Measuring Project Success 2016 PDF

Measuring project success: from ‘iron triangle’ to ‘iron pyramid’  ​PMAA Queensland State Winner, Research, 2016 2016 ​PMAA National Winner, Research,...

Measuring project success: from ‘iron triangle’ to ‘iron pyramid’  ​PMAA Queensland State Winner, Research, 2016 2016 ​PMAA National Winner, Research, 2016 ​APFPM Asia Pacific Regional Winner, Research, 2016 Project Management Research ​IPMA International Finalist, Research, 2017 National Winner Bond University for Measuring Project Delivery Success Dated this eighteenth day of October 2016 Awarded By Leh Simonelli Philip van der Moezel Chair National Chief Judge ​copyright © 2015-2018 Craig Langston all rights reserved table of contents 01 04 introduction: project success and project integration: a proposed PMBOK® 3D model 02 05 project constraints: the iron measuring success: key triangle performance indicators 03 06 sustainability: an emerging issue conclusion: understanding performance section ​introduction ​project success and PMBOK® 01 introduction project success and PMBOK® International standards, such as the Project Management ​Since Martin Barnes’ so called ‘iron Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) published by the Project triangle’ (circa 1969), much debate has Management Institute, appear to increasingly avoid the issue occurred over how best to describe the and focus instead on discipline practice and procedure. fundamental constraints that underpin The aim in this presentation, therefore, is to set out a case for a new 3D project integration model and to demonstrate how it project success. can be employed to assess the performance of project management teams in delivering successful outcomes at ​There have been calls for a new paradigm (e.g. Weaver, 2012) various stages in the project life cycle. and yet plenty of support for the old one. There is confusion between terms such as ‘project success’ and ‘project management success’ and between ‘success factors’ and the iron triangle is a common method for ‘success criteria’. judging if project delivery was a success section 01 5 introduction project success and PMBOK® ​The latest edition of PMBOK® is largely silent on the important topic of project success. It states that: ​“One of the most common challenges in project management is determining whether or not a project is successful. Traditionally, the project management metrics of time, cost, scope, and quality have been the most important factors in defining the success of a project. More recently, practitioners and scholars have determined that project success should also be measured with consideration toward achievement of the project objectives”. (PMI, 2017:34). ​It suggests a project may be successful in terms of scope/ time/cost, but be unsuccessful from a business viewpoint. section 01 6 introduction project success and PMBOK® ​There are 10 knowledge areas in PMBOK®. Zwikael (2009), in project integration management a structured survey of 783 project managers from a wide range of countries and industries, found that Project scope quality Integration Management is the most important one. cost resource ​Kirsilä et al. (2007) pointed out that analogous words in the time (schedule) communications literature to describe the concept of project integration include unite, combine, unify, consolidate, concentrate, risk organise and systematise. Put another way, integration is about bringing a number of distinct things together into a procurement harmonious unit. This is what differentiates it from the other knowledge areas. It is therefore considered to be a higher- stakeholder order than the remainder. section 01 7  Table 1-4. Project Management Process Group and Knowledge Area Mapping Project Management Process Groups Knowledge Initiating Planning Executing Monitoring Closing Areas Process Process Process and Controlling Process Group Group Group Process Group Group 4. Project 4.1 Develop 4.2 Develop Project 4.3 Direct and 4.5 Monitor and 4.7 Close Project Integration Project Charter Management Plan Manage Project Control Project or Phase Management Work Work 4.4 Manage Project 4.6 Perform Knowledge Integrated Change Control 5. Project Scope 5.1 Plan Scope 5.5 Validate Scope Management Management 5.6 Control Scope 5.2 Collect Requirements 5.3 Define Scope 5.4 Create WBS 6. Project Schedule 6.1 Plan Schedule 6.6 Control Management Management Schedule 6.2 Define Activities 6.3 Sequence Activities 6.4 Estimate Activity Durations 6.5 Develop Schedule 7. Project Cost 7.1 Plan Cost 7.4 Control Costs Management Management 7.2 Estimate Costs 7.3 Determine Budget 8. Project 8.1 Plan Quality 8.2 Manage Quality 8.3 Control Quality Quality Management Management 9. Project 9.1 Plan Resource 9.3 Acquire 9.6 Control Resource Management Resources Resources Management 9.2 Estimate 9.4 Develop Team Activity Resources 9.5 Manage Team 10. Project 10.1 Plan 10.2 Manage 10.3 Monitor Communications Communications Communications Communications Management Management 11. Project Risk 11.1 Plan Risk 11.6 Implement 11.7 Monitor Risks Copyright © 2017. Project Management Institute. All rights reserved. Management Management Risk Responses 11.2 Identify Risks 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 12. Project 12.1 Plan 12.2 Conduct 12.3 Control Procurement