Political Behavior and Institutions PDF

Political Behavior and Institution s Filippo Tronconi 14. Autocratization: Old and new A prologue on words Autocratization is a general term to include all instances of worsening of the democratic conditions of a country, regardless of the initial conditions. It includes democracies becom...

Political Behavior and Institution s Filippo Tronconi 14. Autocratization: Old and new A prologue on words Autocratization is a general term to include all instances of worsening of the democratic conditions of a country, regardless of the initial conditions. It includes democracies becoming less democratic, democracies turning to autocracies, autocracies becoming more autocratic Its opposite is democratization Some authors (e.g. Bermeo) use democratic backsliding instead Democratic breackdown explitictly refers to a democracy turning into autocracy (it has thus a narower meaning) Democratic recession or democratic erosion refer to a worsening of democratic conditions in a country that nonetheless remains democratic Authoritarian consolidation refers to an autocracy that moves further away from democracy Data sources: FH vs. V-Dem Freedom House is a US NGO (not University), carrying out research on (and promoting) democracy around the world Mostly similar methodology (i.e. expert- based) Mostly similar results (>90% of cases similarly classified) Differences to be found mostly in the “Grey Zone”  Autocratizations of the third wave are different from autocratizations of the second (and first) wave. Three types of autocratizations that were The common during the Cold War period have almost disappeared: changing  Coups d’état (military or civilian elites nature of overturn democratically elected government, often with the use of force) autocratizati  Executive coups or autogolpes on (I) (democratically elected chief executive suspending constitutional legality)  Election-day vote fraud (democratic elections are openly manipulated in favor of one party or leader)  Autocratizations of the third wave mostly happen in new forms:  Promissory coups (incumbent government is ousted as a supposed defense of democratic legality and The promising democratic restoration)  Executive aggrandizement changing (democratically elected governments gradually weaken checks on executive nature of powers, hampering the power of opposition forces to challenge executive autocratizati preferences)  Strategic election manipulation (a on (II) range of actions aimed at tilting the playing field in favor of the incumbents, taking place before election day: media access, public funding, vote registration, electoral rules, electoral integrity commissions, …)  Today, democracy is unanimously loaded with positive values. It is thought of as the legitimate regime type This has not always been the case: in the 1930s, the concept of totalitarian state was used in positive terms by totalitarian leaders, Why as a model opposed to that of “corrupt democracies” autocracy is Things change after WW2 and even more after not what once the end of the Cold War Of course, many interpretations of democracy was from authoritarian rulers are far from a rigorous use of the term Ironically, the new “soft” forms of autocratization are a consequence of the success of the universal legitimacy of democracy and the success of international democracy promotion  The textbook of the perfect aspiring autocrat: After being democratically elected, Attack opposition as disloyal and corrupt Attack the media (those not already under government control) as “fake news” and unpatriotic, as part of the elites telling lies How executive to the people aggrandizeme Attack the Courts, as the stand in the way of the “will of the people” nt happens (I) Dismantle the “deep state”: civil service, security apparatus, checks on electoral integrity and replace with loyalists Stigmatize independent think tanks, universities, NGOs and other civil society organizations as detached from the “real people”, unpatriotic, serving foreign interests  If all the steps have been carefully followed, next elections will be formally How executive free, but the political environment will be clearly flawed in favor of the incumbent aggrandizeme If the incumbent wins a super-majority in nt happens (II) the next elections, the following stage will be a constitutional amendment that makes all the above legitimate and legal  A few elements from Diamond 2021 (to be demonstrated)  Changes in the international environment: especially US foreign policy (Iraq war and failed attempt to “export democracy” by force; since 2001, shift to Why “War on terror”) autocratizatio The influence of social media? > n? polarization of political debate Financiarization of the economy? > (I) increased income inequality Neo-liberal revolution? > social conflict Globalization? > displacement of jobs Financial crisis in 2008; immigration flows since 2015  Some of these (supposed) reasons are associated with the recent success of populist parties and leaders Why Trump, LePen, Bolsonaro, Meloni (?)… …but also Chavez, Morales, AMLO autocratizatio n? (II) What is the link between autocratization and populism?