World Economic Outlook 2024

Questions and Answers

What was the growth rate of India's GDP for FY2024 as per the provisional estimates?

7.6%

7.3%

8.2% (correct)

5.4%

Which fiscal year marked the second consecutive year of GDP growth exceeding 7% in India?

FY2021

FY2022

FY2023

FY2024 (correct)

What trend did India's GDP growth follow as indicated in the content?

It initially increased and then decreased.

It steadily declined each year.

It showed acceleration with macro stability. (correct)

It fluctuated unpredictably.

What does the acronym 'PE' represent in reference to India's GDP growth estimates?

Provisional Estimate Signup and view all the answers

What was the average inflation growth momentum during FY2024 as indicated in the content?

5.4% Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following estimates did NOT reflect GDP growth for FY2024?

Initial Estimate Signup and view all the answers

What percentage did the growth rate of India's GDP get revised from the first advance estimates to the second advance estimates for FY2024?

From 7.3% to 7.6% Signup and view all the answers

Which organization provided the statistics regarding global trade volume mentioned in the content?

World Trade Organization Signup and view all the answers

What was the trend seen in the fiscal policy stance as described?

Gradual consolidation with increased allocations Signup and view all the answers

Which fiscal measure reflects a percentage of GDP change?

Gross fiscal deficit Signup and view all the answers

How is capital expenditure represented in the context provided?

As a fluctuating metric across fiscal years Signup and view all the answers

What does the term 'fiscal deficit' imply according to the context?

The total expenditure minus total revenue Signup and view all the answers

What could a higher allocation in fiscal policy imply?

Increased investment in public infrastructure and services Signup and view all the answers

In the fiscal context, which of these represents the economic measure over years?

Cumulative fiscal deficit changes Signup and view all the answers

What was the expected impact of fiscal consolidation on the economy?

Stabilization of economic growth rates Signup and view all the answers

Which fiscal year is likely referenced as showing notable patterns in expenditures?

FY2024 Signup and view all the answers

What does the chart likely indicate about the ratios presented?

A comparison of fiscal deficits across fixed years Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following likely influences capital expenditure measurements?

Government borrowing rates Signup and view all the answers

What is the main focus of the Union budget for FY2025 concerning agriculture?

Improving productivity and resilience in agriculture Signup and view all the answers

What challenge is posed by the large share of small and marginal holdings in Indian agriculture?

They limit the potential for technological advancements. Signup and view all the answers

What is the relationship between farm output and rural income?

Higher yields can increase farmers' real income. Signup and view all the answers

What might be a negative consequence of higher food inflation in rural areas?

Potential wage-price spiral adversely affecting the economy. Signup and view all the answers

What key factor has constrained India’s crop yields compared to other countries?

Inadequate investment in agriculture. Signup and view all the answers

What is contributing to the expected acceleration of private-sector investment in India?

Higher utilization of existing production capacities Signup and view all the answers

How has the commitment to fiscal consolidation impacted the cost of capital for the private sector?

It has eased pressures on the cost of capital. Signup and view all the answers

Which factor has helped in containing inflation risk premium?

Moderation in inflation and proactive monetary policy Signup and view all the answers

What initiative has strengthened the underlying forces of economic growth in India?

Targeted production-linked incentive scheme for key sectors Signup and view all the answers

In the context of rural demand in India, how is consumption demand expected to change?

It is expected to improve and become broad-based. Signup and view all the answers

What impact has geopolitical factors had on India's economy?

Realignment of global supply chains enhancing attractiveness for production Signup and view all the answers

What has been a determining factor in addressing risk aversion among financial institutions in India?

Healthy balance sheets of corporates and banks Signup and view all the answers

What is a significant outcome of India's strategy to improve the ease of doing business?

Enhanced business attractiveness and growth Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following sectors is NOT mentioned as a focus for India's proactive approach?

Textile manufacturing Signup and view all the answers

What impact has the localization of production had on India’s ability to meet global demand?

Enhanced India's attractiveness as a reliable source of low-cost production Signup and view all the answers

What was the foodgrain production in India for AY2024 based on the Third Advance Estimate?

304 million tonnes Signup and view all the answers

Which year experienced the lowest foodgrain production recorded in the available data?

AY2015 Signup and view all the answers

What is indicated by the acronym TAE in the context of agricultural estimates?

