Understanding the Nature of Power in Global Relations

The Nature of Power

• Power is defined as the resources a country uses to achieve its policies, even against international opposition.
• Unlike energy, power lacks standard measurement.
• Acquiring power can lead to lost alliances and insecurity.
• Estimating power is easier when comparing countries with clear imbalances.
• Quantifying non-quantifiable elements of power remains challenging.
• Power experiences fluctuations due to economic, resource, and population shifts.
• The balance of power is shifting via coercive means declining, while the persuasive approach rises.
• Conflict is not becoming less common and can serve purposes that diplomacy cannot.
• Possessing assets and the ability/inclination to use them grants objective power.
• Subjective power relies on other actors' perceptions of a country's current or potential power.
• Erroneous assessments of a country's power can provoke conflicts, as seen with Germany's misjudgment of US power in 1917.
• Comparative power is used to gauge capabilities.
• In zero-sum scenarios, one nation's gain equals another's loss.
• Contrarily, a non-zero sum scenario means one nation can gain without diminishing others.
• Absolute power exists independently and can be used if needed.
• Situational power is context-dependent and often falls short of a country's total capabilities.
• Power is multifaceted, reinforced by various elements.

Elements of Power: The National Core

• National geography, mainly location, provides access to oceans for trade and naval strength.
• Natural boundaries, such as those protecting England and the US, are valuable.
• Topography, such as Switzerland's mountains, can enhance security or hinder interaction.
• Size offers a strategic advantage, like Russia's ability to trade space for time.
• Latitude influences climate and agriculture, with many poor countries near the equator.
• Access to freshwater is a growing safeguard and valuable resource.
• Abundant natural resources boost self-sufficiency, and may make a nation vulnerable to unwanted invasion by stronger resource profiles.
• Dependence on foreign resources reduces power.
• Oil underscores US's resource dependency and economic vulnerability to instability, and trade deficits.
• China, Japan, Russia, US, and South Korea lead in steel production.
• Self-sufficiency in agriculture enhances power.
• Excessive reliance on agriculture can hinder overall economic power.
• Control of strategic waterways is also a key asset.

People and National Power

• A large population is a key for military and workforce, but resource balance is vital.
• The most productive age is between the ages of 15-64.
• Too many young or old negatively affect production.
• Lack of youth can lead to work force decline, except for in Israel.
• Struggling education systems and brain drain diminish a country's power.
• Countries that enable sexism limit their population's power.
• A healthy and productive population is paramount.
• Morale boosts population's ability to persevere through hardship.
• Strong administrations are determined the the quality of a its government.
• Effective administrative competence fully uses power and potential.

The Military

• Advanced tech like R&D spending help countries govern and blow up populations.
• Transportation supports troop movement and raw resource logistics.
• Measuring effectiveness requires cost-benefit analysis.
• Calculating success involves assessing goal attainment, known as expected utility of war.
• The military is most effective used in legitimate national interest with public and leader support.
• Military objectives instead of political or democracy, should be obtained early to be effective.
• Diplomatic and military reputations help to deter threats and make allies respectively.
• Military power is costly to use for internal and external affairs.
• Democracies have more difficulty using military as the public shifts their opinion towards war.

The Nature of Diplomacy

• Diplomacy uses communication to signal and negotiate.
• Agreements are needed.
• Effective diplomacy is realistic and understanding of your enemy.
• Ground work and flexibility should be applied.

Levels of Escalation

• Start at diplomatic action and background.
• Increase with overt or covert threats/actions.
• Limited demonstrations with smaller actions and military.
• End with direct action/war.

Losing Against Smaller Enemies

• Lack of resources or support is a drain.
• Lack of public support also diminishes success.

Why is Power Becoming Less Important

• Globalism is less important than economy.
• Nuclear deterrence is being utilized more often.
• Public opinion makes diplomacy a more attractive option.

Diplomacy Roles:

• Report information.
• Negotiate for common ground.
• Represent country to prevent misconception.
• Negotiate, protect, and serve its citizens.

The Diplomatic Environment:

• Hostile: Likely for war.
• Adversarial: Unlikely for war.
• Coalition: Group of actors opposed to others
• Mediation: Actor not involved that is helping.

Two Level-Game Theory:

• Diplomacy acceptable at abroad and at home.

Evolution of Diplomacy

• Adhoc usage that eventually leads to a direct predecessor.
• Diplomacy made foreign affairs and policy dominated by the minister.
• Traits of old diplomacy are elitist and secret.
• WW1 began modern diplomacy with rise of new states and powers.

Multilateral Diplomacy

• Was increased by international concerns.
• Seen as attractive by smaller countries for rise of powers.

Democratized Diplomacy

• Rise of legislatures.
• Rise of public diplomacy.

Open and Leader Diplomacy

• Improves democracy but difficult in terms of negotiation.

Summit Diplomacy

• Meetings between leaders.
• More breakthroughs.

Propaganda

• Influenced by modern tech, and communication.
• Often known as disinformation.

Signaling

• Sending a message to another government.
• Broken or honored relations.

Action Effectiveness:

• Be realistic and respectful.

Retreat:

Leave yourself and your opponent an out.

Direct and Indirect

• Can create misunderstandings that alter action.

High and Low Level

• Lower can test what is out to be done.

Coercion

• Threaten them to do what needs to be done.

Economics

• Change by actions.
• Forms and conditions can be created.

Economic Sanctions

• Cuba, North Korea, China, and Iraq have all been sanctioned economically.
• Often hard to implement.

Reward

• Aid and trade given for better relations.

Precise

• Helping avoid misunderstandings and indicates commitment.

Vague

• To be able to retreat from certain situations.

Word or Deed

• Used for signaling and negotiation

Dispute

• Can invoke power and the stakes of the situation.

Power

• Power is measured to determine people and states.