12th Module.pptx

IV REALITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR THE EU (BEFORE, NOW, AND FUTURE) The challenges of the present and the future 12th MODULE Marco da Costa, Ph.D Department of Political Science Saint Louis University INTRODUCTION  Debate and discussion on the future of the European Union never abates… WHY? … because...

IV REALITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR THE EU (BEFORE, NOW, AND FUTURE) The challenges of the present and the future 12th MODULE Marco da Costa, Ph.D Department of Political Science Saint Louis University INTRODUCTION  Debate and discussion on the future of the European Union never abates… WHY? … because the EU is NOT a stable polity and the political project to build an ‘ever closer union’ continues (“Work in Progress”).  The EU is in a period of transition, a critical juncture, and is subject to multiple, and not necessarily convergent, trends and pressures (AND CHALLENGES)? The departure of the UK (medium-long term) Euroscepticism and opposition to migration from the radical right Turbulences of global politics –the “new” rol of the EU (foreign policy) Misinformation AI (regulation) Fight against organized crime and drug trafficking (security)  Ursula von der Leyen, Commission President, when she outlined her key political priorities at the European Parliament (EP) in July 2019 before her election, aimed to take the Union beyond crisis politics to a focus on four transformative projects: - A European Green Deal - New Digital Economy - Strengthening Europe’s role in the world Commission Work Programme (CWP, 2024): six headline ambitions (PDF in Canvas –Module 7th ) A European Green Deal (pp. 7-8) A Europe fit for the digital age (pp. 8-9) An economy that works for people (pp. 9-10) A stronger Europe in the world (pp. 11-12) Promoting our European way of life (pp. 12-13) EUROPE´S UNSTABLE NEIGHBORHOOD  The combined effects of the economic crisis and instability in the neighbourhood have further weakened the prospect of enlargement beyond the Balkans (Serbia, Bosnia, etc.).  The conflict between Palestine and Israel in October, 2023 (Module 9th): islamic terrorism, anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, Schengen Agreement (in crisis?), etc. Divisions in the EU / and between member states: Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commision, supporting the legitimate defence of Israel and Josep Borrell High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security Policy, criticizing the bombings for  The Ukraine War: A) Dependency on Russian gas (especially in Germany). B) Russia has actively engaged in hostile cyberattacks against the member states and seeks to foster opposition to European integration (fake news, “digital” war, “dark” diplomacy, etc.). REMEMBER: The influence of Russia in the new candidates: Russia regards Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia as part of its sphere of influence THE POLICY-MAKING IN EXTERNAL RELATIONS (Module 8th) Reflections  The period of contested American unipolarity, defined by US economic, political, and military preponderance has ended.  Multi-polarity now seems an increasingly pronounced feature of the international system, underlined, FOR EXAMPLE, by the transcendence of the G8, the G20, and the counterweight of the BRICS (The growing weight of China and others, notably India, Brazil, and Russia, points to a relative decline in the power of the USA and Europe, especially within the international political economy). There is the rise of states in Asia, Africa, and Latin America (“GLOBAL SOUTH” / or BRICS+: it is a geopolitical platform of the world economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa formed by the 2006; it is a counterweight in the international order to the forums of countries led by the West, such as the G-7 or the G20; NEW candidates (January 2024): Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (Milei-Argentina, no). BUT…. there are strange bedfellows: for example, Iran with Saudi Arabia, more pro-American country; India as an ally of USA and EU vs China and Russia; historical conflicts between China and India; etc). Now, these 10 countries could represent 37% of the world's GDP and 46% of the world's population. China is sometimes presented in the USA as the country most likely to challenge American ascendancy in the coming decades. According to the US National Intelligence Council report (2012), “by 2030, Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based POLARIZATION OF THE WORLD SEEN THROUGH THESE CONFLICTS SUPPORTING ISRAEL AND SUPPORTING UKRAINE PALESTINE USA EU THE ARAB WORLD (rift) AUSTRALIA BRICS (just India-with Modi, antiislamic policies: this country is neutral in the Ukraine war) Latin America (especially, Peru, Argentina, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay) Japan Taiwan (vs China) Countries with a good relationship with the USA embrace a moderate stance in this conflict but critical with Israel. Which ones? Saudi Arabia Morocco Egypt Turkey Qatar Jordan The United Arab Emirates pro-Palestine (The rest of the arab countries): Syria, Iran, Irak, Libya or Algeria Latin America (Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua) And the EU and its rol in the global politics?  