Understanding Population Dynamics

Introduction to Population

• A population is a group of similar objects or organisms inhabiting a common geographical area.
• Population characteristics are individual demographic traits, like age, sex, race, ethnicity, residence, religion, and marital, occupational, employment, education, and migration statuses.
• These characteristics are essential for analyzing population trends and social dynamics.
• Demography studies the nature, components, and consequences of population dynamics.
• Formal demography focuses on quantitative aspects like birth, death, and migration rates.
• Population studies take a broader approach by examining social, economic, and environmental factors influencing populations.

Focus of Demography/Population Studies

• Population dynamics examines how and why population size and structure change over time.
• Population processes focuses on factors driving population change, including fertility, mortality, and migration.
• Fertility refers to birth rates and reproduction patterns.
• Mortality refers to death rates and life expectancy.
• Migration refers to the movement of people across regions.
• Composition and structure includes the distribution of individuals by age and gender.
• Distribution refers to the geographic spread of a population.
• Migration and urbanization impacts migration trends and the growth of urban areas.
• Demography focuses on the size, distribution, composition/structure, dynamics/change, and determinants/consequences of population change.
• A rate tells how frequently an event occurs within a population over a period of time.
• It also indicates the relationship of one sub-group in a population to another.

Sex Ratio

• The sex ratio is calculated as (number of males / number of females) * 100.
• Count: The absolute number of persons or the number of times a demographic event occurs in a geographical location at a given point in time.
• Proportion tells the relationship of a population subgroup to the entire population.
• Constant is an unchanging arbitrary number by which rates, ratios, and proportions are multiplied to make them more understandable.
• Cohort measure: Statistics are related to a group of individuals sharing a common demographic experience at a given point in time.
• Periodic/synthetic measure gives a snapshot of the entire population.
• Statistics measure events occurring to all parts of the population without accounting for peculiarities within and between subgroups.

Components of Population Change

• Components of population change are factors affecting changes in population size between two periods, including births, deaths, and net migration.
• Births (+) increase population size.
• Deaths (-) decrease population size.
• Net migration includes immigration (+) and emigration (-).
• These changes can be represented by the population balancing equation, also called the component equation, which accounts for the inflow-outflow relationship.

The Population Balancing Equation

• Estimates total population changes over time by attributing changes to births (B), deaths (D), and migration (M) between census periods.
• It helps identify errors in demographic statistics by comparing observed data with calculated population changes.
• Used to calculate any unknown component of population change, such as migration, when the other two (births and deaths) are known.
• The equation's effectiveness depends on the reliability of record-keeping, birth and death registrations, and frontier control data for migration.
• Developed countries often have well-maintained vital registration systems, making their estimates more accurate.
• Developing countries may face challenges due to incomplete or unreliable records.
• Formula: P₁ = P₀ + B - D + I - E, where P₁ = population at the end of the period, P₀ = population at the beginning of the period, B = total live births, D = total deaths, I = total immigration, and E = total emigration.
• Natural increase = births - deaths, representing the total population increase due to changes in births and deaths within a given year.
• Net external movement/net migration is the difference between immigration (in-migration) and emigration (out-migration), represented by I - E.
• Net migration can be negative or positive.
• Net-increase is the sum of natural increase and net migration: (B - D) + (I - E).

Crude Rate of Natural Increase

• If births are greater than deaths, the CRNI is positive.
• If births are less than deaths, the CRNI is negative.
• The CRNI is influenced by the age structure.
• If a large proportion of the population is youth and early childhood, the crude rate of natural increase will be high.
• The smaller the proportion in these groups, the lower the crude rate of natural increase.
• The rate can also be affected by abnormal changes in the age structure, such as war.

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

• The number of live births per 1,000 persons in the mid-year population, indicates the rate at which the population grows in a year due to new births.
• The most widely used measure of fertility, despite being a very poor measure.
• It is crude because the measure is related to the entire population, rather than those at risk of experiencing a birth in a given year.
• Men, children under 14, and women over 49 are not at risk of having a birth.
• Gives the rate at which new persons are added to the population each year through births.
• Advantages: simple to compute, limited data requirements i.e total births and mid-year population and allows for international comparison
• Comparisons of CBRs are only valid when measured over equal time periods, ensuring consistency in analyzing trends.
• Maintaining stable boundaries is crucial when comparing geographical areas, as changes can distort results/misrepresent shifts in birth patterns.
• Not sensitive to population size, allowing for standardization when comparing different populations.
• Developing countries typically have higher CBRs than developed countries, ranging between 10 and 50 for populations at or above replacement fertility levels.
• The CBR can reach around 60 in populations where fertility control is absent, significantly higher birth rates.

General Fertility Rate (GFR)

• The total number of live births in a given year per 1,000 women in their reproductive ages (15-49 years).
• Formula: (total live births / total women 15-49 years) * 1000.
• A period measure that improves upon the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) by relating births only to women at risk of giving birth (ages 15–49) within a given year.
• Not all women are at risk due to infertility, abstinence, or other factors and does not account for fertility pattern variations across different age groups with the reproductive cohort.

Crude Death Rate (CDR)

• Easy to calculate and interpret.
• Requirements consist of total deaths and mid-year population.
• Allows for comparison among countries over a certain period of time.
• Disadvantages:
• Does not account for population structure
• The CDR is affected by the age compositions of two pops.
• Higher mortality among the young & old
• higher CDR for countries with large pops.
• The CDR declines when population health increases
• Can not differentiate death by cause, age, sex etc.

Crude Rate of Natural Increase (CRNI)

• It's a direct indicator of population growth through the difference between births and deaths over a year.
• If the rate is positive, more births than deaths occured, if the opposite- the rate is negative.
• High rate in areas with youth.
• War will cause abnormal shifts.

Total Rate of IN-Migration

• The rate that persons enter a country within a given year
• Cal: Total immigrants/year * 1000 / midyear pop.
• This is misleading because midyear populations consist of people residing in a particular country.
• It illustrates potential change immigrants have on the existing population & the potential change in population size.

Total Rate of Emigration

• Rate at which persons leave a country within a given year.
• Cal: total emigrants/year * 1000 / midyear pop.
• Includes illegal migration.
• Net # of migrants per year/1000 residents.
• Total Immigrants - Total Emigrants
• Negative (ive) or Positive (ve) impact on population growth.

Total Migration Rate

• Gives an indication of the total volume of persons involved in migration within a given year.
• Cal: Total number immigrants + total emigrants * 1000/mid year population

Migration Ratio

• Not a universally measure to measure migration
• Helps measure migration contribution to population growth
• the proportion of population growth due to natural increase.
• Net-Migration/Natural Increase * 100

Error of Closure:

• Assesses accuracy of population census.
• Census population and estimates on a balancing equation reveal its completeness.
• Census over counts are shown with positive value, and under counts are show as a negative value.
• Migration is the cause of errors.

Population Censuses.

• Demographic data consist of - Population census, vital registration systems, migration control, sample, administrative sources and population registers.

Population Census

• Collection, compilation and publication of demographic, social and economic data by a country's census on a specified date.
• The Population census ensure wealth, service and representation is distributed fairly.

Census

• Biblical writings dating on 1491 and 1017 BC.
• 1800 England,
• 1801 Census in Britain,
• 1844 First official census in the British Indies.

Population: Israel 1948

• Individual enumeration
• Universality
• Simultaneity
• Defined periodicity

Characteristic of a Census.

• Individual enumeration: Accurate data collection
• Simultaneity: everyone should be counted at the same time
• Designated: a census day

Universality

• Defined territory
• De jure for usual residency
• De facto for actual presence

Census - Legal basis

• Provision of the Statistic Act
• Approval given by parliament
• Minister tables the census regulations.

Census: Jamaica 2001

• Short vs Long form
• Administrative geography

Enumeration District

Census Taking

• Demarcated by permanent natural/man made feature.
• Area or boundary features
• Reasonable workload for the individual
• Start point is always at the start
• the point where 'x' meet's, 'y.

Census: De Facto and De Jure

• De Facto, country/individual
• De Jure resident population reflection
• Enumeration: forms to households
• Respondant: consultation for accuracy
• Cost Effective.

Census: Canvass Method and Errors.

• Relies on interviews from respondents, in the form of Q&A.
• Geogrpahical area is outdated and areas can be emitted in the count.

Census - Remote

• Volatile, homeless, handicap and young are often emitted.

Content

• Incorrect information
• Accidental - Deliberate
• Problems with age/data information
• Highly motivated/skilled enumerate will fix this

Process Errors

• When Data is inserted
• In the field
• The Data transferred to computers
• Techniques: Identify and Correct.

Civil Registration and Statistics

Civil Registration

• Compulsory and universal, recording of even characteristics.

Vital Statistics

• Collecting Data
• Compiling Data
• Processing Data
• Disseminating Data

Vital Registration System

• Collecting, Compiling and Process

Apgar Score

Quick Assesment

• Heart Rate, Respiration, Muscle Tone, Colour, Response to Stimuli
• Max Score of 10
• Score of 3 = Critically low
• Scored of 4-6 - Low Condition

Census

• Late Registration: 3 mons
• Delayed Registration: 1 yr.
• Birth death acts requirement

Sex Structure.

• Population data is essential.
• The age
• The planning
• Sex data

Sex Structure

• Expansive- High infant/mortality rate.

Population Distribution

• Expansive = Wide in base because of high mortality rate
• Constructure = Large labour force in middle.
• Stationery: balanced.

Population - Young

• Old has 10% population is over 64yrs.
• Median classification

Median

• Useful on ranked/skewed distribution.
• Classification, 3 age groups- Young (under 20), Middle (20-29), Old (30+)

dependency ratio

• economic burden
• higher ratio suggests burden, lower ratio vice-versa

Groups

• Children, Old, population.
• equation and distribution

Support Ratio

• elderly are more economical

Adjustment ratio

• Population 20-64
• Workforce is more available to support elderly.
• Adjustment on the ratio

ACI.

• Measure the elderly- ratio of children.
• Developing countries is under 15.

Sex Ratio

• Males/Females *100
• Constant ratio
• Highest ratio at birth.

Key Sex Stats

• Equality to Gender - Goals.
• Stats can influence planning related to social and economic issues .
• Helps assess equality, to reach SDC goals.
• Imbalances drive migration.

Son Preference

• High mortality in girls 2-5yrs old due to neglect.
• High fertility- more children
• Low fertility- more infusions
• Population SDGs

Population Policy

• Procedures designed in country to achieve optimal population composition, size an distribution.

Goals

• Major in specific area
• Strategies
• The timeframe.

Direct and Indirect Policys

• Influence migration.
• Financial support for incentives

Methods for fertility

• Legal age has to be higher
• Education opportunities
• Limitations increased because size is increased.

Policy impact side effects

• Affects fertility because of school cost.

UN Program in the 1950

• Focus on data collection and less emphasis on family planning activities.

Factors For and against conference

• Ideological issues differences, USA more effective
• Family planning programmes were a primary focus.

1970

• Growing concerns and resources
• explicit concerns. Slow pop strategy.
• Development > pop.

1980s

• Decreased economic conditions and World Pop, conference, Mexico.

1990 and 2000

• Action formulated.

Program Development

• No longer emphasize control, but rather focus on human development.

Jamaica

• Has explicit policies, improved quality of life.

1960,70,80

• Emphasize control.

1983 First

• Explicitly Multi

1983

• Revised and changed in 90's

Jamaica

• Ensures the quality of life due housing, health, nutrition and education.

Fertility

• Expected to decrease overtime
• Require 60% of content, less than 25% is ok.

Gender

• Focus on high quality
• Equal opportunities for women
• participation

Mortality

72 yrs till 75 in 2022,

Mortality

• Lower to death, target is program

Urbanization

• Resources are crucial to environmental harm.
• Promotes sustainable development

Migration

• flow of resources
• reduce unemployment
• skilled power
• cut the family separation cost

population policies

• measure effectiveness
• resources assessment
• time frameworks
• comparison of intervention

PoA thematic areas

• 13 themes including:
• sustained economic development,
• the family,
• reproductive health and development

Achievements

• Policy improvements

Gaps

• Equal empowerment
• Access to health

Dividends

• Decline birth rate
• Rising work age populations

demographic transitions

• from highs and uncontrol. If large youth than transition.

High Dividends

• Healthcare
• Education/Equality

Labour. Supply

• High fertility
• Women enter workforce

Savings benefits and capital

• Income family, better nutrition/education.
• Capitalizing Aids sustainability.
• policies must change.

###Demographic Transition

• The demographic transition theory explains how population growth shifts from high to low fertility and mortality rates.
• identifies factors relating

Warren Thompson

• analyzed data from Europe and the U.S. (1908-1927)

Transition Groups

• Country A, Experienced declining and death rates
• Country B, similar to the trends on Country A
• Country C, high and change in birth rate due to limited resources.

frank and three steps

• 1(High growth potential).
• 2 transitional.
• 3 initial decline.

STage Two

• stage where rates rise
• 1800 the 1920 revolution

Three, Access birth

• higher wages and so forth.

stage four

• birth and death are high
• threatens the shrink work force
• rates will change.

transitions

• over stimulate children reduce with increase in senior folks.

EUROCENTRIC,

• not specific to the timing and more for euro experiences.

Second Transition

• Fertility shifts after decline
• 3 stage:
• Europe, Japan and more

Transition Shifts

• Decline with medical
• transplants increase life
• not good for metal well being!
• high moratlity. Low life expectancy between 2-40yrs.

Transition Colonization

• Increased as diseases spread among the regions.

Diseases

• Heart Diseases with accidents

Counter diseases

• HIV, rising due to accidents with diabetes
• relevance increases

Frederiksen

• high number of infections
• low mortality
• cardiovasular mental heath

Disease Study

• Three groups incl.

Development ageing

• Challenges faced
• high high for economic and social development in country.

Aging:2 levels

Angola, Rwanda and Bangladesh

• The report examines these three countries at different stages of demographic transition.
• Rwanda has successfully integrated family planning into its development strategy to harness the demographic dividend.

Trends: Key trends

• Countries must prepare for dependency and health cost.

Studies

• high economic reliance on oil
• Requires economic
• Economic has significant progress

recommendations

• Improve education, family, and create jobs
• Improve gov and finical
• Encourage international market