chap06.ppt

Chapter 6 DECISION MAKING: THE ESSENCE OF THE MANAGER’S © Prentice Hall, 2002 JOB 6-1  Learning Objectives You should learn to: – Outli...

Chapter 6 DECISION MAKING: THE ESSENCE OF THE MANAGER’S © Prentice Hall, 2002 JOB 6-1  Learning Objectives You should learn to: – Outline the steps in the decision-making process – Explain why decision making is so pervasive in organizations – Describe the rational decision maker – Contrast the perfectly rational and boundedly rational approaches to decision making – Explain the role that intuition plays in the decision-making process © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-2  Learning Objectives (cont.) You should learn to: – Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve them – Differentiate the decision conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty – Describe the different decision-making styles © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-3  Decision Making Decisions – choices from two or more alternatives – all organizational members make decisions Decision-Making Process – a comprehensive, 8-step process – Step 1 - Identifying a Problem problem - discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs – must be such that it exerts pressure to act – manager is unlikely to characterize a situation as a problem unless s/he has resources necessary to act © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-4  The Decision-Making Process Allocation of Problem Identification of Weights to Development of Identification Decision Criteria Criteria Alternatives “My salespeople Price Reliability 10 Acer need new computers” Weight Screen size 8 Compaq Warranty Warranty 5 Gateway Screen type Weight 5 HP Reliability Price 4 Micromedia Screen size Screen type 3 NEC Sony Toshiba Analysis of Selection of an Implementation Alternatives Alternative of an Alternative Acer Acer Compaq Compaq Evaluation Gateway Gateway Gateway of Decision HP HP Effectiveness Micromedia Micromedia NEC NEC Sony Sony Toshiba Toshiba © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-5  Decision Making (cont.) Decision-Making Process (cont.) – Step 2 - Identifying Decision Criteria decision criteria - what’s relevant in making a decision – Step 3 - Allocating Weights to the Criteria must weight the criteria to give them appropriate priority in the decision – Step 4 - Developing Alternatives list the viable alternatives that could resolve the problem without evaluating them – Step 5 - Analyzing Alternatives each alternative is evaluated against the criteria © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6 Assessed Values of Notebook Computer Alternatives Against Decision Criteria © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-7 Evaluation of Laptop Computer Alternatives Against Criteria and Weights © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-8  Decision Making (cont.) Decision-Making Process (cont.) – Step 6 - Selecting an Alternative choosing the best alternative from among those considered – Step 7 - Implementing the Alternative implementation - conveying the decision to those affected by it and getting their commitment to it – participation in decision-making process inclines people to support the decision – decision may fail if it is not implemented properly – Step 8 - Evaluating Decision Effectiveness determine whether the problem is resolved © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-9  Decisions in the Management Functions © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-10  The Manager As Decision Maker Rational Decision Making – decisions are consistent, value-maximizing choices within specified constraints – managers assumed to make rational decisions – Assumptions of Rationality - decision maker would: – be objective and logical – carefully define a problem – have a clear and specific goal – select the alternative that maximizes the likelihood of achieving the goal – make decision in the firm’s best economic interests managerial decision making seldom meets all the tests © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-11  Assumptions Of Rationality Single, well- defined goal is to be achieved All alternatives Problem is and clear and consequences unambiguous are known Rational Decision Final choice Preferences Making will maximize are clear payoff Preferences No time or cost are constant constraints exist and stable © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-12  The Manager As Decision Maker (cont.) Bounded Rationality – behave rationally within the parameters of a simplified decision-making process that is limited by an individual’s ability to process information – satisfice - accept solutions that are “good enough” – escalation of commitment - increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong refusal to admit that the initial decision may have been flawed © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-13  The Manager As Decision Maker (cont.) Role of Intuition – intuitive decision making - subconscious process of making decisions on the basis of experience and accumulated judgment does not rely on a systematic or thorough analysis of the problem generally complements a rational analysis © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-14  What Is Intuition? Decisions based on experience Decisions based on ethical values Experienced- Decisions based or culture on feelings and based decisions emotions Values or Affect- ethics-based initiated decisions Intuition decisions Subconscious Cognitive- mental based processing decisions Decisions based Decisions based on subconscious on skills, data knowledge, or training © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-15  The Manager As A Decision Maker (cont.) Types of Problems and Decisions – Well-Structured Problems - straightforward, familiar, and easily defined – Programmed Decisions - used to address structured problems – minimize the need for managers to use discretion – facilitate organizational efficiency procedure - series of interrelated sequential steps used to respond to a structured problem rule - explicit statement of what to do or not to do policy - guidelines or parameters for decision making © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-16  The Manager As A Decision Maker (cont.) Types of Problems and Decisions (cont.) – Poorly-Structured Problems - new, unusual problems for which information is ambiguous or incomplete – Nonprogrammed Decisions - used to address poorly- structured problems produce a custom-made response more frequent among higher-level managers – few decisions in the real world are either fully programmed or nonprogrammed © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-17 Types Of Problems, Types Of Decisions, And Level In The Organization Ill-structured Top Nonprogrammed Type of Decisions Level in Problem Organization Programmed Decisions Well-structured Lower © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-18  The Manager As A Decision Maker (cont.) Decision-Making Conditions – Certainty - outcome of every alternative is known idealistic rather than realistic – Risk - able to estimate the probability of outcomes stemming from each alternative expected value - the conditional return from each possible outcome – multiply expected revenue from each outcome by the probability of each outcome © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-19 Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-20  The Manager As A Decision Maker (cont.) Decision-Making Conditions (cont.) – Uncertainty - not certain about outcomes and unable to estimate probabilities psychological orientation of decision maker – maximax choice - optimistic » maximizing the maximum possible payoff – maximin choice - pessimistic » maximizing the minimum possible payoff – minimax - minimize the maximum “regret” © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-21  Payoff Matrix © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-22  Regret Matrix © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-23  The Manager As A Decision Maker (cont.) Decision-Making Styles – two dimensions define the approach to decision making way of thinking - differs from rational to intuitive tolerance for ambiguity - differs from a need for consistency and order to the ability to process many thoughts simultaneously – define four decision-making styles Directive - fast, efficient, and logical Analytic - careful and able to adapt or cope with new situations Conceptual - able to find creative solutions Behavioral - seek acceptance of decisions © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-24  Decision-Making Styles High Tolerance for Ambiguity Analytic Conceptual Directive Behavioral Low Rational Intuitiv Way of Thinking e © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-25  Managing Workforce Diversity Diversity in Decision Making – Advantages - diverse employees: provide fresh perspectives offer differing interpretations of problem definition increase the likelihood of creative and unique solutions – Disadvantages - diverse employees: require more time to reach a decision may have problems of communication may create a more complex, confusing, and ambiguous decision-making process may have difficulty in reaching agreement © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-26  Overview Of Managerial Decision Making Decision-Making Approach Rationality Bounded Rationality Intuition Types of Problems and Decisions Well-structured Decision - programmed Choose best Poorly structured Decision-Making alternative - nonprogrammed Process - maximizing - satisficing Implementing Decision-Making Conditions Evaluating Certainty Risk Decision Maker Style Directive Uncertainty Analytic Conceptual Behavioral © Prentice Hall, 2002 6-27