UK Institutions PDF

LAW LEGAL ENGLISH « Ce cours est posté BÉNÉVOLEMENT par un élève de votre promotion. Pour les questions ou les remarques, adressez vous directement au pôle scolarité et pas au bénévole. »...

LAW LEGAL ENGLISH « Ce cours est posté BÉNÉVOLEMENT par un élève de votre promotion. Pour les questions ou les remarques, adressez vous directement au pôle scolarité et pas au bénévole. » § S1 Introduct° to the British and American Political Institutions This course will give us another view of the British system and US one. Outline of the course → 2 main parts : Part I - British Institutions and Part II - US Institutions. Goal of course → understand how the system works and show us historical reasons which lead to it. Part I : British Institutions ≠ lectures : first → about the monarchy, second one → parliament, third one → executive branch, fourth one → UK (if UK is still united or not, notion of devolution) fifth one → Brexit: the UK and Europe 1°) LECTURE ONE : THE MONARCHY UK → constitutional monarchy. But what does that mean ? Definition of a constitutional monarchy : is a system of gvt, a state in which the head of state is a monarch, and shares his power with a constitutionally organized gvt. (Republic : head of state = PR) I. The role of the sovereign nowadays Role of the queen → highly symbolic. 3 branches of gvt : the executive branch (gvt) the legislative branch (parliament) – House of Lord + House of Commons the judicial branch (the courts and judges) Symbol of the monarchy recurrent (ex : crown on top of the supreme court symbol, ''Her majesty government'') A) The Sovereign and the Executive Branch What role does the sovereign play in the executive branch ? --- To watch : The Queen (S. Frears 2006) => Queen not very warm, meeting short, shows a bit her superiority, used to be called ''distant'' (reputation of queen E. the II.) Movie is about how the monarchy reacted to Diana's death. Deals with institutions, power, British humor… Relationships between queen and executive branch Her Majesty’s government Power of the Queen in the ex. branch → appoint the PM and the Cabinet (real Power). The United Kingdom’s government is composed by Her Majesty’s government. The Royal Prerogative The Sovereign has retained some powers called prerogatives = privilege, special right of queens and kings. Allows the sovereign to make certain decisions without the approval of Parliament. Head of the armed forces The Sovereign is also the head of the armed forces. B) The Sovereign and the Legislative Branch What role does the sovereign play in the legislative branch ? --- Royal Assent The Queen must give her royal assent, and needs to give her approval for a bill to be passed by parliament, so it becomes law. The Queen (or sovereign) opens and prorogues (= suspends) every parliamentary sessions every year = Speech of the Queen State of Opening of Parliament : Sovereign reads a speech, explaining what laws their Govt plans to enact in the coming year. Purpose → historical meaning (even the speech is written by the gvt). Always talk as ''my gvt''. In this procesion, many historical symbols, royal symbols... Queen's speech is really symbolic, here to show the relationship between the legs. And ex. Branch with the Queen. Laws made in the name of the queen (or a sovereign) No monarch have the right to enter in the House of commons C) The Sovereign and the Judicial Branch What role does the sovereign play in the judicial branch ? --- Sovereign = is the fount (source) of justice, justice is made in her name - just like bills The courts run in the name of the queen (''her Majesty's Court, her Majesty’s Tribunal Service'') Most important judges are appointed by the sovereign Criminal cases are initiated by the Crown Prosecut° Service, on behalf of the crown  How much real power does the Monarch really have ? Executive branch In theory, she does have a lot of power. In practice/reality, she barely has no power at all. In the executive branch, she always respects the decision of the election of the PM and the results of the Prime Minister and the Cabinet. In theory, she officially appoints the Prime Minister and the Cabinet BUT in reality... PM = leader of the majority party in the House of Commons. PM tells the Sovereign who to appoint as minister (so she doesn't really ''appoint'’) The Queen is not allowed to pronounce an opinion on them. She is also supposed to appoint the cabinet but in reality the PM does this job In reality, the gvt and the PM are more powerful than the queen, they’re the real boss. In theory, she has royal prerogatives BUT in reality… The Royal Prerogative powers are almost all exercised on the advice of the Gvt In theory, she is the head of the armed forces BUT in reality… any important decisions about the army are made by the Gvt. CC° about executive branch → Queen must do what the gv says cause he has the real power Legislative branch In theory, a bill passed through Parliament needs Royal Assent to become law BUT in reality… Royal Assent is a formality, because the sovereign ALWAYS assents ( the only time a monarch refused to release a law was in the ​18th century) It shows how the monarch has to obey the government. This means that, in effect, all laws pass through her hands but she does not make those laws.  In theory, Q reads State of opening of the Parliament and opens and prorogues every parliamentary sessions every year a BUT in reality… Her speech is actually written by members of the gvt despite the fact that the Queen has the power and authority to dissolve her Government, it never happens. The decision to prorogue or dissolve the Parliament is determined by law (elections every 5 years) The Fix Term Parliament Act released in 2011 determines that a new Government has to be elected every five year which shows that the Queen does not have a real power Judicial branch In theory, the Queen is supposed to appoint most of the judges BUT in reality… almost all judges are named by the Judicial Appointments Commission - JAC makes list of candidates - Gvt gets list and picks candidates - Monarch gets gvt's list and appoints CC° CC° → The Queen's main job is only symbolic. The monarch used to have a lot more power, but that's not the case anymore. Lost it.''The sovereign reigns but does not rule'' - represent the state but does not govern - That's why the monarchy is not really contested today. Brings money and a very sense of continuity. D) How did the Monarch come to lose its power ? It is a gradual historical process (monarchy strengthened its power during Renaissance), british history is made of conflict between the monarch and the parliament, centuries of conflict, crisis between both of them. 1215 → First conflict, rebellion against King John (John Lackland) 1649 → King Charles I is executed for treason. The only king who has been beheaded. 