Third Advance Estimate Signup and view all the answers

How did the foodgrain production trend from AY2021 to AY2024?

First increased, then decreased significantly Signup and view all the answers

What was the foodgrain production for AY2022 based on the Second Advance Estimate?

288 million tonnes Signup and view all the answers

Which estimate marks a significant production milestone in AY2023?

Third Advance Estimate Signup and view all the answers

In AY2019, what was the production of cereals reported?

285 million tonnes Signup and view all the answers

What does SAE stand for in agricultural production estimates?

Second Advance Estimate Signup and view all the answers

Which year saw a production peak for foodgrains at 330 million tonnes?

AY2024 Signup and view all the answers

How much foodgrain was produced in AY2023 according to the Second Advance Estimate?

304 million tonnes Signup and view all the answers

What percentage did global merchandise trade contract in 2023?

1.2% Signup and view all the answers

According to UNCTAD, by what percentage did foreign direct investment to developing economies decline in 2023?

9% Signup and view all the answers

What was the projected growth rate of world output for 2024?

3.2% Signup and view all the answers

What was the growth rate of world trade volume for goods and services in 2023?

0.8% Signup and view all the answers

How many new restrictions on trade were imposed by countries in 2023?

3,000 Signup and view all the answers

What was the year-on-year growth percentage for EMDEs in 2023?

4.4% Signup and view all the answers

What was the percentage decline in non-oil commodity prices in 2023?

-5.7% Signup and view all the answers

What was the consumer price growth percentage for advanced economies in 2023?

4.6% Signup and view all the answers

What were the formidable headwinds impacting India's economic growth in FY2024?

The formidable headwinds were primarily stemming from challenges in the global economy. Signup and view all the answers

How did GDP growth in India change from the first advance estimates to the provisional estimates for FY2024?

GDP growth was revised upward from 7.3% to 8.2% in the provisional estimates. Signup and view all the answers

What percentage of GDP growth did the second advance estimates report for India in FY2024?

The second advance estimates reported a GDP growth of 7.6% for FY2024. Signup and view all the answers

What trend is indicated by the growth rates of India's GDP from FY2020 to FY2024?

The trend shows a recovery and strengthening growth, moving from a decline in FY2020 to consistent growth rates of 7% or higher from FY2022 onward. Signup and view all the answers

What does the term GDP at 2011-12 prices indicate in the context of India's economic performance?

It indicates that GDP figures are adjusted for inflation based on 2011-12 price levels, allowing for real growth comparisons. Signup and view all the answers

What implications might a robust growth momentum have for inflationary pressures in India?

Robust growth momentum may lead to increased demand, potentially putting upward pressure on inflation. Signup and view all the answers

How did India's economic growth in FY2024 reflect its overall macroeconomic stability?

The sustained growth of 7% or higher over consecutive years suggests strong macroeconomic fundamentals and stability. Signup and view all the answers

What role does the National Statistical Office play in the context of India's GDP estimates?

The National Statistical Office is responsible for compiling and releasing official GDP estimates and revisions. Signup and view all the answers

What could be the potential outcomes of India's growth pattern on future fiscal policy measures?

The growth pattern could lead to increased government revenue and potentially more aggressive fiscal measures to sustain growth. Signup and view all the answers

Why is it significant that India achieved 7% or higher growth for three consecutive years?

This signifies economic resilience and indicates a strong recovery trajectory post-pandemic. Signup and view all the answers

What role does fiscal consolidation play in shaping the cost of capital for the private sector?

Fiscal consolidation eases pressures on the cost of capital, making it more favorable for private-sector investment. Signup and view all the answers

How has the improving rural demand contributed to India's economic landscape?

Improving rural demand has broadened consumption momentum, which is integral to accelerating private-sector investment. Signup and view all the answers

What measures have been taken to strengthen the logistics and ease of doing business in India?

India has implemented targeted production-linked incentive schemes and policies focused on improving logistics and business facilitation. Signup and view all the answers

In what ways have corporate and financial institutions' balance sheets contributed to addressing risk aversion?

Healthy balance sheets of corporates and banks have reduced risk aversion by promoting confidence in financial stability. Signup and view all the answers

How has geopolitical realignment influenced India's position in the global market?

