheets, mountain and valley glaciers, and sea ice for millions, tens of millions, or even hundreds of millions of years. As the Earth’s climate alternates between ice ages and greenhouse periods, there may be periods of warming or cooling during an ice age. The greenhouse periods are hotter, longer-lasting periods with carbon dioxide levels 10-20 times higher than today and no ice on the planet. They cover 70% of the last two and a half billion years. Scientists estimated seventeen cycles between the glacial and interglacial periods. The last ice age peaked around 20,000 years ago, when global average temperatures were approximately 5 degrees colder than they are today. Carbon Sinks: The soil, oceans, plants, and forests absorb more carbon from the atmosphere than they release and are known as carbon sinks. Carbon source: a product that releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Examples of carbon sources include the burning of fossil fuels like gas, coal, and oil, deforestation, and volcanic eruptions. Hotlink Scanning this QR code will take you to a Quest staff-written article about the Keeling Curve. It is scientific evidence that indicates that carbon dioxide is accumulating in our atmosphere. The Keeling Curve Explained | KQED https://www.kqed.org/quest/73187/the-keeling-curve-explained#:~ 5 Introducing the Environmental History of Climate Change Chapter 1.indd 5 11/19/2023 10:55:29 AM  ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION 430 420 annual cycle of CO2 410 Atmospheric CO2 (parts per million) 400 390 380 Jan. April July Oct. Jan. 370 360 350 Keeling Curve 340 330 320 310 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year Keeling Curve Understanding Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and the Greenhouse Effect When certain gases, known as greenhouse gases, build up in the Earth’s atmosphere, they contribute to the greenhouse effect. Naturally occurring gases such as, carbon dioxide, methane, water vapour, fluorinated gases, and substances commonly known as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are among the culprits present in the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases build up and trap heat from the sun, creating the greenhouse effect. This trapped heat causes the Earth’s temperature to rise, resulting in global warming. While Global Warming is the climatic change on Earth that causes it to warm and heat up, the greenhouse effect occurs naturally and constantly due to sunlight and the atmospheric blanket layer. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT A part of the solar radiation is reflected Some of the infrared radiation passes by the Earth and the through the atmosphere. Some atmosphere absorbed by GHG and re-emitted in all directions by the atmosphere. This warms the Atmosphere Earth's surface and the lower Earth's Surface atmosphere. Some radiation is absorbed by the Earth's surface and warms it. Infrared radiation is emitted by Earth's surface Greenhouse effect Climate Change 6 Chapter 1.indd 6 11/19/2023 10:55:30 AM  Q Question ū Why is water vapour also considered a Greenhouse gas? Greenhouse gases have a dual role in the Earth’s atmosphere. They allow sunlight to penetrate and reach the surface while also trapping heat that would otherwise escape back into space. This trapping effect can be likened to the insulating glass walls of a greenhouse. The greenhouse effect plays a crucial role in maintaining the Earth’s climate at a comfortable level. Without the greenhouse effect, surface temperatures would be approximately 33°C (60°F) colder, leading to freezing conditions that would be inhospitable for many forms of life. On the other hand, too many greenhouse gases in the atmosphere result in trapping a lot of the earth’s radiation and warming the earth a lot. This, in turn, is the cause of droughts, desertification, forest fires, water scarcity, and food shortages. Since the onset of the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s and early 1800s, human activities have significantly contributed to the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Over the past century, these emissions have risen dramatically, with an overall increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the most prominent greenhouse gas, experienced an almost 80% increase during this period. Empirical data unequivocally indicates a consistent rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since 1958. Initially, the average concentration was around 316 parts per million by volume (ppmv), but it has now exceeded 400 ppmv. Present-day levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide surpass the natural range observed over the previous years. The primary source of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere is the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. This emission occurs through various means, including the use of fossil fuels in vehicles (cars, trucks, trains, and planes) and power plants. Deforestation contributes to carbon dioxide emissions through two distinct mechanisms. Firstly, the decay of plant matter, particularly trees, releases substantial amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Secondly, living trees absorb carbon dioxide, but deforestation reduces their numbers, resulting in a higher concentration of this gas in the atmosphere. Methane is another significant greenhouse gas, primarily produced by landfill waste decomposition, livestock rearing, and the extraction and processing of fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. Nitrous oxide, on the other hand, is generated through the burning of fossil fuels, the manufacturing of fertilisers, and the use of agricultural technologies. Many human activities release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and increase air pollution. Burning fossil fuels for electricity and transportation emits carbon dioxide, contributing to both air pollution and climate change. This affects both local air quality and the global climate. In many cities like Mumbai, Kolkata, and Delhi, air pollution is a significant concern, causing health issues and affecting quality of life. In fact, air pollution is the main cause of climate change. Burning fossil fuels and mass cutting of forests are human activities that cause an increase in the emission of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The pollutants trap 7 Introducing the