1688 → Crown taken by a catholic, James the Second, and then given to William the Third. It’s the ''Glorious Revolution'' II. A short history of the monarchy Feudal  System Pyramid of Power (photo). The King needed the support of the nobles, and couldn't really act alone. A) The Norman invasion in 1066 => King Harold (a saxon) defeated a Scandinavian invasion in the north, but however, he was defeated himself in the south at the Battle of Hasting by William The Conqueror (the duke of Normandy) with the help of noble families (bring money and soldiers), and William The Conqueror took control of most of England and Wales. Then, he became King of England, and the Normans started to invade England (the battle was followed by a Norman invasion). All of this was possible because of the feudal system. Noble families were rewarded with lands and King Wiliam was protected by noble families. The relations between a King and his nobles were not always easy if : if he asked them for too much money or military service if he confiscated their lands or lost them in battle if he abused his royal power th At the beginning of the 13 century, King John did all of that and lost most of his french lands, abuse of his royal power, and got in trouble with the Church (he was excommunicated) The barons’ rebellion 1215 → nobles rebel against King John and make him sign a document. Defeat the King and force him to sign a document promising that he will never again abuse his royal power against them : this is the''Magna Carta''  THE MAGNA CARTA, 1215 Peace treaty between King – Barons – Church Fix limits on King's powers King must respect the freedom of the Church King cannot excessively tax feudal lords Kings cannot have a freeman detained arbitrarily (Habeas corpus) and must provide trial by jury (all individuals had the right to stand a fair trial and thanks to Magna Carta, they were protected from arbitral judgement). King must accept a council of 25 barons to ensure execution of Magna Carta provisions. The significance of Magna Carta Very significant symbolically in the long term : Main principles established : King's arbitrary power is limited RULE OF LAW (état de droit) The King is not above the law, he is subject to it it should be noted that MC had really little effects in the short term (but on the long term yes) and that MC only effective on free men. Necessity of a consultative body for the King of 25 barons desire to become parliament creation of universal fundamental rights freedom from detention jury trial B) The Tudors 13th, 14th, 15th -> unstable times for kings. Powerful noble families wanted the throne. 2 kings were overthrown, and then a civil war began between two rival factions. Noble rebels -> 2 families in competition to take the throne. - The house of York (emblem -> the white rose) - The house of Lancasters (emblem -> red rose) = civil war between 1455 and 1485 1485 -> end of the war of Roses and beginning of the Tudor Dynasty => Henry Tudors of Lancaster married Elisabeth of York and became Henry VII. Henry VII -> (1485-1509) ending the feudal system, broken cause the pyramide couldn’t stand anymore (the king didn’t depend on the nobles anymore) - he banned noble families from having private armies and developed royal army - Reduced royal spending (to be less dependant on taxes paid by the nobles) - Created a special court to try traitors. The consolidation of Royal Power by Henry VIII - Henry VII was succeeded by his son, Henry VIII - Henry VIII officialised the union between Wales and England through the Act of Union (1536) -that led to the creation of the UK- ​= bigger kingdom (divided Wales into 33 (...), applied English law and language in court and allowed walsh people to take part in english affairs) - He established the Privy Council = a bigger gvt (a cabinet style council to help him govern) - He placed himself at the head of the Church through the Act of Supremacy (1534). He effectively replaced the Pope and then declared himself Head of state and Head of the church => creation of the Church of England (aka the Anglican Church) - A bold move which had several causes The pope had no authority anymore -> consolidated his fuckin poweeeer Why such an abrupt break from Rome ? - First, was married to Catherine of Aragon but no male children (no male heir) - Then he had an affair with Anne Boleyn and Henry set upon divorcing his wife to marry his mistress for the child she was carrying, in order to be the legitimate heir to the throne. = rupture with Catholic Church : reformation => protestantism = makes the King free to remarry (1534 : act of Supremacy makes the king head of the anglican church) = makes the King more powerful : politically : only god is above him and financially : he has confiscated all the Catholic Church’s property and wealth  Henry VIII’s Legacy more royal power and less national unity - division emerged between Protestants and Catholics - Divis° also emerged between radical and moderate Protestants (anglicans vs presbyterians) - eventually led to Civil War Henry VIII’s Successors When Henry VIII died, he left the country in a poor state, economically, politically, religiously. Edward VI (1547-53) - pursued the reform of the church - came on the throne at 9, he was a fragile kid, not very strong or even interested in politics. Edward grew up in a protestant environnement because his teacher was protestant, this explains why when he came to power, Edward imposed Protestantism as the new religion, a decision that led to multiple issues later because Edward’s sister were also divided religiously. Edward died at a very young age, when he was only 13. His sister, Mary took place on the throne. Mary Ist (1553-58) - re-established the Catholic Church - violent measures used (killed 300 Protestant -> burned them) ‘’Bloody Mary’’ Elisabeth Ist (1558-1603) - re-established the Anglican church (unlike her sister Mary) - period of relative religious stability (didn’t kill catholics, repressive measures) C) The Stuarts (1603-1714): the monarchy clashes with parliament (the end of the tudor Dynasty) 1603 ⇢ Elizabeth I dies (the Virgin Queen = no heir) ahah virgin ??? lmfao Queen succeeded by cousin James VI of Scotland - James I of England ⇢ Stuart dynasty  ⇢ believed in the divine rights of the kings. His reign is marked with growing conflicts with the Parliament. The new king had a very clear idea of his role : a divinely-anointed king and an absolution vision of monarchy Parliament at the time ⇢ wanted more political powers (btw Parliament was composed of people becoming wealthier…) Didn’t want to be ignored by the king, a clash was then inevitable between the Parliament and the King. - King wanted more money - Parliament didn’t want to give much, but wanted more power, make decisions. The King disagreed. The king needed parliament approval to raise takes and impose new ones. He approved only in exchange for a bigger power in the gvt. - He wanted more protestant laws - He wanted more alliances with protestant countries. - Parliament wanted to limit the royal prerogative. Charles I and Parliament James I managed to avoid a direct conflict with Parliament His son charles I was not so successful Charles I wanted to rule without Parliament Parliament fought hard to resist this He accused nine Parliamentarians of treason (ouch) - Arrested them and prorogued (=suspended) Parliament - He ruled for 11 years on his own Prorogation ⇢ final term for the end of a parliament session D) The English Civil War and the Commonwealth Step 1 - Because of the war against Scottish rebels in 1640, Charles I asked the Parliament for money. Step 2 - In 1641, Catholics rebelled in Ireland. Parliament then refuses to raise taxes unless Charles signs a bill forcing him to call Parliament regularly = King refuses, P in rebellion mode. King is afraid Pt will plot against him with the army. Parliament was afraid that Charles would use his army to dissolve P. Part 3 - The path towards a civil war - P openly refuses to obey the King. King wants plotters arrested ⇢ enters P with soldiers ⇢ suspects have fled ⇢ no cooperat° from remaining members ⇢ King declares war on P = CIVIL WAR (1642-1651) Royalists vs Parliamentarians Parliament raised an army, led by Olivier Cromwell King captured 1649 : King’s trial by P ⇢ king executed for treason The commonwealth (1649) : England as a Republic Monarch replaced by a Council of State headed by Cromwell but divisions bt radicals (want more