Vaccine Efficacy in RCTs: Measures and Interpretation
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In a study examining the effectiveness of a new vaccine, what is the most appropriate measure of association to use, given the study design is a randomized controlled trial (RCT)?

  • Relative Risk (correct)
  • Prevalence Rate
  • Hazard Ratio
  • Odds Ratio

In an RCT evaluating a vaccine's efficacy against COVID-19, the incidence of COVID-19 in the vaccinated group is 8 out of 21,769, while in the placebo group, it is 162 out of 21,769. What is the calculated Relative Risk (RR)?

  • 0.00037
  • 0.049 (correct)
  • 0.95
  • 20.25

Based on a Relative Risk (RR) of 0.049 for a COVID-19 vaccine, how would you interpret the vaccine's effectiveness?

  • The vaccine is 4.9 times more effective than the placebo.
  • The vaccine decreases the risk of contracting COVID-19 by 95%. (correct)
  • The vaccine is not effective in preventing COVID-19.
  • The vaccine increases the risk of contracting COVID-19 by 4.9%.

If a study initially includes 43,538 participants equally randomized into a vaccine group and a placebo group, and the results show a significant reduction in disease incidence in the vaccine group, what is the primary reason for using such a large sample size?

<p>To account for potential dropouts and maintain statistical power. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of the presented study results, what is the most appropriate next step after calculating the relative risk and interpreting the vaccine's effectiveness?

<p>Conduct further subgroup analyses to identify potential differential effects. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If a study finds that a certain medication reduces the risk of a disease, yielding a Relative Risk (RR) of 0.4, what is the percentage decrease in risk associated with taking this medication?

<p>60% decrease in risk (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which study design involves random allocation of participants to different treatment groups?

<p>Randomized Controlled Trial (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A study investigating the effect of a new diet on heart disease risk reports a Relative Risk (RR) of 1.75. How should this be interpreted?

<p>There is a 75% increase in the risk of heart disease for individuals following the new diet. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a vaccine efficacy trial, the incidence of disease in the vaccinated group is 2% and in the placebo group is 8%. What is the Relative Risk (RR) of contracting the disease in the vaccinated group compared to the placebo group?

<p>0.25 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary distinction between efficacy and effectiveness in experimental studies?

<p>Efficacy measures the impact of an intervention in a research setting, while effectiveness measures its impact in routine practice. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A study examines the association between smoking and lung cancer. If the Relative Risk (RR) is 1, how should this be interpreted?

<p>Smoking has no association with the risk of lung cancer. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In which phase of clinical trials is the primary focus on assessing safety and dosage in a small group of healthy volunteers?

<p>Phase I (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the initial step when you want to find associations in clinical data?

<p>Identify an appropriate measure of association. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is a key characteristic of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) that distinguishes them from other study designs?

<p>Use of a control group receiving a placebo or standard treatment (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A researcher aims to study the impact of a new drug on blood pressure in hypertensive patients. They randomly assign patients to either the new drug or a placebo and monitor their blood pressure for 6 months. What type of study design is this?

<p>Randomized Controlled Trial (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A pharmaceutical company has developed a new drug and wants to evaluate its effectiveness in a real-world setting. They conduct a large-scale study involving multiple clinics and a diverse patient population. What type of evaluation are they primarily conducting?

<p>Effectiveness (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which phase of clinical trials involves post-marketing surveillance to monitor the long-term effects of a drug after it has been approved and is available for widespread use?

<p>Phase IV (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In an RCT evaluating a new exercise program for elderly adults, participants are randomly assigned to either the exercise group or a control group that receives standard care. What is the primary purpose of this randomization?

<p>To eliminate selection bias and ensure that groups are comparable at baseline (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of the provided COVID-19 vaccine trial data, what does a relative risk (RR) of 0.0555 indicate?

<p>The vaccinated group has a 94.45% lower risk of contracting COVID-19 compared to the placebo group. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given the provided data from the COVID-19 vaccine RCT, which conclusion is most accurate regarding the vaccine's effectiveness?

<p>The vaccine dramatically reduces the risk of contracting COVID-19 compared to the placebo, as indicated by the relative risk. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does an inverse association, as determined from the relative risk, suggest in the context of a vaccine trial?

<p>The exposed group has a lower risk of the outcome. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of the study design, what is the primary advantage of using an RCT to evaluate a vaccine's effectiveness?

<p>RCTs can definitively establish causality between the vaccine and the outcome. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a major limitation of relying solely on RCTs to inform healthcare decisions?

<p>RCTs often address a single question and may not reflect real-world clinical diversity. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose a new vaccine trial for disease X yields a relative risk of 2.0. How would you interpret this result?

<p>The vaccinated group has twice the risk of contracting disease X compared to the unvaccinated group. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A pharmaceutical company is deciding whether to fund an RCT for a new drug. Which of the following factors would most likely be a significant disadvantage they need to consider?

