Time Series Analysis - STS 201/STS Dept - Dr. A.A.Akintunde
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Questions and Answers

What is the purpose of dividing each quarterly moving total by 4 in column 4?

  • To compute the moving averages for all quarters
  • To determine the four-quarter moving total (correct)
  • To find the centered moving average in column 6
  • To calculate the specific seasonal for each quarter

    • How is the specific seasonal for each quarter computed?

  • By dividing the sales in column 3 by the centered moving average in column 6 (correct)
  • By multiplying the sales in column 3 with the centered moving average in column 6
  • By finding the average of all the sales in column 3
  • By subtracting the sales in column 3 from the centered moving average in column 6

    • What does the specific seasonal value represent?

  • The sum of all sales in a quarter
  • The ratio of the original time series value to the moving average (correct)
  • The average of all moving averages
  • The difference between the actual sales and the moving average

    • How is the first centered moving average calculated?

    <p>(8.500 + 8.450) / 2</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the purpose of the moving-average method in time series analysis?

    <p>To measure the seasonal fluctuation and smooth the trend</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Where are centered moving averages positioned according to the text?

    <p>On a particular quarter</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a disadvantage of the moving-average method in time series analysis?

    <p>It generates cycles or movements not present in the original data</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When applying the moving-average method to a time series, what kind of data pattern should be present?

    <p>A definite rhythmic pattern of fluctuations</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In time series analysis, what does the least squares method do?

    <p>Expresses the trend in terms of a mathematical equation</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which computation method involves 'moving' arithmetic mean values through a time series?

    <p>Moving-average method</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What effect does applying the moving-average method have on data at the beginning and end of a time series?

    <p>Data at the beginning and end are lost</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a time series?

    <p>A set of quantitative observations collected over a period of time</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is an example of time series data?

    <p>Average scores in STS 201 for the past 10 years</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is meant by secular trend or regular variation in a time series?

    <p>General direction of a time series over a long period of time</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which component of a time series represents the long-term movement of the data?

    <p>Trend</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What are some factors that may contribute to variations in a time series?

    <p>Social, economic, climatic, psychological, or accidental factors</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If a time series has an increasing long-term movement, what type of trend does it exhibit?

    <p>Upward trend</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How is the three-period moving average calculated?

    <p>By finding the average of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd numbers</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the process to calculate the five-period moving average?

    <p>Summing the first 5 numbers and dividing by 5 to find the average</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a challenge when calculating even-numbered moving averages?

    <p>Centering the moving totals with no central time period</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the process of 'exhausting the numbers' refer to in moving average calculations?

    <p>Using all available data points to calculate a single average</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In a three-period moving average, what numbers are used for calculating the second moving average?

    <p>2nd, 3rd, and 4th numbers</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary difference between three-period and five-period moving averages in terms of calculation process?

    <p>Three-period averages consider fewer data points than five-period averages</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the four-quarter moving average for sales in the year 2017?

    <p>$9.463 million</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In which season of 2019 did the sales reach their highest point?

    <p>Summer</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What was the specific seasonal value for Fall in 2018?

    <p>0.801</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What was the total sales amount during Spring and Summer of 2017?

    <p>$29.7 million</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What was the centered moving average for sales in Winter of 2016?

    <p>$8.450 million</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which year had the highest total sales amount among 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019?

    <p>2019</p> Signup and view all the answers

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