Environmental History of Climate Change Chapter 1.indd 7 11/19/2023 10:55:30 AM  heat inside the atmosphere through the “greenhouse effect”. Ozone in the atmosphere warms the climate, while other suspended particulate matter could have either a warming or cooling effect on the climate. Venus’ atmosphere consists mostly of carbon dioxide, accounting for 96% of its composition. Furthermore, the atmosphere on Venus is 100 times denser than that on Earth. As a result, a substantial greenhouse effect occurs, leading to an Elsewhere! extremely high temperature of 462°C, which is even capable of melting lead. While the greenhouse effect plays a major role in Venus’ excessive heat, its proximity to the Sun also contributes to its extreme temperatures. Without an atmosphere, Venus’s absolute temperature would be half of what it is now due to the greenhouse doubling effect. Fluorinated gases, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), are used in refrigeration systems and aerosol cans. These gases are also classified as greenhouse gases and contribute to their overall buildup in the atmosphere. Their accumulation leads to the enhanced greenhouse effect, causing global warming by trapping more heat than normal. Q Question ū How is ozone layer depletion related to climate change? The Impact of Increasing Greenhouse Gases When there is an accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other air contaminants in the atmosphere, they capture sunlight and solar radiation that has already bounced off the Earth’s surface. Typically, this radiation would dissipate into space, but due to the prolonged presence of these contaminants in the atmosphere, they retain the heat, leading to an increase in global temperatures. The greenhouse effect occurs as a consequence of these heat-retaining contaminants, collectively known as greenhouse gases. Key Fact The release of methane through the burps and dung of livestock is considered a significant concern and an opportunity to combat global warming. Approximately 14% of human- caused climate emissions are attributed to cows and other farm animals. To reduce methane levels, potential solutions include exploring alternative diets for cattle, minimising food loss and waste, and decreasing the production of meat and dairy products. What’s the beef with cows and the climate crisis? | Cop26 | The Guardian What does climate change include? Climate change refers to the recurring modifications in the Earth’s climate system, resulting from various factors such as atmospheric variations and interactions with geological, chemical, biological, and geographical elements. The impacts of climate change are far-reaching and have become more pronounced since the mid-20th Climate Change 8 Chapter 1.indd 8 11/19/2023 10:55:30 AM  Estimations of past and future global warming 6.0 A2 average global surface warming (°C) A1B 5.0 B1 4.0 Baseline year 2000 CO2 concentrations 20th century 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 –1.0 A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2 1900 2000 2100 Estimations of past and future Global Warming century, primarily due to human activities. Climate Change includes both, the human activity induced emissions of greenhouse gases that drive ‘global warming’ and the resulting ‘large-scale shifts in global weather patterns.’ One very noticeable effect of climate change is the accelerated melting of polar ice due to rising temperatures. This phenomenon, in turn, causes rising sea levels, leading to increased floods and coastal erosion. The primary cause of this rapid climate change is the indiscreet string of non- eco friendly human activities, which puts humanity’s very existence at risk. Another consequence of climate change is the disruption of weather patterns, which leads to unpredictability. This unpredictability poses significant challenges for agricultural practises, especially in vulnerable nations like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, etc. that are heavily dependent on farming. Unforeseen and unpredictable weather patterns make it difficult to grow and maintain cropping patterns. Furthermore, climate change contributes to the occurrence of more frequent and severe hurricanes, floods, cyclones, and other destructive weather phenomena. Natural processes in the Earth’s climate system can either speed up or slow down global warming. ‘Climate feedback’ refers to processes in the Earth’s climate system that can amplify or dampen the effects of climate change. For example, when temperatures rise, it can cause ice to melt, reducing the amount of sunlight reflected. This leads to more heat absorption, further warming the planet. To slow down global warming, ‘carbon sinks’ can store carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. These “sinks” include forests and oceans that absorb carbon dioxide. Land temperatures have been rising at a rate approximately twice that of the global average temperature. This means temperatures on land surfaces are increasing at a faster pace compared to the average temperature of the entire Earth. This results in desertification, more frequent heat waves, and increased wildfire activity. The Arctic 9 Introducing the Environmental History of Climate Change Chapter 1.indd 9 11/19/2023 10:55:30 AM  region is particularly affected, experiencing permafrost melting, glacier retreat, and sea ice loss. Warmer temperatures cause increased evaporation rates, leading to more water vapour in the atmosphere. This water vapour condenses into clouds, increasing storm intensity and weather extremes. Climate change also upsets ecosystems, which means that many species have to move or go extinct. Coral reefs, mountainous areas, and the Arctic are the most at risk. These areas are especially vulnerable because they have adapted to specific environmental conditions that are changing as a result of rising temperatures. From coral bleaching to glacial melting, climate change disturbs the ecosystems where many species live. The consequences of climate change pose numerous threats to individuals, including food insecurity, water scarcity, flooding, the spread of infectious diseases, extreme heat events, economic losses, and forced displacement. The World Health Organisation has recognised climate change as the greatest threat to global health in the twenty-first century, largely due to these human-induced effects. Even with successful efforts to