<p>RCTs can take years to complete and cost millions of dollars. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If an RCT evaluating a new therapy shows statistically significant benefits but is deemed unethical, what is the most appropriate course of action?

<p>Discontinue the trial and address the ethical issues. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a study, the risk of a disease in an exposed group is 5% and the risk in an unexposed group is 2%. What is the relative risk?

<p>2.5 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a study comparing a new treatment to a standard treatment, the risk of an adverse outcome in the new treatment group is 10%, while the risk in the standard treatment group is 15%. What is the risk difference?

<p>-5% (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If the relative risk of developing a certain disease for smokers compared to non-smokers is 4, how should this be interpreted?

<p>Smokers are 4 times more likely to develop the disease. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a clinical trial evaluating a new drug, the risk of a side effect is 5% in the treatment group and 1% in the placebo group. What is the absolute risk increase associated with the new drug?

<p>4% (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A study finds that a new diet reduces the risk of heart disease by 30% relative to the standard diet. If the baseline risk of heart disease in the standard diet group is 10%, what is the risk in the new diet group?

<p>7% (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Researchers are evaluating the effectiveness of a vaccine. In the unvaccinated group, the risk of infection is 8%. If the vaccine has a relative risk reduction of 50%, what is the risk of infection in the vaccinated group?

<p>4% (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a study comparing two different surgical techniques, the risk of complications with technique A is 6% and with technique B is 4%. Calculate the relative risk of complications when using technique A compared to technique B.

<p>1.5 (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A public health campaign aims to reduce the incidence of a disease. Before the campaign, the incidence was 5 per 1,000 people. After the campaign, it is 3 per 1,000 people. What is the absolute risk reduction due to the campaign?

<p>2 per 1,000 people (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a clinical trial assessing a new pain medication after surgery, what would be considered a primary endpoint?

<p>Time to first request for rescue analgesia. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best describes a surrogate endpoint?

<p>A measure of a laboratory value or physical sign that is thought to predict clinical benefit. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the experimental study flow, what is the purpose of randomization?

<p>To equally allocate participants to either the exposure or control group, minimizing selection bias. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the key difference between intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol (PP) analysis?

<p>ITT includes all randomized patients regardless of adherence, while PP includes only patients who fully adhere to the study protocol. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A researcher is conducting a clinical trial on a new drug to improve patient outcomes after cardiac surgery. Which of the following would be a relevant secondary endpoint to measure?

<p>The number of adverse events reported, such as infections or bleeding. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a study evaluating a new rehabilitation program for stroke patients, the primary endpoint is the improvement in motor function assessed using a standardized scale. Which of the following scenarios would be most appropriately analyzed using an intention-to-treat (ITT) approach?

<p>Analyzing all patients based on their originally assigned treatment group, regardless of whether they completed the program. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A clinical trial is designed to evaluate the effectiveness of a new drug in reducing the recurrence of migraines. The researchers plan to measure the number of migraine-free days per month as the primary endpoint. What is a potential limitation of using this endpoint?

<p>It does not capture the severity or duration of migraines. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A research team is conducting a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to investigate the effectiveness of a new exercise program on improving cardiovascular health. After randomization, some participants in the intervention group stopped participating due to personal reasons, and some participants in the control group started exercising independently outside of the study. How does the per-protocol (PP) analysis address this?

<p>By excluding participants who did not fully adhere to the assigned treatment from the analysis. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Calculate % increase in risk (RR > 1)

For RR > 1, percentage increase in risk is calculated as (RR - 1) x 100.

Calculate % decrease in risk (RR < 1)

For RR < 1, percentage decrease in risk is calculated as (1 - RR) x 100.

What is a 2x2 table?

A table used in epidemiology to analyze the relationship between two categorical variables.

Measure of association

A measure used to quantify the association between an exposure and an outcome.

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1:1 ratio

1:1 ratio of vaccine and placebo

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Experimental Studies

Studies where researchers intervene to test an exposure's effect on an outcome.

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Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT)

A study design where participants are randomly assigned to different intervention groups.

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Efficacy

The ability of an intervention to produce a desired effect under ideal conditions.

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Effectiveness

The ability of an intervention to produce a desired effect in real-world conditions.

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Phase I Clinical Trials

Early-stage trials to assess safety and dosage.

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Phase II Clinical Trials

Trials to evaluate efficacy and side effects.

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Phase III Clinical Trials

Large trials to confirm efficacy, monitor side effects, and compare to other treatments.

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Phase IV Clinical Trials

Post-marketing studies to gather more information on risks, benefits, and optimal use.

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Primary Endpoint

The main result you want to measure to see if the intervention worked.

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Secondary Endpoint

Additional results measured, but not the primary focus.

