Understanding Conspiracy Theories

• Conspiracy theories claim important events are caused by undiscovered conspiracies.

Conspiracy vs. Conspiracy Theory

• Conspiracy involves a secret plan by a group to influence or manipulate events
• Examples include the World Trade Center attack by al-Qaeda (9/11) and the Watergate scandal
• Conspiracy theory is a claim that undiscovered conspiracies caused important events
• Example include the American authorities knowing about the 9/11 attacks in advance

Watergate Scandal

• In 1972, men broke into the Democratic Party's office at the Watergate building in Washington, D.C.
• The men were stealing information and wiretapping phones
• People close to President Nixon were involved, and Nixon tried to cover it up.

Common Themes in Conspiracy Theories

• Alleged secret plot
• A group of conspirators
• Nothing is as it appears; everything is connected
• The world is divided into good and bad
• Scapegoating of people and groups

Attractiveness of Conspiracies

• Conspiracies offer clear explanations for confusing events, providing certainty
• People refuse to believe in coincidences, so they seek meaning in things that shouldn't matter
• Example: Some believe Princess Diana's death was an assassination, not an accident

Conspiracy Theories as Memes

• Conspiracy theories are cultural inventions that pass from one mind to another
• They either survive or die out like a cultural meme
• Conspiracy theories encourage distrust of official versions of events

Spread of Conspiracy Theories

• Conspiracy "memes" spread if they are convincing and fade away if they are not
• Conspiracy theories encourage distrust of the "official" version of events
• If authorities can't provide perfect answers, conspiracy theorists believe it is a cover-up

Why Conspiracy Theories Spread

• Conspiracy theories offer simple, emotionally satisfying explanations for complex events
• People seek answers that give them a sense of control during uncertainty

Societal Crisis

• A societal crisis challenges existing power structures and social norms
• People seek to make sense through narratives, like conspiracy theories
• Examples: the 2008 financial crisis, climate change, 9/11 attacks, COVID-19

Psychological Motivations

• Feelings of powerlessness and vulnerability
• Explaining unlikely events
• Coping with threats
• Focusing blame on conspirators
• Believing big events must have extraordinary causes
• Rejecting ordinary explanations
• Challenging mainstream politics

Historical Conpiracies

• The Great Fire of Rome was believed to have started by Nero
• Jewish conspiracy theories spread after Germany's defeat in WW1
• The U.S. government was believed to be involved in the 9/11 attacks

Conspiracy Theories Involving Jewish People

• Jewish plot to achieve world domination.
• Hitler blamed Jewish people for Germany's defeat in WW1
• Communism was a Jewish conspiracy
• Stalin claimed that Nazism was a Jewish conspiracy during WW2.
• Spread of the plague was blamed on a Jewish conspiracy in Medieval times.

Modern Conspiracy Theories

• Every generation sees its share of conspiracy theories, triggered by societal crises
• There was no increase in the number of the conspiracy theories during the last decade

Historical Conspiracy Peaks

• 1st spike: Second Industrial Revolution (late 19th to early 20th century)
• 2nd spike: the beginning of the Cold War (late 1940s to early 1950s)

First Spike Conspiracies

• Protocols of the Elders of Zion, Bilderberg Group, Freemasons/Illuminati, Jewish banking conspiracy, new world order
• The Titanic conspiracy, the Rothschild Family's Wealth and Power, Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, The Federal Reserve Conspiracy, The Dulce Base Alien Conspiracy.

Second Spike Conspiracies

• Project MKUltra, Manhattan project, Operation paperclip, Operation Northwoods, The Philadelphia experiment, Operation gladio, The UFO cover-up
• JFK assassination, the moon landing hoax, The Red Scare of McCarthyism

Consequences of Conspiracy Theories

• Prejudice: Anti-Semitic attitudes, racism, discrimination against Americans and capitalists
• Health: Questioning of contraception, beliefs about AIDS, anti-vaccine sentiment
• Science denial: Anti-vax, climate change denial
• Political: Reduced intention to vote

Examples of Real Conspiracies

• Pre-ordained verdicts of the Moscow Show Trials of the 1930s
• The Atomic Energy Commission covering up the effects of radioactive fallout
• The second Gulf of Tonkin Incident in the 1960s, The Iran-Contra scandal of the 1980s
• The Weapons of Mass Destruction rationale for the invasion of Iraq in the 2000s

Psychological Mechanisms During Crises

• Sense-making and pattern detection: People seek patterns and explanations
• Illusory pattern perception: Viewing connections where they don't exist
• Confirmation bias: Seeking information to confirm existing beliefs
• Proportionality bias: Assuming large events have equally large causes
• Intentionality bias: Believing negative events are caused by malevolent actors

Research on Uncertainty and Conspiracy Beliefs

• Lack of control and uncertainty trigger conspiracy beliefs
• Inducing feelings of loss of control or uncertainty increases belief in conspiracies

Why Conspiracy Theories Persist

• Cultural Transmission: Conspiracy theories are part of cultural narratives passed down through generations
• Conspiracy theories provides simplified narratives of complex events

Negative Impact of Conspiracy Theories

• Belief in conspiracies can lead to feelings of powerlessness and disengagement
• People exposed to anti-vaccine conspiracies are less likely to vaccinate their children

Monological Belief System

• A person holds strong beliefs and interprets information to reinforce those beliefs without considering different perspectives

Dead and Alive Study

• The study discovered that people can believe in contradictory conspiracy theories
• This is due to distrust in authorities rather than logical consistency

Role of Distrust in Authority

• People endorse contradictory theories because of distrust in official narratives.
• Suspicion of government cover-ups, explanatory coherence theory

Political and Psychological Traits

• Political ideology plays a role; far-left and far-right extremists are prone to conspiratorial thinking
• Psychological traits: paranoia, and high levels of suspicion

Enders's Political Ideology and Belief Study

• Examines how political beliefs influence the likelihood of believing in conspiracy theories.
• People believe in conspiracy theories especially on the far left and right.

Conspiracy Mindset

• Complex and influenced by political, psychological, and social factors.

Limits of the Conspiracy Mindset

• Not all conspiracy theorists have the same degree of belief
• Can be categorized into six themes: reality, outgroup, self, ingroup, political action, and the future

Conspiracy Mindset and Science Denial

• People who believe in conspiracy theories often reject science because they don't trust experts or official institutions

Impacts of Conspiracy Beliefs

• Conspiratorial thinkers are more susceptible to misinformation
• Polarization: Conspiracy theories create an "us vs. them" mindset
• Dangerous behavior: people might act in risky or harmful ways because of their beliefs