Managing Requirements Engineering Risks Chapter 7 PDF

REQUIREMENTS ENGINEERING 1 JIMMA UNIVERSITY JIMMA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY FACULTY OF COMPUTING AND INFORMATICS CHAPTER SEVEN MANAGING REQUIREMENTS ENGINEERING RISKS  Topics we will cover 2  So...

REQUIREMENTS ENGINEERING 1 JIMMA UNIVERSITY JIMMA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY FACULTY OF COMPUTING AND INFORMATICS CHAPTER SEVEN MANAGING REQUIREMENTS ENGINEERING RISKS  Topics we will cover 2  Software requirements Risk  Risk Management  Elements of Risk Management  Risk Assessment  Risk Control  Risk Mitigation  Risk identification techniques  Risk resolution principles  Discussion 3  John, the project manager for the Patient Referral Tracking System at the Ministry of Health, is meeting with his lead programmer, Helen, and the lead quality tester, Biruk. All are excited about the new project, but they remembered the problems they ran into on an earlier project called Drug Distribution Tracking System.  "Remember how we didn't find out that the users hated the Drug Distribution Tracking System user interface until beta testing?" Helen asked. "It took us six weeks to rebuild it and retest it. I am sure we don't want to go through that death march again."  "That wasn't fun," John agreed. "It was also annoying that the users we talked to swore they needed a lot of features that no one has used so far. That Drug Distribution Tracking feature took three times longer to code than we expected, and we wound up throwing it out anyway. What a waste!"  "We had to rush on the Drug Distribution Tracking System and didn't have time to write detailed requirements," Biruk remembered. "Half the time the testers had to ask a programmer how some feature was supposed to work so they could test it. Then it turned out that some of the functions the programmers implemented didn't provide what the users needed anyway."  Biruk had also a suggestion "Maybe we should make a list of these problems from the Drug Distribution Tracking System so we can try to avoid them on the Patient Referral Tracking System.  "I don't know about that," John protested. "We learned a lot from the Drug Distribution Tracking System, so we probably won't have those problems again. If we write down things that could go wrong on the Drug Distribution Tracking System, it'll look like I don't know how to run a software project. I don't want any negative thinkers on this project. We have to plan for success!“  What were the problems in the development of the Drug Distribution Tracking System ?  What should they learn from the Drug Distribution Tracking System for the successful development of the Patient Referral Tracking System?  Software Requirements Risk 4 “If You Don’t Actively Attack the Risks,  Software Requirements Risk 5 The Risks Will Actively Attack You.” -Tom Gilb ………without risks there is no reward  Software Requirements 6 Risk Discussion  What is the risk?  What are the characteristics of risks?  List the typical requirement risks that you think will happen in the software development process?  What is risk management?  Software Requirements Risk 7  Risk is an expectation of loss, a potential problem that may or may not occur in the future.  A possibility of suffering from loss in requirements engineering process is called a software requirements risk.  Loss can be anything, increase in production cost, development of poor quality software, not being able to complete the project on time.  We can not eliminate the risk properly, we can try to minimize.  Two characteristics of risk  Uncertainty – the risk may or may not happen, that is, there are no 100% risks (those, instead, are called constraints)  Loss – the risk becomes a reality and unwanted consequences or losses occur  Software Requirements Risk 8  Typical requirement risks include  Misunderstanding the requirements  Insufficient user involvement  Uncertain or changing project scope and objectives  Continually changing requirements.  Dependence on an external entity, such as a subcontractor or another project providing components to be reused  Rejection of accurate estimates by managers  Insufficient visibility into project status  Ever-changing, imposed government regulations  Staff turnover  Technology risks  Types of software Requirements risks 9  Software requirements risk exists because the future is uncertain and there are many known and unknown things that cannot be incorporated in the project plan.  A software requirements risk can be of two types 1. Internal risks that are within the control of the project manager and 2. External risks that are beyond the control of project manager.  Risk Categorization – Approach #1 10  Project risks  They threaten the project plan  If they become real, it is likely that the project schedule will slip and that costs will increase  Risk factors:  Potential budgetary  Schedule personnel  Resource  Stakeholders  Project complexity and size  Degree of structural uncertainty.  