Geopolitical realignment has enhanced India's attractiveness as a reliable source of low-cost production to meet global demand. Signup and view all the answers

What does the trend in foodgrain production from AY2018 to AY2024 suggest about agricultural performance in India?

The trend indicates a generally increasing performance, particularly peaking in AY2024 with 330 million tonnes. Signup and view all the answers

Based on the data, how did the production of pulses in AY2024 compare to AY2023?

Pulses production declined from 27 million tonnes in AY2023 to 24 million tonnes in AY2024. Signup and view all the answers

How many million tonnes of foodgrains were produced in AY2021 according to the given data?

In AY2021, foodgrain production amounted to 252 million tonnes. Signup and view all the answers

What might contribute to the fluctuations observed in foodgrain production from AY2020 to AY2023?

Factors such as climate variability, agricultural policies, and input quality likely contributed to the fluctuations. Signup and view all the answers

What significant change occurred in the production of cereals from AY2023 to AY2024 according to the estimates?

Cereal production increased from 304 million tonnes in AY2023 to 316 million tonnes in AY2024. Signup and view all the answers

What does the acronym 'TAE' signify in the context of foodgrain estimates?

'TAE' stands for Third Advance Estimate. Signup and view all the answers

In which agricultural year was the production of foodgrains recorded at the lowest level, based on the provided data?

The lowest foodgrain production was recorded in AY2015 at 235 million tonnes. Signup and view all the answers

What factors might limit the production estimation accuracy represented by the Second Advance Estimates (SAE)?

Limitations may arise from forecasting models, seasonal changes, and agricultural practices. Signup and view all the answers

What level of foodgrain production does AY2023's Second Advance Estimate indicate?

The Second Advance Estimate for AY2023 indicates foodgrain production of 304 million tonnes. Signup and view all the answers

From the data provided, what production trend is shown for foodgrains over the last three agriculture years?

Foodgrain production has shown a consistent upward trend over the last three agriculture years. Signup and view all the answers

What was the Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE) trend from FY2000 to FY2023 in urban areas?

The urban MPCE increased over the years, rising from around $3,773$ in FY2000 to $6,459$ in FY2023. Signup and view all the answers

How did the Rural MPCE as a percentage of Urban MPCE change from FY2000 to FY2023?

It declined from $54.4 ext{%}$ in FY2000 to $58.4 ext{%}$ in FY2023, indicating increasing disparity. Signup and view all the answers

What was the Rural MPCE in FY2010 according to the provided data?

The Rural MPCE in FY2010 was approximately $2,630$. Signup and view all the answers

What was the reported Rural MPCE in FY2012?

The reported Rural MPCE in FY2012 was $1,984$. Signup and view all the answers

In FY2023, what was the Urban MPCE recorded in the data?

The Urban MPCE in FY2023 was $6,459$. Signup and view all the answers

What does MPCE stand for in the context of the given data, and why is it significant?

MPCE stands for Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure, and it is significant as it reflects the standard of living. Signup and view all the answers

How did the Rural MPCE figure in FY2005 compare to that in FY2000?

In FY2005, the Rural MPCE was $1,054$, which is lower than the $1,054$ recorded in FY2000. Signup and view all the answers

What percentage did Rural MPCE represent of Urban MPCE in FY2010?

In FY2010, Rural MPCE represented approximately $52.4 ext{%}$ of Urban MPCE. Signup and view all the answers

What is indicated by the trend in the increase of the Rural MPCE as a percentage of Urban MPCE from FY2000 to FY2023?

The increase indicates a growing relative consumption pattern of rural households compared to urban households. Signup and view all the answers

Based on the data, which fiscal year saw the highest Rural MPCE recorded?

The highest Rural MPCE recorded was in FY2023 at approximately $1,105$. Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Domestic Macroeconomic Developments

India achieved a sustained growth rate of 7% or higher in FY2024, marking the third consecutive year of robust growth despite global economic challenges.
GDP growth was revised from 7.3% to 8.2% based on provisional estimates, indicating stronger economic performance than initially anticipated.
Fiscal policy has focused on gradual consolidation, with increased allocations for capital expenditure contributing positively to the economy.

Fiscal Deficit and Expenditure

Gross fiscal deficit percentages fluctuated over recent fiscal years, with projections for FY2024 signaling a commitment to fiscal discipline.
Capital expenditure has shown a positive trend, highlighting the government's focus on infrastructure development and economic stimulation.

