Chapter 7 Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency PDF
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Douglas College
2021
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This document is a chapter about Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency. It explains the basics of market efficiency and why it is difficult to predict stock market prices. The impact of market anomalies, bubbles, and crashes on the overall market is also explored.
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Chapter 7 Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency 1 Copyright © 2021 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency “A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, mis...
Chapter 7 Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency 1 Copyright © 2021 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency “A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation, and whim.” –Kenneth Chang “If you want to know what's happening in the market, ask the market.” –Japanese Proverb 7-2 Learning Objectives You should strive to have your investment knowledge fully reflect: 1. The foundations of market efficiency. 2. The implications of the forms of market efficiency. 3. Market efficiency and the performance of professional money managers. 4. What stock market anomalies, bubbles, and crashes mean for market efficiency. 7-3 Controversy, Intrigue, and Confusion We begin by asking a basic question: Can you, as an investor, consistently “beat the market?” It may surprise you to learn that evidence strongly suggests that the answer to this question is “probably not.” We show that even professional money managers have trouble beating the market. At the end of the chapter, we describe some market phenomena that sound more like carnival side shows, such as “the amazing January effect.” 7-4 Market Efficiency The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) is a theory that asserts: As a practical matter, the major financial markets reflect all relevant information at a given time. Market efficiency research examines the relationship between stock prices and available information. The important question: is it possible for investors to “beat the market?” Prediction of the EMH theory: if a market is efficient, it is not possible to “beat the market” (except by luck). 7-5 What Does “Beat the Market” Mean? The abnormal return on an investment is the return in excess of that earned by other investments that have the same risk. “Beating the market” means consistently earning a positive abnormal return. 7-6 Three Economic Forces that Can Lead to Market Efficiency Investors use their information in a rational manner. Rational investors do not systematically overvalue or undervalue financial assets. If every investor always makes perfectly rational investment decisions, it would be very difficult to earn an excess return. There are independent deviations from rationality. Suppose that many investors are irrational. The net effect might be that these investors cancel each other out. So, irrationality is just noise that is diversified away. What is important here is that irrational investors have different beliefs. Arbitrageurs exist. Suppose collective irrationality does not balance out. Suppose there are some well-capitalized, intelligent, and rational investors. If rational traders dominate irrational traders, the market will still be These conditions are so powerful that any one of them leads to efficient. efficiency. 7-7 Forms of Market Efficiency, (i.e., what information is used?) A Weak-form Efficient Market is one in which past prices and volume figures are of no use in beating the market. If so, then technical analysis is of little use. A Semistrong-form Efficient Market is one in which publicly available information is of no use in beating the market. If so, then fundamental analysis is of little use. A Strong-form Efficient Market is one in which information of any kind, public or private, is of no use in beating the market. If so, then “inside information” is of little use. 7-8 Information Sets for Market Efficiency 7-9 Why Would a Market be Efficient? The driving force toward market efficiency is simply competition and the profit motive. Even a relatively small performance enhancement can be worth a tremendous amount of money (when multiplied by the dollar amount involved). This profit potential creates incentives to unearth relevant information and use it. Fidelity Magellan: $15 billion under management (as of 2019). To improve performance by 20 basis points for one year, this fund would be willing to spend up to: 0.0020 times $15 billion equals $30 million. 7-10 Some Implications of Market Efficiency: Does Old Information Help Predict Future Stock Prices? This question is surprisingly difficult to answer clearly. Researchers have used sophisticated techniques to test whether past stock price movements help predict future stock price movements. Some researchers have been able to show that future returns are partly predictable by past returns. BUT: there is not enough predictability to earn an excess return. Also, trading costs swamp attempts to build a profitable trading system built on past returns. Technical Analysis implication: No matter how often a particular Result: stock price buy-and-hold path hasinvolving strategies related to subsequent broad market stock indexes price changes in the past, there is are extremely difficult to outperform. no assurance that this relationship will occur again in the future. 