Presidential Elections PDF

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Dr. Pierce Ekstrom POLS 100 1  1. Nominating presidential candidates OVERVIEW 2. Electing the president (Electoral College) 2 1. NOMINATING PRESIDENTIAL...

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Dr. Pierce Ekstrom POLS 100 1  1. Nominating presidential candidates OVERVIEW 2. Electing the president (Electoral College) 2 1. NOMINATING PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES Understanding Presidential Primary Elections 3  FOUR PHASES OF PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION CAMPAIGNS 1. Invisible primary 2. Initial contests 3. “Mist clearing” stage 4. National convention 4  1. INVISIBLE PRIMARY Starts as soon as the election ends! Candidates “test the waters” Are evaluated based on (1) ability to raise money and (2) standing in the polls 5  2024 Republican Primary Polls (data from Huffpost Poster) 6 Source: 538 2016 Republican Primary Polls (data from Huffpost Poster) 7 News Coverage of Republican Primary Candidates 8 News Coverage of Republican Primary Candidates 9  2020 Democratic Primary Polls (data from Real Clear Politics) 10 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html  2. INITIAL CONTESTS Start in February of election year Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries Important mainly because they’re first, actual number of delegates at stake is small But, can lead to publicity and momentum Problem of frontloading states move their caucuses/primaries earlier to gain more influence 11  2016 PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS ( DATA : N E W YO R K T I M E S ) Iowa: New Hampshire: 12 2020 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS ( DATA : N E W YO R K T I M E S ) IOWA NEW HAMPSHIRE 13  3. “MIST CLEARING” STAGE “mist clearing” stage = ongoing process where strong candidates emerge, weaker candidates sifted out role of Super Tuesday (March) influence of frontloading 14 2016 Republican Primary Polls (data from Huffpost Poster) 15 2016 PRIMARY ELECTION: FINAL DELEGATE COUNT ( DATA : N E W YO R K T I M E S ) 16  2020 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY POLLS ( DATA : R E A L C L E A R P O L I T I C S ) 17 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html  2020 FINAL DELEGATE COUNT ( DATA : N E W YO R K T I M E S ) 18 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/delegate-count-primary-results.html 2024 19  4. NATIONAL CONVENTION The functions of the National Convention: Officially nominate candidates Approve party platform Unify the party Create a public image Adopt rules and regulations 20  4. NATIONAL CONVENTION 21 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ 2. ELECTING THE PRESIDENT Understanding how the Electoral College works 22  THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE Unique to the United States political system Reflects disagreement among the Founding Fathers Compromise between direct popular election and having the legislature select the president Not really intended to be democratic – citizens have indirect influence Violates the democratic principles of political equality and majority rule 23  HOW THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VIOLATES CORE DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES Violates political equality Value of a vote depends on where it is cast Small states are overrepresented (e.g., NE; Pop = 1.95 mil; 5 EVs;.00026% EVs/person) Large states are underrepresented (e.g., CA; Pop = 39.37 mil; 55 EVs;.00014% EVs/person) And winner-take-all means losers are not represented Has the potential to violate majority rule Elected president can win electoral college, but lose the popular vote For example: Bush vs. Gore (2000), Trump vs. Clinton (2016) 24 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES (2020) 25  VICTOR BY COUNTY (2016) Lincoln/Omaha area Dataviz: http://try-to-impeach-this.jetpack.ai/ 26 VOTES BY COUNTY (2016) 27  PROPOSALS TO REFORM THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE Proportional plan would divide state’s electoral votes in proportion to popular vote District plan divides electoral votes based on congressional districts and state plurality (Nebraska, Maine) Direct popular election plan would get rid of the electoral college, move to popular vote Would require a constitutional amendment! 28  DISCUSSION: ELECTORAL COLLEGE With your groups, come up with arguments for or against revising (or abolishing) the electoral college. We’ll assign you to either: 1: Defend the Electoral College. 