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Surrogate Endpoint

A measure that indirectly indicates the effect of a treatment on a more clinically meaningful outcome.

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Randomization

The process where study participants are assigned to different intervention groups (treatment/control) by chance.

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Control Group

The group receiving the standard treatment or a placebo.

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Follow-up

Following participants over time to observe outcomes.

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Intention-to-Treat Analysis

Analyzing data based on the original group assignment, regardless of what happened during the trial.

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Per-Protocol Analysis

Analyzing data only from participants who fully adhered to the study protocol.

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RCT (Randomized Controlled Trial)

Experimental study design where participants are randomly assigned to different interventions.

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Relative Risk (RR)

Risk in the exposed group divided by the risk in the unexposed group.

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Inverse association

When the exposed group has a lower risk of the outcome compared to unexposed group.

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Percent Decrease (% decrease)

Percentage reduction in risk of the outcome in the exposed group compared to the unexposed group.

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RCT Disadvantage: Expense and Time

Typically very expensive and time-consuming.

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RCT Disadvantage: Limited Scope

May only address a very specific question or patient population.

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RCT Disadvantage: Ethical concerns

RCTs are not always possible or safe to conduct.

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What is a 2x2 contingency table?

A table that displays the counts for combinations of two categorical variables, often exposure and outcome.

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What does relative risk (RR) < 1 indicate?

The proportional reduction in risk associated with an intervention compared to a control.

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How is Relative Risk (RR) calculated?

Calculated as: (Number of exposed w/ outcome) / (Total exposed) divided by (Number of unexposed w/ outcome) / (Total unexposed)

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What does '% decrease' represent in this context?

Indicates the percentage decrease in the risk of an outcome due to an intervention (vaccine).

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What is the placebo group?

The individuals who received the placebo in the study.

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Absolute Risk Difference

The risk in the exposed group that is attributable to the exposure, calculated as the difference between the risk in the exposed group and the risk in the unexposed group.

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Relative Risk Formula

Risk exposed / Risk unexposed = [a / (a + b)] / [c / (c + d)]

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Risk Difference Formula

Risk exposed – Risk unexposed = a/(a +b) – c/(c + d)

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Interpreting RR = 0.5

A relative risk of 0.5 indicates the new drug reduced the outcome by 50% relative to the unexposed group.

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Interpreting Risk Difference = -0.02

A risk difference of -0.02 (or -2 per 100) means the new drug reduced the outcome by 2 events per 100 people treated, compared to the unexposed.

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Comparing RR and Risk Difference

The drug reduces the outcome by the same proportion in both cases (50%), but the absolute impact (number of events prevented) is much larger in Drug 2.

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Purpose of a 2x2 Table

Helps analyze relationship between exposure and outcome, determining risk.

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Study Notes

  • PHRM 205 Clinical Epidemiology and Pharmaceutical Outcomes I, Lecture 9 covers Epidemiology: Experimental Studies.
  • UBC Vancouver is situated on the traditional, ancestral, and unceded territory of the Musqueam people.
  • Articles in CANVAS are in order of mention during the lecture.

Learning Objectives

  • Review classification of epidemiologic study designs (Lec 1).
  • Understand how study designs arise from types of epidemiology.
  • Introduction to experimental studies.
  • Distinguish between efficacy and effectiveness.
  • Understand phases of clinical trials.
  • Understand features of RCTs.
  • Study designs can be experimental or observational, randomized or non-randomized, descriptive or analytical, cohort or case control.

Experimental Studies

  • Evaluating a specific intervention (exposure), such as a new drug, device, or health care service.
  • Assigning study groups (exposed/intervention and unexposed/comparison using either placebo or usual treatment).
  • Creating a controlled environment where the only difference between study groups is exposure status.
  • Big picture is determining if exposure causes an outcome.

Exposure Assignment

  • Randomized assignment to study groups (exposed vs. unexposed) occurs by chance and is not under investigator control.
  • In non-randomized assignment, study group assignment is under investigator control, such as by hospital record or day of study recruitment.

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs)

  • Experimental study to assess the efficacy of an intervention in humans.
  • Efficacy is the ability to achieve a desired effect under highly controlled conditions.
  • Effectiveness shows whether interventions work in circumstances that reflect real-world practice.

Drug Regulatory Approval Process

  • Drug discovery typically takes ~5 years.
  • Pre-clinical studies take ~1.5 years.
  • Clinical trials take ~6 years that consists of phases 1, 2, and 3.
  • The approval process takes ~1.5 years.
  • Drug discovery starts with ~10,000 compounds, which whittles down to ~250 compounds in Pre-clinical.
  • Clinical trials take ~5 compounds to the FDA/EMA/Health Canada.
  • After all steps, 1 drug gains approval with a NOC after submission to Health Canada for review.