limit future warming, certain effects of climate change will persist for thousands of years. Rising sea levels, increasing ocean temperatures, and ocean acidification are among the long-lasting impacts. According to various reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), these effects will become more severe if global warming continues to rise, particularly surpassing 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). Additionally, higher levels of warming increase the likelihood of reaching critical ‘tipping points’ that can have irreversible consequences. Hotlink To get a brief overview of the causes, effects, and solutions to tackle climate change, scan this QR code and watch the video. sources: https://www.the guardian.com People protesting against Climate Change Source: https://img.freepik.com/free-photo/people-protesting-together-against-global- warming_23-2149040383.jpg?w=2000 Climate Change 10 Chapter 1.indd 10 11/19/2023 10:55:31 AM  According to the 2015 Paris Accord, it is crucial to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Climate experts believe that by staying below this target, humans and the planet can mitigate some of the most severe consequences of climate change. However, without human intervention, the Earth is currently on a trajectory to surpass the 1.5-degree threshold within 20 years and could reach 3 degrees of warming within a century. The potential outcomes of even a 2-degree increase in global warming are alarming. NASA estimates that under such conditions, nearly all coral reefs would face extinction, a significant drought would impact an additional 61 million people, annual deadly heat waves would become more prevalent, an extra 270 million individuals could experience water scarcity, and severe weather events would increase both in frequency and severity. To stabilise the climate system and mitigate the effects of climate change, the only solution is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Achieving this goal would necessitate substantial and widespread changes. Understanding the impact of climate change on our environment and taking appropriate action necessitates extensive research, as changes in the Earth’s climate have a profound impact on our planet’s ecosystems. With accurate information, we can comprehend how climate change affects us, why temperatures are rising rapidly, and how we can contribute to addressing the issue. The loss of sea ice due to rising temperatures is already impacting coastal ecosystems. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and are projected to continue increasing. If no action is taken, climate change will exacerbate natural disasters and harm ecosystems. We are already witnessing increased pollution and food shortages in the United States as a result of shifting climates. As climate change progresses, the marine ecosystem is at a higher risk of significant damage, jeopardising ocean-dwelling species and reducing food availability in coastal areas. The effects of climate change are not limited to a specific region; they are universal. While initially impacting those with fewer resources, the repercussions will eventually affect every person on Earth. Delayed Acknowledgement of Climate Change Approximately a century has transpired since the term ‘global warming’ was initially coined. In 1896, Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius postulated that human activities could significantly increase the levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, a notion later corroborated by Thomas Chamberlin in 1902. It wasn’t until 1987 that evidence from Antarctica’s Vostok further established the role of carbon dioxide. Despite scientific recognition and acceptance of this phenomenon in the late 1950s and early 1960s, it took until the late 1980s for the general public to suddenly recognise the grave danger posed by global warming. The prevailing belief among the majority of people was that the oceans would absorb the excess CO2, which led to scepticism. The delay in recognising climate change can be attributed to two main factors: the significance of global mean temperature 11 Introducing the Environmental History of Climate Change Chapter 1.indd 11 11/19/2023 10:55:31 AM  (GMT) data sets and the decline in global temperatures, as well as the need for a global environmental consciousness. The global temperature curve exhibited a general downward trend from 1940 until the mid-1970s, prompting many scientists to debate the possibility of another major ice age. Furthermore, the understanding of the unpredictable nature of the historical climate in the 1970s contributed to this apprehension. Advancements in paleoceanography, the study of past seas through deep-sea sediments, revealed the existence of at least 32 glacial-interglacial cycles in the last 2.5 million years, contrary to the previously accepted four cycles. The emergence of a rising global annual mean temperature curve in the early 1980s cast doubt on the theory of global cooling. The sudden upsurge in the global temperature curve in the late 1980s gave rise to the hypothesis of global warming. The warmest recorded years globally were 1998 and 2010, and this warming trend has persisted until the present, with 2010 being deemed the warmest year due to the influence of El Niño. The terms ‘global warming’ and ‘climate change’ gained support due to extensive media coverage and the publication of dramatic stories in the late 1980s and 1990s. This increased support for the concept of global warming. By the late 1990s, politicians, medical professionals, and economists started taking the threat of climate change seriously, leading to a greater awareness and acceptance of the fact that climate change is real and predominantly caused by human activity. In the 1980s, concerns among scientists also arose regarding other greenhouse gases like methane (CH4) and the role of oceans as heat reservoirs. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, an increasing number of research teams began working on climate models. When the findings of 14 general circulation models (GCMs) were collectively compared in 1992, they showed general agreement, supporting the predictions of global warming. GCMs are a specific type of climate model that employs mathematical representations of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, often used for studying other planetary environments. Science seeks evidence, and the currently available evidence has convincingly demonstrated that climate change is an undeniable reality. Six Major Lines of Evidence for Climate Change: 1. The analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) levels in the atmosphere indicates that the combustion of fossil fuels is the primary source of additional carbon, as indicated by the isotopic composition of these gases. 