reforms) and conservatives (return to monarchy) Cromwell’s son unable to stay in power SOO : replaced by Charles II Monarchy restored (1660) E) The Restoration (1660-1689) and the Glorious Revolution Parliament invited Charles II to resume the throne (adieu l’égo du P) Parliament was now in a much stronger position than before the Civil War It was notably able to legislate with authority on religious matter e.g. : Favoured Anglicans and discriminating against non-Anglicans BUT … This created tension with Charles II. He was married to a catholic and wanted to relax anti-catholic laws. James II (1685-1688) - Charles II’s son Conflict over religious freedom - James II : suspended anti-catholic laws - Parliament opposed From bad to worse ⇢ James II converted to catholicism ➝ A catholic dynasty ? no ! - parliament contacted William of Orange (married to king’s daughter Mary) - offered him the throne ➝ James fled, so ➝ Willy on the throne The Glorious Revolution Parliament assembled A declaration of Rights was drawn up Condition : William and Mary had to first agree to abide by this before being crowned Coronation in february 1689 The declaration of Rights became the Bill of Rights The Bill of Rights (1689) Parliament’s grievances (=doléances) with King James II Rights which the crown cannot violate - Parliament must give its consent to any change in the law proposed by the monarch - only parliament can raise taxes - members of parliament (MPs) cannot be prosecuted for what they say in Parliament - No excessive punishments can be imposed - Parliament must be held regularly and by free election The Significance of the Bill of Rights, the Fundamental constitutional text : Notion of Parliamentary sovereignty. The law made by Parliament can only be invalidated by it. The Monarch, the Government and the courts are all subjects to Parliament’s laws. - the law made by Parliament can only be invalidated by Parliament - the monarch, the government and the courts subject to Parliament’s laws. The significance of the Bill of Rights Inspired other constitutions : - heads of state must be subject to the law - citizens have rights which cannot be taken away. if rights are denied, they can/must rebel against the head of state and replace him. Bill of Rights inspired other texts all around the world such as the Constitution of USA (cf. Amendment 8th): Heads of state are under the law, citizens have fundamental rights and if these rights are denied, citizens can/must rebel against the head of state. Act of Settlement (1701) Concerns the rules of succession : sStates that the sovereign cannot be a catholic and  that illegitimate or adopted persons (bastards) cannot succeed to the throne either 2013 : an heir can now marry a catholic F) The Transformation of the Monarchy King George I (frome Hanover dynasty) was bad-speaking English and not interested in governing left the work to a group of ministers headed by the Prime Minister (at the time wasn’t the King’s pick but only the leader of the majority) After Georges I’s reign, the Monarch lost the executive power. A ceremonial Monarchy From Queen Victoria (1837-1901) to know : - a way of rallying the people and glorifying the nation - the monarch = a consensual non-political figure CONCLUSION Monarchy has no real power today : he lost the political battle against Pt Pt sovereign = only symbolic role : parliament decides how the country is governed cornerstone of the British constitution Parliamentary sovereignty means that : - no law passed by Parliament can be disapplied in the courts (unless it violates another Act of Parliament) Parliament can make and unmake laws as it likes PS : What is the British Constitution ? no single document called the Constitution the British C° drawn from several different sources (statute law, customs…) It is : - uncodified - flexible - subordinate to the legislature Very different from the American Constitution End of Lecture 1 The Monarchy  2°) LECTURE TWO : Legislative Branch OUTLINE : I. Introduction and a little history II. How do you get a seat in Parliament 1 - The House of Commons 2 - The House of Lords III. How Parliament works 1 - Who presides over the House of Commons and the House of Lords ? 2 - What Parliament does IV. Political parties in Parliament I. Introduction and a little history Parliamentary Sovereignty - a Reminder Parliament won the political struggle against the Monarchy This established parliamentary sovereignty Parliament is sovereign The other branches of Government are subordinate to it. It is the cornerstone of the british Constitution. Composition of Parliament : The House of Commons - “The Lower House” - composed of members of Parliaments (MPs) The House of Lords - “The Upper House” - Composed of Lords, also known as “peers”. Both cannot exist without the other. The two chambers are interdependent, complementary. Parliament is in Westminster’s palace, in the centre of London. Since when has Parliament existed ?  Kings often “took council” to looked for advice and assistance from the powerful people in society A tradition dating back to pre-Norman times (older than William the Conqueror’s invasion -1066) At that time, early Norman Kings called it the Magnum Concilium - Composed of nobles and bishops - the richest and most powerful subjects which could advise the king and agree to pay money to him (cf feudal contract). But they didn’t always agree with him During the early 13th century representatives of the shires (counties = départements)were summoned occasionally (called “knights of the shire”) From time to time, representatives of certain boroughs (towns) were summoned (called “burgesses”) They were summoned to relay what was happening in the country, but also to allow the King to raise new taxes which they consented to. In 1264 Simon de Montfort organised a rebellion against Henry III - similar to the rebellion against King John (cf Magna Carta) De Montfort and a group of nobles wanted to reassert the Magna Carta : Henry III was captured and In 1265, to strengthen his cause, de Montfort summoned simultaneously the lords, the bishops, the knights and burgesses to assemble together. This is considered by many to be the first assembly which resembles Parliament. De Montfort’s rebellion failed but a precedent had been established When did Parliament divide into two chambers ? The rebellion was a partial defeat. Partial because on one hand, Henry III came back on the throne and regained political control. After Henry III, he held parliaments fairly frequently. But on the other hand, the assembly of all the representatives kept his tradition Parliament became a place where grievances against the Crown could be expressed.  