7-11 Some Implications of Market Efficiency: Random Walks and Stock Prices If you were to ask people you know whether stock market prices are predictable, many of them would say yes. To their surprise, and perhaps yours, it is very difficult to predict stock market prices. In fact, considerable research has shown that stock prices change through time as if they are random. That is, stock price increases are about as likely as stock price decreases. When there is no discernible pattern to the path that a stock price follows, then the stock’s price behavior is largely consistent with the notion of a random walk. 7-12 Random Walks and Stock Prices, Illustrated Figure 7.2: Daily Price Change for Intel Common Stock, January 14, 2018, to January 14, 2019 7-13 How New Information Gets into Stock Prices, I. In its semi-strong form, the EMH states simply that stock prices fully reflect publicly available information. Stock prices change when traders buy and sell shares based on their view of the future prospects for the stock. However, the future prospects for the stock are influenced by unexpected news announcements. Prices could adjust to unexpected news in three basic ways: Efficient Market Reaction: The price instantaneously adjusts to the new information. Delayed Reaction: The price partially adjusts to the new information. Overreaction and Correction: The price over-adjusts to the new information, but eventually falls to the appropriate price. 7-14 How New Information Gets into Stock Prices, II. Figure 7.3: Possible Market Price Reactions to a News Announcement 7-15 Event Studies, I. Researchers have examined the effects of many types of news announcements on stock prices. Such researchers are interested in: the adjustment process itself. the size of the stock price reaction to a news announcement. To test for the effects of new information on stock prices, researchers use an approach called an event study. Let us look at how researchers use this method. We will use a dramatic example. 7-16 Event Studies, II. On Friday, May 25, 2007, executives of Advanced Medical Optics, Inc. (EYE), voluntarily recalled a contact lens solution called Complete MoisturePlus Multi Purpose Solution. Advanced Medical Optics took this action after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found a link between the solution and a rare cornea infection. The medical name for this cornea infection is acanthamoeba keratitis, or AK. EYE Executives chose to recall their product even though no evidence was found that their manufacturing process introduced the parasite leading to AK. Further, company officials believed that the occurrences of AK were most likely the result of end users who failed to follow safe procedures when installing contact lenses. On Tuesday, May 29, 2007, EYE shares opened at $34.37, down $5.83 from the Friday closing price. 7-17 Event Studies, III. Figure 7.4: The Price of Shares for Advanced Medical Optics, May 14, 2007, through June 15, 2007 7-18 Event Studies, IV. When researchers look for effects of news on stock prices, they must make sure that overall market news is accounted for in their analysis. To separate the overall market from the isolated news concerning Advanced Medical Optics, Inc., researchers would calculate abnormal returns: Abnormal return = Observed return − Expected return The expected return is calculated using a market index (like the Nasdaq 100 or the S&P 500 Index) or by using a long-term average return on the stock. Researchers then align the abnormal return on a stock to the days relative to the news announcement. Researchers usually assign the value of zero to the news announcement day. One day after the news announcement is assigned a value of +1. Two days after the news announcement is assigned a value of +2, and so on. Similarly, one day before the news announcement is assigned the value of −1. 7-19 Event Studies, V. According to the EMH, the abnormal return today should only relate to information released on that day. To evaluate abnormal returns, researchers usually accumulate them over a 60- or 80-day period. The next slide is a plot of cumulative abnormal returns for Advanced Medical Optics, Inc. beginning 40 days before the announcement. The first cumulative abnormal return, or CAR, is just equal to the abnormal return on day −40. The CAR on day −39 is the sum of the first two abnormal returns. The CAR on day −38 is the sum of the first three, and so on. By examining CARs, researchers can see if there was over- or under-reaction to an announcement. 7-20 Event Studies, VI. Figure 7.5: Cumulative Abnormal Returns for Advanced Medical Optics, March 30, 2007, through July 25, 2007 7-21 Event Studies, VII. As you can see, Advanced Medical Optics, Inc.’s cumulative abnormal return hovered around zero before the announcement. After the news was released, there was a large, sharp downward movement in the CAR. The overall pattern of cumulative abnormal returns is essentially what the EMH would predict. That is: there is a band of cumulative abnormal returns, a sharp break in cumulative abnormal returns, and another band of cumulative abnormal returns. 7-22 Informed Traders and Insider Trading, I. If a market is strong-form efficient, no information of any kind, public or private, is useful in beating the market. But, it is clear that significant inside information would enable you to earn substantial excess returns. This fact generates an interesting question: Should any of us be able to earn returns based 7-23 on information that is not known to the Informed Traders and Insider Trading, II. In the U.S. (and in many other countries) it is illegal to make profits on non-public information. It is argued that this ban is necessary if investors are to have trust in U.S. stock markets. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) enforces laws concerning illegal trading activities. It is important to be able to distinguish between: Informed trading Legal insider trading Illegal insider trading 7-24 Informed Trading When an investor makes a decision to buy or sell a stock based on publicly available information and analysis, this investor is said to be an informed trader. The information that an informed trader possesses might come from: Reading the Wall Street Journal Reading quarterly reports issued by a company Gathering financial information from the Internet Talking to other investors 7-25 Legal Insider Trading Some informed traders are also insider traders. When you hear the term insider trading, you most likely think that such activity is illegal. But not all insider trading is illegal. Company insiders can make perfectly legal trades in the stock of their company. They must comply with the reporting rules made by the SEC. When company insiders make a trade and report it to the SEC, these trades are reported to the public by the SEC. In addition, corporate insiders must declare that trades that they made were based on public information about the company, 7-26 rather than “inside” information. Who is an “Insider”? For the purposes of defining illegal insider trading, an insider is someone who has material non-public information. Such information is both not known to the public and, if it were known, would impact the stock price. A person can be charged with insider trading when he or she acts on such information in an attempt to make a profit. 7-27 Illegal Insider Trading When an illegal insider trade occurs, there is a tipper and a tippee. The tipper is the person who has purposely divulged material non-public information. The tippee is the person who has knowingly used such information in an attempt to profit. It is difficult for the SEC to prove that a trader is truly a tippee. It is difficult to keep track of insider information flows and subsequent trades. Suppose a person makes a trade based on the advice of a stockbroker. Even if the broker based this advice on material non-public information, the trader might not have been aware of the broker’s knowledge. The SEC must prove that the trader was, in fact, aware that the broker’s information was based on material non-public information. Sometimes, people accused of insider trading claim that they just “overheard” someone talking. 7-28 Be aware: When you take possession of material non-public information, you become an insider and are bound to obey It’s Not a Good Thing: What did Martha do?, I. The SEC believed that Ms. Stewart was told by her friend, Sam Waksal, who founded a company called ImClone, that a cancer drug being developed by ImClone had been rejected by the Food and Drug Administration. This development would be bad news for ImClone shares. Martha Stewart sold her 3,928 shares in ImClone on December 27, 2001. On that day, ImClone traded below $60 per share, a level that Ms. Stewart claimed triggered an existing stop-loss order. However, the SEC believed that Ms. Stewart illegally sold her shares because she had information concerning the FDA rejection before it became public. The FDA rejection was announced after the market closed on Friday, December 28, 2001. This news was a huge blow to ImClone shares, which closed at about $46 per share on the following Monday (the first trading day after the information became public). 7-29 It’s Not a Good Thing: What did Martha do?, II. In June 2003, Ms. Stewart and her stock broker, Peter Bacanovic, were indicted on nine federal counts. They both plead not guilty. Ms. Stewart’s trial began in January 2004. Just days before the jury began to deliberate, however, Judge Miriam Cedarbaum dismissed the most serious charge of securities fraud. Ms. Stewart, however, was convicted on all four counts of obstructing justice. Judge Cedarbaum fined Ms. Stewart $30,000 and sentenced her to five months in prison, two years of probation, and five months of home confinement. The fine was the maximum allowed under federal rules; the sentence was the minimum the judge could impose. Peter Bacanovic, Ms. Stewart's broker, was fined $4,000 and was sentenced to five months in prison and two years of probation. To summarize: Martha Stewart was accused, but not convicted, of insider trading. Martha Stewart was accused, and convicted, of obstructing 7-30 justice. Are Financial Markets Efficient?, I. Financial markets are the most extensively documented of all human endeavors. Colossal amounts of financial market data are collected and reported every day. These data, particularly stock market data, have been exhaustively analyzed to test market efficiency. However, market efficiency is difficult to test for these four basic reasons: The risk-adjustment problem The relevant information problem The dumb luck problem The data snooping problem 7-31 Are Financial Markets Efficient?, II. Three generalities about market efficiency can be made: 1. Short-term stock price and market movements appear to be difficult to predict with any accuracy. 2. The market reacts quickly and sharply to new information, and various studies find little or no evidence that such reactions can be profitably exploited. 3. If the stock market can be beaten, the way to do so is not obvious. 7-32 Some Implications if Markets Are Efficient Security selection becomes less important, because securities will be fairly priced. There will be a small role for professional money managers. It makes little sense to time the market. 