2. Experimental observations conducted in both laboratory settings and the atmosphere demonstrate that these gases possess the capability to absorb heat. 3. Significant alterations in global temperatures and the rise in sea levels have been observed during the past century. 4. The cryosphere (ice world) and atmosphere have experienced notable transformations, including the retreat of sea ice and glaciers, as well as the occurrence of extreme weather events, which have been extensively documented. Climate Change 12 Chapter 1.indd 12 11/19/2023 10:55:31 AM  5. Natural phenomena such as sunspots and volcanic eruptions cannot explain the observed warming trend over the last century, according to compelling evidence. 6. Our understanding now encompasses historical climatic shifts occurring over extended periods, and the role played by GHGs in regulating the climate. Conflict Pollution: The Hidden Costs of Conflict Throughout history, conflicts have been known to contribute to climate change. Due to the large number of trucks, cargo, transport, and warplanes and containers, as well as warships, used by the military to meet operational needs and for regular training and maintenance, the military uses a lot of fossil fuels. This contributes directly to air pollution, makes our planet’s carbon footprint bigger, and adds to the problem of global warming. If the US military, for instance, were considered a nation, it would rank 47th globally in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. This is because contemporary warfare tactics such as bombings and other forms of aggression not only result in the direct destruction of wildlife and the loss of biodiversity through collateral damage from conflicts, which can lead to the demise of up to 90% of large animals in affected regions, but the pollution in the air is also caused by excessive use of its vast defence infrastructure. “Conflict pollution” describes the environmental pollution resulting from military activities. This pollution contaminates the air, land, and water, posing a serious threat to human habitation. The Cost of Wars Project in the USA estimated in 2017 that US military pollution had accounted for 1.2 billion metric tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions. This, it was estimated, was equivalent to the pollution and greenhouse gas emissions caused by 257 million passenger cars annually. The Cost of Wars Project also found that the total emissions related to war-activity in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Syria released over 400 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide alone, besides other toxic gases. Research at Durham University and Lancaster University has shown that the US military is and has been one of the largest climate polluters, as it consumes more liquid fuels and emits more carbon-dioxide than most countries. World War I had profound ecological consequences because of trench warfare. The digging of trenches disrupted the soil, destroying the habitats of plants and animals. Also, the logging of forests to create trenches led to increased soil erosion. These environmental impacts persisted beyond the Cold War era and continue to affect the ecosystem to this day. World War II also had significant environmental consequences. Chemical contamination and aerial warfare negatively impacted global flora and fauna populations as well as species diversity. One of the largest oil spills in history occurred during the Gulf War in 1991. Destroying underground oil wells to generate smoke and deflect air strikes was seen as advantageous. However, this led to the release of greenhouse gases, resulting in a significant decline in air quality due to the Kuwaiti oil fires. Subsequent research 13 Introducing the Environmental History of Climate Change Chapter 1.indd 13 11/19/2023 10:55:31 AM  has characterised the spill as an act of environmental terrorism, highlighting its detrimental effects on marine animals, ecosystems, and coastal sediments. In 2017, it was discovered that isolated bay regions contained dangerous levels of hydrocarbons, posing a threat to the survival of the creatures residing there. The oil spill also coated the feathers of seabirds, causing the deaths of numerous species, including approximately 30,000 grebes and cormorants. The recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia has had wide-ranging environmental consequences. Wars bring violence and destruction. Beyond bombs and bullets, which cause an increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, wars destroy critical resources like farms, livestock, gardens, land, and civilian infrastructure. This has led to food scarcity, disrupted economic activities, threatened survival, and hindered the lives of both people and wildlife. This situation has resulted in displacement, starvation, and death, jeopardising food security and other factors. Wars bring violence and destruction Source: https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/51vvF9CwYqL.jpg Do It Yourself Many people are making deliberate dietary changes and embracing “veganism.” Investigate the relationship between veganism and climate change, as well as how it may benefit the environment. Conclusion The Earth’s climate has changed dramatically over time. Long periods of calm were punctuated by varying lengths and severity of change. Climate change has caused mass extinction events, wiping out many plant and animal species. Climate Change 14 Chapter 1.indd 14 11/19/2023 10:55:31 AM  References 1. “10 Reasons why Climate Change is Important” wwf.org.uk URL: http://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/10-reasons-why-climate-change-important Accessed on: October 11, 2023 2. “A Brief History of Climate Change” bbc.com URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-15874560 Accessed on: October 11, 2023 3. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes royalsociety.org URL:https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/basics-of-climate- change/ Accessed on: October 11, 2023 4. “Greenhouse Effect” education.nationalgeograhic.org URL:https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/ projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/basics-of-climate-change/ Accessed on: October 11, 2023 5. “Greenhouse Effect” britannica.com URL: https://www.britannica.com/science/greenhouse-effect Accessed on: October 11, 2023 6. “Greenhouse Effect on Other Planets” energyeducation.ca URL: https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Greenhouse_effect_on_other_planets Accessed on: October 11, 2023 15 Introducing the Environmental History of Climate Change Chapter 1.indd 15 11/19/2023 10:55:31 AM  12 Understanding How Climate Change is Caused and its Effects Significant Ideas Activities such as agriculture, road construction, and deforestation can change the reflectivity of the Earth’s surface, leading to local warming or cooling. This effect is observed in ‘heat islands’, which are urban centres that are warmer than the surrounding, less populated areas. One reason that these areas are warmer is that pavements, buildings, and roofs tend to reflect less sunlight than natural surfaces. Emissions of ‘aerosols,’ which are small particles released into the air by natural or human sources, also cause the sun’s energy to be reflected or absorbed. Many types of air pollutants undergo chemical reactions in the atmosphere to create aerosols. The interconnectedness of Earth’s spheres, including land, water, air, and life, results in various interactions that impact all living beings. Climate change refers to long-term alterations in temperature and weather patterns. While global warming specifically denotes the increase in atmospheric temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions, climate change encompasses broader shifts in climate measures like precipitation, temperature, and wind patterns over extended periods. These changes can occur naturally, but since the 1800s, human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas, have become the primary drivers of climate change by producing heat-trapping gases. Factors Contributing to Climate Change Several natural and anthropogenic factors contribute to changes in the Earth’s climate, which in turn affect animals and their habitats. Here are some of the key factors: 1. Natural Factors: There are several natural factors that contribute to changes in the Earth’s climate, with effects spanning thousands to millions of years. a. Continental Drift: The present-day continents were not the same prior to 200 million years. They have had to drift apart due to plate displacement. This movement had an impact on climate change due to the change in the landmass’s physical features and position and the change in positions of waterbodies or winds, like the change in the flow of ocean currents and wind directions. The Climate Change 16 Chapter 2.indd 16 11/19/2023 11:06:34 AM  What causes Climate change? Natural factors Anthropogenic factors Sunspot and solar cycle Industries Methane emissions from animals Deforestation Carbon dioxide Meteorites emissions Forest fires Chemical fertilizers Increased vehicular Volcanic eruptions emissions Ocean currents GHG emissions Climate Change Causes drifting of the landmass continues today due to plate tectonics. The Himalayan range is rising approximately 1 millimetre every year as the Indian landmass is moving towards the Asian landmass. Over millions of years, continental movement caused by mechanisms such as ‘continental drift’ and ‘Milankovitch cycles’ has altered climate patterns, including the occurrence of glacial and interglacial eras. b. Variation of the Earth’s orbit: The Earth’s orbit has an impact on the seasonal distribution of sunlight that is reaching the Earth’s surface. A slight change in the Earth’s orbit can lead to variations in its distribution across the world. Although there are very few changes to the average amount of sunshine, however, it has a high impact on geographical and seasonal distribution. There are three types of orbital variations: i) variations in Earth’s eccentricity ii) variations in the tilt of the Earth’s axis of rotation and iii) precession of Earth’s axis Together, they can cause the ‘Milankovitch cycles’, which have a huge impact on long term changes in Earth’s climate, including the beginning and end of the Ice Ages throughout the history of Earth’s climate and their connection to the glacial and interglacial periods. However, they cannot account for the current period of rapid warming from 1850 CE to 1900 CE, which scientists are convinced is due to human activities, especially increased carbon inputs into Earth’s atmosphere and oceans from the burning of fossil fuels. c. Plate tectonics: The shifting of the Earth’s tectonic plates, caused by mantle plumes and convection currents, has an effect on ocean patterns and heat distribution. This has a long-term impact on our planet’s climate. 17 Understanding How Climate Change is Caused Chapter 2.indd 17 11/19/2023 11:06:34 AM  d. Volcanic Activity: When volcanoes erupt, gases and dust are released, which can have an effect on climate patterns and cause the weather to cool. e. Ocean Currents: Temperature variations within ocean currents can affect the climate in particular areas. PROCESS OF GLOBAL WARMING 3 2 The Earth gives 4 off infrared Some of this infrared radiation is radiation (IR) trapped by gases present in the air (including CO2). This helps the Earth to remain warm and support life. 1 The Earth is warmed by the sunlight passing through the atmosphere. 