Procurement Procurements Procurements Management Management 13. Project 13.1 Identify 13.2 Plan 13.3 Manage 13.4 Monitor Stakeholder Stakeholders Stakeholder Stakeholder Stakeholder Management Engagement Engagement Engagement A guide to the project management body of knowledge (pmbok® guide). (2017). Retrieved from http://ebookcentral.proquest.com 25 Created from bond on 2020-05-31 18:39:49. section ​project constraints ​the iron triangle 02 project constraints the iron triangle Jha and Iyer (2007) found that the commitment, coordination ​Dr Martin Barnes is credited with the and competence of project players were key factors that notion of core constraints that underpin underpin the iron triangle. These were argued as bearing on successful delivery. He promoted cost, time, cost and scope respectively, and when nurtured, successful performance outcomes were more likely to occur. time and output as the iron triangle (or But the basic ‘law’ of project management can be broken, and triple constraint) of project management. it can be argued there is a need for a more complete paradigm representing the many facets of delivery success. ​He argued that making a change to one constraint affects the other two. Many variations ensued, including output “the question and challenge is how to sometimes being renamed as quality, scope or performance. replace a project management icon as Others preferred the terms of ‘budget, schedule and scope’, powerful as the ‘iron triangle’ with a more or simplified it further as ‘cheap, fast and good’. representative symbol” (Weaver, 2012) section 02 9 project constraints the iron triangle ​ cost Conventional wisdom suggests that if more scope is added, then cost and/or time are increased. If completion needs to be accelerated, then more budget and/or less scope must follow. If cost is lowered, then less scope and/or less time are implied. But such consequences are not always the case. Mention of the iron triangle was dropped from PMBOK® Edition 5 in exchange for the following statement: “[...] balancing the competing project constraints, which include, triple but are not limited to: scope, quality, schedule, budget, constraint resources and risks, […] the relationship among these factors ​ is such that if any one factor changes, at least one other time scope factor is likely to be affected” (PMI, 2013:6). Edition 6 does not mention it at all. section 02 10 project constraints the iron triangle ​Today, Barnes’ triangle has lost some currency due to the Yet practitioners still refer to the basic concept and many almost endless list of project objectives that have been defend it. Some confusion exists between ‘project delivery discussed and advanced in the literature, including safety, success’ and ‘project success’, where the latter is obviously defect minimisation, environmental impact, continuous influenced by factors beyond the control of the project team process improvement, team development, conflict avoidance, and sometimes outside the boundaries of the project itself and perhaps more significantly, client, user and stakeholder (de Wit, 1988; Munns and Bjeirmi, 1996). The iron triangle satisfaction (e.g. Wateridge, 1998; Fortune and White, 2006; was always about the success of project delivery under the Toor and Ogunlana, 2010). control of the project management team. Project Integration Management is described as the unification of the other knowledge areas, presumably with the view of ensuring successful outcomes are achieved, but the lack of a more inclusive model is an impediment to resolving what constitutes true success section 02 11 section ​sustainability ​an emerging issue 03 sustainability an emerging issue Not only are environmental controls likely to impact on project ​Project managers can no longer ignore the outcomes and choices, but the wider moral imperative of a impact their activities have on the wider sustainable future has led to concern that the balance environment and shared natural assets. between economic, social and environmental criteria (i.e. triple bottom line accounting) is not well served by the current PMBOK® framework. Silvius et al. (2012) provide a robust ​The importance of sustainability has captured the attention of case for the inclusion of sustainability in project management project teams worldwide (e.g. Ebbesen & Hope, 2013; Hwang and PMBOK® (see also GPM’s PRiSM™ methodology and the & Ng, 2013; Fernández-Sánchez & Rodríguez-López, 2010). P5™ Standard at www.greenprojectmanagement.org). plan identify assess control section 03 13 sustainability an emerging issue plan environmental It includes the process of documenting project environmental decisions, establishing an appropriate strategy, and planning to management ensure that valuable environmental assets are protected identify potential It includes the process of determining which project attributes may impact on the natural environment, listing issues of significance, and impacts prioritising them so that subsequent analysis can occur assess environmental It includes the process of quantifying positive and negative influences that the project induces on its natural surroundings (i.e. impacts environmental impact assessment) using appropriate multiple criteria It includes the process of implementing strategies that conserve and control