Valuing Stocks and Market Fluctuations

Valuing Stocks

• Resignation of a company president: Kenneth Cole Productions, Inc.'s President, Paul Blum, resigned on January 16, 2006, to pursue other opportunities. The company's stock price had already decreased by over 16% in the past two years.
• Stock price decline: The news of the president's resignation caused a further 6% drop in Kenneth Cole's stock price on the New York Stock Exchange to $26.75 the next day. Trading volume exceeded the daily average.
• Investment decisions: Investors need to analyze expected cash flows and the appropriate cost of capital to value a stock.
• Law of One Price: The price of a security equals the present value of expected cash flows from owning it.
• Stock valuation: Determining a stock's value involves identifying relevant cash flows and using methods like dividend discounting or free cash flow valuation. Comparable firm valuations are also considered.
• Dividend-discount model: This model considers dividends and capital gains to value a stock.
• Multiyear investors: Value considerations extend to future dividends and prices over longer investment periods based on discounted cash flows, which do not depend on the investor's horizon.
• Total Return: The expected return on a stock equals the dividend yield plus the capital gain rate. The expected total return should equal the equity cost of capital.
• Stock prices and returns: Example problem involving Walgreens Boots Alliance with expected dividends and share price. Calculations reflect equity cost of capital, which is similar to the expected return for other investments with equivalent risk.
• Short selling: Borrowing shares to sell them in the market. Investors who don't own shares can profit if the share price decreases. Selling shares are reversed from purchasing.
• Cash flows from buying a stock: Initial purchase price, subsequent dividend payments, final sale price.
• Cash flows from short selling a stock: Initial revenue of share price, subsequent payments for dividends and return of share to holder to close out position.
• Mechanics of a short sale: Requires borrowing stocks from other investors, and includes cash flows related to the share price at the start and end of the short-position, and dividends paid during the open period.
• Multiyear investor valuation: Future cash flows from both dividends and the stock price at the end of the multi-year hold period are discounted to present value using the cost of equity.
• Growth of a firm: Dividend and earnings per share can grow over time and must be tracked with reasonable accuracy based on market conditions.
• Constant Dividend Growth: Stock price calculation in the case where dividends are expected to grow consistently at a rate g.
• Unprofitable growth: Example of Crane Sporting Goods: if the return on new investment is less than the firm's cost of capital, the stock price is likely to fall.
• Valuation using enterprise value: Enterprise value considers the total firm value from investors (equity & debt). Methods for calculating enterprise value from free cash flows (free cash flows to all investors) to estimate a firm's value
• Valuation using a price multiple: Valuing a firm based on the values of similar firms. Price-earnings ratio (P/E) divides a firm's share price by its per share earnings. Enterprise value to EBITDA ratio divides an enterprise value by a firm's Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA).

The Dividend-Discount Model and its limitations

• Dividend-discount model equation: The general formula for a stock's price as the present value of all future dividends, discounted to the present using the equity cost of capital.
• Limitations of the dividend-discount model: The model relies on forecasts of future dividends—which are uncertain.
• Dividend growth rate: Difficulty forecasting a reasonable rate for a company's dividends. This estimate needs to be consistent with the company's earnings over time.
• Estimating dividends: Forecasting a company's dividend payout rate, earnings, and outstanding shares over time.

Total Payout and Free Cash Flow models

• Total payout model: Values a company according to the total amount of cash paid out as dividends and repurchases.
• Discounted free cash flow model: Values a company's enterprise value using all future cash flows to debt and equity holders.

Explore the essential concepts of stock valuation, including the impact of corporate leadership changes on stock prices and investment decisions. This quiz covers key methods like the dividend-discount model and the Law of One Price, providing a foundational understanding of how to evaluate stocks in the market.