Risk Categorization – Approach #1 11  Technical risks  They threaten the quality and timeliness of the software to be produced  If they become real, implementation may become difficult or impossible  Risk factors:  Potential design and implementation  Interface  Verification  Maintenance problems  Specification ambiguity  Technical uncertainty  Risk Categorization – Approach #1 12  Business risks  They threaten the practicability of the software to be built  If they become real, they jeopardize the project or the product  Risk factors:  Market risk – building an excellent product or system that no one really wants  Strategic risk – building a product that no longer fits into the overall business strategy for the company  Sales risk – building a product that the sales force doesn't understand how to sell  Management risk – losing the support of senior management due to a change in focus or a change in people  Budget risk – losing budgetary or personnel commitment  Risk Categorization – Approach #2 13  Known risks  Those risks that can be uncovered after careful evaluation of the project plan, the business and technical environment in which the project is being developed, and other reliable information sources (e.g., unrealistic delivery date)  Predictable risks  Those risks that are extrapolated from past project experience (e.g., past turnover)  Unpredictable risks  Those risks that can and do occur, but are extremely difficult to identify in advance  Requirements Risk Management 14  Risk management is a series of systematic steps that helps software team to understand and manage uncertainty or risk  Risk management is carried out to:  Identify the risk  Reduce the impact of risk  Reduce the probability or likelihood of risk  Risk monitoring  Requirements Risk 15 Management Discussion  How to reduce the impact of requirements risk, and who performs and what is the outcome?  Requirements Risk Management 16  Who Performs Risk Analysis?  Every stakeholder participates in Risk analysis management according to the role.  What is the outcome?  RMMM: Risk Mitigation, Monitoring, Management plan document.  Reactive vs. Proactive Risk Strategies 17  Reactive risk strategies  "Don't worry, I'll think of something"  The majority of software teams and managers rely on this approach  Nothing is done about risks until something goes wrong  The team then flies into action in an attempt to correct the problem rapidly (fire fighting)  Crisis management is the choice of management techniques  Proactive risk strategies  Steps for risk management are followed (see next slide)  Primary objective is to avoid risk and to have a contingency plan in place to handle unavoidable risks in a controlled and effective manner  Steps for Risk Management 18 1. Identify possible risks; recognize what can go wrong 2. Analyze each risk to estimate the probability that it will occur and the impact (i.e., damage) that it will do if it does occur 3. Rank the risks by probability and impact - Impact may be negligible, marginal, critical, and catastrophic 4. Develop a contingency plan to manage those risks having high probability and high impact  Steps for Risk Management 19 Identify possible risks; recognize what can go wrong Analyze each risk to estimate the probability that it will occur and the impact (i.e., damage) that it will do if it does occur Rank the risks by probability and impact - Impact may be negligible, marginal, critical, and catastrophic Develop a contingency plan to manage those risks having high probability and high impact  Risk Identification 20  Risk identification is a systematic attempt to specify threats to the project plan  By identifying known and predictable risks, the project manager takes a first step toward avoiding them when possible and controlling them when necessary  Generic risks  Risks that are a potential threat to every software project  Product-specific risks  Risks that can be identified only by those a with a clear understanding of the technology, the people, and the environment that is specific to the software that is to be built  This requires examination of the project plan and the statement of scope  "What special characteristics of this product may threaten our project plan?"  Risk Item Checklist 21 Used as one way to identify risks Focuses on known and predictable risks in specific subcategories (see next slide) Can be organized in several ways  A list of characteristics relevant to each risk subcategory  Questionnaire that leads to an estimate on the impact of each risk  A list containing a set of risk component and drivers and their probability of occurrence Known and Predictable Risk Categories 22  Risk Components and Drivers 23  The project manager identifies the risk drivers that affect the following risk components  Performance risk - the degree of uncertainty that the product will meet its requirements and be fit for its intended use  Cost risk - the degree of uncertainty that the project budget will be maintained  Support risk - the degree of uncertainty that the resultant software will be easy to correct, adapt, and enhance  Schedule risk - the degree of uncertainty that the project schedule will be maintained and that the product will be delivered on time  The impact of each risk driver on the risk component is divided into one of four impact levels  Negligible, marginal, critical, and catastrophic  Risk drivers can be assessed as impossible, improbable, probable, and frequent  Risk Projection (Estimation) 24  Risk projection (or estimation) attempts