US Immigration: Trends and Demographics

• In 2022, immigrants accounted for 13.9% of the U.S. population, which is approximately 46 million people.
• The top countries of origin for immigrants are Mexico (23%), India (6%), China (5%), and the Philippines (4%).
• The U.S. had an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in 2022.
• Visa overstays are a considerable factor in the undocumented population, alongside border crossings.
• CBP apprehended approximately 2.5 million people at the U.S.-Mexico border in FY 2023.
• More Central American migrants are seeking asylum, including many unaccompanied minors.
• By the end of FY 2023, nearly 2.8 million immigration cases were awaiting resolution in immigration courts.
• In FY 2022, the U.S. granted over 1 million legal permanent residencies primarily through family reunification.
• Nonimmigrant visas in the H1B (high-skilled) and H2A (agriculture) categories are provided for work, education, and temporary stays.
• Immigration was seen as the top issue facing America by 28% of Americans as of February 2024.
• A Pew Research survey indicated support from 60% of Americans for allowing undocumented immigrants to stay and 36% for providing citizenship opportunities.
• The 1986 amnesty under President Reagan, the 1990 legal immigration expansion under Bush, and the 2013 immigration overhaul attempt under Obama were previous reform efforts.
• DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) was pushed by Obama, who also sought reforms for unaccompanied minors.
• Trump pursued stricter border enforcement via the border wall, zero-tolerance policies leading to family separations, and travel bans.
• Efforts to end DACA and reduce refugee admissions were also undertaken by the Trump administration.
• Biden aims to restore DACA, address asylum seekers, and promote a more humane approach to border enforcement to reverse Trump-era policies.
• Pandemic-related border restrictions ending and increased migration have made reform more difficult.

USMCA Overview

• The USMCA took effect on July 1, 2020.
• The USMCA replaced NAFTA to create a beneficial trade agreement for North American workers, farmers, ranchers, and businesses.
• USMCA's main goal is improved rules of origin for items like automobiles and trucks.
• The USMCA aims to discipline on currency manipulation.
• USMCA supports American workers, farmers, and agribusinesses.
• The USMCA enhances intellectual property protection and opportunities for U.S. services.
• New provisions and chapters for Digital Trade, Anticorruption, and Good Regulatory Practices, were established, including ones for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs).

Trade & Investment

• $1.8 trillion was the total trade in 2022 for combined U.S. goods and services with USMCA
• Exports: $789.7 billion.
• Imports: $974.3 billion.
• The Trade Deficit was estimated at: $184.6 billion.
• The goods exports were $680.8 billion in 2022.
• There was a 16.0% increase ($94.1 billion) from 2021, and 34% from 2012.
• $891.3 billion were attributed to goods imports in 2022.
• The increase was 20.5% ($151.5 billion) from 2021, and 48% from 2012.
• The trade Deficit: was $210.6 billion in 2022 (a 37.5% increase from 2021).
• Services Exports were $109.0 billion in 2022.
• An increase of 23.6% ($21 billion) relative to 2021 and 17% relative to 2012.
• Services Imports were $83.0 billion in 2022.
• An increase of 27.0% ($17.6 billion) from 2021, and 66% from 2012.
• The U.S. had a services trade surplus of $26.0 billion with USMCA in 2022 marking a 14.0% increase from 2021.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

• The U.S. FDI in USMCA was estimated at $569.0 billion in 2022, which is a 9.5% increase from 2021.
• Key sectors included Manufacturing, Nonbank Holding Companies, and Finance and Insurance.
• The FDI from USMCA to the U.S. was $623.1 billion in 2022 an 8.0% increase since 2021.
• Key sectors: Finance and Insurance, Manufacturing, and Depository institutions.

Shift in U.S. Imports

• Mexico is now the top importer of goods to the US, surpassing China.
• Rebounding North American auto production after COVID-19 and the end of the chip shortage boosted Mexico's auto production.
• Mexico's auto production has greatly increased.
• Incentives were created for companies to avoid President Donald Trump's tariffs (18% average) by shifting final assembly to Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand).
• Small-value shipments (<$800) are not counted in U.S. trade data due to the de minimis exception, leading to Chinese imports being undercounted.

U.S.-China Trade Relationship

• Trump's tariffs are under review by the Biden administration, but tariffs may increase on strategic goods such as electric vehicles.
• A 60% tariff on imports from China by Trump would accelerate the trend of finding alternative assembly locations.
• True de-risking isn't just about tariffs but includes establishing alternative sources for key components (e.g., Chinese components in solar panels and iPhones sourced from India).

China's Trade Evolution

• Overall global exports from China have grown despite tariffs, in particular for electric vehicles (EVs) and green goods.
• Exports remain vital despite China's domestic economic issues.

Impact on North American Economies

• Mexico's export increase is from the growing North American auto industry and its evolution from an oil exporter to an auto exporter.
• The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and USMCA have benefited Mexico.
• Mexico is becoming more important to the United States for energy and auto parts.
• Mexico's proximity to the U.S., its integration with regional supply chains, and U.S. Inflation Reduction Act EV subsidies promote trade between the two countries.
• However, India and Southeast Asia are more likely to gain from tariffs placed on consumer electronics and goods than Mexico.

Future Considerations

• The growing trade deficit the U.S. has with Mexico and possible future trade regulations (such as a 10% tariff) will have an impact on dynamics.
• Mexico may face new trade tensions or tariffs if Trump is re-elected, irrespective of NAFTA/USMCA.