In around 1332, Parliament began to assemble as two separate chambers - the knights and burgesses made up the House of Commons - the nobles and bishops made up the House of Lords 300 years later, when Charles I refused to rule with Parliament, he was breaking an established tradition. The balance of power between the two chambers This can be seen in the way Parliament assembles for the Queen’s speech today. - Lords at the front - MPs at the back The balance of power eventually shifted in the 19th and 20th centuries II. How do you get a seat in Parliament In the House of Commons, the procedure is fairly simple. - you need to be elected at a general election There are 650 constituencies (circonscription) in the UK - 533 in England - 59 in Scotland - 40 in Wales - 18 in Northern Ireland Each elects one MP What electoral system is used in the UK ? It is called the First Past The Post System (FPTP) A very simple system where you go to a polling station and choose one candidate from a list of candidates and you put an X beside their name. The candidate with the most number of votes wins Criticisms of FPTP It does not give a very representative Parliament You don’t need 50% of the electorate to vote for you  You just need to get more votes than anybody else Some MPs have a very low share of the popular vote The government almost always has a majority of seats in parliament but hardly ever wins a popular majority of votes - no government since WWII has received a popular majority FPTP also makes it hard for small parties to be represented Example of 2015 Election The Conservative Party : - 50.9% of seats - 36.9% of the popular vote UKIP - 12.6% of the popular vote - only won 1 seat The SNP - 8.6% of seats in Parliament - Only 4.7% of the popular vote Advantages of FPTP It prevents radical parties from entering Parliament It is easy to understand It generally provides stable majorities ○ Makes single-party government possible ○ Generally gives parties a strong majority An alternative vote system has been proposed instead and referendum was held in 2011 but 68% voted to keep FPTP. When are elections held ? The Queen does not decide the date of the general elections. The date is fixed by the Fixed Term Parliament Act (2010) on the first Thursday of May, every 5 years. Exceptions : - If the Government loses a no-confidence motion (= the House refuses to give the govt its confidence) - If the House votes a motion by a 2/3 majority to hold a general election. The Snap Election of 2017 Theresa May called a snap election in April. She thought she would win a stronger majority in Parliament to negotiate better Brexit. Only 13 MP’s voted against the election. However, contrary to Theresa May’s thoughts, the Conservatives lost seats. After this election, no party had a majority in the Parliament (proof of total division of the UK). Who has the right to vote ? Any British citizen over the age of 18 residing in the UK. - The age limit has been 18 since 1969 - Women won the right to vote in 1919 Citizens of the commonwealth or from the Republic of Ireland residing in the UK Becoming a member of the House of Lords - There are different types of Lords. - Before 1958 and the Life Peerage Act, almost all peers were hereditary. Appointment of Life Peers Two main types of appointment : - Political appointment by parties - Non-political appointment by the House of Lords Appointments Commission Political Appointments These generally take place when Parliament is dissolved or when the PM resigns. Each party decides how they will select their appointee : Generally, appointments are made as a reward for works done as an MP or party official or money given to the party. These peers are called working peers. They vote along party lines (they must agree with their party’s opinion) Appointments by the House of Lords Appointments Commission The HLAC selects appointees (= candidats retenus) based upon their contribution to public life (in the field of business, health, academia, culture, inter-faith relations etc..) These peers bring their expertise in a certain area to the House of Lords. - They are called the People’s peers, also known as crossbenchers. - They don’t vote along party lines, so they are more independent than working peers.  Another (unusual) category of peers Hereditary peers and life peers form the Lords Temporal, in opposition with the Lords Spiritual (bishops and archbishops of the Church of England = a legacy of the past, who usually defend the weaker members of society) House of Lords Reform in 1999 Number of peers reduced from 1330 to 669. All those peers removed were hereditary peers, only 92 hereditary peers left. Life peers now make up most peers. HLAC also selects people’s peers and oversees the appointees for working peers. III. When does Parliament sit ? Elections in May Begins with the State Opening of Parliament (Queen’s Speech) Over 12 months Ends with the Prorogation of Parliament (few weeks) Recesses (= time off) take place to give MP’s time off at various times during the year. Exceptional Times because of Brexit - From May 2017 to October 2019, in an attempt to get Brexit legislation passed. - In August 2019, Boris Johnson decided to prorogue Parliament. He said it was in order to “introduce new legislative proposals in a Queen’s Speech”, while his opponents said he was “trying to silence Parliament” Who presides over the House of Commons? The Speaker has a role which is almost as old as Parliament. He is elected by MP’s. - He must be impartial, so he has to resign from his political party permanently. - He obviously has to manage debates - He also must vote to keep Status Quo when there is a tied vote (= égalité des voix) Who presides over the House of Lords? The Lord or Lady Speaker. He/she is elected by the peers. His/her role is not as important as the Speaker of the House of Commons. The current one is The Baroness Evans of Bowes Park. Types of Bills  Public Bills : introduced by a secretary of state or a minister. Can also be introduced in both houses (this is the case for most important bills). Fully supported by the govt (often a part of their election manifesto). It is the equivalent of Projet de Loi. Private Member’s Bills : Not many passed every year. - Introduced by an MP not in the Government. Equivalent of Proposition de Loi. - Sometimes on a sensitive topic that divides Government (like the Abolition of Death Penalty in 1965 or the Abortion Act 1967). The govt can block any PMB it is opposed to. The Legislative Process Almost the same in both houses: - The First Reading - The Second Reading - Committee Stage - Report Stage - The Third Reading The two most important stages – Second Reading and Committee Stage Second reading : The general principles of the bill are discussed. It takes place in the main chamber (example of same-sex marriage bill). Committee stage : About 20 MPs in the House of Commons. A committee of the whole house in the House of Lords. - The goal of the Committee is to discuss the details of the bill (its workability) - to ask questions to the minister who introduced the bill - to make some amendments. How many public bills do not pass the House of Commons ? None. The House of Commons do amendments, but generally it never stops the progression of a public bill, because the Government usually has the majority in the house. The Parliamentary ping-pong If the originating chamber disagrees, the process of parliamentary ping-pong begins : - Discussion between the two chambers in search of a compromise. - Equivalent of navette parlementaire.  Generally, the ping-pong always ends with a compromise. If no compromise is found, the bill dies. However, the Government can reintroduce the same bill in the following year. The House of Lords cannot block it a second time. The House of Lord’s limited power to block legislation - This is based on an Act of Parliament from 1911 amended in 1949. It reduced the power of the Lords to block legislation (can only block a bill for one year). - It is also based on a constitutional convention : The Salisbury Convention, that says that any bill with an electoral promise cannot be blocked by the House of Lords (example of the EU Referendum Act 2015) What’s a Constitutional convention ? ⇒ It’s an unwritten rule of Government. It cannot be enforced in a court of law. If it’s violated, it creates a constitutional crisis (example of 1909). How the House of Commons became more powerful? Historical background : The 19th century saw electoral reform in the UK. At the same time education levels began to rise. 1906 General Election : The Liberal Party campaigned on a progressive program. They won a strong majority, and wanted to implement their policies for what they needed to be financed. 