Agricultural Sector Performance

Foodgrain production reached significant figures with 330 million tonnes in AY2024, supported by robust growth in cereals and pulses.
Initiatives in agri-start-ups promote innovations throughout the agricultural value chain, aiming to enhance productivity and sustainability.

Investment and Consumption Dynamics

There is an expected acceleration in private-sector investment fueled by strong growth from public sector capital expenditure and higher production capacity utilization.
Consumption demand is broadening, with a notable improvement in rural demand, contributing to economic stability.

External Factors and Global Positioning

Despite a challenging global environment, India's services exports showed resilience, and its position as a low-cost production source is strengthening, aided by global supply chain realignment.
The shift toward renewable energy, digitalization, and semiconductor production is emphasized as critical for future growth prospects.

Agricultural Productivity

Improving productivity in agriculture is key to addressing food security and economic growth challenges projected for 2047, with commitments made in the FY2025 Union budget.
The need for increased capital and technological investment in agriculture is recognized to uplift crop yields and overall economic performance.

Challenges and Opportunities

Low agricultural labor productivity compared to other sectors presents ongoing challenges, with smallholder farming posing additional complications.
Addressing wage-price spirals through improved farm output and productivity-linked wages is essential to safeguard the macroeconomic outlook and enhance rural prosperity.

Global Trade Overview

Global merchandise trade shrank by 1.2% in 2023, while combined growth for goods and services was only 0.8%.
In 2022 and 2023, countries imposed approximately 3,200 and 3,000 new trade restrictions, respectively.
Foreign direct investment to developing economies decreased by 9% in 2023, indicating subdued trade and investment growth impacted by geo-economic fragmentation.

Economic Indicators

World output growth was 3.5% in 2022, dropping to 3.3% in 2023, with projections of 3.2% for 2024.
Advanced economies experienced slower growth of 2.6% in 2022, declining to 1.7% in both 2023 and 2024.
Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) grew by 4.1% in 2022, increased to 4.4% in 2023, and is projected at 4.3% for 2024.

Trade Volume and Inflation

World trade volume for goods and services surged by 5.6% in 2022 but plummeted to 0.8% in 2023, anticipated to recover to 3.1% in 2024.
World trade volume specifically for goods fell sharply by 1.2% in 2023, following a gain of 3.0% in 2022.
World consumer prices rose by 8.7% in 2022 but moderated to 6.7% in 2023; expected to decline to 5.9% in 2024.

Commodity Prices

In the realm of commodities, oil prices plummeted by 16.4% in 2023, while non-oil commodities decreased by 5.7%.
Projections indicate modest recovery for oil prices at 0.8% and a rebound for non-oil prices by 5.0% in 2024.

India's Economic Growth

India recorded consistent growth rates of 7% or higher for three consecutive years despite global economic challenges.
GDP growth for FY2024 revised from 7.3% to 7.6% initially, and further improved to 8.2% in provisional estimates.

Agricultural Production

Foodgrain production in India showed slight fluctuations, with significant production figures reaching 330 million tonnes in AY2024, reflecting strong agricultural output.
Cereals, pulses, and food grain output are vital components of agricultural productivity trends.

Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE)

Urban MPCE figures were significantly higher than rural equivalents, reflecting disparities; Rural MPCE was 58.4% of urban in FY2024.
The trend highlights a growing alignment towards urban consumption patterns over rural counterparts.

Government Support and Growth Prospects

Sustained public sector capital expenditure and the utilization of existing production capacities are propelling private-sector investments.
Broad-based acceleration in consumption, particularly in rural areas, is boosting growth potentials.
Fiscal consolidation and easing cost pressures have positively influenced capital costs for the private sector amidst moderating inflation.

Investment and Sectoral Developments

Initiatives like production-linked incentive schemes for 14 key sectors are crucial for enhancing domestic production capabilities.
Focused policy on improving logistics and business operations, along with investment in renewables and digitalization, is strengthening the economy.
India remains an attractive low-cost production hub, bolstered by resilient services exports and realignment of global supply chains due to geopolitical influences.

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Description

This quiz focuses on the key insights and findings from the World Economic Outlook Update of July 2024, highlighting global trade dynamics and India's macroeconomic performance in FY2024. Test your understanding of international trade statistics and domestic economic developments.