Unit Root Testing in Finance
41 Questions
0 Views

Choose a study mode

Play Quiz
Study Flashcards
Spaced Repetition
Chat to lesson

Podcast

Play an AI-generated podcast conversation about this lesson

Questions and Answers

What can happen if two variables are trending over time and a regression of one on the other is performed?

  • The regression will always have a low R2 if the variables are unrelated
  • The regression will not be affected by the trending variables
  • The regression will not be valid due to non-stationarity
  • The regression could have a high R2 even if the two variables are totally unrelated (correct)
  • What happens to the persistence of shocks for nonstationary series?

  • The persistence of shocks will be zero
  • The persistence of shocks will be infinite (correct)
  • The persistence of shocks will decrease over time
  • The persistence of shocks will converge to a constant value
  • Which model characterizes non-stationarity as a random walk with drift?

  • $y_t = \mu + y_{t-1} + u_t$ (correct)
  • $y_t = \alpha + \beta t + u_t$
  • $y_t = \alpha + t + u_t$
  • $y_t = \mu + y_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t$
  • What happens to the standard assumptions for asymptotic analysis if the variables in a regression model are not stationary?

    <p>The standard assumptions for asymptotic analysis will not be valid</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the model $y_t = \mu + \phi y_{t-1} + u_t$, what does it mean if $\phi > 1$?

    <p>Shocks to the system are not only persistent through time, they are propagated so that a given shock will have an increasingly large influence.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the impact of shocks in an AR(1) process with no drift, $y_t = \phi y_{t-1} + u_t$?

    <p>Given shocks become more influential as time goes on.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the correct treatment for inducing stationarity in a trend-stationary series?

    <p>Detrending</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is required to induce stationarity in a stochastic non-stationary series?

    <p>&quot;Differencing once&quot;</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What structure is introduced into the errors if a trend-stationary series is differenced once?

    <p>MA(1) structure</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens if we try to detrend a series which has stochastic trend?

    <p>We will not remove the non-stationarity.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does it mean if a non-stationary series needs to be differenced d times before it becomes stationary?

    <p>It is said to be integrated of order d.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does an I(0) series indicate?

    <p>A stationary series</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What characteristic differentiates an I(2) series from an I(0) or I(1) series?

    <p>An I(2) series contains two unit roots and requires differencing twice to induce stationarity.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What did Dickey and Fuller's test aim to test for in time series data?

    <p>The presence of a unit root in the data.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the null hypothesis being tested in Dickey and Fuller's test?

    <p>$\phi = 1$ in $y_t = \phi y_{t-1} + u_t$</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the impact of non-stationarity on regression analysis?

    <p>It can lead to high R2 even if the variables are unrelated</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What characterizes non-stationarity as a random walk with drift?

    <p>$y_t = \mu + y_{t-1} + u_t$</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens to the standard assumptions for asymptotic analysis if the variables in a regression model are not stationary?

    <p>The usual t-ratios will not follow a t-distribution</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the impact of $ ext{AR}(1)$ process with no drift, $y_t = ext{ϕ} y_{t-1} + u_t$?

    <p>Shocks become more influential as time goes on for $ ext{ϕ} &gt; 1$</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What characteristic differentiates an $I(2)$ series from an $I(0)$ or $I(1)$ series?

    <p>An $I(2)$ series contains two unit roots and requires differencing twice to induce stationarity</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does it mean if a non-stationary series needs to be differenced $d$ times before it becomes stationary?

    <p>It is said to be integrated of order $d$, denoted as $I(d)$</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens if we try to detrend a series which has a stochastic trend?

    <p>The non-stationarity will not be removed</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What structure is introduced into the errors if a trend-stationary series is differenced once?

    <p>$MA(1)$ structure</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What did Dickey and Fuller's test aim to test for in time series data?

    <p>The presence of a unit root in the autoregressive model</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which model characterizes non-stationarity as a random walk with drift?

    <p>$y_t = ext{μ} + ext{ϕ}y_{t-1} + u_t$</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is required to induce stationarity in a stochastic non-stationary series?

    <p>Differencing once</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Non-stationary series can strongly influence its behavior and properties - e.g. persistence of shocks will be infinite for ______ series

    <p>nonstationary</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The random walk model with drift: $y_t = \mu + y_{t-1} + u_t$ and the deterministic trend process: $y_t = \alpha + \beta t + u_t$ are used to characterize ______

    <p>non-stationarity</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If two variables are trending over time, a regression of one on the other could have a high R2 even if the two are totally unrelated. This is known as a ______ regression

    <p>spurious</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the model $y_t = \mu + \phi y_{t-1} + u_t$, if $\phi > 1$, it characterizes non-stationarity as a ______ with drift

    <p>random walk</p> Signup and view all the answers

    An I(0) series is a ______ series

    <p>stationary</p> Signup and view all the answers

    An I(1) series contains one unit root, e.g. yt = yt-1 + ut

    <p>[blank]</p> Signup and view all the answers

    An I(2) series contains two unit roots and so would require differencing twice to induce stationarity. I(1) and I(2) series can wander a long way from their mean value and cross this mean value ______.

    <p>rarely</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The general case of an AR(1) with no drift: yt = yt-1 + ut can be written as: ______ = (yt-2 + ut-1) + ut

    <p>yt</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If a non-stationary series, yt must be differenced d times before it becomes stationary, then it is said to be integrated of order ______. We write yt I(d).

    <p>d</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The two will require different treatments to induce stationarity. The second case is known as deterministic non-stationarity and what is required is ______.

    <p>detrending</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The early and pioneering work on testing for a unit root in time series was done by Dickey and Fuller (Dickey and Fuller 1979, Fuller 1976). The basic objective of the test is to test the null hypothesis that  =1 in: yt = yt-1 + ut against the one-sided alternative  ______.

    <p>&gt; 1</p> Signup and view all the answers

    We say that we have induced stationarity by “differencing ______”

    <p>once</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If we take the model yt = yt-1 + ut and subtract yt-1 from both sides, we get: yt = ______ + ut

    <p>μ</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The first case is known as stochastic non-stationarity. If we let yt = yt - yt-1 and L yt = yt-1 so (1-L) yt = yt - L yt, then we can write yt - yt-1 =  + ut as: yt = ______ + ut

    <p>μ</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The explosive case is ignored and we use  = 1 to characterize the non-stationarity because –  > 1 does not describe many data series in economics and finance. –  > 1 has an intuitively unappealing property: shocks to the system are not only persistent through time, they are propagated so that a given shock will have an increasingly large ______.

    <p>influence</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Use Quizgecko on...
    Browser
    Browser