mitigation protect environmental assets, monitoring performance, identifying new risks, and evaluating effectiveness throughout the project section 03 14 sustainability an emerging issue project integration management project integration management scope quality scope quality cost resource cost resource time (schedule) communications time (schedule) communications risk risk procurement procurement stakeholder stakeholder environmental section 03 15 section ​project integration ​a proposed 3D model 04 project integration a proposed 3D model Therefore the question arises: what actually constitutes a ​It is vital to ensure that the criteria upon successful project? A common answer from practitioners which success is judged is clear from the might be a successful project is one that is delivered within outset. Business uses key performance budget, on time and as specified, with no unwanted surprises. indicators (KPIs) for this purpose. Saputra & Ladamay (2011) refer to the probability that this has happened as ‘project reliability’. ​Bryde (2005:119) argued that the absence of KPIs in project management should be redressed. He concluded that this is “seen to contribute to a failure by organisations to manage successful projects necessary increases in their project management capability and to be acting as a possible barrier to long-term, within budget on time sustainable improvements in performance”. A detailed search of PMBOK® shows that discussion of KPIs is virtually absent. as specified no surprises section 04 17 project integration a proposed 3D model ​KPIs are set during the planning stage of projects. Thereafter ​2. Only a limited, manageable number of KPIs is they are used to compare ‘planned’ against ‘actual’ maintainable for regular use (too many or too complex KPIs performance and expressed as a percentage change. The can be time and resource consuming). combination of all KPIs determines the PDS score, with higher actual performance indicating successful execution. ​3. The systematic use of KPIs is essential as their value is almost completely derived from their consistent use across ​Chan & Chan (2004) stated that the purpose of KPIs is to projects. enable objective measurement of project or organisational performance. Collin (2002, cited in Chan & Chan, 2004) ​4. Data collection must be made as simple as possible. advocated that the following attributes should be kept in ​5. KPIs are to be generic and applicable on every project. mind: ​6. For performance measurement to be effective, the KPIs ​1. KPIs are general indicators of performance that focus on must be widely accepted, understood and owned. critical aspects of outputs or outcomes. section 04 18 project integration a proposed 3D model ​Project delivery success (PDS) and its measurement feature in In a study based on more than one hundred defence research the literature over a long period. Generally research findings and development projects, Dvir et al. (2003) found that acknowledge the influence of scope, cost and time, but also project success was insensitive to the level of implementation identify other success factors. Risk (i.e. no unwanted of management processes and procedures, but positively surprises) is commonly listed, and deserves to be considered correlated with scope definition and technical specifications. as a core project constraint (Langston, 2013). Clearly this underscores the mismatch of whether success relates to the design of a project or its actual procurement. ​Cooke-Davies (2002) highlighted the difference between success criteria (used for evaluating success) and success factors (that lead to success). The list in both cases is long success factors and criteria/factors are often specific to particular types of projects and sponsors (Davis, 2014). Success criteria (such as cost time KPIs) and success factors (such as core project constraints) are commonly linked (Westerveld, 2003). scope risk section 04 19 project integration a proposed 3D model project integration management project integration management scope quality scope quality cost resource cost resource time (schedule) communications time (schedule) communications risk risk procurement procurement stakeholder stakeholder environmental environmental section 04 20 project integration a proposed 3D model ​Scope, time, cost and risk are employed as success factors in the proposed 3D model. Each can be readily quantified. But rather than suggesting a triangular framework, four factors are best illustrated by the shape of a tetrahedron. ​The PMBOK® knowledge areas can also be included in this framework. Quality, Resource, Communications, Procurement, Stakeholder, and Environmental Management are assigned to the six edges of the tetrahedron. The original iron triangle can still be seen as one of the four sides. ​The tetrahedron collectively reflects the higher-order knowledge area of Project Integration Management, which should also take sustainability implications into account. section 04 21 section ​measuring success ​key performance indicators 05 measuring success key performance indicators ​Six generic KPIs capable of quantitative success criteria context measurement flow directly from the value stakeholder structure of the 3D project integration model. They relate to project delivery (as efficiency resource opposed