Understanding Public Opinion and Polling

Public Opinion

• Encompasses the collective attitudes of citizens on a specific issue or question.
• Distribution can be normal (balanced), bimodal (polarized), or skewed (leaning heavily to one side).

Public Opinion and Models of Democracy

• Elitism suggests public opinion has minimal influence.
• Pluralism posits that public opinion matters indirectly through group affiliation.
• Majoritarianism emphasizes public opinion as the most significant factor.

Scientific Polling

• Involves surveying individuals on specific issues.
• Originated in the 1940s with the use of telephones for random sampling.
• Modern polls experienced accuracy issues in the 2016 election due to factors like "Shy-Trumpers" and decreased phone response rates.
• The margin of error is typically around 3-4%.

Political Socialization

• Refers to the process by which people acquire their political beliefs.
• Family is the primary agent of early socialization.
• Social media increasingly impacts socialization, exposing individuals to diverse opinions.
• The "Transmission model" suggests party identification is passed down from parents to children.
• Peers, churches, and schools also influence political socialization.
• The Primary Principle states that what is learned first is best.
• The Structuring Principle says that what is learned first structures later learning.

Social Groups and Political Values

• Issue Framing: Politicians define an issue differently when presenting it to different people.
• Education: Those with higher education tend to value freedom and believe they are capable of making their own decisions.
• Income: Wealthier individuals tend to oppose taxes, while lower-income individuals often desire employment and income guarantees.
• Region: The "Solid South" has been largely Republican since the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
• Religion: The "God Gap" highlights that individuals with a literal interpretation of the Bible are more likely to lean Republican and vote.
• Gender: Women often favor equality and pro-choice stances.
• Ethnicity: Non-white individuals tend to lean Democratic, although Trump gained some minority votes.

Values and Ideology

• Liberals prioritize freedom over order and equality over economic freedom, and are associated with change.
• Conservatives prioritize order over freedom and economic freedom over equality, and are associated with tradition.
• Self-interest is a major factor, with individuals often prioritizing personal benefits.
• Most people have a general understanding of many political issues but lack in-depth knowledge.
• Opinion Schemas: Knowledge and beliefs affect how a person views a particular subject.
• People are often pragmatically liberal (trying to fix problems) but philosophically conservative (sticking to the way things already are).

Media Literacy

• Confirmation Bias: Seeking information that confirms existing beliefs.
• Coverage Bias: The extent to which issues are reported/discussed in the media.
• Concision Bias: People prefer things to be brief, so it doesn’t cover all the details.
• Authority Bias: People are more likely to trust information if it comes from an authority.
• Availability Bias: As an idea spread, it becomes more accepted.
• Declinism: Romanticizes the past and thinks things are worse now.
• Framing Effect: How an idea is presented to us.
• Group Think: The desire to fit in an minimize conflict..
• False Consensus: Thinking an idea is more popular than it is.
• Halo Effect: Your overall impression of a person.
• Dunning-kruger Effect: The less you know, the more confident you are.

Newspapers

• Strengths: Provide lots of information, and have a separate news and opinion section.
• Weaknesses: Declining readership and opinion editorials are biased.

News Magazines

• Strengths: Provide even more information than newspapers and are fact-checked.
• Weaknesses: Declining readership and must please advertisers.

Talk Radio

• Historically required a balance of Democratic and Republican opinions under the Fairness Doctrine.
• It has become increasingly polarized with figures like Rush Limbaugh and Michael Savage.

TV News

• Fox News: Strictly started to be a conservative network because every other news station leaned left
• Importance: News stations now "Give the people what they want to hear” → confirmation bias
• Infotainment is a mix of information and entertainment through TV personalities.
• "Soft news" is a more approachable, less serious form of news.

Donald Trump's Impact on Media

• Utilized social media to communicate directly with the public.
• Popularized the term "Fake News" to discredit unfavorable coverage.

Internet News

• Characterized by "Echo chambers" and confirmation bias.
• Algorithms personalize content based on user interaction.
• Focuses on newsworthiness, often prioritizing sensational or attention-grabbing stories.