Gerardo Galvan's Early Life & Career

• Gerardo Galvan grew up in Monterrey, Mexico, and he studied business at the University of Monterrey.
• He started working for Coca-Cola in 1986, overseeing sales and marketing and spent a decade in various roles before moving to Arca Continental in 1997 to bottle and distribute Topo Chico.

Topo Chico's Journey

• Topo Chico is a mineral water from Monterrey, Mexico with a legendary Aztec origin and became a staple in northern Mexico before being introduced to the U.S.
• Topo Chico was only available in select U.S. markets during the 1980s; with its distribution primarily focused on Hispanic grocery stores.
• With a small marketing budget Gerardo's team reached consumers directly through events and getting Topo Chico stocked in more stores.

Rise in Popularity

• Sparkling water brand Topo Chico became increasingly popular in Texas among millennials and was endorsed by musicians and celebrities.
• Topo Chico’s extra-fizzy bubbles made it a refreshing alternative to sugary drinks.
• By 2015, Topo Chico sales surged, especially in Texas which increased sales to $79.5 million by 26%.

Acquisition by Coca-Cola

• In 2020, Coca-Cola acquired Topo Chico from Arca Continental, adding it to their Venturing & Emerging Brands (VEB) unit for fast-growing labels.
• Gerardo became general manager for Topo Chico at Coca-Cola North America after the acquisition.

Personal Achievements

• Gerardo enrolled in the Executive MBA Americas program at Cornell University to accomplish his goal of getting an MBA.
• Gerardo considers Topo Chico as limitless and expects its continued growth.

Overview

• Emilio attended the North Capital Forum in Mexico City, a gathering by the U.S.-Mexico Foundation, focused on the future of North America as a competitive trading bloc.
• Cadena reflected on the forum, stressing the importance of strengthening competitiveness and unity in North America with the "North American Way" of collaboration.

Main Components of the "North American Way"

• Instead of seeing competitiveness as a struggle against Asia, Cadena suggests focusing on producing high-quality, price-accessible goods and services collaboratively, while being environmentally conscious is best.
• The motive is to benefit people in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico and not just outcompete geographically. Manufacturing sectors can combine parts and components across borders to create high-end products such as appliances, vehicles, and defense industry materials.
• Integration in manufacturing improves conditions for workers and increases profits which has developed trust and a common goal among U.S., Mexican, and Canadian manufacturing teams.
• Respecting each country's comparative advantages and working together seamlessly is the essence of the North American Way.
• Despite the benefits, people still don't understand how important further integration is especially shown through food manufacturing and leisure.
• Though Mexico has ties to Latin America, it heavily relies economically and socially on the U.S., making U.S.-Mexico ties very important.
• Integration requires that the U.S. should prioritize North America in its foreign policy agenda.
• Canada needs to become more involved in trilateral collaboration.
• Mexico needs to be more open about its dedication to integration in certain areas.
• The North American Way is a natural result of people from different countries working together, not a government policy, it's evident via high-tech innovation, brewing, and temporary worker programs.
• Civil society must be more involved when addressing shared issues beyond government cooperation.
• Stakeholders located in North America must embrace to this model of integration to advance the global economy.

Emilio Cadena's Background

• Emilio Cadena is the President & CEO of Grupo Prodensa as well as Chairman of the U.S.-Mexico consulting group, and co-chairs the Border Transformation Working Group of the U.S.-Mexico CEO Dialogue.
• Cadena emphasized that fostering North American integration is important to grow collaboration between government, businesses, and civil society.

Background

• Mexican Minister of Culture Alejandra Frausto and NEA Chair Maria Rosario Jackson convened in September 2022 to explore the potential for a cultural exchange.
• Frausto introduced the Semilleros program, a program bringing 300 creative youth groups together to highlight collective artistic ways.

Cultural Exchange Initiative

• Mexico's Cervantino Festival chose the U.S. as the country of honor in 2023 and called for visual, literary, and performing artists representing the nation at the festival.
• Frausto and Jackson decided to highlight the relationship between youth generations.
• The program's mission is to focus on cultural richness of communities and promote peace in safe youth spaces while encouraging young people to think critically.

Benefits of International Exchange

• International exchange breaks down stereotypes promoting tolerance while encouraging respect for different cultures.
• Furthermore, international youth exhanges provides an increased knowledge of the world's interconnectedness along with global issues.

Participants

• Semillero Creativo de Danza Urbana de Empalme (Mexico) formed in 2019 by youth interested in reggaeton and K-Pop promotes community leadership while helping young people express themselves.
• Dancing Grounds (USA) is based in New Orleans whose Dance for Social Change program empowers youth to use dance to catalyze positive social change in their community.

Summer Intensive in New Orleans (August 2023)

• Semillero Creativo de Danza Urbana de Empalme attended a week participating in Dance for Social Change intensive.
• It involved classes with professional guest artists, choreography sessions, and crafting their movement.
• A NOLA Youth Town Hall concluded the week where young people talked about New Orleans youth while a performance of Dance for Social Change Teen Company and Semillero Creativo took place.

Collaborative Choreography (August - October 2023)

• American and Mexican choreographers collaborated via Zoom to prepare a joint Cervantino Festival performance.
• The groups reunited in October 2023 after Dancing Grounds traveled to Mexico City to refine their dance piece together.
• Emotional Cervantino Festival performance in Guanajuato showcased cultural exchange and mutual cooperation.
• The exchange revealed music's and dance's ability to unite cultures, demonstrating the healing power of art.
• Youth active in cultural exchanges contributes to a more interconnected world.