1909 Budget – The People’s Budget The Government introduced its budget plan to finance its measures. The budget was passed by the House of Commons but was rejected by the House of Lords (mostly conservatives). This rejection was a violation of the Salisbury Convention. In response to that, the Liberals called a snap election. The House of Lords agreed to vote for the budget, and the Liberal seized the opportunity to weaken the Lords’ power. Passage of the Parliament Act in 1911 The Parliament Bill was introduced in 1910, it limited the Lords power to block legislation : - No power to block budgets - Could block other legislation for two years maximum. The Lords refuse to pass the bill. The Liberals called another election (they won again). The Lords still threatened to block the bill. King George V then threatened to flood the House of Lords with Liberal peers. Faced with this threat, the House of Lords finally accepted. In 1949 a new Parliament Act was passed that reduced the House of Lords’ power to block legislation for one year maximum. This Act has only been used four times since 1949. Holding the Government to Account The most important ministers sit in the House of Commons. It’s performed through oral or written questions to ministers. The questions can press for action, look for information or call on ministers to defend their decisions and policies. Most questions are written. Prime Minister’s Questions take place every Wednesday for half an hour. Example : Corbyn asked Theresa May a question about her meeting with Trump. More specifically, he asked her about Trump’s order banning any citizen from 6 predominantly Muslim countries from coming into the country. Corbyn finally criticized May for being too docile in front of Trump. Holding Debates The are four main type of debates: - Emergency debates - Adjournment debates - Westminster debates - Annual debates IV- Political Parties in Parliament a) National Political Parties The Conservative Party : Also known as the Tory Party. Led by Boris Johnson, the party contains a huge range of opinions on many areas (such as social policy, Brexit…) The Labour Party : Created in 1900, it’s a “left-wing” party moved to the right under Tony Blair’s “new labour”. Led actually by Sir Keir Starmer. The Liberal Democrats: A centrist party, in favour of social justice but with minimum state intervention. Led by Sir Ed Davey and Mark Pack. Anti-Brexit party. The United Kingdom Independence Party : A far-right party, in favour of limiting  immigration. Led by Freddy Vachha since June 2020. Previously led by Nigel Farage. Unpopular party (some members are racists or xenophobic) : 1,8% of the popular votes in 2017 (won so seat). The Brexit Party (founded in 2018) : failure of ‘UKIP’ led Nigel Farage to create it. His main mandate is to achieve a hard Brexit. This party was very popular in 2019 and may explain B. Johnson’s choice to quit Europe hardly. Change UK (founded in 2019): Created by conservatives, their main objective is to avoid Brexit. Currently led by Anna Soubry. Because of the effective Brexit, ‘Change UK’ is in fact not very successful. b) Scottish, Welsh, and Northern Irish Parties The Scottish National Party : Their main policy objective is Scottish independence (referendum in 2014, unsuccessful). Left-wing party opposed to Brexit. Led by Nicola Sturgeon. 3rd party in the Parliament. Plaid Cymru (pronounce: “Plaid comry”) : “The Party of Wales”. Its main objective is Welsh autonomy. Led by Adam Price. The Democratic Unionist Party : Northern Irish socialist conservative party. Its main goal is to keep Northern Ireland in the UK. Led by Arlene Foster. However, it’s an anti-homosexuality and anti-abortion part (very socially conservative) -pas des vrais gauchos du coup- Sinn Féin : Main party of Northern Ireland. In favour of the reunification of the two Irelands. Socially progressives, contrary to ‘DUP’. Led by May Lou McDonald. In 2017, it won 7 seats in the national election, but it rejected all these, symbol of protestation against British rules. c) How political parties operate in the House of Commons? There are very few surprises during the votes in the Parliament due to the ‘’whip system’’ : - all members of a party must vote for their leader’s choice, without what they must resign. - The whip system puts pressure on the MPs to vote in accordance with the party line and makes them a very strong discipline inside the parties.  Parliamentary Time Parliament is regulated by ‘’standing orders’’ (“règlement parlementaire”). These rules can determine, for the example of the 14th one, how parliamentary time should be shared (around 155 days per year). CONCLUSION In theory, the Legislative branch in the most powerful branch of Government. In practice, activities are controlled by the Government. - Parliament’s main powers are to modify controversial legislation, scrutinise (=examiner) the Government’s actions and draw public attention to certain issues. Epilogue – Is Parliament taking back control? Under the minority government, Parliament has a lot more power over the executive. The government has suffered numerous defeats (especially on Brexit). Growing tensions between Parliament and the Government. Theresa May criticised Parliament for refusing to back her withdrawal agreement. She accused Parliament of not listening to the citizens when she was. In August 2019, B. Johnson said he would prorogue Parliament for five weeks (which is a much longer period than normal). End of Lecture 2 Lecture 3 : The Executive Branch A. How the Govt is formed and the historical reasons for this Who forms the Government? The PM (which is the leader of the first party in Parliament) takes his power only when he’s appointed by the Queen. Once it’s done, the PM chooses his government (ministers). The The History of the role of Prime Minister : George I - A hands-off approach to government(= non-interventionnisme) George Ist was a German. He didn’t speak English, and most of all, he wasn’t interested in governing. He appointed then Robert Walpole as minister for finance. He was the man who led the executive branch instead of the King. The Prime Minister’s residence The King gave to Robert Walpole a residence in 10 Downing Street. Here, every week meets the Cabinet. B. What happens where there is no majority in Parliament? This type of situation is called ​“a hung parliament”. Two solutions exist: - A coalition government : For example, in 2010, Conservative Party and Liberal Democrats formed a coalition and, with this compromise, formed the Government. However, a coalition government is very often balanced with tensions. - A minority government : When the government rules with no overall majority, another party can agree to vote with the government’s line on important issues, in exchange for policy pledges or money. Example of the Conservative-DUP minority government (2017) : Theresa May’s party failed to get a majority. She then did a deal with the DUP in exchange for £1 million. C. What the Prime Minister does The PM appoints the Government, oversees Government’s policy, and represents the UK internationally. The Prime Minister and the Cabinet The PM decides who sits in Cabinet. He also chairs (= préside) Cabinet’s meetings and decides its priorities (which legislative reforms and the department’s funding). The PM can, finally, decide to change the Cabinet’s composition: “Cabinet reshuffle” (= remaniement ministériel) Power to set up Public Inquiries The PM can set up an independent public inquiry to look into an issue (in case of major catastrophe like the Grenfell Tower’s fire).  