The EU does not want to have to take sides between the USA and China although the Union has classified China as both a cooperation partner, competitor, and a systemic rival.  To minimize China's influence on the economic level, the EU, in its foreign policy, is seeking new markets from 2023… in Latin America, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico OBJECTIVES OF THE VISIT OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION TO SOME LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES (ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, CHILE, AND MEXICO): JUNE 12-15TH, 2023  Europe needs raw materials, TO NOT DEPEND on China, and Bolivia, Argentina and Chile have 60% of lithium reserves: basic raw materials for its Green Deal and develop the energy transition and the promotion of renewable energies.  There is an obvious geopolitical objective to strengthen diplomatic ties given the polarization of the world (Ukraine War, Israel, USA vs China, etc).  The European Union wants to promote democracy, security, the reduction of inequalities and respect for human rights in these countries (values of the EU). Promoting our European way of life / A new push for European democracy (CWP, 2024)  Otherrival: objectives help these in their fight America against  Economic Chinaare hadtomultiplied itscountries investment in Latin drug trafficking, and Europe corruption and help and through economic between 2000 and 2020 (and had not noticed had lost a lot agreements in infrastructure or scientific of influence in Latin America): no excuses; don´t projects. blame China.  summary, the European promised investments  Latin In American countries do notUnion want has to be seen aslarge a region of raw in theextraction region. material (memories of colonialism?), but rather they want to be partners at the same level where both parties benefit. MISINFORMATION – LAST EXAMPLE APRIL 2024 (RUSSIA AND THE EP) EUROPEAN ELECTIONS MEPS (Far Right Parties) RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AND NETWORKS RUSSIAN ESPIONAGE DISINFORMATION AND DESTABILIZATION PAYMENTS – ENISA (European Union Agency for Cybersecurity) high-ranking- TOP TEN- 2030 cyber threats FIGHT AGAINST ORGANIZED CRIME AND DRUG TRAFFICKING Official EU agency on 1 January 2010. Security threats: terrorism; international drug trafficking and money laundering; organised fraud; the counterfeiting of euros-falsification; trafficking in human APRIL 5th 2024:  A group of Europol experts and analysts, based on data provided by EU members and 17 Europol associate countries, have identified 821 “high-risk” criminal networks in the European Union.  In this report “Decoding the EU’s most threatening criminal networks”: Drug trafficking is one of the main activities: Half of the criminal organizations are related with drug trafficking (Cocaine, cannabis, and synthetic drugs). 5,000 members of 112 different nationalities. 86% have managed to infiltrate the legal business world to “hide their activities and launder their criminal income”. 76% of networks operate in at least two countries or even seven at the same time. 68% use violence and intimidation. The report made public does not detail the names and details of each network identified in each country, information that, however, Europol now has in its new database, which it will share with the national authorities responsible for combating THE RISE OF POPULISM  The last 5-10 years: Rising populism (*parenthesis) has gone hand in hand with an increase in Euroscepticism as illustrated by the surge in support for anti-EU political parties in European elections (The 2019 elections resulted in gains for the radical right and *left), some national elections (Poland, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, etc.), coalitions with the Far-Right parties (VOX), or Brexit. *DIFFERENCE? (Unidas Podemos vs. VOX in terms of euroscepticism): Left-wing radicalism is also Eurosceptic but seeks a different EU: more social and interventionist.  Populism criticises the EU for being undemocratic in its decisions (“democratic deficit”: Module 3rd) and how to manage some issues when… *Percentage of populist parties (Far Right Party) in EU national parliaments (2024) HUNGARY 59% (Fidesz) POLAND 35% (PiS – “Law and Justice”) TOP ITALY 30% (Fratelli d'Italia) 3?NETHERLANDS 23% (“Party for Freedom”) SLOVAKIA 23% (SMER) FINLAND 23% (“Finns Party”) SWEDEN 21% (“Sweden Democrats” – SD) PORTUGAL 18% (Chega) AUSTRIA 16% (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs, FPÖ – “Freedom Party of Austria”) FRANCE 15% (Rassemblement National - RN) BELGIUM 12% (Vlaams Belang - VB) – Chinese espionage (March 2024) GERMANY 11% (AfD - Alternative für Deutschland) *SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FAR RIGHT PARTIES?  What two important events of the 21st century mark the rise and consolidation of this type of populism and radical right? 