18 Questions
Which type of evidence is considered the most important to show that event A causes event B?
Statistical correlation
What is one issue with relying solely on statistical correlation to infer causation?
The correlation may not be real.
What is the danger of assuming causation based on a correlation that is found?
It may result in false conclusions.
In the context of evidence evaluation, why might people incorrectly believe there is a real correlation between two events?
Confirmation bias leading to selective data interpretation
What is one notable limitation of using statistical correlation to establish causation?
It can overlook other contributing factors.
Why is it essential to consider factors beyond statistical correlation when inferring causation?
To ensure robust and valid conclusions
What is the Latin term used to describe the fallacy of assuming that just because event X preceded event Y, X caused Y?
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
In the example provided, what is the argument based on the decrease in violent crime after the implementation of longer prison sentences an example of?
Non causa pro causa
Why does the author mention that many other possible causal factors need to be considered in evaluating the decrease in violent crime?
To caution against assuming a causal connection based solely on temporal succession
What does the author suggest is the problem with assuming that longer prison sentences caused the decrease in violent crime?
It confuses correlation with causation
Which type of reasoning is most likely behind superstitions, according to the text?
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
What distinguishes non causa pro causa fallacy from post hoc, ergo propter hoc?
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc involves mistaking the cause for the effect
What is the primary reason for caution when observing a correlation between two factors A and B?
The likelihood of a third factor C causing both A and B.
What is the fallacy of false cause primarily related to?
Dependence on imaginary causal relationships.
Why is it essential to ask critical questions before concluding causality from observed correlations?
To avoid the false cause fallacy.
In what situation does the false cause fallacy typically arise?
When the conclusion depends on an assumed causal link that is likely non-existent.
What should a reader or listener be able to identify in an argument suspected of committing the false cause fallacy?
An assumption that X causes Y despite lack of evidence.
Why is it important to be cautious when linking two factors through a correlation?
To prevent overestimating a causal relationship due to observed correlation.
Test your knowledge on the concept of causality and statistical correlation between events. Explore how one state of affairs can cause another and the importance of statistical evidence in establishing causation.
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