to rate each risk in two ways  The probability that the risk is real  The consequence of the problems associated with the risk, should it occur  The project planner, managers, and technical staff perform four risk projection steps (see next slide)  The intent of these steps is to consider risks in a manner that leads to prioritization  By prioritizing risks, the software team can allocate limited resources where they will have the most impact  Risk Projection/Estimation Steps 25 1. Establish a scale that reflects the perceived likelihood of a risk (e.g., 1-low, 10-high) 2. Delineate the consequences of the risk 3. Estimate the impact of the risk on the project and product 4. Note the overall accuracy of the risk projection so that there will be no misunderstandings  Contents of a Risk Table 26  A risk table provides a project manager with a simple technique for risk projection  It consists of five columns  Risk Summary – short description of the risk  Risk Category – one of seven risk categories (slide 12)  Probability – estimation of risk occurrence based on group input  Impact – (1) catastrophic (2) critical (3) marginal (4) negligible  RMMM – Pointer to a paragraph in the Risk Mitigation, Risk Summary Risk Category Probability Monitoring, and Management Plan Impact (1-4) RMMM (More on next slide)  Developing a Risk Table 27  List all risks in the first column (by way of the help of the risk item checklists)  Mark the category of each risk  Estimate the probability of each risk occurring  Assess the impact of each risk based on an averaging of the four risk components to determine an overall impact value (See next slide)  Sort the rows by probability and impact in descending order  Draw a horizontal cutoff line in the table that indicates the risks that will be given further attention  Assessing Risk Impact 28  Three factors affect the consequences that are likely if a risk does occur  Its nature – This indicates the problems that are likely if the risk occurs  Its scope – This combines the severity of the risk (how serious was it) with its overall distribution (how much was affected)  Its timing – This considers when and for how long the impact will be felt  The overall risk exposure formula is RE = P x C  P = the probability of occurrence for a risk  C = the cost to the project should the risk actually occur  Example  P = 80% probability that 18 of 60 software components will have to be developed  C = Total cost of developing 18 components is 25,000 Br.  RE =.80 x 25,000 = 20,000 Br.  Risk Mitigation, Monitoring, and Management 29  An effective strategy for dealing with risk must consider three issues  Risk mitigation (i.e., avoidance)  Risk monitoring  Risk management and contingency planning  Risk mitigation (avoidance) is the primary strategy and is achieved through a plan  Example: Risk of high staff turnover  30 Strategy for Reducing Staff Turnover  Meet with current staff to determine causes for turnover (e.g., poor working conditions, low pay, competitive job market)  Mitigate those causes that are under our control before the project starts  Once the project commences, assume turnover will occur and develop techniques to ensure continuity when people leave  Organize project teams so that information about each development activity is widely dispersed  Define documentation standards and establish mechanisms to ensure that documents are developed in a timely manner  Conduct peer reviews of all work (so that more than one person is "up to speed")  Assign a backup staff member for every critical technologist  The RMMM Plan 31  The RMMM plan may be a part of the software development plan or may be a separate document  Once RMMM has been documented and the project has begun, the risk mitigation, and monitoring steps begin  Risk mitigation is a problem avoidance activity  Risk monitoring is a project tracking activity  Risk monitoring has three objectives  To assess whether predicted risks do, in fact, occur  To ensure that risk aversion steps defined for the risk are being properly applied  To collect information that can be used for future risk analysis  The findings from risk monitoring may allow the project manager to ascertain what risks caused which problems throughout the project Seven Principles of Risk Management Maintain a 32 View software risks within the context of a system global and the business problem that is intended to solve perspective Take a forward- Think about risks that may arise in the future; looking view establish contingency plans Encourage open Encourage all stakeholders and users to point out communication risks at any time Integrate risk Integrate the consideration of risk into the software management process Emphasize a continuous Modify identified risks as more becomes known and process of risk add new risks as better insight is achieved management Develop a shared product A shared vision by all stakeholders facilitates better vision risk identification and assessment Encourage teamwork when Pool the skills and experience of all stakeholders managing risk when conducting risk management activities  Key Points 33  Software requirements Risk  Risk Management  Understanding Risks  Risk identification techniques  Risk resolution principles Any Question? 34