2- 19/11 The 2015 migration crisis with the arrival of immigrants and refugees to the EU fleeing the war in Syria  Xenophobia: Rejection of immigration, social, religious, ethnic groups, etc., that suppose a threat…. ….to the “national community” in terms of work …..to the cultural identity of the country ……to the welfare state (“welfare chauvinism”: health care, public education, etc, just for the national citizens)  Rejection of multiculturalism.  Defense of the racist theory of the “Great Replacement” of the native population (WASP: White Anglo-Saxon Protestant) by Muslim foreigners or by foreign populations with different cultures (Latin community in the USA; muslims, in Spain).  Rejection of capitalist globalization.  “Ethnocratic liberalism” (Roger Griffin)? discriminatory exclusion within institutions and democratically validated at the polls. REMEMBER The Treaty on European Union (TEU, 1992): In Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union, which states that ‘the Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities. These values are common to the Member States in a society in which pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity and equality between women and REMEMBER The Amsterdam Treaty (1999) introduced for the first time a sanction mechanism (now, Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union) in case a member state does not respect the values of the EU, as set out in Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union, including democracy, the rule of law, and human rights.  However, it has proven difficult to put this article into practice. WHY?  First, it is worth noting that Article 7 does not explicitly provide the opportunity to expel a member state.  Secondly, to impose a sanction, the decision has to be taken unanimously by the European Council. PROBLEM?  This is problematic when the EU faces several member states that do not respect the rule of law, as they tend to support each other in avoiding Article 7 sanctions. Imposing sanctions might also not be very effective if the sanction is not perceived as very painful by the disrespecting member state, and such (threat of) sanction is used nationally as a way to further consolidate power by calling on sentiments of national pride against EU interference (“populist victimhood”). What mechanisms does the EU have to punish those member states that do not respect article 2 of the TEU such as...? Viktor Orban (Hungary) …where the basic principles of democratic governance and the rule of law are being challenged, undermining the independence of the judiciary, curtailing pluralism of the media, not fighting against corruption, not respecting academic freedom (book censorship) or changing electoral systems to remain unchallenged in power. Equal in Poland where, besides, the polish government undermined the fundamental rights of minorities, such as the LGBT+ community. Law and Justice (Poland) What mechanisms does the EU have to punish those member states that do not respect article 2 of the TEU? There is a tool that allows the EU to adopt sanction: 'hurt' a member state not respecting the rule of law, limiting or blocking their receipt of EU funding (“Fondos europeos comunes”). In 2023 the EU blocked 63 billion to Hungary and Poland for non-compliance with European standards and violations of the rule of law. (2024: complicated relations between the EU and the new pro-Russian and populist Slovakia - Robert Fico - Peter Pellegrini) ELECTIONS IN POLAND (October, 2023). Outcomes: 35.38% of the votes went to Law and Justice (PiS), a populist rightwing formation led by Jarosław Kaczyński, which has been in power since 2015. Donald Tusk 30.70% of the votes were obtained by the Civic Coalition (KO), led by Donald Tusk, former Prime Minister of Poland (and former President of the European Council). It is a coalition of several liberal and NEW DIGITAL ECONOMY: THE REGULATION OF THE NEW TECHNOLOGIES (AI) In December 2023, there was an agreement. The Parliament approved the new law on AI (the AI ​Act) in March 2024 (pending formal ratification by Member States- May?). Europe becomes the first region in the world to regulate AI before 2026 (full application-this year). The objective of this new law is to respect European values and ethic ​(rule of law, democratic values, environmental sustainability, etc.), as well as not damage innovation, the  The first steps will be: 1) There will be an IA Office that will monitor compliance with the regulations. 