to project design) and comprise: speed procurement value, efficiency, speed, innovation, innovation communications complication and impact. complication quality ​Each of these KPIs arises from the fundamental relationship between different pairs of success factors. impact environmental section 05 23 measuring success key performance indicators risk risk risk resource procurement stakeholder cost time scope cost (schedule) efficiency speed value * not included in PMBOK Edition 6© red = measurable outcomes section 05 24 measuring success key performance indicators value scope innovation risk cost cost efficiency cost complication risk time time speed scope impact risk time scope section 05 25 measuring success key performance indicators PDS value. efficiency. speed. innovation complication. impact inverted scope. cost. scope. risk. time. scope cost. time. time. cost. risk. risk scope3 s3 or cost. time. risk ctr section 05 26  measuring success key performance indicators scope Each face of the tetrahedron reflects an aspect of sustainable development. Beech (2013) proposed the ‘4Ps’ approach to s2 measuring sustainability: profit, people, planet and progress. c2 When applied to the model, the three KPIs bounding each profit face simplify to respective performance indices (as shown opposite). Progress has no index but is rather the mean of the risk cost other three computations. For example, the face called ‘profit’ is bounded by the KPIs of progress s2 value, innovation and impact. Value and innovation need to be s2 r2 t2 maximised, while impact needs to be minimised. Therefore: planet people profit = scope. risk. scope = s2 cost. cost. risk c2 scope time scope section 05 27 measuring success key performance indicators ​Project delivery success (PDS) is a combination of the Success factors are the critical inputs to successful project outcomes of the six generic KPIs, as given by the formula: delivery. Success criteria (KPIs) are the means for assessing performance. These are evaluated at the start of a project ​ PDS = s3 (planned) and again at the end (actual), so the % change ctr indicates the level of delivery success or failure (i.e. objective). ​where: s = scope A number of targets may also be set. One KPI might be c = cost identified as critical (i.e. best performer), and no more than t = time two KPIs might be permitted to be negative. The project r = risk should ideally demonstrate positive 4P values. success factors + success criteria + targets = objective (i.e. maximise % change in PDS planned v actual) section 05 28 measuring success key performance indicators success factors success criteria* targets objective scope value select critical KPI maximise % cost efficiency as best performer change in PDS (planned v actual) time speed no more than two risk innovation negative KPIs complication positive 4P impact values(progressiv * e) additional criteria can be employed for specific projects as required section 05 29 section ​conclusion ​understanding performance 06 conclusion understanding performance The method comprises identification of success factors ​A conceptual model for describing project occupying the four vertices of the model, six success criteria integration is presented here in the form representing the edges of the model, and four faces reflecting of a tetrahedron containing all existing the contribution of project delivery to sustainability. KPIs express the link between success factors, are relevant to any PMBOK® knowledge areas, plus Project type of project, and are capable of objective measurement. Environmental Management. Project delivery success is a result of the balance between the six KPIs, recognising that some may be mutually exclusive. If ​This presentation sets out the case for such a model and the actual PDS score is higher than the planned score, then demonstrates how it can be employed to assess the the project is considered successful and the project performance of project teams in delivering successful management team should be congratulated. Strategies to outcomes at various stages in the project life cycle. The model determine the optimal level and balance of the PDS can help itself informs the method for quantifying success. deliver favourable outcomes for stakeholders. section 06 31 conclusion understanding performance ​Projects of any size or type can be ranked by PDS % change. SCOPE ​Maximising scope and minimising cost, time and risk will lead to higher project delivery success. Ideally a positive contribution should also be made to profit, people, planet and progress. Note that a common percentage increase in scope, cost, time and risk has no effect on any of these outcomes innovation and hence are judged as equally successful. RISK COST ​There are other potential success factors at play, including satisfaction, creativity, beauty, legacy and personal security, but those embedded in the model are specific to project TIME delivery. Nevertheless, there is no reason why a few more KPIs cannot be introduced in particular circumstances. SCOPE speed SCOPE section 06 32 conclusion understanding performance ​Scope is not just the amount of work that is required, but Project integration ensures that the right balance between all reflects the standard (i.e. quality level) that is expected and success factors is