5 ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT Gradually the increasing level of CO2 leads to the increase in the amount of heat absorbed and re-emitted. This causes the Earth’s surface to heat up. Process of Earth Warming Glossary Milankovitch cycles are a set of orbital motions that include the shape of the Earth’s orbit (its eccentricity), the angle at which the Earth’s axis is tilted with respect to its orbital plane (obliquity of its axis), and the direction that the Earth’s spin axis is pointing (precession). They have an effect on how much sunlight gets to the Earth. Albedo is the reflectivity of an object in space. The lower the albedo, the greater the absorption of solar radiation. Evapotranspiration is the amount of water vapour added to the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration from the leaf surfaces of vegetation. Hotlink Scan the QR code to learn more Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in Earth’s Climate 2. Anthropogenic factors, or those brought on by human activity a. Environmental Disturbances: Pollution caused by industrialisation, urbanisation, and rapid development without planning destroys ecosystems, causes health problems, and contributes to global warming. Pollution of the air, water, and soil has had its effects on the climate for a long time. b. Greenhouse Gases: The industrial revolution increased the emission of greenhouse gases immensely. Excess absorption led to the retention of Climate Change 18 Chapter 2.indd 18 11/19/2023 11:06:34 AM  excess heat in the atmosphere and increased global temperatures. In fact, the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere is directly linked to the average global temperature. The heated surface of the Earth emits infrared radiation, which the greenhouse gases absorb. The main greenhouse gases (GHGs) include: § Water vapour is a major component, but its impact is less. § Carbon dioxide is emitted by both natural and human sources and remains in the atmosphere for an extended period of time. This means that it has a big effect. Since the industrial revolution, its concentration has increased by 40%. Deforestation is another factor that contributes to it. § Methane is released by decomposition of organic matter. It absorbs 80% more heat than CO2. § Nitrous oxide is produced by the use of organic fertilisers in waste and by burning fossil fuels. § Chlorofluorocarbons are man-made compounds used for industrial purposes like refrigeration and air conditioning. Increased emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) trap extra heat in the atmosphere, driving up global temperatures. Their quantities have risen to record levels higher than those from the past three million years. The level of these emissions continues to increase cumulatively with the rapid growth in population, economic development, and higher standards of living. Q Question ū Why is water vapour also considered a Greenhouse gas? INDUSTRIES EMISSIONS DEFORESTATION FOSSIL FUELS HUMAN OIL RIGGING ACTIVITIES THAT CAUSE POLLUTION SMOKE AND VEHICULAR DUST POLLUTION WATER POLLUTION Pollution due to Human Activities 19 Understanding How Climate Change is Caused Chapter 2.indd 19 11/19/2023 11:06:34 AM  c. Land-Use Change: Altering land use, changing the Earth’s albedo (reflectivity), lowering evapotranspiration rates, deforestation, and the conversion of forests into agricultural lands contribute to climate change. Half of the land-use change occurred during the industrial era. Agricultural cropping and grazing land have taken the place of forests. With the removal of forests, albedo increased in the snow-covered high-altitude regions, and the Earth’s surface cooled. This is because the Earth reflects more heat energy into space. But when GHGs absorb this heat,it causes global warming through the greenhouse effect. d. Deforestation: The removal of forests, particularly in tropical areas, alters soil moisture properties and influences evapotranspiration rates. It contributes to desertification and affects soil moisture characteristics. EMISSIONS AND POLLUTANTS THAT WARM THE EARTH Escaping radiation Absorbed Edge o Reflected f the a tmosp here Radiation absorbed by the atmosphere and Earth Greenhouse gases absorb radiation Deforestation CFC's Vehicular emissions, burning of petrol Greenhouse gases and fossil fuels Emissions and Pollutants That Warm The Earth e. Atmospheric Aerosols: Aerosols in the atmosphere have the ability to deflect and absorb solar radiation, altering the radiation balance and impacting cloud formation and characteristics, all of which have an impact on climate change by absorbing or reflecting infra-red radiation. They can indirectly affect climate change by modifying cloud formation and properties or by being transported by wind and upper level air circulation in the atmosphere. There are two categories of aerosols: 1. Natural aerosols are produced by volcanic eruptions, which produce sulphate aerosols, and biogenic sources such as plankton, which can produce dimethyl- sulphide. Natural aerosols were produced as the sun’s energy output changed over time, according to data analysis and model simulations. Because of the reversal of its magnetic poles, the sun’s activity alternates between high and low intensity. Its radiation, brightness, and material ejection, such as solar flares, changed over time, influencing the earth’s weather and climate. The position of the sun in relation to the Earth has shifted over time. This had an impact on the Climate Change 20 Chapter 2.indd 20 11/19/2023 11:06:34 AM  AEROSOLS AND CLIMATE Tiny particles are released inito the atmosphere by a variety of human and natural causes, including industry and volcanoes. These aerosols could either reflect radiation back into space or absorb sunlight, warming the atmosphere. Radiation is reflected Black soot absorbs heat resulting in warmer air Tiny particles Water condences around collect in the air these tiny particles (especially sulphates) and forms clouds. ANTHRO POGENIC CAUSES NATURAL CAUSES These include nitrogen oxides, sulphates, Organic compounds, soot, ammonia, hydrocarbons, soot. salt, sulfates Urbanization Increasing Industrialization forest fires Agricultural Volcanic development eruptions Oceans Dust Vegetation Phytoplankton Atmospheric Aerosols seasons and daylight hours. Furthermore, the Earth orbits the sun in an ellipse rather than a circle. As a result, the Sun-Earth relationship changes throughout the year. Furthermore, because of the tilt of our planet’s axis, different parts of our planet receive less or more sunlight at different times of the year. The periods of volcanic eruptions were a second source of aerosol pollution. In the pre-industrial era, these were most likely the two main causes of climate change. 2. Anthropogenic aerosols are produced as a result of human activities. In the post-industrial period, an important source of aerosol pollution, either directly or indirectly through atmospheric chemical processes, is vehicle exhaust. In addition, the burning of plants and other organic materials, as well as the use of ammonia in fertilisers, has contributed to the release of nitrate aerosols. Aerosol concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere are discovered to be around three times greater than in the Southern Hemisphere, resulting in a 50% higher radiation concentration in the Northern Hemisphere. Since the industrial era, human activities have taken the lead in generating and accelerating climate change. f.  