7-33 Market Efficiency and the Performance of Professional Money Managers, I. Let’s have a stock market investment contest in which you are going to take on professional money managers. The professional money managers have at their disposal their skill, banks of computers, and scores of analysts to help pick their stocks. Does this sound like an unfair match? You have a terrific advantage if you follow this investment strategy: Hold a broad-based market index. One such index that you can easily buy is a mutual fund called the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (there are other market index mutual funds). The fund tracks the performance of the S&P 500 Index by investing its assets in the stocks that make up the S&P 500 Index. 7-34 Market Efficiency and the Performance of Professional Money Managers, II. Figure 7.6: The Growth of Actively Managed Equity Funds, 1989–2018 7-35 Market Efficiency and the Performance of Professional Money Managers, III. The previous slide shows the number of these funds that beat the performance of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund. You can see that there is much more variation in the dashed blue line than in the dashed red line. What this means is that in any given year, it is hard to predict how many professional money managers will beat the Vanguard 500 Index Fund. But, the low level and variation of the dashed red line means that the percentage of professional money managers who can beat the Vanguard 500 Index Fund over a 10-year investment period is low and stable. 7-36 Market Efficiency and the Performance of Professional Money Managers, IV. Figure 7.7: Percentage of Managed Equity Funds Beating the Vanguard 500 Index Fund, One-Year Returns 7-37 Market Efficiency and the Performance of Professional Money Managers, V. Figure 7.8: Percentage of Managed Equity Funds Beating the Vanguard 500 Index Fund, 10-Year Returns 7-38 Market Efficiency and the Performance of Professional Money Managers, VI. Two previous slides show the percentage of managed equity funds that beat the Vanguard 500 Index Fund. In 12 of the 30 years (1989–2018), more than half beat the Vanguard 500 Index Fund for a year. The performance is a bit better when it comes to a 10- year investment periods (1989–1998 through 2009–2018). In 11 of these 21 investment periods, more than half the professional money managers beat the Vanguard 500 Index Fund. 7-39 Market Efficiency and the Performance of Professional Money Managers, VII. The upcoming slide presents more evidence concerning the performance of professional money managers. Using data from 1989 through 2018, we divide this time period into: 1-year investment periods Rolling 3-year investment periods Rolling 5-year investment periods Rolling 10-year investment periods Then, after we calculate the number of investment periods, we ask two questions: What percent of the time did half the professionally managed funds beat the Vanguard 500 Index Fund? What percent of the time did three-fourths of them beat the Vanguard 500 Index Fund? 7-40 Market Efficiency and the Performance of Professional Money Managers, VIII. 7-41 Market Efficiency and the Performance of Professional Money Managers, IX. The previous slides raise some potentially difficult and uncomfortable questions for security analysts and other investment professionals. If markets are inefficient, and tools like fundamental analysis are valuable, why can’t mutual fund managers beat a broad market index? The performance of professional money managers is especially troublesome when we consider the enormous resources at their disposal and the substantial survivorship bias that exists. Managers and funds that do especially poorly disappear. If it were possible to beat the market, then the process of elimination should lead to a situation in which the survivors can beat the market. The fact that professional money managers seem to lack the ability to outperform a broad market index is consistent with the notion that the equity market is efficient. 7-42 What is the Role for Portfolio Managers in an Efficient Market? The role of a portfolio manager in an efficient market is to build a portfolio to the specific needs of individual investors. A basic principle of investing is to hold a well-diversified portfolio. However, exactly which diversified portfolio is optimal varies by investor. Some factors that influence portfolio choice include the investor’s age, tax bracket, risk aversion, and even employer. Employer? Suppose you work for Starbucks and part of your compensation is stock options. Like many companies, Starbucks offers its employees the opportunity to purchase company stock at less than market value. You can imagine that you could wind up with a lot of Starbucks stock in your portfolio, which means you are not holding a diversified portfolio. The role of your portfolio manager would be to help you add other assets to your portfolio so that it is once again diversified. 7-43 Anomalies We will now present some aspects of stock price behavior that are both baffling and potentially hard to reconcile with market efficiency. Researchers call these market anomalies. Three facts to keep in mind about market anomalies. First, anomalies generally do not involve many dollars relative to the overall size of the stock market. Second, many anomalies are fleeting and tend to disappear when discovered. Finally, anomalies are not easily used as the basis for a trading 7-44strategy, because transaction costs render many of them unprofitable. The Day-of-the-Week Effect: Mondays tend to have a Negative Average Return The day-of-the-week effect refers to the tendency for Monday to have a negative average return—which is economically significant. The effect is much stronger in the 1950–1980 time period (i.e., before the effect was found), than in the 1981–2018 time period. 