Social Media

• A primary news source for many Americans.
• Notable platforms include Facebook.
• Subject to debates over censorship and content moderation.
• Strengths: Accessible, has little outside control, allows infinite information and has independent media ownership.
• Weaknesses: Not fact-checked, consists a lot of negative (and false) information, and false stories spread faster.

Mass Media Vocabulary

• Mass media: Includes print, broadcast, internet, and social media.
• Attentive policy elites: People who follow news and specific policies.
• Two-step flow of communication: Policy elites gather information and inform their followers, mobilizing them to apply pressure to the government.
• Newsworthiness: The degree in which a news story is important enough to be covered in media.
• Federal Communication Commission (FCC): Regulates international communications.
• Net neutrality: There shall be no restrictions on info online.
• Gatekeepers: Control the flow of news and information.
• Horse race journalism: Election coverage focusing on which candidate is leading.
• Media events: Situations that are newsworthy enough for mass media coverage.
• TV hypothesis: Claims TV is to blame for the low-level citizen knowledge on public affairs.
• Soft news: Entertainment that often includes some political affairs.
• Political agenda: List of issues needing government attention.
• Watchdog journalism: Scrutinizes public and businesses institution and calls people out for their misconduct.

Political Participation

• Actions taken by citizens to influence government policies.
• Majoritarian and pluralist democracies expect citizen involvement.
• Encompasses activities like forming interest groups, discussing politics, contacting officials, and campaigning.
• Direct Action is an unconventional participation that involves assembling crowds to confront the government and make demands.

Unconventional Participation

• "High initiative" activities such as rioting, threats, propaganda, assassination, and bombing.
• Terrorism is not political participation because it aims to destroy the government rather than influence it.

Conventional Participation

• "Low initiative" activities like voting.
• Includes activities such as signing petitions, attending conventions, and sending emails or letters.

Effectiveness of Unconventional Participation

• Viewed negatively but can be effective.
• Historical examples include the Boston Tea Party, Civil Rights Movement, and Women's Suffrage Movement.
• Minorities often use unconventional participation due to limited access to conventional means.

American Political Participation

• Voter turnout in the U.S. is low compared to other countries.
• Reasons for not voting include being uninformed, feeling that votes don't matter, inconvenience, and disinterest in candidates.

Primaries and Caucuses

• Primary elections narrow down candidates within parties.
• Caucuses are closed meetings where party members decide on policies and select candidates.
• Closed primaries require voters to be registered with a specific party to participate.

Types of "Elections"

• Direct Primaries:
  • Closed: Voters must be registered with a specific party.
  • Open: Voters do not need to be registered with a specific party.
  • Wide open.
• Initiative: Citizens can propose laws through petitions and ballot measures.
• Recall: Citizens can petition to remove an elected official before their term ends.
• Straight: Voting for only one party.
• Split: Voting for people from diff parties
• Coattail: People in one party get popular if there is a popular presidential candidate
• Referendum: When people vote on an issue, not a person.

Suffrage

• Expansion of suffrage in the U.S.
• 15th Amendment: Supposedly gave Black men the right to vote but was circumvented by literacy tests and poll taxes.
• Voters Rights Act 1964: Guaranteed black people the right to vote.
• 19th Amendment: Gave women the right to vote (1920).
• 26th Amendment: Lowered voting age from 21 to 18.

Main Purpose of Political Parties

• WIN ELECTIONS
• This dynamic can incentivize politicians to lie.

Other Purposes of Political Parties

• Nominating Candidates: Done through pRiMarIeS.
• Structuring Voting Choice: Offering clear platforms.
• Proposing Alternate Government Programs: Acting as a watchdog over the party in power.
• Coordinating Actions of Government Officials: Facilitating cooperation among party members.
• Party platform: Statement of policies of a national political party.

3rd Parties

• Rarely win elections but can influence them.
• Act as "safety valves" for discontent with major party candidates.
• Can act as "Spoilers" by taking votes from major party candidates.
• Ross Perot:
  • Won 19% of vote.
  • His big thing was national debt!
  • Didn’t really affect election results because he won an equal amount of republican/democrat votes

Party vs. Interest group's

• Parties NOMINATE LEADERS.

Critical Elections

• Elections that change which political party dominates.
• Electoral realignment is the change in voting patterns that occurs after a critical election.
• Electoral dealignment is the lessening of importance of political parties.