2) Although the EU already promotes a voluntary and gradual implementation of future rules (till 2026) for AI in companies and institutions… - one of the parts that will come into force for everyone at the latest before the end of the year is the ban on prohibited intelligence systems artificial, which according to the regulations must be implemented six months after the law is approved (Unacceptable risk): The main red line was to regulate biometric surveillance (facial recognition for political, social, religious, sexual or racial reasons) which many countries with little democratic tradition are using to control their citizens. - Limited risk: the only requirement placed on providers (Open AI, for example) is that they inform users that they are using an AI tool (Deepfakes - In 2020, a pornographic video was generated using the face of Meloni, leader of the opposition at that time. Now the trial begins in which she claims 100,000 euros from two Italian citizens ). - High risk: These AI applications will require continuous monitoring: systems that affect the security of critical infrastructure and those related to education (behavioral assessment, admission and examination systems), employment CONTROVERSY: regulation of so-called real-time remote biometric identification systems:  This category would include, for example, the extensive network of facial recognition cameras spread throughout large Chinese cities that allow anyone to be located in a few minutes.  In the new law, it is said that they can always be used with judicial authorization in alleged cases of... - The search for certain victims of crime, including missing persons; - certain threats to the life or physical safety of natural persons or threats of a terrorist attack; - and the location or identification of the perpetrators or suspects of criminal offenses. MIGRATION POLICIES (Module 10th) After the failure of the EAM in 2015… In 2020, the New Pact on Migration and Asylum was proposed by the European Commission… till now. Last week, the European Parliament approved it. VIDEO Now it will be the Member States who will vote on it but it is a protocol because this new immigration policy has already been approved by them (May? = AI Act).  In favor of this pact? EPP / S&D / Renew Some MEPs have broken the "party" vote Against? 1) NGO´s and European United Left/Nordic Green Left. WHY? They say it is a law adapted to the Far Right Parties and that it restricts the right to asylum. 2) European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID). WHY? Remember: Before this Pact, migration policies depended on the Member States that received those immigrants for the first time in European territory. And the countries that complained about these policies were countries like... Irregular immigration in the Mediterranean (Spain, Italy, and Greece) Arrivals from January 1 to July 31, 2023 - LINK FIVE REGULATIONS – PACT ON MIGRATION AN D ASYLUM  Control and processing of immigrant data  European border control  Judicial protection  Administration of immigration crises such as that of 2015  Management and care of asylum seekers 322 votes in favor, 31 abstentions and 266 votes against (some EPP Donald Tusk has said he is against quotas. Before winning the elections, there was a consensus (last June in 2023, Hungary and Poland voted against) in the European Council and… there is a unanimity voting  Quotas are permanently established that the Member States must accept. 30,000 asylum seekers per year (last year 180,000 people in an irregular situation arrived in community territory) will be distributed among the Member States according to population criteria and the GDP. All Member States will receive between 10,00012,000 euros for each person  But these quotas will be flexible, why? Those member states, who refuse to accept them, will have to contribute to the common solidarity basket  The European Union wants to promote through this new immigration policy concepts such as... SOLIDARITY and RESPONSIBILITY (vs. 2015 and after)  The European Union seeks a balance (paradoxical, in my opinion) between A) protecting the rights of these people and protecting, at the same time, B) European borders. A) The application procedures of those asylum seekers who really need protection when coming from countries that violate their rights will be studied; those who do not need that protection will return to their countries of origin (Roberta Metsola). B) For this reason that in recent months the European Commission and some European leaders are reaching agreements with third countries to…  The European Commission's migration agreement with Tunisia to stop illegal emigration in exchange for significant economic financing. The Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of Tunisia, Kais Said, and the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni (July, 2023)  This migration pact, which could be extended to other countries of origin or transit, was highly criticized by the European Parliament given Said's authoritarian regime and the violation of human rights against sub-Saharan immigration, seen by President Said as a threat to  In January 2024, 80% of the "cayucos" that arrived in the Canary Islands with irregular emigrants left the coasts of Mauritania. WHY?  Many of these immigrants are not only from Mauritania but mainly from countries with military coups d'état and war conflicts such as Mali and Niger (Sahel The end of the “Françafrique”?  Françafrique is a kind of neocolonialism that France tried to continue despite the independence of its former colonies (military presence; economy and political links; French culture; etc).  Now with the new geopolitics and the entry of China and Russia into Africa, France has lost a lot of political weight in its former colonies.  