achieved. Stakeholder satisfaction is likely specified in contractual documentation. to be realised if the PDS score is better than forecast. ​Cost is not just whether the project is delivered within budget, Satisfaction, however, is controversial. It is conceivable that but reflects the resources needed to undertake the work. even if all KPIs are delivered, one or more stakeholder groups may remain dissatisfied. Therefore the question arises as to ​Time is not just whether the project is completed on time, but whether stakeholder satisfaction is a success criterion or a reflects the procurement decisions to support the process. phenomenon. The latter is suspected. ​Risk is not just exposure to unexpected surprises, but reflects The following example is drawn from a problem-based the ability of the project management team to absorb, learning exercise called Utopia, conducted at Bond University, mitigate or deflect events that can inhibit success as well as involving the delivery of infrastructure for a remote Pacific embrace opportunities that can further enhance success. island designed to support refugees fleeing persecution. section 06 33  ! ! ! MASTER!PLAN! scope planned baselines 17,500 refugee beds time 1,000 working days ! cost AUD$ 500,000,000 ! risk 2.01 mean risk level United!Nations!Offshore!Refugee!Solution! ! Stage!1!! commercial!in!confidence! section 06 Deloitte!Australia!2014! 34 KPI RATIO PLANNED ACTUAL % CHANGE value maximise scope 17,500 refugee beds 18,000 refugee beds 2.86% cost 500,000,000 AUD$ 500,000,000 AUD$ efficiency maximise cost 500,000,000 AUD$ 500,000,000 AUD$ -1.96% time 1,000 working days 1,020 working days speed maximise scope 17,500 refugee beds 18,000 refugee beds 0.84% time 1,000 working days 1,020 working days innovation maximise risk 2.01 √mean risk level 1.95 √mean risk level -2.99% cost 500,000,000 AUD$ 500,000,000 AUD$ complication minimise risk 2.01 √mean risk level 1.95 √mean risk level 5.14% time 1,000 working days 1,020 working days impact minimise risk 2.01 √mean risk level 1.95 √mean risk level 6.02% scope 17,500 refugee beds 18,000 refugee beds PDS = maximise s3 5.33 5.86 Good job! 9.97% ctr section 06 35 conclusion understanding performance contribution to sustainability Using the previous example of planned versus actual data, ‘profit’ is shown to change by +5.80%, ‘people’ by +1.69% 16% and ‘planet’ by +12.41%. The mean change is +6.63% (i.e. 25% ‘progress’). This demonstrates that the project’s actual 5% performance is positive for each of the 4Ps of sustainable development, although the largest contribution here applies to ‘planet’. the influence of project delivery success (PDS) on sustainable development can 54% be interpreted from the distribution and the number of positive contributions profit people planet progress section 06 36 conclusion understanding performance Langston, C. and Ghanbaripour, A.N., 2016. A Management Maturity Model (MMM) for project-based organisational performance assessment. Construction Economics and Building, 16(4), pp.68-85. ​Organisations are considered more likely to deliver successful Each KPI can translate to a core strategic objective supported projects if they have systems in place that reflect a mature by a series of generic capabilities at the level of standalone project management environment based on a culture of projects, multiple aligned projects (program) and project/ continuous improvement. program collection (portfolio). Overall performance is added to reflect the combined impact of scope, cost, time and risk. ​Much work has been undertaken over the years to develop frameworks that objectively measure organisational maturity. Using Dr W. Edwards Deming’s respected ‘plan-do-check-act’ Examples include OPM3, P3M3, PMMM and CMMI. However, approach to continuous improvement, each capability is these frameworks are generally complex and require a high validated via demonstrable evidence to derive a maturity degree of expertise and time when deployed in practice. index for a specific project management environment/ organisation. It is envisaged that the review would take the ​The proposed 3D model similarly lends itself to bridge the gap form of self-assessment but be subsequently analysed by an between delivery success and organisational strategy, while experienced auditor who would advise on any follow-up importantly allowing assessed capabilities to be customisable. recommendations to unlock higher maturity characteristics. section 06 37  section 06 38 customisable by organisation references Beech, D. 2013. Quadruple bottom line for sustainable Cooke-Davies, T. 2002. The “real” success factors on projects. prosperity. Cambridge Leadership Development. 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How can IS/IT projects be measured for Zwikael, O. 2009. The relative importance of the PMBOK® success? International Journal of Project Management. 16(1), Guide’s nine knowledge areas during project planning. Project 59-63. Management Journal. 40(4), 94-103. section 06 42 the integration of scope, cost, time and risk on projects leads the call for an ‘iron pyramid’ ​Professor Craig Langston Bond University thank ​contact information ​[email protected] ​+61 7 5595 2233 you ​............ ​faculty of society & design ​bond university ​16 university drive robina 4229 australia