7-45 The Amazing January Effect, I. The January effect refers to the tendency for small-cap stocks to have large returns in January. Does the January effect exist for the S&P 500 monthly returns from 1926 through 2018? 7-46 The Amazing January Effect, II. But, what do we see when we look at small-cap stock returns? 7-47 The Turn-of-the-Year Effect, I. Researchers have deeply explored the January effect to see whether: the effect is due to returns during the whole month of January, or due to returns bracketing the end of the year. Researchers look at returns over a specific three-week period and compare these returns to the returns for the rest of the year. As shown on the next slide, we have calculated daily market returns from 1962 through 2018. “Turn of the Year Days:” the last week of daily returns in a calendar year and the first two weeks of daily returns in the next calendar year. “Rest of the Days:” Any daily return that does not fall into this three-week period. 7-48 The Turn-of-the-Year Effect, II. As you can see, the “Turn of the Year” returns are higher than the “Rest of the Days” returns. The difference is biggest in the 1962-1990 period. 7-49 The Turn-of-the-Month Effect, I. Researchers have also investigated whether a “Turn-of-the-Month” effect exists. On the next slide, we have separated daily stock market returns into two categories. “Turn of the Month Days:” Daily returns from the last day of any month or the following three days of the following month “Rest of the Days:” Any other daily returns 7-50 The Turn-of-the-Month Effect, II. “Turn of the Month” returns exceed “Rest of the Days” returns. The turn-of-the-month effect is apparent in all three time periods. The effect appears to be about as strong in the 1991-2018 period as in the 1962-1990 period. The fact that this effect effect exists puzzles EMH proponents. 7-51 Bubbles and Crashes Bubble: occurs when market prices soar far in excess of what normal and rational analysis would suggest. Investment bubbles eventually pop. When a bubble does pop, investors find themselves holding assets with plummeting values. A bubble can form over weeks, months, or even years. Crash: significant and sudden drop in market values. Crashes are generally associated with a bubble. Crashes are sudden, generally lasting less than a week. However, the financial aftermath of a crash can last for years. 7-52 The Crash of 1929 7-53 The Crash of 1929 — The Aftermath 7-54 The Crash of 1987 Once, when we spoke of the Crash, we meant October 29, 1929. That was until October 1987. The Crash of 1987 began on Friday, October 16th. The DJIA fell 108 points to close at 2,246.73. It was the first time in history that the DJIA fell by more than 100 points in one day. On October 19, 1987, the DJIA lost about 22.6% of its value on a new record volume (about 600 million shares) The DJIA plummeted 508.32 points to close at 1,738.74. During the day on Tuesday, October 20th, the DJIA continued to plunge in value, reaching an intraday low of 1,616.21. However, the market rallied and closed at 1,841.01, up 102 points. 7-55 The Crash of 1987 and its Aftermath 7-56 Circuit Breakers The Crash of 1987 led to some significant infrastructure changes that make it possible for the NYSE to handle much heavier trading volume. One of the most interesting changes was the introduction of NYSE circuit breakers in 1998. Circuit breakers were modified in April 2013. Different circuit breakers are triggered if the S&P 500 index level drops by 7, 13, or 20 percent. Specifically, Level 1 circuit breakers kick in if the S&P 500 Index falls 7% before 3:25 p.m. Level 2 circuit breakers kick in if the S&P 500 Index falls 13% before 3:25 p.m. Trading halts in all stocks for 15 minutes when the decline triggers a Level 1 or Level 2 circuit breaker. (Both circuit breakers could be triggered during the same day) Level 3 circuit breakers kick in if the S&P 500 index falls 20% at any time during the day. Trading is halted for the remainder of the day. 7-57 The Asian Crash The crash of the Nikkei Index, which began in 1990, lengthened into a particularly long bear market. It is quite like the Crash of 1929 in that respect. The Asian Crash started with a booming bull market in the 1980s. Japan and emerging Asian economies seemed to be forming a powerful economic force. The “Asian economy” became an investor outlet for those wary of the U.S. market after the Crash of 1987. 7-58 The Asian Crash — Aftermath Nikkei 225 Index, January 1984 to January 2010 7-59 The “Dot-Com” Bubble and Crash, I. By the mid-1990s, the rise in Internet usage and its global growth potential fueled widespread excitement over the “new economy.” Investors seemed to care only about big ideas. Investor euphoria led to a surge in Internet IPOs, which were commonly referred to as “DotComs” because so many of their names ended in “.com.” The lack of solid business models doomed many DotComs. Many of them suffered huge losses. 7-60 The “Dot-Com” Bubble and Crash, II. 7-61 The Dow Jones Average, January 2008 through January 2013 7-62 The Crash of October 2008 7-63 Chapter Review, I. Foundations and Forms of Market Efficiency Some Implications of Market Efficiency Does Old Information Help Predict Future Stock Prices? Random Walks and Stock Prices How Does New Information Get into Stock Prices? Event Studies Informed Traders and Inside Trading How Efficient are Markets? Are Financial Markets Efficient? Some Implications of Market Efficiency The Performance of Professional Money Managers 7-64 Chapter Review, II. Anomalies The Day-of-the-Week Effect The Amazing January Effect Turn-of-the-Year Effect Turn-of-the-Month Effect Bubbles and Crashes The Crash of 1929 The Crash of October 1987 The Asian Crash The “Dot-Com” Bubble and Crash The Crash of 2008 7-65