2: Argue for a revision to the EC (Proportional or District allocation) 3: Argue for abolition (direct popular vote) 29  THE PROCESS Recounts 12/8/2020 12/14/2020 S t a t e l e g i s l a t u re s Votes are Pe o p l e Vo t e c e r t i f y re s u l t s , E l e c t o r s vo t e counted ap p o i n t e l e c t o r s 2020 Governors, 2016 faithless electors: State Houses, State Senates: WA: 4 (D) AZ: G H S HI: 1 (D) GA: G H S TX: 2 (R) MI: G H S PA: G H S 2020 faithless electors: Court WI: G H S None Challenges 30  THE PROCESS P re s i d e n t e l e c t e d 12/14/2020 1/6/2021 C o n g re s s m e e t s t o E l e c t o r s vo t e c o u n t vo t e s Capitol Riot H o u s e Vo t e s fo r P OT U S ( O n e vo t e / S t a t e ) S e n a t e Vo t e s fo r VP ( I n d i v i d u a l s vo t e ) 31 CONGRE S S ION AL E LE CTIONS Dr. Pierce Ekstrom POLS 100 32  Nomination process & general election Incumbency advantage OVERVIEW Apportionment and redistricting Gerrymandering 33 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS 34  CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS Different rules for winning no Electoral College, just a winner-take-all system Smaller constituencies & shifting political jurisdictions (via redistricting) No term limits & big incumbent advantage (especially for the House of Representatives) Only challenged if they seem vulnerable (or not running for reelection) 35  GENERAL ELECTION Need plurality of votes to win (not majority) Senate vote based on statewide popular vote (18th Amendment, 1913) House vote: 1 representative – statewide popular vote >1 representative – district popular vote 36 2022 SENATE ELECTION https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/senate  38 https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house  APPORTIONMENT House of Representatives apportioned among the states on the basis of population House has been the same size (435 members) since 1910 Number of reps per state adjusted every 10 years based on the census, through process called reapportionment 39 REAPPORTIONMENT 2020 40  CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS Representatives are chosen based on single-member district system States are divided into districts, each district elects a representative Redistricting happens after each reapportionment (after the census) Sometimes the redistricting process is biased—this is called gerrymandering 41  NEBRASKA’S 1 CONGRESSIONAL 3 DISTRICTS 2 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/nebraska/ 42 GERRYMANDERING 43  GERRYMANDERING Gerrymandering - drawing district boundaries to benefit one interest and hinder another Happens in different ways: Partisan gerrymanders Incumbent gerrymanders Racial gerrymanders Supreme Court has officially ruled against gerrymandering, but it still happens… Wesberry v. Sanders (1964) - one person, one vote 44  RACIAL GERRYMANDERING Majority-minority districts – Black-majority or Latino-majority Shaw v. Reno (1993) – race cannot be sole criteria used to draw districts Descriptive representation – maximize number of minority representatives elected vs. Substantive representation – basic interests of various groups more important 45  ONGOING DEBATE ABOUT PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING Multiple recent cases related to partisan gerrymandering: Common Cause v. Rucho (2019) – partisan gerrymandering in North Carolina Gill v.Whitford (2018) – partisan gerrymandering in Wisconsin (sent back to lower courts) Similar cases in Pennsylvania and Maryland In 2019,The Supreme Court (5-4, conservative majority) ruled that partisan gerrymandering raises political questions beyond the purview of the federal courts (leaving NC and MD’s districts in place). 46  CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS IN SUM Candidates selected in primary elections, winners determined in general election via winner-take-all system (single-member district system) State representation (in the House of Representatives) is based on population as determined by the census After the census, reapportionment, then redistricting (this will all happen again after 2020 census is complete) Gerrymandering (biased redistricting) is a controversial, pervasive problem – there will continue to be legal challenges 47  DISCUSSION: GERRYMANDERING In your groups, come up with research questions about gerrymandering. What information would you want to collect to determine whether gerrymandering is “good,” “bad,” or neutral? (Basically: what potentially good or bad effects of gerrymandering are you most interested in learning about?) 48