Phase I Clinical Trial

  • Main question is "Is the drug safe?".
  • Participants are healthy volunteers.
  • Design is:
    • Open label (not blinded).
    • Uncontrolled (no comparison group).
  • Goals are to identify side effects.
  • Determine tolerability and define pharmacokinetics ("what body does to drug") and pharmacodynamics ("what drug does to the body").

Phase II Clinical Trial

  • Question: "Does the drug work?".
  • Participants: patients (30-300 patients).
  • Can be:
    • Open label and uncontrolled (no comparison group).
    • Open label, Non-randomized controlled.
  • Goals:
    • Safety.
    • Efficacy.

Phase III Clinical Trial

  • Question: "Is the drug better than what we have?".
  • Patients: >300. Often in multiple sites/countries.
  • Design - Randomized controlled trial.
  • Goals are centered on safety and efficacy.

Experimental Study (Coffee for Postoperative Ileus)

  • Patients with malignant or benign disease undergoing elective open or laparoscopic colectomy were assigned randomly to receive either coffee (100mL three times daily) or water after the procedure.
  • Primary endpoint in this trial was to determine if postoperative coffee intake reduces the duration of postoperative ileus after elective colectomy.
  • Adult patients (aged at least 18 years) scheduled for elective open or laparoscopic colonic resection for malignant or benign diseases were eligible for inclusion in this study.
  • Those patients planning to undergo rectal resection, multivisceral resection, or those needing a stoma were excluded.
  • Additional exclusion criteria included known hypersensitivity or distaste for coffee, impaired mental state, and expected lack of compliance.
  • Intervention arm: coffee 3x100 mL at 8:00 am, 12:00 pm, and 4:00 pm beginning the morning after surgery.
  • Warm water arm: same schedule and volume as coffee, just warm water.
  • Primary endpoint: Time to first postoperative bowel movement (surrogate endpoint for duration of ileus).
  • Secondary endpoints: Time to tolerance of solid food, time to first flatus, need for additional laxatives, safety, and Length of hospital stay.
  • Coffee consumption after colectomy was associated with a reduced time to first bowel action.

Experimental Study Flow

  • Assess eligibility of prospective participants against inclusion/exclusion criteria.
    • Assess generalizability, or who the findings can apply to.
    • Identify participants with broad or restrictive criteria.
  • Randomization:
    • Allocation to study groups (exposed group vs. comparison group) by chance alone to optimize the equal distribution of measured and unmeasured characteristics between study groups.
    • Study assignments are unknown to researchers.
  • Concealment of allocation occurs to protect the randomization before patients are entered into a trial.
    • Without it, bias is introduced, and certain patients are more likely to enter into one study group over another, thereby negating any benefits that randomization would have given the group.

Blinding Definition

  • Blinding is masking of the allocation after randomization of patients.
  • Not always feasible in all RCTs (e.g., cannot blind in RCT of coffee and ileus) but is important in RCTs involving comparison to placebo.
  • Single-blinded studies involve only the patient not knowing group assignments.
  • Double-blinded studies involve the patient and researcher not knowing to which study group patients are assigned.
  • There could be errors in studies that are not blinded.

Exposure Definition

  • A need to define all aspects of any study treatment so that it is uniform.
  • Control:
    • Placebo is best to define efficacy of study therapy but may not be ethical/practical/feasible.
    • Active control is the current standard.

Outcome

  • Outcome is based on what researchers want to achieve with the new intervention.
  • Primary endpoint
  • Secondary, additional endpoints

Data Analysis

  • Intention to treat analysis is where all randomized patients are included in the final data analysis.
  • Per protocol analysis is where only patients who complete the trial according to protocol are analyzed.

Measure of Association for RCT

  • Defined as Relative Risk = risk of outcome among exposed/risk of outcome among unexposed = a/(a + b) / c/(c + d).
    • If RR > 1, this indicates an association meaning exposed group has higher risk of outcome than unexposed group.
    • If RR = 1, this indicates no association.
    • If RR < 1, this indicates an inverse association meaning exposed group has lower risk of outcome than unexposed group.
  • Percent increase is defined as (RR-1)*100.
  • Percent decrease is defined as (1-RR)*100.
  • Disadvantages of RCTs:
    • Expensive.
      • Can cost millions of dollars.
    • Time consuming.
      • Can take years.
    • Only answer one question.
    • Not applicable to most patients.
    • Impractical, or unethical.
    • Hard to get funding.
    • Complex. RR Definition
  • (Risk difference = risk exposed – risk unexposed) = a/(a+b) – c/(c + d):
    • Risk in the exposed group that is attributable to the exposure.

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Description

Explore appropriate measures of association, such as Relative Risk (RR), in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating vaccine efficacy. Learn how to interpret RR values and understand the importance of large sample sizes in vaccine studies for reliable results. Discuss the crucial next steps after calculating relative risk.

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