D. The Cabinet and the Civil Service The Cabinet The Cabinet is composed of the most important government ministers : “secretaries of states” They control government departments and are assisted with the “ministers of state” (secrétaires d’État). [NB: “minister” is often used for both secretaries and ministers]. There are 23 members in Cabinet, and they meet every Wednesday at 10 Downing Street, over the PM’s control, to discuss policy objectives, taxation, and public spending. The Civil Service The Civil Service is composed of experts who provide assistance with politics and law. It plays a very important role in the running of departments. E. What do government departments do? 1. Preparing Legislation - Departments prepare public bills. It closes consultat° between ministers and civil service. The aim is to get a bill introduced by Pt and avoid too many amendments being made by Parliament. 2. Overseeing Agencies and Public Bodies - Executive agencies are set up by government departments. For example, the Driver license is under the authority of the Department of Transport. - All the non-departmental public bodies are set up by Parliament’s Acts. For example, the Police Complaints Commission (Police des polices) is under the authority of the Home Office (Ministère de l’intérieur) 3. Keeping Parliament and the Public Informed Minister are bound to the Ministerial Code to : - Make announcements, reveal information which is in the public’s interest to know and give honest answers to questions asked. - Ministers want to keep public opinion on their side. For this, they organise public events, use social media and speak often on TV or Radios. F. The Shadow Cabinet also known as “Her Majesty’s loyal opposition” It’s composed of members of the second biggest party in Parliament. The Shadow  Cabinet proposes alternative policies and can ask up to 4 questions to the PM, which will be priority during the session. G. How the Prime Minister can lose office After an election or a referendum defeat, the Prime Minister generally resigns (example of David Cameron in 2015 after losing the referendum on Brexit). The PM can also resign in case of internal party pressure (example of Tony Blair in 2007). What happens when a prime minister is deposed before a general election? The Party will elect a leader according to its own procedures. In the case of B. Johnson, the Tory Party (conservatives) has two separate steps : - If there’s more than two candidates, MPs vote for candidates in successive rounds. After each round, the candidate with the least number of votes is eliminated. - When there are two candidates remaining, an election is organised among Tory Party members to decide who will be leader. End of Lecture 3 The executive branch Lecture 4 : Is the United Kingdom still united? I- The origins of the UK A. Wales At the origins, Wales was under Norman laws. Henry VIII wanted to consolidate his power and created a bigger kingdom. Plus, the Tudors had Welsh origins. Then, the Act of Union (1536) made England and Wales united. B. Scotland The Union of the Crowns (1603) ⇢ unification of the three realms. Queen Elizabeth Ist died heirless. James VI of Scotland became James I of England and Ireland. But, even with the Union of the Crowns, England and Scotland remained independent sovereign states, for three reasons :  Firstly, the Union of the Crowns was not a political act of union. Secondly, England retained its own Parliament Finally, the English Pt rejected a political and constitutional union with Scotland. The Act of Union between England and Scotland is dated in 1707. With it, Scotland became part of the England and Wales’ kingdom, forming then the United Kingdom of Great Britain. This act created the Union Flag. But Scotland was still a country within a country (with its own Church, its own legal system...) Why did the two countries eventually unify ? 1. Military reasons 2. Political reasons 3. Financial reasons C. Ireland The Normans invaded Ireland in 1169 and owed loyalty to the King of Ireland. In reality, the King’s control was limited until the 16th century. Since the 17th century, Protestantism has been the dominating religion in Great Britain. But Ireland was majority catholic. England considered Ireland as a threat, because catholic other countries (like France or Spain) could use Ireland to invade England. The Protestant Plantations English response ⇢ to send Protestant landowners to Ireland and occupy lands owned by Catholics. They owned the land but did not settle there. Many in the North. Protestants outnumbered the catholics in the country The Act of Union Despite the plantations ⇢ pbs in Southern Ireland Rebellions (1641, 1690, 1798) ⇢ more control by the UK including Ireland = Act of Union 1801 Parliament in Ireland is now dissolved Irish Independence  The Home Rule movement in Ireland (19th c.) - HR = transferring powers to Ireland BUT keeping Ireland in the UK In the 19th century several unsuccessful attempts to enact the Home rule movement. It is very far from independant. Tensions arose between nationalists that were in favor of the Home rule and protestants that wished to stay in the UK. The Ulster Question Ulster is the North region of Ireland. Protestants from Ulter didn’t want to be governed by the south of Ireland because of their Catholicism. They opposed to the Home Rule and asked for a second government in Ireland (one for the catholic south, the other for the protestant north) The Irish Revolution Protestants in the north ⇢ did not want to be governed by the south (Catholic) of the country (long history of sectarian discrimination and violence) Refused a single government for the island negotiated a separate govt in the North So they organised a revolution, known as The 1916 Easter Rising A lot of Irish people initially opposed the rebellion Bad treatment of the rebels by the British gvt ⇢ turned public opinion and made Irish’s opinion agree with the separatists 1918 general election won Refused to take seats Beginning of the by the separatists in British Pt and war of Independence established assembly in Dublin (The Dàil) Progress of Irish Independence during the 20th century 1921 : Anglo-Irish Treaty : Irish Independence 1937 : Irish Constitution - Northern Ireland : govern themselves but part of the UK ( 6 counties) - UK : became therefore the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland - 1949 : the  Republic of Ireland left the Commonwealth CONCLUSION UK : composite country ≠ histories and identities Demand for more autonomy from these nations isn't surprising (≠ customs, cultures…) II. From unity to division 1. The move towards devolution The four parts of the UK : represented in the two houses (H of C- BUT majority of seats represents England + the 2 main parties are English ⇢ Scotland and Wales wanted power to be devolved, because according to them, it was unfair that everything was happening in Westminster, in London What is devolution ? Devolution = transfer of certain powers from central government to another authority within the state In the UK, transfer from England to another nation in the union (scotland or Wales) Devolution in Scotland During the 1970s, the call of devolution was raised with the SNP power. In 1979, a referendum failed about the devolution Support for SNP going up Devolution referendum 1979 = Failure 1997 election : Tony Blair promised to organise a devolution referendum for Scotland. This is what happened because Blair won the election. The result was an evidence : massive vote in favour of devolution - 75% The Scotland Act - 1998 Established