The anti-French sentiment that emerges from the coups d'état in Mali (May 2021), Burkina Faso (January 2022), Niger (July 2023) or Gabon (August 2023) are significant of the new geopolitics and the ebruary 8th, 2024: Von der Leyen, Sánchez, and Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazo  It is another example of the new European policies to fight against irregular emigration: financing countries of origin and transit so that these countries control their borders.  March 3rd, 2024: agreement between the EU and Mauritania (the only stable country in the Sahel: the rest, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso are military boards that have signed military agreements with Russia).  200 million euros to 1-stop irregular emigration and 2promote regular Grande-Marlaska and Ylva Johansson (Commissioner for Home Affairs)  March 16 and 17: agreements with Egypt on commercial and renewable energy projects but, again, EUROS to... cooperate with the EU in its fight against irregular immigration.  The next step will be Morocco.  All the money to these countries comes from a previously approved budget line for immigration management... BUT...  There is a lot of criticism from Parliament… WHY? A) for signing agreements with countries with a negative record regarding human rights. B) for possible violations of Parliament's control power and transparency rules. REFLECTIONS, QUESTIONS, AND DOUBTS (about Pact on Migration)         There are so many divisions and opinions: no one seems satisfied. Is it significant that left and right extremism agree on this PACT? Solidarity? (20.000 euros per person): Viktor Orban. This number of applications for asylum-seekers (30.000) will harden the evaluation criteria for entry into the European Union (?). The application procedures of those asylum seekers who really need protection when coming from countries that violate their rights will be studied; those who do not need that protection will return to their countries of origin (Roberta Metsola). Does this migration Pact take away a political argument from the extreme right and populism in general? I am thinking about the European citizen and their future vote in the elections. What does the European Union really want with this new legislation, one of the great challenges for its future and for the new geopolitics? Does it mean anything that the European Council has previously reached an agreement and the European Parliament is so divided? CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY TRANSITION  It refers to the global energy sector's shift from fossil-based systems of energy production and consumption — including oil, natural gas and coal — to renewable energy sources like wind and solar, as well as lithium-ion batteries. Nuclear energy? Different opinions:  Poland and France are working to promote nuclear energy (it does not produce CO2) as renewable energy compatible with solar energy (it is cheaper).  China and many emerging countries are also in favour and the countries of Eastern Europe, as well.  Germany has closed all its nuclear power plants. THE EUROPEAN UNION THE EUROPEAN GREEN DEAL (EGD) in 2019 (“EL PACTO VERDE EUROPEO”) LINK THE EUROPEAN UNION LINK UNITED NATIONS The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) UNITED NATIONS LINK The majority of far-right populist parties in Europe (political groups in the EP such as IDIdentity and Democracy, ECREuropean Conservative and Reformists, and even EPPEuropean People’s Party) do not want to follow the dictates of the VOX2030 Agenda or the 🇪🇸 European @vox_esGreen Deal (EGD, 2019). Decide lo que importa (Post in X): ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ Libertad Seguridad Fronteras Familia Campo Industria June 17th, 2023, center of Madrid (Barrio de FEBRUARY-MARCH 2024 – FARMERS PROTESTS  A more protectionist Europe ("unfair competition" with the rest of international markets).  Stop forming agreements with Mercosur that are free trade agreements where these products enter Europe with fewer bureaucratic obstacles and often do not meet the requirements demanded by the EU (meat from South America, lamb from New Zealand, tomatoes and vegetables from Morocco, etc..)  They agree with the Green Agenda (Mainly, because farmers depend on aid from the CAP-The Common Agricultural Policy), but the energy transition suffocates them economically if they do not receive more aid from the EU.  There is a contrast in these protests between: Greenwashing ("good image" of the environment) vs. Greenblaming (neologism in which the objective is to blame all environmental policies, not just the EU).  They reject the reduction of emissions on agricultural farms (small towns and rural areas far from urban centers depend on fossil fuels because there are no means of transport: The “Empty” Spain.  They reject the highest tax on fossil fuels.  They reject the reduction of fertilizer use.  Farmers don't like it either the Nature Restoration Law approved by the EP in March 2024: this law obliges EU member states to reserve 20% of their land and sea surface for nature restoration until 2030.  And REMEMBER: