Understanding Probability: Trials, Outcomes and Events
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Questions and Answers

A researcher performs an experiment involving drawing marbles from a bag. Which scenario represents an 'event' in the context of probability?

  • The researcher draws three marbles and observes that exactly two of them are blue (correct)
  • The researcher calculates the total number of marbles in the bag before the experiment begins.
  • The researcher records the color of each marble drawn and then replaces it.
  • The researcher ensures that the marbles are well-mixed inside the bag.

In a game with a spinner divided into equal sections numbered 1 through 20, what outcome would be considered a 'simple event'?

  • Spinning the spinner five times and recording each result.
  • Spinning the spinner and landing on the number 13. (correct)
  • Spinning the spinner and landing on an even number.
  • Spinning the spinner until a prime number is obtained.

A bag contains 5 red balls, 3 blue balls, and 2 green balls. If a ball is drawn at random, what is the probability of NOT drawing a blue ball?

  • $1/10$
  • $7/10$ (correct)
  • $3/10$
  • $1/2$

A researcher wants to determine the probability of drawing a queen from a standard 52-card deck. Given this scenario, which statement accurately describes how this probability should be calculated?

<p>Divide the number of queens (4) by the total number of cards (52). (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A six-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a number that is either even or less than 3?

<p>$2/3$ (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A bag contains 3 green balls and 4 yellow balls. What is the probability of drawing two green balls in a row, without replacing the first ball?

<p>3/14 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A lottery machine picks five digits, each from 0 to 9. What is the probability that the lottery number will be a palindrome (reads the same forwards and backward)?

<p>1/100 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If the probability of event A is $p$, what is the probability of its complementary event, denoted as A'?

<p>$1 - p$ (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A standard six-sided die is rolled twice. What is the probability that the first roll is a 2 and the second roll is greater than 4?

<p>1/12 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A card is drawn at random from a standard deck of 52 cards. Define event A as drawing a heart, and event B as drawing a king. If A and B are complementary, what the probability of A not occurring?

<p>3/4 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

What is a Trial?

A single instance of a well-defined, repeatable procedure or test.

What is an Outcome?

The result of a trial, such as getting heads on a coin flip.

What is an Event?

The outcome of one or more trials.

What is Probability?

The measure of how likely an event is to occur, ranging from 0 to 1.

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What is a Simple Event?

An event with only one outcome.

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Compound Event

An event with more than one outcome. Examples include rolling dice or drawing multiple items.

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Probability of a Compound Event

Calculate each outcome's probability, then multiply them together.

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Complementary Events

Two events that are mutually exclusive and one must happen.

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Probability of a Complementary Event

The sum of the probabilities of complementary events equals 1.

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Examples of Complementary Events

Picking a vowel or consonant from the alphabet, drawing a black or red card from a deck.

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Study Notes

  • A trial in probability refers to a single instance of a repeatable experiment.
  • The outcome is the result of a trial.
  • An event is the outcome of one or more trials.

Probability of an Event

  • The probability of an event is calculated when all outcomes are equally likely using the formula: (Number of ways the event can occur) / (Total number of possible outcomes).
  • The probability of an event indicates its likelihood of occurring, ranging from 0 to 1.
  • A probability of 0 means the event is impossible.
  • A probability of 1 means the event is certain.

Simple Events

  • A simple event is an event with one outcome but typically more than one possible outcome.
  • Example simple events: choosing a card from a deck, picking an item of clothing, selecting a letter.
  • The probability of choosing an ace from a 52-card deck is 4/52 ≈ 0.077.
  • If someone has 12 shirts, the probability of choosing a specific shirt is 1/12 ≈ 0.083.
  • The probability of randomly choosing a vowel from the 26 letters of the English alphabet is 5/26 ≈ 0.192.

Compound Events

  • A compound event is an event with more than one outcome.
  • Example compound events: rolling two dice, selecting digits for a lottery, choosing marbles from a bag.
  • The probability of a compound event is calculated by multiplying the probabilities of each outcome.
  • The probability of both outcomes A and B occurring is P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B).
  • Generally, adding more outcomes to a compound event decreases the probability.
  • The probability of rolling a 1 on the first die and a 4, 5, or 6 on the second die when rolling two six-sided dice is (1/6) * (3/6) = 1/12 ≈ 0.083.
  • The probability of a lottery number being 12345, where each digit is randomly chosen from 0-9, is (1/10) * (1/10) * (1/10) * (1/10) * (1/10) = 1/100000 = 0.00001.

Complementary Events

  • Complementary events are mutually exclusive, and one of them must occur.
  • Example complementary events: heads or tails on a coin flip; vowel or consonant; black or red card.
  • The sum of the probabilities of two complementary events is 1.
  • If outcomes A and B are complementary, P(A) + P(B) = 1, so P(B) = 1 - P(A).
  • The probability of choosing a consonant from the English alphabet is 1 - (5/26) = 21/26 ≈ 0.808.
  • The probability of getting heads or tails on a coin flip is 1/2.
  • The probability of choosing a black or red card from a deck of cards is 1/2.

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Description

This lesson defines trials, outcomes, and events in probability. It explains how to calculate the probability of an event when all outcomes are equally likely. Simple events are defined and examples are provided.

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