2010 UK General Election Analysis PDF

**Party policies and manifestos\ **The main issue in this election was the economy. A global financial crisis in 2007-08 led to a recession in Britain, and the budget deficit (the amount Britain spent more than it made) had increased to £175 billion. All three parties promised to cut government spen...

**Party policies and manifestos\ **The main issue in this election was the economy. A global financial crisis in 2007-08 led to a recession in Britain, and the budget deficit (the amount Britain spent more than it made) had increased to £175 billion. All three parties promised to cut government spending, but disagreed on how quickly and how far these cuts should be made. The Conservatives were the only major party who promised to make immediate cuts, whereas Labour and the Lib Dems said that this would risk a second recession, so Britain should made cuts gradually instead. Immediately after the recession the Conservatives under David Cameron accused Labour of managing the economy poorly and of overspending. The World Bank praised Brown's response to the financial crisis and his leadership after the recession, but the Conservative message cut through to voters. This crippled Gordon Brown's reputation for sensible economic management. **The election campaign\ **This is another election which leads us to question how important campaigns really are. The Conservatives tested their policies out with voters and spent 5 years targeting vulnerable Labour seats, but still could not win an overall majority.\ On a visit to Rochdale, a voter heckled Gordon Brown, asking him: "all these eastern European what are coming in, where are they flocking from?" Whilst Brown was being driven away, he privately described the questioner as a 'bigoted woman' -- but his microphone was on and the media picked this up. It became a big news story and Brown publicly and privately apologised -- however, Labour actually held Rochdale so the actual significance of the event is questionable.\ 2010 was the first election to have televised debates. The three main party leaders took part in this. Gordon Brown, the least charismatic of the three leaders, did not connect with voters and was mocked for saying 'I agree with Nick' on multiple occasions. Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem leader, did well in these debates, but this does not mean that the debates shaped the outcome. Although the Lib Dems did enter government for the first time, in a coalition with the Conservatives, they actually lost five seats. **The wider political context\ **Gordon Brown became Prime Minister in June 2007 after Tony Blair's resignation. There were rumours that he would call an election in the autumn in order to gain a personal mandate from voters, but ultimately he decided not to do so. His opponents then mocked him for perceived cowardice, and his reputation never recovered. As with James Callaghan, Gordon Brown's decision not to hold an early election proved to be a fatal mistiming. The global financial crisis and recession that began in 2007 then further damaged his reputation. Although Brown was praised internationally for bailing out banks and partly nationalising some to avoid them collapsing, this did not benefit him politically in the UK as the Conservatives were successfully able to convince voters that Labour was to blame for the crisis.\ The media turned against Brown, who was perceived as irritable. Polls suggested that Cameron was seen as a better potential Prime Minister, although Brown came out ahead when asked which leader would be best in a crisis. This suggests that voters were not fully convinced by Cameron either. When asked which of the parties had the best ideas for managing the economy, 29% chose the Conservatives, 26% chose Labour and 36% did not choose any of the parties -- so we must not overstate the extent of Conservative support in 2010. This is why no party won a majority. **Partisanship, governing competency and voter choice\ **In 1979, our first case study, 83% of the vote went to the two main parties. This dropped to 75% in 1997 and in 2010 dropped further to 67%.\ Skilled workers were the deciding factor in 1979, when Thatcher lured them away from Labour, and in 1997 when Blair won them back. In 2010, this C2 class group abandoned Labour again as they had lost faith in the government after the financial crisis and recession.\ Previously we have discussed how 1979 saw the start of the presidentialisation of UK politics, as the party leader has become increasingly more important in determining the outcome. This was very much the case in 1997 and can again be seen here. Brown failed to come across as charismatic and self-assured, but despite modernising the Conservative Party Cameron also failed to fully convince. **2010 general election** **Conservative** **Labour** **Liberal** ---------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------ ------------ ------------- Class and voting behaviour Middle class (ABC1) (AB turnout 76%, C1 turnout 66%) **39%** **27%** **26%** Skilled working class (C2) (turnout 58%) **37%** **29%** **22%** Semi/unskilled working class and unemployed (DE) (turnout 57%) **31%** **40%** **17%** Gender and voting behaviour Men **38%** **28%** **22%** Women **36%** **31%** **26%** BAME (Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic) voters White **38%** **28%** **24%** All non-white **16%** **60%** **20%** Age and voting behaviour 18-24 (turnout 44%) **30%** **31%** **30%** 25-34 (turnout 55%) **35%** **30%** **29%** 35-44 (turnout 66%) **34%** **31%** **26%** 45-54 (turnout 69%) **34%** **28%** **26%** 55-64 (turnout 73%) **38%** **28%** **23%** 65+ (turnout 76%) **44%** **31%** **16%**