a Parliament in Edinburgh, and an executive with a first minister : Nicola Sturgeon England gave powers to the Scottish executive (called “devolved matters) : -  Agriculture - Education - Health ⇢ other powers remained kept with Westminster, (such as taxation, foreign policy, defence, etc…) and were called the “reserved matters”. The Independence Movement SNP increasingly popular and asked for more independence UK govt agreed independence referendum for Scotland (2014) - 55% voted to stay in the UK - 45% voted for independence Scotland and Brexit One reason why Scotland people voted against independence ⇢ to remain in the EU In the Brexit referendum ⇢ 62% of Scottish voters chose to remain in the EU Call for a new independence referendum : because of Brexit, Scottish people ask for a new independence referendum. Devolution in Wales Independence movement ⇢ never as strong. Why ? - Wales = part of the union for a lot longer than Scotland Depends more on England economically Devolution referendum 1979 - 20% of voters favored devolution Devolution Referendum 1997 (Wales) In 1997, another devolution referendum was organised with 50.3% in favour. This concluded in the Wales Act in 1998, which created : A Welsh assembly and executive Current first minister - Mark Drakeford (labour Northern Ireland gained some self-government in 1921, in part of the Home Rule. Northern Ireland Parliament and Executive were then established, same as Scotland. Problems in Northern Ireland System of government in Northern Ireland is quite problematic : - Power in the hands of a small majority ⇢ The Protestant unionist community - A large minority treated as second class citizens ⇢ The Catholic nationalist community  Tensions begin to surface 1960s ⇢ Catholics began to protest No reaction from the Northern Irish government Protests often broken up Tension increased between the two communities 1971 ⇢ British army sent in to maintain peace B army ⇢ made it worse Sided with Protestant unionists January 1972 ⇢ B Army opened fire on a group of protesters - Became known as Bloody Sunday ⇢ escalation of violence :Northern Ireland Parliament suspended + Direct rule from London imposed “The Troubles” and the Good Friday Agreement 30 years of violence in NI Over 3,500 people killed 1995 : Pdt Clinton visits Londonderry to talk about peace making 1998 ⇢ Good Friday Agreement - Established a Northern Ireland Assembly - Created a system of government which would ensure power-sharing A Special Problem - Brexit and Northern Ireland Majority of people in NI voted remain - 55% More radical members of the unionist community ⇢ for the DUP Raised two problem - A long-term problem - A short-term problem The long-term Problem - could Brexit lead to Irish reunification? A majority of people in NI want to remain in the EU The Republic of Ireland = part of the EU Solution for “remainers” = to break away from the UK and reunify with the Republic But how do you reassure the unionist community ? The Short-Term Problem - what to do about the Irish Border ? Brexit creates a border between the UK and the EU - Along the NI border If hard Brexit = problem A hard Brexit and Northern Ireland Hard Brexit = source of border issues The movement of people would be difficult, and the symbolic link between the two parts of Ireland would be broken. The British government has committed to avoid any hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Boris Johnson’s Predicament (Problem) Theresa May called a snap election in 2017 - Hoped to win a strong majority, but lost majority Had to form a minority government with the support of the DUP - Strongly unionist - In favour of a hard Brexit TM replaced = Boris Johnson PM How does Boris Johnson guarantee a hard Brexit while preventing a border between NI and the Republic of Ireland ? = seems impossible because contradictory. CONCLUSION Four distinct nations and unity in danger 1°) LECTURE FIVE : THE MONARCHY The Emergence of the European Union  EU was founded in 1957 (post-war context) by the Treaty of Rome (France, Germany, Italy, and Benelux). At this time, it was called the EEC (European Economic Community). The Emergence of the EEC The aim of the EEC is to make European states interdependent economically. This would prevent a new European conflict. EEC developed common policies in certain areas (like Agricultural of Fishing areas) EEC encouraged trade by removing barriers (creating then a common market, with the removal of tariffs and the free movement of goods). Types of EU legislation Proposed by the Commission, they’re approved by European Parliament/Council of the EU. They can take two forms : - regulation (directly applicable) - directives (need to be transposed into national law). The growth of the European Union The common market became the single market in 1986. This single market extended the principle of free movement from good to services, capitals, or people. This required even more harmonisation of legislation. Thanks to the treaty of Maastricht, the EEC became the EU in 1992. This treaty increased the powers of the EU, which were further increased by the Lisbon treaty in 2007 The Expansion of the European Union 1973 : UK, Ireland and Denmark 1981 : Greece 1986 : Spain and Portugal 1995 : Sweden, Finland and Austria 2004 : 10 countries from the ex-eastern bloc 2007 : Bulgaria and Romania 2013 : Croatia ➥ In 40 years, 22 countries joined the EU.  The history of the UK’s Relationship with the EU Why did the UK not join the EEC on its creation? - The UK had close trade links with the US. It was already part of a supranational group (the British Commonwealth). Its tradition of government was different from the European ones (it was less statist and way more liberal). Finally, the culture between UK and Europe was different too. Why did the UK change its mind? - The UK’s economy was in difficulty while the France one was going well (30 Glorieuses period) - However, in the 60s, Charles de Gaulle vetoed twice (he was afraid that the UK could compromise the common actual policy of EEC with a possible Americanisation of Europe). The UK finally joins - After De Gaulle’s resignation in 1969, the UK was able to join the EEC. - Treaty of Rome was signed in 1972 and ratified in 1973 - Many oppositions coming from the Labour Party - A referendum in 1975, the majority voted to remain. Symbolized the opposition of the UK presence in EEC (with 33% of people against). Legal Implications of the UK’s membership The entrance of UK in EEC was conditioned by two main legal implications: - The UK had to accept to apply the EEC law and recognize its superiority. - It did this by passing the European Communities Act in 1972 The two central provisions were - to recognise the superiority of EU law - An Act of Parliament had to be compatible with EU law - To allow ministers to issue secondary legislation to transpose EU directives - A more effective way than passing an Act of Parliament Significance of the European Communities Act for Parliamentary Sovereignty  This Act essentially limited the principle of parliamentary sovereignty (cf. Kelsen’s hierarchy) = - placed community law above parliament’s law The legal implications of the UK’s membership of the EEC – Factortame Came Illustration (not to know by heart): An illustration of the legal implications of the UK’s membership of the EEC - Factortame Case One of the goals of the Common Fisheries Policy was to ​prevent overfishing Quotas were imposed on each member state ○ each state could catch a limited amount of fish When Spain joined in 1986 it had to respect these quotas ○ This meant they would have to reduce their catch and loose money The