ECON 440: Lecture 10 - Evidence on time preferences, commitment
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Questions and Answers

How do present-biased preferences affect an individual's decision-making regarding future actions?

  • They lead to consistent decision-making without needing commitments.
  • They can create a greater opportunity for immediate gratification.
  • They allow restrictions that improve welfare in the long run. (correct)
  • They cause individuals to be more risk-averse in future planning.
  • In the example of a sophisticated time-inconsistent student, what is the initial action taken during the procrastination?

  • Watching an okay movie in the second week.
  • Attending a really bad movie. (correct)
  • Avoiding all distractions and focusing on studies.
  • Completing the paper immediately.
  • What characterizes a commitment device like Stickk.com?

  • A flexible agreement that can be renegotiated at any time.
  • An informal arrangement without financial stakes.
  • A binding contract that imposes loss if goals are not achieved. (correct)
  • A voluntary system that encourages social support among users.
  • What was the outcome of the commitment savings product designed in the Philippines?

    <p>There was an overall 28% uptake of the commitment device.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What was one of the main findings related to women and the commitment device developed in Ashraf et al (2006)?

    <p>Women showed an increase of 16 percentage points in device uptake when identified as time-inconsistent.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the main parameter being measured in the Marshmallow Test?

    <p>Beta (β)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What correlation was discovered between waiting time and SAT scores in the Marshmallow Test?

    <p>Strong positive correlation</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the T3 factor represent according to the data provided?

    <p>A measure of correlation between two variables</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What did the field evidence by Meier and Sprenger focus on?

    <p>Immediate versus delayed monetary rewards</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which range of values is most likely represented by DF1 in the first activity?

    <p>0.80 to 1.00</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What were the estimates of beta (β) in Meier and Sprenger’s results?

    <p>Between 0.672 and 0.792</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following factors could lead to potential problems in the multiple price list (MPL) approach?

    <p>Assumption of constant transaction costs</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the context of the two activities, what does a higher percent in the graphs signify?

    <p>A stronger relationship between factors</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the significance of comparing the data from different months?

    <p>To observe trends or changes over time</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the stability of estimates between 2007 and 2008 suggest about time preferences?

    <p>They remain remarkably stable</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Within the context of Meier and Sprenger's study, what does δ represent?

    <p>The rate of decay of future rewards</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How is the structure of DF3 different from DF1 and DF2?

    <p>It focuses on a different time period</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the Marshmallow Test, how much of an increase in SAT math scores was indicated for waiting an additional 5 minutes?

    <p>40 points</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What conclusion can be drawn about the performance in the second half as compared to the first half?

    <p>Performance improved</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What could a flat line in the percentage graphs indicate?

    <p>No changes in performance whatsoever</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How many preschoolers were involved in the original Marshmallow Test conducted by Mischel et al?

    <p>35</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What was a significant finding regarding early versus later payments in Meier and Sprenger's research?

    <p>Immediate early rewards were more appealing</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What trend might be observed between the first trimester and second trimester?

    <p>Minimal differences between assessments</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why might the activity graphs be important for decision-making?

    <p>They summarize the potential impacts of changes in data</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What might be the purpose of using various metrics like DF1, DF2, and DF3 across different months?

    <p>To ensure thorough examination of periods</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What characteristic of the standard exponential discounting model limits its ability to represent human behavior in evaluating future outcomes?

    <p>It assumes a constant discount factor across all periods.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the Moblab Activity 4, what was the primary choice participants had to make regarding their time preference?

    <p>Choosing between $100 today and an amount in the future.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What aspect distinguishes the behavioral model from the standard exponential model regarding time preference?

    <p>It treats the present differently from all future periods.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In Moblab Activity 5, how was the payment structure presented to participants?

    <p>As weekly payments over different specified durations.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the cross-correlation table reveal about the discount factors in Moblab Activity 4 and 5?

    <p>There is a significant correlation between discount factors for Task 1 across activities.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What type of tasks were included in the Moblab Activities to explore time preference?

    <p>Comparative analysis of immediate versus delayed financial returns.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does the behavioral model address impatience differently than the standard exponential discounting model?

    <p>It allows for varying evaluations of immediate versus future rewards.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which task in Moblab Activity 4 required participants to choose between consumption at two separate future points?

    <p>Old Task 2 comparing consumption across two consecutive months.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What financial concept primarily underlies the choices presented in Moblab Activities 4 and 5?

    <p>Time value of money.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following statements correctly describes the discount factors across tasks in the provided correlations?

    <p>The first Task discount factor had the highest correlation with itself.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the discount factor (δ) when a person is indifferent between receiving $105 in one month and $100 today, assuming risk neutrality?

    <p>0.95</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the context of risk neutrality, how is it calculated when the utility function is u(c) = c?

    <p>By equating the present value to the future value</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the calculation of δ = 0.98 indicate about a person's risk preferences when their utility function is u(c) = c^0.5?

    <p>They are more risk-averse</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why does the second method of calculation not depend on risk preferences?

    <p>It eliminates the utility function from consideration</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How much would a risk-averse person need to be paid today to delay receiving $100 for one month if δ = 0.95?

    <p>$110.25</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What characteristic of exponential discounting is highlighted in the scenario of receiving $20 weekly over two periods?

    <p>It allows for preference in the timing of cash flows without changing utility</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When analyzing impatience in decision-making, what does a higher rate of $ ext{δ}$ signify?

    <p>Higher valuation of future cash flows</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What relationship is demonstrated by the equation P24 i−1 δ i−1 (u(c + 20) − u(c)) = P52 i=25 δ i−1 (u(c + 20) − u(c))?

    <p>It illustrates the cancellation of δ across multiple periods</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Study Notes

    Discount Rate Calculations

    • Discount factor calculation assumes that individuals discount future rewards exponentially.
    • The first discount rate calculation assumes risk-neutral preferences.
    • The second discount rate calculation does not make any assumptions about risk preferences.

    Time Preference Activities

    • Moblab Activity 4: Participants choose between receiving $100 today or a larger amount in the future. Two variations involve different time periods.
    • Moblab Activity 5: Participants chose between two payment plans for $20 per week for a number of weeks. Both plans have the same total payment but differ in the timing of the payments.

    Correlations Across Tasks

    • There are positive correlations between the discount factors observed in different time preference tasks.
    • This suggests that individuals who are more impatient in one task are also likely to be more impatient in other tasks.

    Evidence on Time Preferences

    • The Marshmallow Test suggests that individuals who delay gratification are more successful in later life, as measured by higher SAT scores.
    • The Meier and Sprenger study found that individuals are more likely to take an immediate smaller reward when the reward is immediate.
    • The Meier and Sprenger study found that estimates of present bias parameter (β) and monthly discount factor (δ) were stable over time.
    • Commitment savings products, like SEED in the Philippines, can be effective in encouraging individuals to save more.
    • Websites like Stickk.com provide a platform for making binding agreements with oneself, helping individuals achieve their goals.

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    Econ 440: Lecture 10 PDF

    Description

    Explore the concepts of discount rates and time preferences through various activities and tasks. This quiz examines the relationships between individuals' choices and their patience across different scenarios, including the famous Marshmallow Test. Delve into the evidence and theories behind how people value future rewards compared to immediate gains.

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