Oil Spills: Seawater develops a thin coating of oil on the surface that blocks sunlight from getting into the water as a result of accidental oil spills or the cleaning of oil containers in the sea. This hinders the ability of marine plants and phytoplankton to perform photosynthesis, which results in less carbon dioxide being absorbed. Q Question ū To what extent does economic growth contribute to climate change? 21 Understanding How Climate Change is Caused Chapter 2.indd 21 11/19/2023 11:06:34 AM  Some Variations in Temperature and Rainfall Patterns Related to Climate Change Despite the fact that many aspects of climate change are closely related to degrees of global warming, individual experiences might differ greatly from those of the entire world. For instance, land areas often warm faster than the world average, with the Arctic warming at a rate more than twice as high. According to Panmao Zhai, co-chair of IPCC Working Group I, ‘Climate change is already having an influence on every part of the Earth in different ways. With more warming, the effects will become more severe.’ The analysis predicts that during the next few decades, climate change will spread to all regions. With 1.5° C of global warming, there will be more heat waves, longer warm seasons, and shorter cold seasons. At 2° C of global warming, heat extremes will more regularly cross thresholds that have an impact on agriculture and human health. But the term ‘climate change’ refers to more than just changes in temperature. Climate Change and Ecosystems Climate change can have an impact on ecosystems, habitats, migration patterns, the timing of reproductive cycles, and the distribution of species. These elements of temperature and precipitation and some others work together to cause climate change, which affects distinct animal species in different ways. Additionally, it may result in more frequent and severe extreme weather conditions, which will have an impact on animal populations and their capacity for survival. To lessen the effects of climate change on animals and to conserve biodiversity, conservation initiatives, mitigation plans, and adaptation measures are crucial. Key Fact Overall, climate change is a significant driver of habitat loss, alteration, and disruption for animals around the world. The consequences are vast, including declines in population sizes, reduced reproductive success, changes in migration patterns, and even the potential for species extinctions. Protecting and mitigating the impacts of climate change is crucial for the long-term survival of Earth’s diverse animal life. For instance, snails have the ability to enter a dormant state for extended periods, sometimes up to three years, when the weather is not sufficiently moist to meet their needs. However, due to climate change, certain areas may experience reduced moisture levels, which can disrupt the snails’ natural behaviour. Climate change has profound effects on animals and ecosystems worldwide. Pandas rely heavily on bamboo as their primary food source. Unfortunately, climate change has led to a decline in bamboo growth in China, where pandas are native. This poses a significant challenge for pandas, as the reduction in bamboo availability threatens their food supply and overall survival. Another example is the green turtle, which is highly sensitive to temperature changes caused by global warming. The temperature of the sand where a turtle’s egg is deposited plays a crucial role in determining the gender of the offspring. However, due to climate change, warmer regions are experiencing imbalances in the gender ratio of green Climate Change 22 Chapter 2.indd 22 11/19/2023 11:06:34 AM  turtles. This is because higher temperatures tend to produce more female turtles, disrupting the natural equilibrium of their populations. These examples illustrate the adverse effects of climate change on various animal species and highlight the urgent need for global efforts to mitigate its impacts and protect vulnerable wildlife. One significant impact is observed in the Antarctic, where Adélie penguins rely on krill as their primary food source. Unfortunately, the population of krill is declining, and their natural habitat is being destroyed due to climate change. In addition to the specific case of Adélie penguins and krill, climate change has broader consequences for animals and ecosystems. Salmon and trout living in cold water habitats are naturally vulnerable to a warming climate, forcing them to the verge of extinction. Here are some key points to consider regarding the effects of climate change. You will learn more later. 1. Changes in the water cycle: Climate change intensifies the water cycle, leading to more severe rainfall, flooding, and extreme drought conditions in different regions. This has already caused significant damage in the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Hotlink Scan the QR code to gain a deeper understanding of the impacts of climate change on animals. Source: Which animals are most impacted by climate change? | IFAW 2. Altered precipitation patterns: Higher latitudes are projected to experience increased precipitation, while subtropical regions may face decreased rainfall. The monsoon systems in various areas are also expected to undergo changes, with implications for local ecosystems and wildlife. 