Spanish fishing sector was much bigger than the UK's As a result, some Spanish fishermen set up companies in the UK and caught fish in British waters which they sold in Spain ○ They used up the quota allocated to the UK, while increasing Spain’s richness. The Factortame Case The UK Govt wanted to stop this practice : - They passed legislation to make it impossible for non-british companies to register fishing boats (The Merchant Shipping Act, 1988) Factortame would have to stop its operations in the UK They wanted to stop the MSA from being applied But this Act violated the 7th Article of the Treaty of Rome about discrimination on the basis of nationality They went to court to get an injunction The Outcome of the Factortame Case The case was eventually decided by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) - The ECJ decided in favour of Factortame - The MSA could not be applied - Conclusion : EU law prevailed over an Act of Parliament  The Seeds of Discontent Complaints about the UK’s contribution to the EU budget It received a lot less from the EU than France: “we want our own money back” (Margaret Thatcher, 1984 at EEC summit in Fontainebleau). Discontent with the EU’s growing powers Desire for more powers to be given to the EU. The President of the Commission was in favour, but M. Thatcher was totally opposed. The Enlargement of the EU Huge expansion in 2004, including relatively poor countries. It increased immigration and put a strain on British society (particularly after the financial crisis). The Further Expansion of the EU’s powers in the 90’s The EU’s powers expand to include environmental matters, consumer affairs, workers and human’s rights. The Euro and the European Central Bank were created in 1998. Economic factors UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget. Is that too much? UK wasn’t able to negotiate its own trade deals, it had to negotiate alongside the other members of the EU. The Democratic Deficit The power of initiative lies with the European Commission. The European Parliament isn’t powerful. Voter turnout in European Parliament elections is very low (as in France). The deficit implicated more treaties which were never really accepted directly by the people. When the EU wanted to establish a Constitution, Tony Blair promised a referendum to approve it (it never happened because France and Netherlands refused it). The Lisbon Treaty included a lot of the substance of the Constitution (it was ratified by Parliament). It was criticised by the Conservatives, who came to power in 2010 with the Liberal Democrats. They passed the European Union Act in 2011, which requires a referendum to be held for any transfer of powers to the EU. The financial crisis The financial crisis began in 2008. It required the Government to make cutbacks (réductions budgétaires, salariales etc..) and increased criticism of the UK’s contribution to the EU budget. The crisis also shook people’s faith in the Establishment. The Conservative Party’s Problems In 2010, they had to enter a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. They dilute some of their more conservative policies (the Lib Dems didn’t want a referendum on the EU). The Conservatives were politically exposed on their right. For the Conservatives, UKIP is a political threat. - In 2014, UKIP won the most number of seats in the EP elections. - Two Conservatives MPs defected to UKIP. In 2015, David Cameron was under pressure, so he promised an “in-out referendum” during his campaign. This allowed Conservatives to win the election. The Referendum The Conservative Government passed the EU Referendum Act in 2015. The Referendum was to be held on June 23 of 2016. It resulted in a 51.9% of votes in favour of Brexit (most all of the votes in favour were from England and Wales). Why did the Leave Campaign win ? The immigration, the cost of the EU, the democratic deficit, the loss of sovereignty and control borders are multiple reasons for the victory of the in-out referendum. To the popular opinion, the Leave Campaign was more “enthusiastic” while the Remain Campaign was based on the fear of the change. Older people, which were in favour of Brexit, tend to vote more than young people. That helped the Leave Campaign to win. But, the leaders of the Leave Campaign used misinformation, more precisely about the cost of the EU and the refugee crisis. The Aftermath of the Referendum After the referendum, David Cameron resigned, and Theresa May took his place.  The Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty outlines how a country can leave the EU. It was triggered in March 2017. By this trigger, the UK repealed the European Communities Act and had to replace all EU laws into British laws. The EU Withdrawal (retrait) Act passed in 2018 made the situation very complex. Implication for trade relations : a hard Brexit or soft Brexit A hard Brexit is a clean break with the EU, which would break all the relations between the two entities and make them stranger than the USA and Canada. A soft Brexit is a partial break with the EU. This type of break maintains part of the relationship between UK and UE. What type of Brexit did the UK opt for ? A hard Brexit : - The UK would leave the single market and the customs union (Schengen area). This would require the UK to negotiate with the EU a new trade deal based on the common standards in areas covered by free trade and tariffs on certain goods or services passing the border. - Overall, the Parliament would have to approve any deal. A special problem : Brexit and Northern Ireland Northern Ireland mostly wants to remain with the UK, this is why DUP is the 1st party there. A big problem has been created by the hard Brexit : - The gestion of the border between the UK and Ireland (part of EU): how movements of goods, services and even people would be guaranteed ? - A physical border would have to be established, as customs checks (contrôles douaniers). A border between the two Irelands could be the cause of really serious troubles. ➥ To solve this problem, Theresa May proposed a “backstop” (a safety net to ensure that no border would be ever established), that would include NI into the customs union and single market. ➥ But the DUP, which was sharing power with Theresa May’s party, disagreed with this proposal on the basis that this was impossible with their wish of maintaining union between Ireland and the UK. - Then, T. May created an all-UK backstop, which was also rejected by the Conservatives, scared of a permanent statute. - This led to May’s resignation. Boris Johnson’s approach to Brexit Possibility of a no-deal Brexit (extremely hard-Brexit) - Anyway, the UK would leave, whatever the EU can do. = This possibility caused a lot of concerns within the Conservative party. In October 2019, Boris Johnson proposed tariffs that would be paid on any goods travelling from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. These tariffs would be refunded only if the goods stayed in Northern Ireland. Boris Johnson’s deal An amendment was voted to allow more time to prepare the Brexit date. Boris Johnson postponed the vote, forcing the Parliament to legislate quickly. Brexit really happened on 31 January 2020 (with the withdrawal agreement) beginning the 11-month period of transition. Other long-term questions raised by Brexit In the short-to-medium term, all economical predictions are negatives. On the long-term, it’s quite hard to anticipate evolution. About the rights of the citizens, they won’t extremely be affected (people’s move around UE would be more difficult, however) Scotland’s independence wish could increase a lot in the close future.