3. Rising sea levels and coastal impacts: Throughout the 21st century, coastal regions will face ongoing sea level rise, resulting in more frequent and severe coastal flooding and erosion, which has already begun in many places. Small island states like Sri Lanka and coastal states like Bangladesh, which are traditional lands of indigenous peoples, are especially vulnerable to these effects, particularly those in the Pacific region. Indigenous populations in the islands of the Pacific face serious risks from hazards like landslides, frequent storm surges, and soil erosion brought on by destructive waves. These dangers can result in the loss of land, posing a grave risk not only to the livelihoods but also to the cultures and ways of life of indigenous peoples. Their traditional lands and territories are inherently connected to their identities. Climate change impacts and risks are already being experienced in the Pacific region. For instance, recent problems have arisen in the Marshall Islands, Cook Islands, Tuvalu, and low-lying islands of Papua New Guinea due to high tides and stormy seas. Flooding and other climate variations now put plantations and livestock, that are crucial means of subsistence for many indigenous groups, at risk from diseases and pests 23 Understanding How Climate Change is Caused Chapter 2.indd 23 11/19/2023 11:06:34 AM  4. Ocean acidification: Increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere lead to higher acidity in the oceans. As the oceans absorb approximately 30% of the CO2 released, their acidity increases, negatively impacting marine life. The rise in acidity reduces the relative abundance of carbonate ions, which are essential for forming shells and skeletons in many marine organisms. Carbonate ions play a vital role in the formation of structures like seashells and coral skeletons. A decrease in carbonate ions can pose challenges for calcifying organisms such as oysters, clams, sea urchins, shallow water corals, deep sea corals, and calcareous plankton, as it becomes more difficult for them to build and maintain their shells and calcium carbonate structures. Additionally, the acidity of the water can impair the ability of certain fish to detect predators. When these organisms are endangered, the entire food web is at risk. Ocean acidification is a global issue affecting not only the world’s oceans but also coastal estuaries and waterways. Many economies depend on fish and shellfish, and people worldwide rely on oceanic food as their primary source of protein. ROLE OF CARBON DIOXIDE IN OCEAN ACIDIFICATION late 1800s 2100 (projected) seawater pH reduced acidity seawater pH increased acidity lower concentration higher concentration 9 of atmospheric CO2 9 of atmospheric CO2 8 CO2 8 CO2 7 7 carbon dioxide carbon dioxide Ocean acidification 5. Glacial melt and melting sea ice: Further warming will aggravate permafrost thawing, the loss of seasonal snow cover, melting glaciers and ice sheets, and the decline of summer Arctic sea ice. Human influence has been clearly linked to changes in the ocean, including warming, more frequent marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and reduced oxygen levels. These changes impact both ocean ecosystems and the people who depend on them, and they will continue for at least the remainder of this century. The Great Barrier Reef and the Indian Ocean have already suffered damage from ‘coral bleaching’, leading to the loss of aquatic life that relies on the diverse coral habitats. 6. ‘Heat islands’ in urban areas: Cities are also vulnerable to certain aspects of climate change, such as amplified heat due to the ‘urban heat island’ effect, increased flooding from heavy precipitation events, and rising sea levels in coastal areas. The lack of vegetation and excessive concrete construction in urban areas contribute to the formation of heat islands that impede rainfall. Additionally, air conditioning releases aerosols that further add heat to the atmosphere. Climate Change 24 Chapter 2.indd 24 11/19/2023 11:06:34 AM  The Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC introduces a more detailed regional assessment of climate change, offering valuable information for risk assessment, adaptation, and decision-making. It includes a new framework that translates physical climate changes like heat, cold, rain, drought, snow, wind, and coastal flooding into implications for society and ecosystems. Research comparing economic data from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that 77% of countries will become poorer than they would have been without climate change. Hotlink Follow the link to this interactive source from the IMF that looks at carbon dioxide atmospheric concentrations as well as trends in global warming, such as rising sea levels, rising temperatures, and the frequency of natural disasters, all of which are important indicators for tracking climate change and its effects on people. Climate Change Data Social and Economic Impact of Climate Change Source: https://scontent-del1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/240674157_2078461962305396_ 3302437819 701631547_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=5f2048&_nc_ohc=q-957pqwodQAX8Tdg6D &_nc_ht=scontent-del1-1.xx&oh=00_AfCkDUnqMuOABwkkhZctmJdp SBJ8A7a041gm5rSFf4MXHg&oe=6532AAC0 25 Understanding How Climate Change is Caused Chapter 2.indd 25 11/19/2023 11:06:35 AM  Climate change is going to have a significant effect on the economies of many countries. It is one of a large number of lower and middle-income countries that are at particular risk. Predictions made by economists have concluded that climate change will disrupt economic systems as well as natural and social systems globally. Heatwaves and droughts would shrink harvests and reduce productivity. Tropical and temperate storms would devastate millions of people, leaving them in absolute poverty, affecting the availability of food supplies, industrial raw materials, and supply chains, damaging infrastructure, especially in urban areas, slowing down global development, and harming human health. The World Bank has warned: ‘if immediate action is not taken, climate change could push another 100 million people into poverty by 2030.’ References https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/what-is-climate-change https://warmheartworldwide.org/what-is-climate-change/?gclid=Cj0KCQiAqOucBhDrARIsAPCQL1Zo6v 02FQ3boppFKjCJZdFJfwW7- https://www.activesustainability.com/environment/how-to-prevent-natural-disasters/?_adin=0202186 4894 https://www.cordaid.org/en/news/climate-is-threatening-our-food-and-vice-versa/?gclid=Cj0KCQiAqOuc BhDrARIsAPCQL1Yu7FCNfjm47tcX44iYWo https://climate.ec.europa.eu/climate-change/causes-climate-change_en https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/causes-of-climate-change https://www.dailycal.org/2015/10/22/study-by-uc-berkeley-professors-links-economic-inequality-climate- change https://www.earthday.org/earth-day-2023/ https://www.earthday.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/ED23-Action-Toolkit.pdf https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change/climate-and-the-economy Climate Change 26 Chapter 2.indd 26 11/19/2023 11:06:35 AM  13 Climate Change and Environmental Disasters Significant Ideas